Calgary Economy

[misher]

Originally Posted by milomilo

I don't really agree with per-industry special tax rates, but this should benefit Alberta almost, if not as much as BC.

I just found it funny because one of the biggest arguments against twinning the pipeline was increased tanker traffic and how it may disturb the whales/environment. And here BC is shipping LNG to China.

[Rollerstud98]

Not the same route, but is the same route I think or close to that the tanker moratorium has been imposed on.

[milomilo]

Only oil tankers docking in Canada north of Vancouver Island though, conveniently.

[suburbia]

Sharing from the airport thread, given passenger numbers are an indication of Calgary's economic activity

Originally Posted by hollywoodcory

February stats:

Domestic: 879,128 (+5.8%)
Transborder: 272,435 (+5.3%)
International: 178,942 (+4.7%)
February Total: 1,330,505 (+5.7%)
2019 Overall Total: 2,707,515 (+5.72%)

https://www.yyc.com/en-us/media/fact...tatistics.aspx

[lubicon]

Posted by Chad in the Canada section but worthy of posting here as well. There hasn't been much good news in Calgary lately so nice to see this even if the scale is somewhat small. Logically it makes sense to be on the Prairies rather than Toronto, it will be interesting to see where they select a location.

https://calgaryherald.com/business/l...ers-to-calgary

[suburbia]

Originally Posted by lubicon

Posted by Chad in the Canada section but worthy of posting here as well. There hasn't been much good news in Calgary lately so nice to see this even if the scale is somewhat small. Logically it makes sense to be on the Prairies rather than Toronto, it will be interesting to see where they select a location.

https://calgaryherald.com/business/l...ers-to-calgary

I saw a post by Ken Lima-Coelo on FB that there were two companies moving to Calgary. Not sure of the other one - does anyone else know?

Anyway, this and the new downtown vacancy rate having gone down together become a cautious indicator of things turning around for Calgary. The real key will be further economic diversification for certain. At a provincial level, the rail plan for oil will also help, undoubtedly.

[jawagord]

Originally Posted by suburbia

I saw a post by Ken Lima-Coelo on FB that there were two companies moving to Calgary. Not sure of the other one - does anyone else know?

Anyway, this and the new downtown vacancy rate having gone down together become a cautious indicator of things turning around for Calgary. The real key will be further economic diversification for certain. At a provincial level, the rail plan for oil will also help, undoubtedly.

A turnaround, really? You focus on the unimportant, while ignoring the reality of job losses and tax increases. The rail car program is stupidity, it will be cancelled after the election by whoever wins. There’s no economic case for shipping that much oil by rail, you can’t have a high Alberta oil price and high rail shipments. And since the Alberta government has taken steps to end low oil prices there’s no path forward for increased crude by rail. Factor in the other unintended consequence of increased oil by rail to potentially (highly likely at some point) hurt all other rail shippers, particularly the agricultural sector, and it’s dead, dead, dead.

https://calgary.ctvnews.ca/calgary-s...uary-1.4289434

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calga...sses-1.5089234

https://calgaryherald.com/news/local...perty-tax-hike

The company said it would cut back shipments because the curtailments had resulted in narrower differences between prices for crude sold in Alberta and in the U.S. and thus impaired the economic case for paying rail fees to win better prices on the U.S. Gulf Coast.

https://globalnews.ca/news/5051774/c...rta-shipments/

https://calgaryherald.com/business/l...-still-fearful

However, Ward Toma — general manager of the Alberta Canola Producers Commission — said farmers have little faith in assurances by the rail companies. Twice in the past five years, higher-than-expected crop volumes (combined with cold weather that forced the railways to run shorter trains) created a grain shipping backlog that left crops stranded in bins and elevators across the Prairies and led to billions of dollars in lost sales. At the same time, crude-by-rail exports have been growing, hitting an all-time high of 330,000 barrels per day in November.

