Calgary Civic Census 2015

[suburbia]

Originally Posted by Chealion

Beltline went from 21,357 (2014) to 21,939 (2015). That's nearly 600.

How does that rank in terms of net growth on an an area basis. Was Beltline within the top 20 or so?

Noted that a portion of the core actually lost over 10% of its population!

[Spring2008]

35k is a lot higher than expected given that half this census period would have been within the oil collapse. ~140k city proper growth over the past 4 years.

Beltline's so-so growth expected given only two towers hitting the market this census period. A lot more towers will hit the City Centre over the next 2 yrs.

[Spring2008]

Results breakdown:

http://www.calgary.ca/CA/city-clerks...lts%20book.pdf

Pg 12, Lots of green throughout the inner-city. Noticeable amount of grey and red in the suburbs?

[Chealion]

Originally Posted by suburbia

How does that rank in terms of net growth on an an area basis. Was Beltline within the top 20 or so?

Number 20 in terms of numbers this year if you're wanting to be pedantic.

[fusili]

Very rough suburban/inner city split:

Suburbs:
Wards 2, 3, 6, 12, 13, 14
Population Growth: 25 337
Percentage of Total: 71%

Inner City:
Wards 1, 4, 5, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11
Pop Growth: 10 384
Percentage of Total: 29%

Not a bad split, but less than the ~40% last time (not sure what they included though so this isn't apples to apples).

[Boris2k7]

Ignoring the areas that didn't have substantial populations to begin with (eg. industrial areas, areas beyond the edge of development, etc.)...

- solid growth in Symons Valley communities
- solid growth in the Far South-East communities
- solid growth in the Far North-East communities
- soild growth in Aspen (but none of its surrounding communities... weird)
- good growth in Rideau, Roxboro, and adjacent communities to the east and south
- I guess we can now see the effect of developments in Brentwood and Currie Barracks
- what the hell Eau Claire, what you doin' losing population like that?
- I don't know about you, but for me, having the only Centre City community registering growth in the 6-10% range be Downtown West End is... kinda sad
- people don't to live in Bel-Aire of Kelvin Grove no mo'

I'm pretty impressed by the 35K figure. Considering that the previous three years were all record breaking, and we are still above 2012's numbers.

[fusili]

I wish the City also included a map with gross population change rather than percentage (and I would like to see it as 3D bars because community areas will skew perception). Some areas with huge population that grow only a few percentage points show up as light green while small population community can grow by like 20 people and show up as dark green.

[Surrealplaces]

Originally Posted by fusili

I predict we will see that change in 5 years. Beltline will grow at ~750 people per year for the next three years just due to current construction. Hell, Metropolitan itself will add 500 people.

That and Guardian alone will probably add about 700-800 people.

Also Panorama Hills will either peak soon, if it hasn't already and then start to drop population, whereas the Beltline will either stay level or increase.

[Surrealplaces]

Originally Posted by suburbia

How does that rank in terms of net growth on an an area basis. Was Beltline within the top 20 or so?

Noted that a portion of the core actually lost over 10% of its population!

If comparing apples to apples, as in only be comparing neighborhoods that are already built out....then the Beltline is #1 for net growth

As a side note Eau Claire while part of the core doesn't represent much of it's total population. It has a small population to begin with so it doesn't take much to lose 10%. Didn't that low income housing apartment building clear out sometime in the last census period?

[Surrealplaces]

I was actually surprised that there was a downtown neighborhood that was in the 6-10% range. It would be nice to have higher percentages, but given that they are already built out areas, I don't see it happening very often. East Village will be one area of the core that will see explosive numbers percentage wise, but outside of that all the neighborhoods in the core are built out. They will never have big numbers from a percentage point of view.

Originally Posted by Boris2k7

Ignoring the areas that didn't have substantial populations to begin with (eg. industrial areas, areas beyond the edge of development, etc.)...

- solid growth in Symons Valley communities
- solid growth in the Far South-East communities
- solid growth in the Far North-East communities
- soild growth in Aspen (but none of its surrounding communities... weird)
- good growth in Rideau, Roxboro, and adjacent communities to the east and south
- I guess we can now see the effect of developments in Brentwood and Currie Barracks
- what the hell Eau Claire, what you doin' losing population like that?
- I don't know about you, but for me, having the only Centre City community registering growth in the 6-10% range be Downtown West End is... kinda sad
- people don't to live in Bel-Aire of Kelvin Grove no mo'

I'm pretty impressed by the 35K figure. Considering that the previous three years were all record breaking, and we are still above 2012's numbers.

[Doug_Cgy]

Originally Posted by suburbia

Breaking news: Calgary's population went up 35K. Beltline went up 500.

Breaking news: Calgary's population went up 35K. Panorama Hills went up 863. Only 281 more than the Beltline...

[ByeByeBaby]

Originally Posted by Boris2k7

- good growth in Rideau, Roxboro, and adjacent communities to the east and south

This isn't really growth so much as restoration; these Elbow River communities had substantial population losses in the last census after the flood, and they are just rebounding back to their stable population levels.

