CHICAGO | General Developments

[marothisu]

Originally Posted by the urban politician

Surprised nobody posted Greg Hinz's article about ACS data for Chicago's population.

Props to Marothisu for posting it first, but lots of great stuff there.

Central area population growth is actually accelerating, and is now double the rate that it was 2000-2010. Craziness, although not surprising

Yep. Some of us data nerds in the area crunching these numbers. I was looking at some median household income data - change from 2014 to 2015 in some tracts look not very trustworthy? Or just hard to believe. There were a few handfuls of tracts which increased their median household income by like $20K - $30K in a year, and some that lost around that much too (maybe not as many that gained). Kind of crazy. Am curious as of the mean household income gains in those tracts.

[sentinel]

Originally Posted by marothisu

Yep. Some of us data nerds in the area crunching these numbers. I was looking at some median household income data - change from 2014 to 2015 in some tracts look not very trustworthy? Or just hard to believe. There were a few handfuls of tracts which increased their median household income by like $20K - $30K in a year, and some that lost around that much too (maybe not as many that gained). Kind of crazy. Am curious as of the mean household income gains in those tracts.

Doing the math from Hinz's article, there was a net gain of 14,221 people...?

[marothisu]

Originally Posted by sentinel

Doing the math from Hinz's article, there was a net gain of 14,221 people...?

Somewhere around there... basically the areas like Englewood, West Englewood, GGC, Auburn Gresham, etc are erasing the gains of the central area/north side. It's completely a tale of two cities. According to my calculations, the north side and central area together, with a population over 1.3 million people has increased 3.6% in population since 2010. That's about 1% less than all of NYC and a little less than Indianapolis. Not amazing, but certainly not terrible. On the flip side, the big area that is Englewood et al decreased by a little over 9% which is bad. That area has a population of about 485,000.

[the urban politician]

So Chicago's core, already the fastest growing in the country from 2000-2010, is now growing double as fast? And incomes going up?

I wish the media would talk about this instead of all the negatives all of the time.

[emathias]

Nice leprechauns ...

Originally Posted by spyguy

...
2016 Rice - 8 units

...

[PKDickman]

Originally Posted by marothisu

Yep. Some of us data nerds in the area crunching these numbers. I was looking at some median household income data - change from 2014 to 2015 in some tracts look not very trustworthy? Or just hard to believe. There were a few handfuls of tracts which increased their median household income by like $20K - $30K in a year, and some that lost around that much too (maybe not as many that gained). Kind of crazy. Am curious as of the mean household income gains in those tracts.

At the tract level you have a hard time getting an honest conclusion from the estimates, because the margin of error swamps any changes over the previous year.

Even at the Community area level it's still daunting.
For the instance, the Logan Square population shows an increase of 494, but when you figure the MOE, that number is +-1762.

[Vlajos]

Originally Posted by PKDickman

At the tract level you have a hard time getting an honest conclusion from the estimates, because the margin of error swamps any changes over the previous year.

Even at the Community area level it's still daunting.
For the instance, the Logan Square population shows an increase of 494, but when you figure the MOE, that number is +-1762.

Generally, Chicago metro median income is rising, which is the most important. Of course, driving down to small sub sections will have more margin for error.

[marothisu]

Originally Posted by PKDickman

At the tract level you have a hard time getting an honest conclusion from the estimates, because the margin of error swamps any changes over the previous year.

Even at the Community area level it's still daunting.
For the instance, the Logan Square population shows an increase of 494, but when you figure the MOE, that number is +-1762.

Yep. You have to take this stuff with a grain of salt. It is afterall just estimates. They might be in a way accurate, but maybe not. The 2010 ACS under estimated some tracts downtown really badly for example. The estimates were off by something like 4000 people in Near North Side and I think 10,000 people in the Loop. Depending on what you compare the 2015 data to, the central area either gained 20K some people or 40K some people. Either way it's great growth. At the worst case, it's basically at the same growth rate as 2000-2010. At best case, it's double.

[ithakas]

The news from the ACS study about the growth downtown seems to reflect what some of us were recently discussing anecdotally about the increasing vibrancy of downtown and the Loop in particular.

Interestingly, it seems like there was a lot less new construction from 2010-2013, with the bulk of new units coming in the past year or two. Given what's been built over the last year and what's still in the pipeline, I could see the next five years beating that period.

