The Effects of Pandemic on our Service Industry.

[lubicon]

I have two kids in university. Both have secured summer employment but I fully expect at least one and possibly both of them to have the offer rescinded. That impacts the affordability of school for next year.

[LakeLocker]

Originally Posted by lubicon

I have two kids in university. Both have secured summer employment but I fully expect at least one and possibly both of them to have the offer rescinded. That impacts the affordability of school for next year.

Gonna do far more damage to landlords, as you have a mass of youth returning home to live with their parents.

No work no school why on earth would you be paying rent.

[Franco401]

Originally Posted by LakeLocker

Gonna do far more damage to landlords, as you have a mass of youth returning home to live with their parents.

No work no school why on earth would you be paying rent.

I feel much worse for people out of work than for landlords losing a bit of their passive income.

[Curmudgeon]

There are some positive developments as well.

The rate of increase in new cases reported in mainland China, which had its first case roughly a month before any other country and which still has more than 60% of all worldwide cases, is now insignificant. Since March 1st from a base of 80,026, the number of cases has increased to 80,796, or less than a 1% increase. Official numbers from China must be viewed with skepticism, but observations on the ground support the marked decline in the rate of increase.

Similarly in South Korea, the rate of increase has slowed markedly. The number of cases over the past 5 days has grown by 16.2%, compared with 60.6% over the previous 5 day period and 331% over the 5 day period ending March 1st.

Italy is an outlier statistically in both rate of infection and death rate. It must be true that a very virulent strain was introduced into Italy directly from ground zero, and it is confirmed that the originating cases all had a travel connection to the Wuhan area. Italy's death rate of 6.7% is the highest in the world by a considerable margin. Other countries that, like Italy, have a higher rate of infection than mainland China all have much lower death rates, as does China itself with a rate of 3.9%. South Korea has a rate of 0.8%. The Nordic countries (excl. Finland) have among the highest rates of infection in the world with 2,205 cases in a population of about 22 million, but only 2 deaths, a death rate of 0.1%. Iceland has rate of infection about 5 times that of China. Canada with a thus far small base has a death rate of 0.8%, the U.K. 1.7%, Germany 0.2% and the U.S. 2.5% so there is no reason to believe that the outbreak in Canada will mirror the situation in Italy. Clearly that's not to suggest that precautions should not be taken, and in addition to banning all travel between "hot spots" like Italy, we should no longer be repatriating Canadians who are presently in those places. Assistance should be provided to those Canadian citizens if necessary to remain in their current location until such time as the assessed risk is no longer present.

Thus far the spread of the virus has occurred almost exclusively in affluent developed countries likely because in a more affluent country there are greater numbers of people engaged in international travel.l. Apart from Iran, no developing nation has more than 100 cases, India with 1.35 billion population has 74 cases, Mexico has 12. This evidence linking spread to travel would further justify restrictions.

I think use of common sense is appropriate. Wash hands (which people should be doing anyways, I mean come on, I've seen men come out of a stall in a public washroom and head straight out the door), avoid contact with anyone in or who works in a nursing home or even hospital, and for now, avoid unnecessary travel. I don't think it is necessary to panic or become hysterical. Historical evidence shows that most strains of the flu dissipate rapidly with the onset of warmer weather. No reason at this point to believe that this won't be the case with this strain .

[LakeLocker]

Originally Posted by Franco401

I feel much worse for people out of work than for landlords losing a bit of their passive income.

What if they are both?

[craneSpotter]

Many future events - with even moderately sized crowds - are being canceled today across Canada. Conventions, shows etc

Ontario spring break extended by two weeks for public schools.

Disney is closing their California parks until end of March.

[someone123]

Originally Posted by Curmudgeon

Clearly that's not to suggest that precautions should not be taken, and in addition to banning all travel between "hot spots" like Italy, we should no longer be repatriating Canadians who are presently in those places. Assistance should be provided to those Canadian citizens if necessary to remain in their current location until such time as the assessed risk is no longer present.

Canadians flew back from the Diamond Princess and were quarantined in Trenton. There isn't much risk to the public of doing that but leaving healthy Canadians in places like Italy is a big risk. Hopefully most Canadians have already left Italy.

India with 1.35 billion population has 74 cases, Mexico has 12. This evidence linking spread to travel would further justify restrictions.

India has done barely any testing (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_testing). In Iceland 1,949 per million have been tested and in India 3 per million have been tested. This is no doubt a factor in why Iceland has a higher rate of known infections.

