Alberta Population Growth

[Chadillaccc]

Originally Posted by big W

That's odd. When I posted the link they had the 2014 numbers. Looks like they might have taken them down?

I looked less than five minutes after you posted the link and they weren't there. :/

[ciudad_del_norte]

The official numbers are released at 11:30 today. Website just might have been accidentally updated too early and somebody caught it and took it down.

[Chadillaccc]

Wooot! For Alberta's 4 largest cities since the 2011 census:


Calgary: 1,195,194; +98,361; absolute growth - 9%; annual growth - 2.9%

Edmonton: 877,926; +65,725; absolute growth - 8.1%; annual growth - 2.6%

Red Deer: 98,585; +8,021; absolute growth - 8.9%; annual growth - 2.9%

Lethbridge: 93,004; +9,487; absolute growth - 11.4%; annual growth - 3.7%



By census 2021, Alberta will have four federally recognized Census Metropolitan Areas We will have three as of census 2016

[Skyisnolimit]

Originally Posted by Chadillaccc

Wooot! For Alberta's 4 largest cities since the 2011 census:


Calgary: 1,195,194; +98,361; absolute growth - 9%; annual growth - 2.9%

Edmonton: 877,926; +65,725; absolute growth - 8.1%; annual growth - 2.6%

Red Deer: 98,585; +8,021; absolute growth - 8.9%; annual growth - 2.9%

Lethbridge: 93,004; +9,487; absolute growth - 11.4%; annual growth - 3.7%



By census 2021, Alberta will have four federally recognized Census Metropolitan Areas We will have three as of census 2016

Do you have the current metro numbers for Edmonton and Calgary

[CanadianCentaur]

^ If we go by CMA population estimates from Stats Canada (http://www.statcan.gc.ca/tables-tabl...emo05a-eng.htm), this is you'll see for 2013:

Calgary - 1,364,800
Edmonton - 1,289,600

Those are estimates for 2013 - I can't find anything for 2014, but it gives you an idea how big these CMAs are by now.

[Skyisnolimit]

Originally Posted by CanadianCentaur

^ If we go by CMA population estimates from Stats Canada (http://www.statcan.gc.ca/tables-tabl...emo05a-eng.htm), this is you'll see for 2013:

Calgary - 1,364,800
Edmonton - 1,289,600

Those are estimates for 2013 - I can't find anything for 2014, but it gives you an idea how big these CMAs are by now.

Thanks but I need new ones for marketing purposes. I am sure these numbers will be released soon.

[DizzyEdge]

Originally Posted by HomeInMyShoes

To put it in perspective. Edmonton just sucked up Medicine Hat in two years.

Yikes.

Speaking of which, anyone have Medicine Hat numbers newer than 2011?

Found some.


Medicine Hat 2012 Municipal Census: 61180
Adjacent towns:
Redcliff 2011 Federal Census: 5588
Adjacent hamlets (2011):
Desert Blume 306
Dunmore 1025

So a total of 68099

Could be 70k by now.

At current rates it might not hit 100k for 40 years, but surprisingly (to me), Grand Prairie at only 58k including adjacent communities at current rates will hit 100k in 20.

[Skyisnolimit]

Originally Posted by Chadillaccc

Wooot! For Alberta's 4 largest cities since the 2011 census:


Calgary: 1,195,194; +98,361; absolute growth - 9%; annual growth - 2.9%

Edmonton: 877,926; +65,725; absolute growth - 8.1%; annual growth - 2.6%

Red Deer: 98,585; +8,021; absolute growth - 8.9%; annual growth - 2.9%

Lethbridge: 93,004; +9,487; absolute growth - 11.4%; annual growth - 3.7%



By census 2021, Alberta will have four federally recognized Census Metropolitan Areas We will have three as of census 2016

according to this article Edmonton has grown 3.7% per year since 2012 http://www.edmontonjournal.com/Edmon...002/story.html Edmonton's official population in 2012 was 817,498 http://www.edmonton.ca/city_governme...al-census.aspx

[speedog]

Originally Posted by Skyisnolimit

according to this article Edmonton has grown 3.7% per year since 2012 http://www.edmontonjournal.com/Edmon...002/story.html Edmonton's official population in 2012 was 817,498 http://www.edmonton.ca/city_governme...al-census.aspx

Where did you read anything about 3.7% in that article? There is mention of 7.4% over two years but that doesn't necessarily translate directly into 7.4% divided by 2 years = 3.7% annual growth.

Two years of successive growth at 3.7% each year would have been as follows...

2012 = 817,498
2013 = 847,745
2014 = 879,112

Of course my old school math could be way off, who knows.

[Chadillaccc]

According to StatCan Population Projections released today, in the medium growth scenario, Alberta is forecast to be around 6.2 million by 2038. With high growth at 6.8 million and low growth at 5.6 million. In all models, Alberta will be the fastest growing province over the next 25 years, and will still have the youngest population even by the end of the period. In most scenarios, Alberta will surpass BC sometime before 2038.

http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quoti...40917a-eng.htm

[Chadillaccc]

Originally Posted by Skyisnolimit

Thanks but I need new ones for marketing purposes. I am sure these numbers will be released soon.

