Salt Lake City: Official Development News Thread - Part 5

[Reeder113]

How is the current economic outlook going to affect all of these buildings going up downtown? Is it possible that they don't finish some of the buildings that have already started?

[Utah_Dave]

^^^^

All good questions. I think the biggest factor will be the time frame an effective treatment/vaccine can be developed and how that will relieve the pressure on the economy. There are many variables both locally, nationally and worldwide that will cause all sorts of unforeseen negative effects that will differ from location to location.

Throw into this politics and world wide politics, the elections and how Americans react as time passes, I would have a hard time even guessing what the outcome will be. Long term I think everything will be fine overall however some segments of the economy and segments of the economy will be hit harder then others.

Delays would not be surprising in the least. However interest rates and how industries feel the government will support there sectors will loom large on how long the delays are. I just drove by a few sites and tower 8 and the CCH sites were active. I haven’t been able to see the action at the Richie development though

[Utah_Dave]

Last but not least is how will demand be effected 3 months, 6 months, 1 year and so forth to each type of development. These types of questions will weight heavily on these developments and the capital required to get them moving

[Always Sunny in SLC]

Originally Posted by Utah_Dave

Last but not least is how will demand be effected 3 months, 6 months, 1 year and so forth to each type of development. These types of questions will weight heavily on these developments and the capital required to get them moving

Agreed. If capital markets freeze up or demand drops significantly, then most will halt. I don’t expect either.

[Atlas]

I'm no expert but I don't think this will be another 2008 recession. The cause this time around is external instead of systemic, so I'd expect things to recover more quickly once the situation normalizes. I could be totally wrong though.

[Blah_Amazing]

Originally Posted by Atlas

I'm no expert but I don't think this will be another 2008 recession. The cause this time around is external instead of systemic, so I'd expect things to recover more quickly once the situation normalizes. I could be totally wrong though.

Personally, I agree with this. The people on wall street (not that they are always right or anything) think that even if the country dips into recession, it would only be briefly (a quarter or two) and would not be signficant. Since Utah outperforms the country in GDP growth, it is likely that the state will not fall into recession at all.

It is also important to remember that there is genuine demand for housing behind all of this construction and development. It isn't speculators buying up dozens of properties like in many bigger cities, it is real population growth that is pushing demand up. Hopefully, the out-of-state developers and investors realize that. If they do, it could actually boost Utah's growth longer term as we could become a potential safe haven for investment and development (though the likelyhood that many people outside of Utah even think about Utah at all is pretty slim).

At worst I think we see slowing and delay of construction during the peak of this outbreak, but I think the likelyhood that we see most projects completed is still very high.

[bob rulz]

Coronavirus will pass, it's just a matter of how bad it will get and how long it will take.

My concern is that the inadequate American healthcare system and lag in testing means that things are going to get a whole lot worse than they are right now. I have 0 faith in this administration to handle it properly, and Americans love their freedom and independence and it might be hard to convince them to abide by restrictions.

Hopefully the preventive measures being taken already will prevent us from becoming the next Italy. I think Utah is ahead of the curve relatively speaking, but that's probably just because we're getting hit later than most places.

[delts145]

Originally Posted by StevenF

Now if only we can get those power lines buried along 6th South.

I've been dreaming of that happening for years now. Hopefully, with all the new developments coming up for 600 S. it will finally happen.

[delts145]

Originally Posted by scottharding

Lol, I'm currently in Europe. If I'm stuck here. thanks for the good times Salt Lakers!

Keep us updated Scott on your current experience there and dealing with Corona, or did you have to pack up and return? Seems like the situation changes daily.

[scottharding]

Originally Posted by delts145

Keep us updated Scott on your current experience there and dealing with Corona, or did you have to pack up and return? Seems like the situation changes daily.

I made it home. I was fortunate to be just ahead of the rush. I was scheduled to come home on Friday anyway, hours before the "deadline." So my flight went on as scheduled, though they used a larger plane to fit the many people who were pushing up their flights. Seeing what I've seen on with the major airports yesterday, I feel very lucky to have made it back with ease.

What was particularly interesting was to witness the misinformation about the European ban from the other side. I was getting the info pretty clearly from the European authorities and news outlets, and feeling pretty calm about it, while over here, I had friends and family freaking out and trying to get a hold of me thinking the airports were shutting down, planes were being grounded, goods and trade was ceasing, and even one who thought my passport would be seized.

Our federal government is bungling this at every turn. I've been pleasantly surprised to see how it's being handled here in Utah. I think our state leaders are doing fairly well, in spite of the Trump administration. Because-- not to diminish the seriousness of the pandemic-- the spread of hysteria is the scarier outbreak.

[delts145]

I keep wondering when it's going to hit the fan here in California. The homeless situation was already out of control and experts are saying that the homeless will be the most likely to catch and carry the virus. If there is a disaster waiting to happen here in the U.S. it's Los Angeles and San Francisco.

