Posted Jan 14, 2017, 7:42 PM
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Join Date: Dec 2010
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What's the typical range of murder rates for different parts of your metro areas?
In order to have a sufficient sample size, lets require an area that had a minimum of 10 murders, or covering an area/time period of at least 500,000 person-years.
Toronto as an example:
Halton Region has the lowest rate, with about 540,000 people, and 1 homicide in 2016, for a rate of 0.2. There were 2 homicides in 2015, and 1 in 2014.
Jane Finch has about 48,000 people, and zero homicides in 2015*... so sample size is too small. From 2009-2011 though, there were 10 homicides, for a rate of 6.9. Homicides there seem to have gone down a bit in recent years, and gone up elsewhere though, so other areas also have rates of around 5-8, like Emery, North-Central Etobicoke (Scarlett-Dixon Rd corridor), Rexdale and Malton.
Ajax is a fairly average middle class suburb, maybe a bit safer than average, with 4 homicides from 2005-2010 and a population of about 100,000 (during those years). 6 years x 100,000 people = 600,000 person-years so that's a good enough sample size, and over that period the homicide rate averages to 0.7.
So for Toronto the range is about 0.2 to 7, with an average of about 1-2.
*it's difficult to find murders mapped by neighbourhood for Toronto for each year, I could only find 2005-2011 and 2015.
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