I think they get released in February along with the official yearly provincial population estimates. However, the quarterly provincial estimates should be released very soon. I expect Alberta to have grown by another ~40 000 over the past 3 months, to reach a population of about 4 150 000.

[kora]

Looks like another record year for immigration to Alberta, and again more than BC:

41,016 immigrants to Alberta in 2013/2014.

Interestingly, Saskatchewan and Manitoba are getting proportionately more immigrants than Alberta.

Stats Canada
http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/91-215-...0/t242-eng.pdf

[Chadillaccc]

It looks like 100 000+ per year is the new norm for Alberta. That is really nice to see We grew by around 115 000 over the past year, 120 000 the year before, and 100 000 the year before that

Alberta has grown by nearly 900 000 people in the last 10 years. Nine.Hundred.Thousand. That is fucking wild! Our yearly average over the past ten years comes to 89 000! If we continue this trend for the next ten years, we will be past 5.1 million people by 2024.

Keep in mind, these numbers also include two years where Alberta's economy actually contracted (the worst recession in two decades), even though in those two years combined, Alberta still grew by a total of 113 000


So with all of that said, barring any further recessions until the mid 2020s, we could realistically be past 5 million by 2022, with an average yearly growth of 115 000, if of course this is the new norm.

[BretttheRiderFan]

Originally Posted by DizzyEdge

Speaking of which, anyone have Medicine Hat numbers newer than 2011?

Found some.


Medicine Hat 2012 Municipal Census: 61180
Adjacent towns:
Redcliff 2011 Federal Census: 5588
Adjacent hamlets (2011):
Desert Blume 306
Dunmore 1025

So a total of 68099

Could be 70k by now.

At current rates it might not hit 100k for 40 years, but surprisingly (to me), Grand Prairie at only 58k including adjacent communities at current rates will hit 100k in 20.

Those GP numbers seem wonky to me. The population of the city itself was 55,000 in 2011. That doesn't include surrounding communities like Clairmont, Sexsmith, Wembley, Grovedale, and the County in between these communities, which locally are all considered bedroom communities.

I don't know exactly how the census agglomeration of Grande Prairie is defined by Stats Can, but it is definitely inaccurate as far as the local reality goes.

And I know that they revised it for the 2011 census, because the 2006 census had a CA population of over 70k.

[kora]

Yearly Immigration to Alberta metro areas, comparing 2003 to 2013

2003 to 2013
Alberta: 15,839 to 36,366
Calgary: 9,271 to 17,505
Edmonton: 4,810 to 12,717
Wood Buffalo: 131 to 960
Red Deer: 203 to 719
Lethbridge: 185 to 556


Permanent residents by province or territory and urban area, 2009-2013
http://www.cic.gc.ca/english/resourc...iminary/02.asp

Facts and Figures 2012: Permanent residents by province or territory and urban area
http://www.cic.gc.ca/english/resourc...rmanent/11.asp

[Procrastinational]

I wonder how much of an impact the drop in oil prices as of late will have on growth in Alberta.
Not in the short term, but rather if there is a prolonged period of reduced prices relative to the last few years.

And with economic prospects in Ontario improved by the weakening dollar, I wonder how that will impact interprovincial migration to Alberta.

Can only wait and see I guess.

[Chadillaccc]

Random question, but why does the Red Deer CA only cover the City of Red Deer, while the Lethbridge CA (soon to be CMA) covers nearly 3000 km2?

For my calculations, I have combined the Red Deer, Sylvan Lake, and Lacombe CA's as they are all basically one metro region.


These are my estimates for what the census results of 2016 will be:

Calgary 2011: 1 215 839
Calgary 2016: 1 421 362 (17% growth)

Edmonton 2011: 1 159 869
Edmonton 2016: 1 345 448 (16% growth)

Red Deer 2011: 115 033
Red Deer 2016: 131 138 (14% growth)

Lethbridge 2011: 105 999
Lethbridge 2016: 119 779 (13% growth)


Keep in mind that censuses always have vast undercounts, especially in places with high population growth rates. The yearly estimates are widely considered to be more accurate (Calgary is already past 1.4 million, for instance).

[MalcolmTucker]

From Statscan:

To be included in the CMA or CA, other adjacent municipalities must have a high degree of integration with the core, as measured by commuting flows derived from previous census place of work data.

In Red Deer's case the following would apply, and no other rule overrides:

2. Forward commuting flow rule: Given a minimum of 100 commuters, at least 50% of the employed labour force living in the CSD works in the delineation core (see following note), as determined from commuting data based on the place of work question in the previous census.

http://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-re...geo009-eng.cfm

[Chadillaccc]

Oh okay. So eventually they will be included in Red Deer.

[MalcolmTucker]

^ If there are commuter patterns, which who knows. The industrial parks are pretty spread around surrounding municipalities.