“The premier mentioned the railways have contractual arrangements with other shippers and are subject to penalties if they don’t meet their targets,” Toma said. “Well, they’ve had contractual arrangements with grain shippers in the past and grain hasn’t moved.”

https://calgaryherald.com/business/l...-still-fearful

[suburbia]

Originally Posted by jawagord

The company said it would cut back shipments because the curtailments had resulted in narrower differences between prices for crude sold in Alberta and in the U.S. and thus impaired the economic case for paying rail fees to win better prices on the U.S. Gulf Coast.

https://globalnews.ca/news/5051774/c...rta-shipments/

I'm consistently blown away by how much you do not read other people's responses to your banter. We've covered this territory on other threads already Jawagord, and you are well aware that the reason the price differential decreased was because of the successful NDP move to limit production. This is *good* for the oil and gas business, however in the long term, the plan would be to open up the taps again, which would then require the oil by rail plan else risk more negative pressure on the price of our oil.

To present this in a negative was makes zero sense.

[jawagord]

Originally Posted by suburbia

I'm consistently blown away by how much you do not read other people's responses to your banter. We've covered this territory on other threads already Jawagord, and you are well aware that the reason the price differential decreased was because of the successful NDP move to limit production. This is *good* for the oil and gas business, however in the long term, the plan would be to open up the taps again, which would then require the oil by rail plan else risk more negative pressure on the price of our oil.

To present this in a negative was makes zero sense.

No Sub, you just continue ignoring reality and spouting your flawed logic. Temporarily cutting production was good for oil prices, but it also showed how dramatically dependant oil by rail is on high price differential, you can’t have both which is why the next government will cancel the rail car contract, loudly if it’s a UCP government, quietly if it’s an ND government.

But back to the point, oil cutbacks are not good for Calgary’s employment situation, you don’t fix the Calgary economy by cutting back the industry. We need an expanding industry which we will only get with expanded pipelines to new markets, both gas and oil pipelines.

[milomilo]

Originally Posted by suburbia

I'm consistently blown away by how much you do not read other people's responses to your banter. We've covered this territory on other threads already Jawagord, and you are well aware that the reason the price differential decreased was because of the successful NDP move to limit production. This is *good* for the oil and gas business, however in the long term, the plan would be to open up the taps again, which would then require the oil by rail plan else risk more negative pressure on the price of our oil.

To present this in a negative was makes zero sense.

Your posts show you don't actually understand any of the economics, you're just parroting party lines. While one or the other is justifiable, it is very difficult to reconcile both mandating reduced oil production to reduce oil by rail demand, while also increasing supply of rail capacity. The whole point of capping production is so we ship less by rail.

[zahav]

National Geographic just posted a pretty scathing article about the oilsands, and went into the politicians and policy side of it as opposed to just the nature part:

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/e...le-fight-back/

[BlaineN]

Originally Posted by zahav

National Geographic just posted a pretty scathing article about the oilsands, and went into the politicians and policy side of it as opposed to just the nature part:

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/e...le-fight-back/

I read through it, and while there is some truth to it obviously, it's also slanted scaremongering at its very worst. The usual article written by some environmentalist somewhere.

[milomilo]

It's basically an opinion piece, not really sure why that is relevant here.

[suburbia]

Originally Posted by milomilo

While one or the other is justifiable, it is very difficult to reconcile both mandating reduced oil production to reduce oil by rail demand, while also increasing supply of rail capacity.

No - not exactly. Capping production, which was also suggested by the UCP, was a short term solution to a massive differential that was creeping up. Once a greater bandwidth of rail (underwritten by the government) come on stream, the cap would be lifted.

[Corndogger]

Fresh produce market to set up shop at New Horizon Mall

A new tenant has signed on at the New Horizon Mall in Rocky View County and residents on the north side of the city will soon have a new farmers’ market to purchase fresh produce from.



Prairie Horizon Fresh Market will occupy a large space at the mall and is expected to provide about 150 jobs.

Ken and Tracy Aylesworth are behind the initiative and have been in the produce business for over 15 years.

The Aylesworths managed the Avenida Food Hall & Fresh Market in Calgary and were also owners of the Symons Valley Ranch Farmers Market, which was destroyed in a fire in 2017.

