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Originally Posted by swimmer_spe
Fine. Then lets see the run between Sudbury and Toronto get to less than 5 hours. Its only 400km. It should not take EIGHT hours.
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It is rather strange that it takes 7:12 to go from Toronto to Sudbury Jct. and 9:40 to go from Sudbury Jct. to Toronto. That averages to 8:26.
I agree that is to long, but getting it under 5 hours is a bit of wishful thinking. Why? It is hard to compare travel times on a route with occasional service to a heavily used passenger corridor. When you have multiple trains a day running along it, upgrade investments can be amortized over more trains to accelerate the ROI.
It would be better to compare it to routes line the Adirondack and the Vermonter (formerly the Montrealer) as they offered (before COVID) daily service and were the only trains on much of their route. I'll start south of the boarder to rule out any extra time needed to cross it.
Toronto-Sudbury Jct.: 438km (7:12 or 9:40)
Rouses Point, NY-Poughkeepsie, NY: 418km (6:20 each way)
St. Albans, VT-Hartford Union Station: 436km (6:09 or 6:39)
In my mind, if we can get it under 6 1/2 hours, we are doing very well. The question is this is one leg on one route. How much pent up demand is there from Sudbury (pop. 165 thousand, and Canada's 24th largest CMA) to Toronto?
The data you provided show 1,994 total passengers in 2018.
In 2018 there were 150 trains each way (3 trains a week for 46 weeks and 2 trains a week for 6 weeks) or 300 total trains.
Assuming they are all going to/from Toronto (not a good assumption), that works out to an average of 6.65 passengers per train.
While it is true that all passengers on the train would benefit from the upgrade, this is just one small section of a very long route on one of many routes. Should this segment be VIA's highest priority?
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Toronto to Winnipeg: 2,0261,958km
Winnipeg to Edmonton: 1,3031,278km
Edmonton to Vancouver: 1,1541,231Km
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and Calgary to Vancouver: 1031km (on CPR route)
Corrected it for you using CN's track (might be slightly different in the direction where they use CP's track). Either way, those distances are way to long for frequent intercity rail service to be feasible.
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You notice that I never "padded" any numbers? That is because I know that it will not be a simple double, but it be a lot more than it has been.
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Yes, but a small padding doesn't help when your assumptions are off by an order of magnitude.
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The Top 6 cities in Canada has rail... oh, wait, no, it does not.
Toronto
Montreal
Vancouver
Calgary
Ottawa
Edmonton are the top cities.
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You keep saying that, and I agree. The problem is that you keep forgetting the inter in intercity rail, the "inter" means between. Thus you need two cities for intercity rail. The only major city near Calgary is Edmonton, and the people of Alberta petitioned VIA to cancel that route. Maybe things have changed in the intervening 30 years, but given how oil-centric the province is, I wouldn't be surprised if the interest is still small.
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5 are served by intercity rail. 3 are served by service that is multiple times a day. The ones that are served by regular daily service also has the highest ridership. Maybe it is a fluke, or maybe it is because people in larger cities tend to use public transportation more.
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Actually, Vancouver had (before COVID) 2 trains a day to/from Seattle and Portland, so 4 are served by service that is multiple times a day.
The only hope for multiple trains a day for Edmonton and Calgary is a train between them. You need local support for that to happen. If you can get that, then I would definitely support it.
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But that high? That did surprise me.
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Not sure if you were referring to my comments about Kingston or London.
Kingston is about 260km (depending on your destination) from Toronto. I don't have the report from when I last checked. Now it is saying about 2:30-3:10 if you leave Kingston at midnight, so lets say 2 1/2 hours rather than the 2 3/4 I previously said.
As for London, you can find a list of Canada's largest CMAs
here.
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If the province could give Brantford GO service and give London GO service, all at once, and it be shorter route, why not? My only thought would be how packed the train would be after Aldershot.
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Details are scarce so anything is possible. I doubt it though as it would be much more expensive and provides fewer options for London residents. The northern route would give them access to KW and Guelph, which are both significant destinations. Having people who board in London alight there will free up seats for more commuters.
Besides, if you read
this article, the service could be operated by either GO or VIA. Details and timelines are uncertain.
I certainly wouldn't be surprised if once VIA gets its new fleet, they will use LRC/HEP cars to restore and supplement service between London and Toronto (they took some trains away in southern Ontario to increase frequency between Ottawa and Toronto).
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I know. All the other ones have some sort of road service. That almost seems counter productive.
