Calgary Federal Politics

[suburbia]

Originally Posted by Doug

Calgary would cease being Calgary if it ever elected an NDP representative.

I would agree that in this round, the NDP have completely marginalized themselves and are in effect a non-factor. I'm curious who ends up getting the nomination from the Liberals, given that the provincial PCs are most aligned with the federal Liberals. Alison Redford and Stephen Harper completely avoided each other during Stampede Week, demonstrative of the major rift there. If a non-con gets it, don't be surprised if it is a Liberal.

[gantenbein]

Originally Posted by Doug

Calgary would cease being Calgary if it ever elected an NDP representative.

Are you including provincial representation in that bold statement? MLA Bob Hawkesworth wasn't that long ago.

[suburbia]

I hear things are coming down the pipe pretty quick for the nominations. There is a line-up for the cons as people think that is the only way into parliament. On the non-con side, looks like for the Liberals it is between old timer Harvey Locke and new entrant Rahim Sajan (the guy behind TEDxCalgary). Sajan has a web-site (http://www.teamrahim.ca/) but I haven't seen one from Locke.

Curious. How many of you engaged folks have a membership for one of the national parties? Seems to me, a lot of the action is actually at the nominations stage. As an example, if you want a non-con, you likely need to have the right type of candidate. That means getting involved early at the nomination selection race intra-party.

[suburbia]

Interesting article about Calgary-Centre by iPolitics - worthy of a read:
http://www.ipolitics.ca/2012/07/16/s...re-race-begin/

And another from CBC's inside politics blog:
http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/insi...nd-durham.html

[ungodlycrosscheck]

Move is underway to run one opposition candidate. Don't count those chickens just yet

As you've described it, any "move", consumated or not, would be a significant political development that could foreshadow a merger of Canada's political left.

If true, what you broadcast is a potential game changer. As I see it, any such "move" could result in one of two situations:
A) An agreement whereby one party would vacate the playing field in order to increase the odds of success of another party's candidate
B) A joint NDP-Liberal candidate which would constitute a re-drawing of Canada's political map.

For now we'll set aside the far more complex questions of how the boards of the respective Liberal and NDP Cgy Centre riding associations would share resources, an especially complex challenge given the NDP has a centralized system for financing elections whereas the Liberals (and Conservatives) have a de-centralized approach.

Instead, for now I think the important question is one of the credibility of this "move". And here is where I come to my question...

Is it being lead by grassroots activists or is this move being stick handled by actual party members at the EDA and National HQ level? I strongly suspect the answer lies in the former but you seem like a very dialed in fellow so I'll look forward to getting an education.

[Elbownian]

Originally Posted by ungodlycrosscheck

As you've described it, any "move", consumated or not, would be a significant political development that could foreshadow a merger of Canada's political left.

And here's where it'll ultimately fall apart: the Liberals are a centrist party, so there's really no left to merge.

What little I've read suggests that all four federal parties are, at present, planning to run a candidate in Calgary Centre. The single candidate idea mainly seems to be coming out of the NDP camp, and is more of a "vote for the official opposition if you don't want a Conservative" than an actual organized multi-party endeavour. Not to say that can't change, but with Mulcair seeming to be as keen to demolish the Liberals as Harper, a formally coordinated effort doesn't seem likely to me. Regardless, I sadly don't see much chance of anything but a Conservative win in Calgary-Centre. Much of the indignation directed towards the Conservatives is coming from those who already didn't support them, and I don't think it'll erode support enough to open the door for an upset, even if only a single opposition candidate runs.

As a theoretical exercise though, if only one party were to appear on the ballot, which makes the most sense? The NDP has the benefit of being the official opposition, but are generally perceived as too far left for the "average" Albertan to support. The Liberals have been the runner-up in the riding in the last four elections, but continue to carry NEP baggage that prevents some people from voting for them under any circumstances. The Green Party has had some strong showings recently, but are often dismissed as a one-trick pony by many voters. Who would have the most legitimate chance?

[suburbia]

Originally Posted by Elbownian

And here's where it'll ultimately fall apart: the Liberals are a centrist party, so there's really no left to merge.

Correct. I think strategically, a non-Con option would need to be centrist. The hope would be that the left would recognize that it is better getting a centrist in for Calgary-Centre rather than all jumping in there, splitting the votes, and getting con'ed again.

[monocle]

Howa'bout a "Let's work with the Oilsands*"-minded Green for Centre?


*Any "Tarsands" rhetoric would have to be mitigated, if possible.

[Bassic Lab]

Originally Posted by Elbownian

And here's where it'll ultimately fall apart: the Liberals are a centrist party, so there's really no left to merge.

What little I've read suggests that all four federal parties are, at present, planning to run a candidate in Calgary Centre. The single candidate idea mainly seems to be coming out of the NDP camp, and is more of a "vote for the official opposition if you don't want a Conservative" than an actual organized multi-party endeavour. Not to say that can't change, but with Mulcair seeming to be as keen to demolish the Liberals as Harper, a formally coordinated effort doesn't seem likely to me. Regardless, I sadly don't see much chance of anything but a Conservative win in Calgary-Centre. Much of the indignation directed towards the Conservatives is coming from those who already didn't support them, and I don't think it'll erode support enough to open the door for an upset, even if only a single opposition candidate runs.

