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Originally Posted by Ch.G, Ch.G
Aside from New Orleans, all the metros that declined comprise the major cities of the eastern half the Great Lakes/Rust Belt region. Weird.
And, to revisit a point that Crawford has made many times before, how is it that Pittsburgh, despite numbers that would doom any other metro to the "dying" label in the media, has been able to parlay its population decrease into a success story?
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Crawford has made the point time and time again... but always ignores further analysis of the region's unique demographics.
Quite simply, population change is a lagging indicator of economic performance. Metro Pittsburgh's economic catastrophe of yesteryear was so dramatic that the resulting demographic distortions have taken decades to overcome.
You'll find the components of population change for the Pittsburgh region to be significantly different from that of Cleveland, Detroit... or any other major region in the country for that matter. The Pittsburgh region is
literally dying... meaning it is the only major region in the US experiencing "natural decrease"... more deaths than births... a legacy of severe economic distress and outmigration during the 1970s and 1980s. While a region like Cleveland is not a fertility hotspot (Southeast Michigan, however, has a surprisingly high birth rate)... these declining regions have the benefit of a "natural increase cushion" to somewhat blunt the population decrease caused by high rates of net outmigration.
Pittsburgh has also failed to benefit much from international migrants. The region is just far enough away from the immigration gateways of the East Coast to not get the spillover satellites like Reading and Allentown enjoy. Additionally, its distance from Mexico (No. 1 source of immigrants) and its economic armageddon 30 years ago (a time when many present immigrant groups from Asia and Latin America were establishing communities in US cities) have kept the region off the map for immigrants. Pittsburgh has been making strides to shed its parochialism and embrace immigration... but the regional labor demand for immigrants remains largely confined to skilled professionals.
Natural decrease is no cause for celebration in Pittsburgh... but the overall population decline numbers of the past decade caused by this phenomenon mask the positive economic and demographic trajectory of the region. Despite natural decrease and an almost non-existent bump from international migrants... Metro Pittsburgh has posted overall population growth for the past two years... a much celebrated reversal of fortune for a region plagued by population shrinkage for at least 40 years.
Census estimates have shown Metro Pittsburgh to have been on the positive side of domestic migration for the past half-decade. The overall gains are now large enough to overcome the region's unique curse of natural decrease (a reality that may come soon for the likes of Cleveland, Buffalo and others). Especially encouraging is that the metro's core urban county (Allegheny) has led the region's population growth.
Beyond the obsession of counting bodies in a certain space... the Pittsburgh region is rightly lauded for its economic transformation... to have come from the brink of disaster 30 years ago... to now be a resilient and diversified economy... is an inspirational model for many. This economic transformation has supported dramatic gains in income, educational attainment, labor force growth, office market demand, and many other socio-economic indicators and measures.