A low rate of known infections doesn't mean much unless adequate testing is done.

[someone123]

One thing I have noticed is a tendency to report "X new cases" in a given place. This is worthless unless a time period is given, and changes in the rate of new infections can't be assessed unless a consistent time period is used for comparison.

For example, break things down into 24 hour periods and look at how many people have become infected during each period.

The total count of cases is likewise not very useful particularly now that many people are known to have recovered. The rate of new infections is what matters.

[whatnext]

Something to think about for those who use AirBnB:

..“Airbnb is facing the worst collapse of the travel industry since who knows when," said Dror Poleg, the author of Rethinking Real Estate and the co-chair of the Urban Land Institute’s Technology and Innovation Council in New York. "Airbnb thrives on conferences and large events, many of which are now postponed indefinitely.”

“Coronavirus is a coup de grace, it’s the last thing they needed,” said Mr. Poleg, who argues Airbnb was already facing increased competition from online travel agent giants such as Expedia and from international hotel chains such as Marriott, which may be better positioned to manage the coronavirus fallout...

On Feb., 28, Airbnb changed its “extenuating circumstances policy,” so that hosts and guests in areas affected by travel bans would no longer face financial or platform penalties for bailing on a booking. The site’s public-facing pages do not contain guidance on hygiene and sanitation in a health outbreak and the company declined to say whether it has shared any information of that nature privately with hosts.

“The hotel companies because they are so centralized, they can respond to these things … they can make sure the rooms are sanitized, to make people more comfortable. With [the coronavirus] the last thing I want to do is sleep in someone else’s bed,” Mr. Poleg said...(bold mine)

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/real...navirus-fears/

[LakeLocker]

Originally Posted by whatnext

Something to think about for those who use AirBnB:

..“Airbnb is facing the worst collapse of the travel industry since who knows when," said Dror Poleg, the author of Rethinking Real Estate and the co-chair of the Urban Land Institute’s Technology and Innovation Council in New York. "Airbnb thrives on conferences and large events, many of which are now postponed indefinitely.”

“Coronavirus is a coup de grace, it’s the last thing they needed,” said Mr. Poleg, who argues Airbnb was already facing increased competition from online travel agent giants such as Expedia and from international hotel chains such as Marriott, which may be better positioned to manage the coronavirus fallout...

On Feb., 28, Airbnb changed its “extenuating circumstances policy,” so that hosts and guests in areas affected by travel bans would no longer face financial or platform penalties for bailing on a booking. The site’s public-facing pages do not contain guidance on hygiene and sanitation in a health outbreak and the company declined to say whether it has shared any information of that nature privately with hosts.

“The hotel companies because they are so centralized, they can respond to these things … they can make sure the rooms are sanitized, to make people more comfortable. With [the coronavirus] the last thing I want to do is sleep in someone else’s bed,” Mr. Poleg said...(bold mine)

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/real...navirus-fears/

This makes me wonder if there will be some sort of intense sanitation program being initiated as part of the economic recovery? It'd be a great job creator for the this upcoming summer and a great was of restoring public confidence.

[Acajack]

Just came back from dinner in a local restaurant. The crowd was 80-90% of a typical Friday night. So not bad.

[kel]

The service industry should be the least of societal problems concerning COVID-19. Yes there is people who depend on the pay check just like every other industry but the service industry is mostly an entry level industry where people are moving up to other industries and careers. I’m sure a higher portion of people within the industry will be fine as daddy will pay the bills if it comes down to it.

[Mikemike]

Originally Posted by LakeLocker

What if they are both?

A line of credit against the unit is easier to get and more affordable than borrowing against future income. Payday loans vs. 3% for a LOC

[scryer]

Originally Posted by kel

The service industry should be the least of societal problems concerning COVID-19. Yes there is people who depend on the pay check just like every other industry but the service industry is mostly an entry level industry where people are moving up to other industries and careers. I’m sure a higher portion of people within the industry will be fine as daddy will pay the bills if it comes down to it.

I think that it depends on where you live...

Here in BC the service industry (specifically tourism) is, without a doubt, a major catalyst as to why there are so many businesses running in the first place. It isn't just restaurants and hotels that are going to suffer; rather the effects on COVID-19 will be more widespread to businesses that include event venues (think a convention centre or a stadium), bars, tours, tour operators, travel agents (both internal and external), private transportation, city-wide events, etc. The BC government is advising to restrict gatherings to be less than 250 people. The provincial government is banning cruise ships that carry more than 250 people from docking until July at the moment (which cuts the high season in half, pretty much).