[Utah_Dave]

I’m hopeful but I am becoming less and less hopeful that we can slow this thing down and not overwhelm the health care system. I meet with many people during the day and I have a lot of coworkers. I’m sad to say if the key is to slow the disease down, Utahns are failing at this moment in general and can and should be doing far better then we are. It’s difficult to describe why we can’t grasp simple concepts, perhaps people are embarrassed to be seen not following the crowd. I don’t know but I feel the majority of people really are “sheep like” and need to see others taking steps to reduce transmission before they are comfortable doing the same.

Sorry for my Rant. It’s safer to do it here.

[meman]

A Tower Crane was being unloaded at the CCH site today!

[SLC PopPunk]

Tower 8 appears to be higher than Harmons now: https://imgur.com/a/iqPjrFC

Liberty Sky is coming along as well: https://imgur.com/a/Qb2p4Tg

[FullCircle]

Great updates! Thanks everyone.

[Marvland]

From the front lines, after 72 hours of bedlam, and after laying off multiple staffs, my entire view of this virus situation has completely shifted. In the last 24 hours tens of thousands of people lost their jobs in this valley. All of the food and beverage establishments are effectively closed. Many will never re open. Any project that was unfinished or close to finished is in dire shape. And this thing has just begun. Shelter in Place is coming next. Buckle up. This has changed everything. I think the possibility of major project cancellations is certain. If the government doesn't get real and push the big red PAUSE (freeze credit) button soon, then the fires will start. Yes, it's that bad in the short to medium term. We will emerge, but we will be changed.

Longer term I'm more optimistic. We will emerge with an amazing lending environment, loose labor, lots of raw materials and a supercharged manufacturing base (anybody want their widgets or critical supply chain items produced in China any more?). But the cream has been removed, yes even for the ultra wealthy. We will have to earn it back, but we get away with our lives this time. Our get out of jail free card. Hopefully we learn our lessons before a worse one comes (and it will). Sorry guys. This market is over for now. But I think the rebound will be something to behold.

[Blah_Amazing]

Hoping all of you are safe after the earthquakes.

[Blah_Amazing]

Originally Posted by Marvland

From the front lines, after 72 hours of bedlam, and after laying off multiple staffs, my entire view of this virus situation has completely shifted. In the last 24 hours tens of thousands of people lost their jobs in this valley. All of the food and beverage establishments are effectively closed. Many will never re open. Any project that was unfinished or close to finished is in dire shape. And this thing has just begun. Shelter in Place is coming next. Buckle up. This has changed everything. I think the possibility of major project cancellations is certain. If the government doesn't get real and push the big red PAUSE (freeze credit) button soon, then the fires will start. Yes, it's that bad in the short to medium term. We will emerge, but we will be changed.

Longer term I'm more optimistic. We will emerge with an amazing lending environment, loose labor, lots of raw materials and a supercharged manufacturing base (anybody want their widgets or critical supply chain items produced in China any more?). But the cream has been removed, yes even for the ultra wealthy. We will have to earn it back, but we get away with our lives this time. Our get out of jail free card. Hopefully we learn our lessons before a worse one comes (and it will). Sorry guys. This market is over for now. But I think the rebound will be something to behold.

I now agree with you in the short term. But if this thing lasts until August, I think we are going to experience a fundamental shift in the economy. Think about it. With so many people now staying and working from home, how many of them (when this crisis is over) would prefer to continue working that way. If the crisis is over in a month, I think things may return to normal. However, if it lasts longer than that, many businesses may choose to just have their employees telecommute from now on rather than maintaing expensive office leases. Especially if everyone has gotten used to a telecommuting and stay-at-home lifestyle. The imacts this could have on the fate of future office buildings downtown could be severe. I think residential will likely bounce back though, just from the complete lack of supply in our local markets.

[Blah_Amazing]

Maybe we will get lucky and the LDS Church decides to move forward with The Cascade after all.

[Orlando]

Originally Posted by Marvland

From the front lines, after 72 hours of bedlam, and after laying off multiple staffs, my entire view of this virus situation has completely shifted. In the last 24 hours tens of thousands of people lost their jobs in this valley. All of the food and beverage establishments are effectively closed. Many will never re open. Any project that was unfinished or close to finished is in dire shape. And this thing has just begun. Shelter in Place is coming next. Buckle up. This has changed everything. I think the possibility of major project cancellations is certain. If the government doesn't get real and push the big red PAUSE (freeze credit) button soon, then the fires will start. Yes, it's that bad in the short to medium term. We will emerge, but we will be changed.

Longer term I'm more optimistic. We will emerge with an amazing lending environment, loose labor, lots of raw materials and a supercharged manufacturing base (anybody want their widgets or critical supply chain items produced in China any more?). But the cream has been removed, yes even for the ultra wealthy. We will have to earn it back, but we get away with our lives this time. Our get out of jail free card. Hopefully we learn our lessons before a worse one comes (and it will). Sorry guys. This market is over for now. But I think the rebound will be something to behold.

Wow. I disagree. That is such a dire and extreme outlook, IMO. This is just a temporary issue which will only slow things down for a little bit. This is not going to be another 2008 recession.