Alberta Population Growth - Page 9

Chadillaccc · #**161** Posted **Jul 17, 2014, 5:28 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by DizzyEdge

any idea what Lethbridge's CMA population would be if it was a CMA now?

About 110 000 people. Comparable to Peterborough. I believe it is the only region being made into a CMA in the next census.

Jets4Life · #**162** Posted **Jul 17, 2014, 12:39 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chadillaccc

About 110 000 people. Comparable to Peterborough. I believe it is the only region being made into a CMA in the next census.

Why not Red Deer? It has more people than Lethbridge, and the area surrounding it dwarfs the population of the Lethbridge area.

Chadillaccc · #**163** Posted **Jul 17, 2014, 1:42 PM**

Yes I have always wondered that myself. Red Deer's region is very clearly defined, and the city is larger, yet StatsCan made only Lethbridge a CA in the previous census. This means they're likely to only add Lethbridge as a CMA in the next census, if any at all.

In the 2021 census a lot of new CMAs will be created, including(most likely):

Red Deer
Kamloops
Nanaimo
Fredericton
Chilliwack

and possibly:
Belleville
Saint-Jean-sur-Richelieu

Chadillaccc · #**164** Posted **Jul 17, 2014, 3:29 PM**

I estimate that the next quarterly provincial population estimate (which happens to be the official yearly estimate) will be around 4 150 000. It's amazing to think the province could be over 5 million in less than 10 years.

Chadillaccc · #**165** Posted **Jul 22, 2014, 2:41 PM**

So after Red Deer and Lethbridge each hit 100 000 (likely in 2015 and 2018 respectively) which city do you think will hit 100 000 next?

Currently St. Albert is the next closest, but it is growing quite slow by comparison to the next largest, Airdrie. I'd probably put my money on Airdrie, even though St. Albert is a superior city and suburb in every single way.

MalcolmTucker · #**166** Posted **Jul 22, 2014, 8:17 PM**

The surrounding communities are coming up on their water limits. Strathmore is on a new temporary agreement iirc and Airdrie is trying to get a new one. The goal is to update the Master Servicing Agreements for Cochrane, Strathmore, and Airdrie but that hasn't happended yet. Some history: http://www.slideshare.net/CalgaryReg...date-2013-0322

ue · #**167** Posted **Jul 22, 2014, 8:22 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chadillaccc

So after Red Deer and Lethbridge each hit 100 000 (likely in 2015 and 2018 respectively) which city do you think will hit 100 000 next?

Currently St. Albert is the next closest, but it is growing quite slow by comparison to the next largest, Airdrie. I'd probably put my money on Airdrie, even though St. Albert is a superior city and suburb in every single way.

Yeah, St. Albert is like Cochrane and Chestermere wrapped up into a larger package.

But Airdrie has insane growth and I won't be surprised when it overtakes St. Albert. Technically not a city, but there is also Sherwood Park (65,000) which is growing faster than St. Albert and could reach 100,000 next.

But outside of the city limits, most of Edmonton's suburban growth appears to be taking hold in the smaller suburbs right now, like Spruce Grove and Leduc, not the larger ones like St. Albert and Sherwood Park.

TriWolf · #**168** Posted **Jul 24, 2014, 6:36 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by ue

Yeah, St. Albert is like Cochrane and Chestermere wrapped up into a larger package.

But Airdrie has insane growth and I won't be surprised when it overtakes St. Albert. Technically not a city, but there is also Sherwood Park (65,000) which is growing faster than St. Albert and could reach 100,000 next.

But outside of the city limits, most of Edmonton's suburban growth appears to be taking hold in the smaller suburbs right now, like Spruce Grove and Leduc, not the larger ones like St. Albert and Sherwood Park.

Except Sherwood Park is not a city.

ue · #**169** Posted **Jul 24, 2014, 6:58 AM**

^ So? That just highlights the arbitrariness of these things. Does being officially titled a hamlet negate Sherwood Park's presence? Do businesses simply skip it because it is not technically a "city"?

There are towns in Alberta larger than our smallest cities. Should we not be ranking things by taking everything into consideration, not just one column?

Sherwood Park is growing faster than St. Albert, but its population isn't much ahead of St. Albert. It also isn't experiencing the insane growth of Airdrie, so I wouldn't be surprised if Airdrie beats both to the punch.

In the Calgary CMA, it seems growth is concentrated in the NW, far south, and in Airdrie. In the Edmonton CMA, it growth is concentrated on the southside (SW especially), the west end, and in smaller burgs like Leduc, Beaumont, and Spruce Grove.