"Extremely excited, we’ve had the good fortune to be involved in a number of other markets in the city and today is a very exciting day for New Horizon Mall and for Prairie Horizon Fresh Market. We think that this will really help throughout the mall but also into the neighbourhoods of northeast, northwest and Airdrie,” said Ken.

The market will house a variety of vendors whose offerings include; fresh fruits and vegetables, baked goods, beverages and ethnic specialties.

The year-round market is scheduled to open to the public in late summer.

“We’re excited to welcome them and we’re looking forward to the opening in the summer of 2019,” said Scott Smith, General Manager of New Horizon Mall.

Source: https://calgary.ctvnews.ca/fresh-pro...mall-1.4376061

[SpongeG]

'Reverse migration' sees Calgary businesses moving back downtown from the suburbs

Colliers International says trend is putting a dent in the city's daunting downtown office vacancy rate
The Canadian Press · Posted: Apr 16, 2019

Colliers International says a rising trend of "reverse migration" is starting to bring office tenants back into Calgary's core, resulting in a decline in the downtown vacancy rate during the first three months of the year.

The commercial realtor says the vacancy rate slipped to 25.23 per cent from 26.45 per cent in the last quarter of 2018, thanks to tenants moving back downtown to be closer to clients or to take advantage of aggressive terms being offered by landlords.

It says it expects the trend to continue through the year driven by numerous small transactions as most tenants needing more than 20,000 square feet with upcoming lease expiries this year and next have already completed transactions.

...

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calga...gary-1.5100148

[lubicon]

I wish my company was one of those. Rumors around the office are we might leave the core entirely once our lease comes up this summer. We only have a small sales group downtown and the landlord is not willing to offer better terms so apparently we are looking at moving out entirely.

[suburbia]

Resulting from reduced confidence in Jason Kenney's Unite the alt-Right UCP government:

- Trident Exploration Corp has filed for bankruptcy, offloading $329M of well capping costs on the Alberta tax-payer (in effect, a sort of tax right-off for them): https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calga...down-1.5119125
- Kenney has commended the national carbon tax relative to the provincial one. By dropping the provincial tax and going along with the federal, the province in-effect loses control of that tax revenue
- BC Premier has confirmed that in conversation with Kenney, Kenney said shutting the taps was just a campaign ploy that he is not enacting. Numerous experts confirm that Alberta would not be allowed to shut the taps given the constitution
- China announced that it is stopping importing Alberta Pork from Red Deer's Olymel LP: https://nationalpost.com/commodities...f-9904ccd43ae8
- Kenney is claiming he never said the emissions cap will be lifted (during the campaign the UCP executive said indeed that dropping the cap is part of Kenney's campaign, the the media reported it as such, but now Jason is doing a flip-flop): https://www.macleans.ca/politics/jas...ly-than-scary/

He’s also walked back the United Conservative Party’s plan to scrap a 100-megatonne cap on oil sands emissions, a limit Notley adopted as a compromise between environmentalists and oil sands executives. While this wasn’t explicit in the UCP platform, top officials told reporters in an anonymous background briefing it was indeed part of the agenda. Now in power, Kenney is shrugging off what his advisers got planted in the media, saying it’s not in his immediate plans.

[suburb]

CREB update for Calgary housing continues a diverging trend between detached homes and apartments.

August 2020 - Detached (y/y change)
Sales: +5%
New listings: -7%
Inventory: -15%
Months of supply (actual): -19% (3.27)
Benchmark: +1%

August 2020 - Apartment (y/y change)
Sales: -20%
New listings: -9%
Inventory: -1%
Months of supply (actual): +24% (7.44)
Benchmark: -2%

Clearly detached is doing alright, but not so much for apartments. The sales being down 20% when they are up for detached is extremely concerning. The result is the increase in months of supply - more than double detached! This suggests more continued pressure on apartments.

REF: https://www.creb.com/-/media/Public/...mary.pdf?la=en

[Prairiedawg]

Walmart is closing the Deer Valley location

https://globalnews.ca/news/7697306/w...tore-closures/