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So tear up the roads?
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How can you argue one route is less of one thing and more of another? Do you have the data for it hidden in your thong?
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I do know the Canadian has two types of passengers:
- Intercity rail passengers
- Tourist on a land cruise
The first are very schedule sensitive (they want the train to match their schedule, and if it doesn't, they will likely find another mode of transport). The second are not (they will modify their schedule to match the train's). For that reason, boosting the frequency of service will only significantly boost the ridership of those in the first group. If (drawing numbers of of my thong, as you say
) 10% of passengers are in the first group and 90% are in the second, the increase in passengers when you "double" the frequency of service will be very small.
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The Regional routes that have been suggested would make these numbers go up. Places like Saint John and Halifax using these routes would see higher ridership. They are within similar distance as Toronto and Montreal
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Similar distance, but less that 1/10 the population. Both are important.
Toronto: 5,928,040
Montreal: 4,098,927
Halifax: 403,390
Moncton: 144,810
Saint John: 126,202
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So, is that what makes Toronto so busy is those thru passengers? Would those numbers drop by half if that's the case?
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You found the statistics. How would I know if they counted thru passengers? Even if they did, we don't the ratio of thru passengers to O/D passengers. This is a perfect example of, "what statistics hide is crucial." Not knowing that you don't have enough information is dangerous.
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That is normally how any transportation company works. Same as buses or air travel. More routes = more people.
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My argument is The Canadian is part transportation service part scenic tour. Adding more tour routes does not open up a new target market, it gives your existing target market more choice.
If I want to see the Rockies by train, if there is one route, I will take it. If there are two routes, I will pick one.
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Think of people within a few hours of the major cities. If they knew there was daily service passing by that goes to those major cities, a weekend trip to the city would be a normal event. That would make those numbers go up. That is how convenience works.
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First of all, you are assuming that the schedule works well for weekend trips and does that schedule work well for the other 5 days of the week?
Secondly, how many people live "few hours of the major cities" outside of the corridor? Enough to fill a train each way 7 days a week?
A good comparison is probably Sarnia as it has daily service to Toronto (via London). Sarnia is quite small (Canada's 43rd largest city with a population of 96 thousand and falling); however, it is only 290km from Toronto. Moreover, it is only 95km from London, which already has frequent service to Toronto, so the incremental cost of extending the train from London to Sarnia is small.
Despite daily service and close proximity to Canada's largest city, the "Total passengers at stations (boarding and deboarding)" on the extension are:
SARNIA: 19,490
WYOMING: 1,650
STRATHROY: 2,361
Total: 23,501
With daily, bidirectional service, we can divide the total by 730 (365x2) and get an average of 32 passengers per train. That is less than half the capacity of an
LRC coach (68 seats).
Granted every situation is different, but that should give you an idea of what demand would be like for daily service from those living "within a few hours" of major cities. Other Canadian cities are much smaller than Toronto, and there are only a few places with populations similar to Sarnia.
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Do you have those ridership numbers?
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I do not. Even if I did, it would be so old that it would be irrelevant anyway.
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So, why not shut down the less scenic route? Oh, right, political reasons.
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I never said that tourists don't travel east of Edmonton (the less scenic part), just that some only want to take it through the Rockies. Besides, while they haven't shut it down, but they do only have 2 trains a week east of Edmonton but 3 trains a week west of Edmonton.
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Well, now you are not reading things. I did not actually just double trains. Technically, In order to properly double it, we would need 8 days. 3x2 is 6, but there is one more day each week. Your math and understanding a calendar is weak.
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Sorry. While my father was a mathematician and he would be pedantic about people saying things like "the larger half" (if one of 2 pieces is larger, it isn't a half), engineers tend to approximate things when the error is within your tolerance (the key is knowing your tolerance for error). So while 7/3 isn't exactly double (it is 2.33...), when rounded to the nearest integer, it is 2, and thus the term double is a reasonable approximation.
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Silliness is strong on this. I could understand you saying that doubling it would not see double the ridership, but 10 times a day?
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It was a
hyperbole intended to make a point. I also included your "buffer" (7 is more than double 3 and 10 is more than 8 times 1, so I multiplied by 16 (2 x 8) not 23 1/3 (10 x 7 / 3) to create even more of a buffer than you did.
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Ah, well, the math is weak with you.
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Resorting to insults eh? People tend to do that when they are loosing an debate and unwilling to admit defeat.