This will be a HUGE hit and a huge wake-up call to the coastal BC economy that depends on the service industry. Heck even eastern parts of BC will be affected by the lack of tourism since BC has plenty of summer spots in the east (I'm thinking the Okanagan). There will be plenty of businesses that will go under if it doesn't get under control fast. And I haven't even gotten started on the Film Industry which does a lot of business south of the border nor am I getting started on the shipping industry which will see companies more reluctant to trade with Canada as we cannot enforce our own laws to protect our railways.

And if you think that the Stampede is going to happen: then you can forget about it!

Also on a moral note: in these recessions and in times of distress; it is ALWAYS the working class that gets hit first and the hardest! Saying that "Daddy will pay for everything" is classist and incredibly insensitive, and I am calling you out on it. Take that scummy train of thought somewhere else. Real working Canadians that depend on it for their livelihood will be severely affected by it.

[cabotp]

Originally Posted by someone123

One thing I have noticed is a tendency to report "X new cases" in a given place. This is worthless unless a time period is given, and changes in the rate of new infections can't be assessed unless a consistent time period is used for comparison.

For example, break things down into 24 hour periods and look at how many people have become infected during each period.

The total count of cases is likewise not very useful particularly now that many people are known to have recovered. The rate of new infections is what matters.

The WHO website as daily situation reports that show this information. There is also the website "World of Meters" That has the same data but with graphs for the countries that have high case loads.

[Loco101]

Some retailers are already in big trouble because they have a shortage of goods to sell. There are two clothing stores in our main shopping mall that are half empty because shipments haven't come in. A friend who works in one of those stores (Maurice's) said that almost all of their clothing comes from China.

I don't think that Timmins will be hit as badly as many other places. We don't really have tourism. Our biggest issues will be that our service sector receives the supplies it needs to operate properly.

[Djeffery]

Originally Posted by Loco101

Some retailers are already in big trouble because they have a shortage of goods to sell. There are two clothing stores in our main shopping mall that are half empty because shipments haven't come in. A friend who works in one of those stores (Maurice's) said that almost all of their clothing comes from China.

I don't think that Timmins will be hit as badly as many other places. We don't really have tourism. Our biggest issues will be that our service sector receives the supplies it needs to operate properly.

Probably more to do with ports being backlogged when rail wasn't running. Stuff that would be in the stores now would have left China before the virus started shutting things down. Not to say that their won't be supply issues in the next few months though.

[GeneralLeeTPHLS]

I work in a restaurant, and things aren't looking too pretty for the future, as it is in many other bars and restaurants across the province (and to an extent across the country, in varying amounts).
Business is about 40-70% of our usual winter numbers and reservations....yesterday, our Friday night, which usually is about 120-250 people for reservations, was down to 70 reso's. (Party of 12? Cancelled, many cancellations in the last week) Five kitchen staff were cut and I was cut for tonight. The company that runs our restaurant had to shut down their signature venue space and their Casa Loma services (restaurant/programming), so their revenues are down, and they're thinking of shutting down our restaurant or another one or two of their others seeing as it'll likely be better for them to do financially while this situation is going.
I went to the local bar last night and things looked much emptier for sure, but it's to be expected with how people are made to feel about this situation...it's definitely going to be a rough few weeks.

[casper]

Originally Posted by Franco401

I feel much worse for people out of work than for landlords losing a bit of their passive income.

I am far more worried about the companies getting into trouble because that is an indication of another wave of layoffs in the economy.

Universality students tend to rent at the bottom of the price range in the market. A lot of those are basement suits or the like. Those are more likely owned by individuals trying to pay a mortgage.

Most companies are lucky to have a 10% profit margin on virtually anything in most industries. They need to reduce cost in a situation like this of run the risk of bankruptcy and all their staff being unemployed.

[MonkeyRonin]

Originally Posted by kel

The service industry should be the least of societal problems concerning COVID-19. Yes there is people who depend on the pay check just like every other industry but the service industry is mostly an entry level industry where people are moving up to other industries and careers. I’m sure a higher portion of people within the industry will be fine as daddy will pay the bills if it comes down to it.

What a fucking stupid thing to say. The service industry isn't just a bunch of teenagers flipping burgers after school. It's a massive industry that employs millions of Canadians in a diverse range of roles & incomes - everything from chefs to uber drivers to hotel managers to cleaners to entertainers. Most of whom very much need those jobs to the pay the bills & provide for their families. And all of whom also spend their money on other sectors of the economy that will take a hit as a result.