[denizen467]

In other news about the neighborhoods -- signs of gentrification finally revving up in Edgewater and Rogers Park. They seem oddly overlooked so far; this time there may be extra traction as Red Line reconstruction phases get completed. The block or two around the Loyola station is already a good initial step.

www.chicagotribune.com/business/ct-rogers-park-apartment-sale-1213-biz-20161212-story.html

[Kenmore]

by the time the gentrification talk starts in Rogers Park, you know a crash is around the corner

[LouisVanDerWright]

Haha, sad but true. Rogers Park is one of those areas that are perpetually "the next big neighborhood". Though I have been hearing stories of streets like Lunt North of Loyola and West of Sheridan really popping lately. I could see some small parts of Rogers Park really cleaning up, but it's always been such a patchy place, probably because of it's immense density penetrating far inland from the lake. One area could be super nice SFH and three flats and then there's one SRO apartment building full of gangbangers around the corner. It's not that density is bad, it's just that it takes longer for gentrification to fully take hold when you have such volumes of housing stock to turn over. By the time the developers start making real inroads in turning over a place like Rogers Park, the next crash shuts it all down and sends them back to square one.

Compare this to places like the NW side where large tracts of relatively low density (2-3 unit buildings) can rapidly gentrify in just a few years. Harder to do when half the buildings are 30 unit studio apartment blocks.

[ithakas]

Originally Posted by LouisVanDerWright

Haha, sad but true. Rogers Park is one of those areas that are perpetually "the next big neighborhood".

It's also so far north that I wonder how much ground it can make up when there are neighborhoods waiting for transformation like Little Village, Bridgeport, and McKinley Park all a 15-20 minute train ride from downtown.

[Jibba]

Originally Posted by ithakas

It's also so far north that I wonder how much ground it can make up when there are neighborhoods waiting for transformation like Little Village, Bridgeport, and McKinley Park all a 15-20 minute train ride from downtown.

Don't underestimate the influence of the Red Line and proximity to the lakefront. If you're along the Red Line, you have access to frequent, 24-hour transit service, service that connects you to Uptown, Lakeview, Lincoln Park, North/Clybourn and Old Town, all before you get downtown. The access to the amenities in those intermediate areas alone is a huge draw for those without a car, and the lake has tremendous recreational utility as well as premier cycling infrastructure.

[maru2501]

I know two couples that recently moved to mckinley park. I keep hearing about it

[ithakas]

Originally Posted by maru2501

I know two couples that recently moved to mckinley park. I keep hearing about it

It's diverse, safe, has a central L station, and a cliff of industrial architecture up against a great park. I've been trying to buy there for awhile, hopefully this spring.

It lacks commercial businesses, but it's adjacent to Bridgeport. I could see it becoming the Bucktown to Bridgeport's Wicker Park someday (minus Damen Ave).

[marothisu]

Originally Posted by maru2501

I know two couples that recently moved to mckinley park. I keep hearing about it

In a good or bad way? It's a pretty quiet neighborhood, but La Palapa is a really good place. I think MP is actually better suited public transit (train) wise than Bridgeport because the Orange Line runs more straight through the neighborhood whereas Bridgeport is on the edges.

[LouisVanDerWright]

McKinnley Park is seeing mass Chinese immigration. It's interesting to see a neighborhood being similtaniously gentrified by the assimilated "american" population and also simultaniously becoming a nexus for a new immigration wave. That's not a historically common pattern of development, but seems to be occurring in Bridgeport and McKinnley Park now because of the unique geography of Chinatown (nowhere to expand into except into Bridgeport and then MP) and the fact that the average Chinese immigrant seems to be fairly middle class on average, or at least well off enough that they can relatively quickly afford to start buying the townhomes that are being marketed to them in places like BP and MP.

[maru2501]

Originally Posted by marothisu

In a good or bad way? It's a pretty quiet neighborhood, but La Palapa is a really good place. I think MP is actually better suited public transit (train) wise than Bridgeport because the Orange Line runs more straight through the neighborhood whereas Bridgeport is on the edges.

in a good way. up and coming etc

[Emprise du Lion]

Originally Posted by denizen467

In other news about the neighborhoods -- signs of gentrification finally revving up in Edgewater and Rogers Park. They seem oddly overlooked so far; this time there may be extra traction as Red Line reconstruction phases get completed. The block or two around the Loyola station is already a good initial step.

www.chicagotribune.com/business/ct-rogers-park-apartment-sale-1213-biz-20161212-story.html

In my experience, Edgewater already has a better reputation than Uptown. There's also more places to eat, drink, and get groceries. I wouldn't be surprised if Edgewater ends up leapfrogging Uptown.

As for the corner of Rogers Park and Edgewater surrounding Loyola, a lot of businesses have come in just within the last few years since I graduated that are primarily catering to the students. There's certainly far more now than there was when I graduated. A lot of the neighbors hate what Loyola has done over the years, but many of the positive results in the area seem to be due to the university and the desire to cater to many of the students. I recently heard about a Target going in near the Morgan and the retirement center as well.