Airboy · #**170** Posted **Jul 24, 2014, 4:13 PM**

St Albert only grew 3.37%. However with the amount of large apartment and condo complexes under construction right now I would expect a big jump.

http://www.stalbertgazette.com/artic...7239992/-1/sag

TriWolf · #**171** Posted **Jul 24, 2014, 9:15 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by ue

^ So? That just highlights the arbitrariness of these things. Does being officially titled a hamlet negate Sherwood Park's presence? Do businesses simply skip it because it is not technically a "city"?

There are towns in Alberta larger than our smallest cities. Should we not be ranking things by taking everything into consideration, not just one column?

Sherwood Park is growing faster than St. Albert, but its population isn't much ahead of St. Albert. It also isn't experiencing the insane growth of Airdrie, so I wouldn't be surprised if Airdrie beats both to the punch.

In the Calgary CMA, it seems growth is concentrated in the NW, far south, and in Airdrie. In the Edmonton CMA, it growth is concentrated on the southside (SW especially), the west end, and in smaller burgs like Leduc, Beaumont, and Spruce Grove.

The discussion is which Albertan city will reach 100,000 next, rather than which Albertan 'place' will reach 100,000

Chadillaccc · #**172** Posted **Jul 25, 2014, 12:20 AM**

As long as it's an urban area, that's all that matters.

Chadillaccc · #**173** Posted **Jul 25, 2014, 2:59 PM**

According to the most recent projections released, there will be around 700 000 people north of Edmonton by 2041! That's more than the population of Newfoundland & Labrador and Prince Edward Island combined.

That will be up from the current Northern Alberta population of around 450 000.

Also, by this period, Edmonton will be between 2 and 2.5 million and Calgary should be between 2.5 and 2.9 million. Even under the low growth scenario, Calgary will be at 2 million by 2034, and Edmonton at 1.9 million by 2041. Pretty amazing.

lubicon · #**174** Posted **Jul 25, 2014, 7:01 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chadillaccc

As long as it's an urban area, that's all that matters.

If that's the case then it may very well be Ft McMurray.

Doug · #**175** Posted **Jul 25, 2014, 11:00 PM**

Order in which AB municipalities will likely hit 100K:
1) Ft. Mac
2) Red Deer
3) Lethbridge
4) Airdrie
5) Sherwood Park
6) St. Albert

After that is anyone's guess. I suspect it will be Chestermere

thegx · #**176** Posted **Jul 25, 2014, 11:36 PM**

Chestermere would probably get annexed first. I'd say Grande Prairie.

TriWolf · #**177** Posted **Jul 26, 2014, 8:29 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Doug

Order in which AB municipalities will likely hit 100K:
1) Ft. Mac
2) Red Deer
3) Lethbridge
4) Airdrie
5) Sherwood Park
6) St. Albert

After that is anyone's guess. I suspect it will be Chestermere

Red Deer is already at 98,600 and growing by about 1,500 per year. Lethbridge is at 93,000 and growing by 2,000 to 3,000 per year. So unless Fort McMurray has grown by 40,000 people in just 3 years, it's not likely to beat out Red Deer or Lethbridge. I know it's growing amazingly fast, but unless you're counting the work camps, 100,000 before Red Deer and/or Lethbridge doesn't seem very likely.

kel · #**178** Posted **Jul 27, 2014, 10:45 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spoolmak

So, does that include people that work in Alberta but live elsewhere? I have friends and family that work there, but call BC home. Technically they eat sleep and shit alberta for 3 weeks every month, but they come back home and spend their money.

The company I work for has 23 employees. 11 of these employees live in either Saskatchewan or B.C and go back home for one week a month and do not keep a permanent address in Edmonton. Not one of them answered the census even though they all rent houses or apartments. I would like to know the actual population, I'm sure Edmonton and Calgary could add a significant number to their populations if it counted "migrant Workers" that spend over half their time living in either city.

MalcolmTucker · #**179** Posted **Jul 27, 2014, 11:29 PM**

If they are home in the civic census period I think they would count towards that total. As for national census I know at one point if you were staying in a hotel on a particular day, that is where you were recorded. Hence the differences between the two census.

Chadillaccc · #**180** Posted **Jul 31, 2014, 1:47 AM**

Yes, Fort Mac is nowhere near 100 000 (currently ~80 000), while both Lethbridge and Red Deer are both well past 90 000... so Fort Mac will most certainly not be the first to hit 100 000.

It might beat Lethbridge, but definitely not Red Deer.