[suburbia]

Beltline

2014 population: 21,357
2014 dwellings: 15,243
2015 population: 21,939 (distant 2nd)
2015 dwellings: 17,076 (1st by far)

Growth population: 582 (20th)
as a percentage of 2014: 2.73%

Growth dwellings: 1,833 (1st)
as a percentage of 2014: 12.03%

population density per dwelling 2014: 1.40 people per dwelling *
population density per dwelling 2015: 1.28 people per dwelling *

* I'm using the gross numbers as listed above

While I think the Beltline continues to do fantastic, I'll highlight the same number I pointed to last year. Population density per dwelling. Here are a few bullets:

- Either there are more and more empty units, or there are more and more loners
- When we think of density, we often just look at dwelling density, but another factor is people per developed livable space, and by this measure the Beltline is heading in the wrong direction. Four people in 2,000sf is better than one person in 600sf.

Further to the above, only 4,278 of the over 17,000 dwellings in the Beltline are owner occupied, and this ratio has an inverse relationship with crime and pride of ownership.

With the increase in rental vacancies, this raises interesting risks for communities living on the fumes of renters. Could this open up possibilities for the City's homeless initiatives / get people into units rather than let thousands of dwellings sit?

[CalgaryAlex]

Originally Posted by suburbia

Further to the above, only 4,278 of the over 17,000 dwellings in the Beltline are owner occupied, and this ratio has an inverse relationship with crime and pride of ownership.

Lol

[Boris2k7]

Originally Posted by ByeByeBaby

This isn't really growth so much as restoration; these Elbow River communities had substantial population losses in the last census after the flood, and they are just rebounding back to their stable population levels.

That makes a lot of sense, considering that UMR shrunk a little bit while communities just south of it grew.

[Surrealplaces]

Originally Posted by suburbia

Beltline

- Either there are more and more empty units, or there are more and more loners
- When we think of density, we often just look at dwelling density, but another factor is people per developed livable space, and by this measure the Beltline is heading in the wrong direction. Four people in 2,000sf is better than one person in 600sf.

There are more people living alone in the Beltline for sure, but the bulk is couples compared to the suburbs which are mostly families. I don't think density of a given house compared to density of neighborhood space matters does it? In the end, we are still comparing densities of a given area.

Yes, it would be nice to have more families in the Beltline. That is something that is lacking a bit.

Originally Posted by suburbia

Further to the above, only 4,278 of the over 17,000 dwellings in the Beltline are owner occupied, and this ratio has an inverse relationship with crime and pride of ownership.

Take a look at the percentage of owner occupied dwellings in London, Paris, Manhattan, San Francisco, Hong Kong, Toronto or Vancouver, etc.......in particular the cool parts of those cities. Sometimes it pays to look beyond the stats.

[Boris2k7]

How on earth does anyone think that somehow four people living in a house is better than one person living in an apartment? Even we assumed that only one person lived in each unit of my tower, and all the unit sizes were the same, there'd still be 310 people living on the same sized parcel of land as 2-3 of your Estate-sized homes.

[fusili]

Originally Posted by suburbia View Post
Further to the above, only 4,278 of the over 17,000 dwellings in the Beltline are owner occupied, and this ratio has an inverse relationship with crime and pride of ownership.

Do you have any actual data or studies to back this up, or just general trolling again? Are there studies of crimes rates based on neighbourhood ownership rates that control for actual causes of crime such as income disparity, unemployment, etc?

[RyLucky]

Originally Posted by suburbia

Beltline

2014 population: 21,357
2014 dwellings: 15,243
2015 population: 21,939 (distant 2nd)
2015 dwellings: 17,076 (1st by far)

Growth population: 582 (20th)
as a percentage of 2014: 2.73%

Growth dwellings: 1,833 (1st)
as a percentage of 2014: 12.03%

population density per dwelling 2014: 1.40 people per dwelling *
population density per dwelling 2015: 1.28 people per dwelling *

* I'm using the gross numbers as listed above

While I think the Beltline continues to do fantastic, I'll highlight the same number I pointed to last year. Population density per dwelling. Here are a few bullets:

- Either there are more and more empty units, or there are more and more loners
- When we think of density, we often just look at dwelling density, but another factor is people per developed livable space, and by this measure the Beltline is heading in the wrong direction. Four people in 2,000sf is better than one person in 600sf.

Further to the above, only 4,278 of the over 17,000 dwellings in the Beltline are owner occupied, and this ratio has an inverse relationship with crime and pride of ownership.

With the increase in rental vacancies, this raises interesting risks for communities living on the fumes of renters. Could this open up possibilities for the City's homeless initiatives / get people into units rather than let thousands of dwellings sit?

Not bad for a neighbourhood that has needed no new roads in the past century (except cycle tracks).

As for your observations, yes, more people live alone in apartments than in 5-bedroom mansions in Tuscany.

[CalgaryAlex]

Originally Posted by Boris2k7

How on earth does anyone think that somehow four people living in a house is better than one person living in an apartment? Even we assumed that only one person lived in each unit of my tower, and all the unit sizes were the same, there'd still be 310 people living on the same sized parcel of land as 2-3 of your Estate-sized homes.

A+ comment.