As a theoretical exercise though, if only one party were to appear on the ballot, which makes the most sense? The NDP has the benefit of being the official opposition, but are generally perceived as too far left for the "average" Albertan to support. The Liberals have been the runner-up in the riding in the last four elections, but continue to carry NEP baggage that prevents some people from voting for them under any circumstances. The Green Party has had some strong showings recently, but are often dismissed as a one-trick pony by many voters. Who would have the most legitimate chance?

The NDP came in second in five of the eight Calgary ridings and every other riding in Alberta except Edmonton-Strathcona where they came in first. Across all of Alberta, the NDP won 16.8% of the vote compared to 9.3% for the Liberals. If the NDP is too far left for the "average" Albertan, then the Liberals are too Liberal for damn near any Albertan.

In elections 2+2 rarely equals 4 and there are a fair number of NDP-Conservative swing voters in this country, particularly in the west. Running a centrist Liberal with the hope of winning the NDP's voters is a surefire way of alienating Conservative/Liberal voters who would view any accord as a move too far to the left along with most NDP voters.

[Elbownian]

Originally Posted by monocle

Howa'bout a "Let's work with the Oilsands*"-minded Green for Centre?

Greens would likely run William Hamilton again. While he doesn't appear to have been an outspoken opponent, he does favour economic diversification. Seems to be primarily concerned with urban sustainability issues and public transit though.

Err, Bassic Lab, I tossed this out as a theoretical exercise. I was only listing off some common perceptions (and misperceptions) of each party, and it wasn't my intent to peddle any one over the other. For the record: I believe I've voted for five different parties over the last five elections, so it's not like I'm trying to shill for anybody here. That said, if you check the Calgary-Centre results since 2006, you'll see that the Liberals were runners-up each time, though the NDP did see a substantial surge in support in 2010. Not trying to denigrate the NDPs remarkable performance last time out (I supported the "Orange Crush" myself) - just stating some facts based on the numbers for this riding.

[suburbia]

So John Mar is out of the Conservatives nomination race:
http://www.calgaryherald.com/news/ca...878/story.html

The word on the street is that Mar was told to "go jump in a lake" by the conservative overlords because he is not right wing enough. It is better to zap him early rather than get in a situation later on where it looks like they are undercutting democracy at the nomination race level later on.

Personally, if indeed he was booted, I think John Mar should run as an independent conservative. I'm sure he'd get some support.

[artvandelay]

Originally Posted by suburbia

So John Mar is out of the Conservatives nomination race:
http://www.calgaryherald.com/news/ca...878/story.html

Gotta give the man credit where it is due - he may not be the best alderman, but he's easily the best dressed on council.

[Jimby]

Bronconnier for Liberal candidate in Calgary Centre?

[suburbia]

Originally Posted by Jimby

Bronconnier for Liberal candidate in Calgary Centre?

That would be interesting, but I think what Naheed was able to achieve is only possible with a newer face. Just a thought.

[fusili]

This race is wide open. Calgary Centre is essentially the same riding as Calgary-Buffalo in the Provincial legislature, which has voted Kent Hehr (liberal) for several terms now. Plus, Ward 8 had the highest support for Nenshi. It is a very centrist riding. If the CPC runs a candidate who is too right wing, it may alienate the constituency and result in a coup for the liberals (or a united left-centrist party).

[ByeByeBaby]

Originally Posted by suburbia

That would be interesting, but I think what Naheed was able to achieve is only possible with a newer face. Just a thought.

I think if any of the three left-wing parties nominated a high-profile candidate, they would have a decent shot. Richardson has been 55%-56% in previous elections, but that's with all the left-wingers knowing that they are wasting their vote; he had 51% running for the first time, and the Liberal candidate marshalled around 30% of the support. And a by-election is especially unpredictable in terms of turnout. A high-profile candidate like Bronconnier (even Barb Higgins) would send a signal, "okay, here's the person we're all lining up behind", just like Joe Clark did. I have my preferences between the Liberals, NDP and Greens, but I'd vote for any of them if I thought they could win.

[suburbia]

Originally Posted by ByeByeBaby

I think if any of the three left-wing parties nominated a high-profile candidate, they would have a decent shot. Richardson has been 55%-56% in previous elections, but that's with all the left-wingers knowing that they are wasting their vote; he had 51% running for the first time, and the Liberal candidate marshalled around 30% of the support. And a by-election is especially unpredictable in terms of turnout. A high-profile candidate like Bronconnier (even Barb Higgins) would send a signal, "okay, here's the person we're all lining up behind", just like Joe Clark did. I have my preferences between the Liberals, NDP and Greens, but I'd vote for any of them if I thought they could win.

Just one correction. The Liberals are not a "left-wing party".

[suburbia]

Former PMO staffer throws hat into Conservative nomination race for Calgary-Centre
http://blogs.calgaryherald.com/2012/...ew-candidates/

On an unrelated matter ...

Ex-PMO aide charged with Fraud
http://www.ctvnews.ca/canada/ex-pmo-...fraud-1.895401

[suburbia]

Well - could get interesting soon.

http://rabble.ca/blogs/bloggers/djcl...calgary-cent-0

Conservative nomination race August 25
Liberal nomination race September 15
NDP not sure yet, but first they need someone to run

Facebook:
Stefan Spargo doesn't list friends
Jon Lord doesn't list friends
Joan Crockatt doesn't list friends
Rick Billington has 59 friends
Greg McLean - couldn't find him
Joe Soares - couldn't find him
Rahim Sajan has 451 friends
Harvey Locke has 201 friends

[DizzyEdge]

I have over 600 friends, I should run.