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  #61  
Old Posted May 17, 2019, 4:05 PM
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Maybe we'll get some pork for St. John's

But yeah NDP are powerfully positioned.

I hope the PCs ditch Ches soon. Liberals likely won't win the next election and after his speech last night I do not want him as Premier. I mean, he even had Rebel Media at his campaign headquarters. I've never been so quickly turned completely off of someone before.

I hope Dwight stays on. The top contenders to replace him (say Parsons or maybe Byrne) are rabidly pro-Bay, anti-Town. Parsons would move the capital to Burgeo if he could get away with it.
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  #62  
Old Posted May 17, 2019, 9:01 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SignalHillHiker View Post
Maybe we'll get some pork for St. John's

But yeah NDP are powerfully positioned.

I hope the PCs ditch Ches soon. Liberals likely won't win the next election and after his speech last night I do not want him as Premier. I mean, he even had Rebel Media at his campaign headquarters. I've never been so quickly turned completely off of someone before.

I hope Dwight stays on. The top contenders to replace him (say Parsons or maybe Byrne) are rabidly pro-Bay, anti-Town. Parsons would move the capital to Burgeo if he could get away with it.
I think Ches turned a lot of people off last night with his remarks.

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  #63  
Old Posted Jun 2, 2019, 6:59 PM
delesseps delesseps is offline
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Paul Lane Approached To Be Speaker In House Of Assembly

According to VOCM:
Quote:
Lane says while he’d love to be Speaker, there’s something even bigger at play. He made a promise to his constituents to be a strong voice to keep government accountable. If he accepted the Speaker’s position, he would effectively be muzzled.
Electing an independent or opposition MHA as speaker would create a de-facto majority for the Liberal government, since the speaker votes with the government on matters of confidence in the Westminster system.
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  #64  
Old Posted Jun 3, 2019, 12:55 PM
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Originally Posted by delesseps View Post
According to VOCM:


Electing an independent or opposition MHA as speaker would create a de-facto majority for the Liberal government, since the speaker votes with the government on matters of confidence in the Westminster system.
It's a no brainer to try it. They obviously hoped the apparent prestige of Speaker, would sway Lane into the role.

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  #65  
Old Posted Jun 3, 2019, 1:13 PM
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I'd say it's likely that the Liberals will try this, but all other parties will know the consequences. They may not want an election right now, but all non-governing parties will want to have the option to go back to the polls in a years time. By giving up one of their own to be speaker they'll be locking themselves in for 4 years.
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  #66  
Old Posted Jun 3, 2019, 4:45 PM
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Originally Posted by Marty_Mcfly View Post
I'd say it's likely that the Liberals will try this, but all other parties will know the consequences. They may not want an election right now, but all non-governing parties will want to have the option to go back to the polls in a years time. By giving up one of their own to be speaker they'll be locking themselves in for 4 years.
Good try by the liberals, but a futile one at the very best. Both Independent MHAs were formal liberals who had some sort of falling out with the party. I can't help but feel the liberals are grasping at straws here.
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  #67  
Old Posted Jun 10, 2019, 2:01 PM
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Some insight to the federal election and polling predictions (via 338Canada):



Liberals and Conservatives are in a statistical tie, and the Green are soon set to overtake the NDP. Since the beginning of the year, the Liberals are -13%, Conservatives +17%, NDP -4%, Greens +2% and Peoples Party -0.5% provincially.

The data from 338 is simulated through polling, voting habits, and previous results. Based on these numbers if an election were held today, the Liberals would win 4 seats and the Conservatives would win 3.

Based off numbers alone, the NDP have fallen to third place in St. John's East, the most likely seat for them to win in the province. The polling doesn't take into consideration the fact that Jack Harris is running in the district again, but with a regional poll having the NDP at just 9% regional support even he may have an uphill battle to climb if he wants to win back his seat.
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  #68  
Old Posted Oct 16, 2019, 10:33 PM
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Marty's Federal Election Analysis - NL Districts

Going to give some insight into the election as it pertains to the NL districts. I'll have some historic analysis and some projections for election night (including vote share).

But for now, lets talk about social media, and more importantly: influence and perceived social media momentum.

We can classify who's winning the social media campaign based simply off the number of likes their respective Facebook page has. However, this is a bit of an unfair comparison: incumbents who have been in government for years, or have previously served in government, will obviously have greater numbers on their respective pages. To try and circumvent this, I've also monitored weekly growth of everyone's social media over a 2-week period; this will likely give a better picture of who truly has the momentum (i.e. who's base is growing vs. stagnating vs. in some instances, shrinking).

For each district I compiled both the number of likes AND follows for a page at 3 points: October 2nd, October 9th, and October 16th. This gives us 2 7-day periods to monitor growth, as well as one larger 14-day period. For pages that launched mid-way through the period, there is a noticeable large 7-day spike period.

The results, by riding:

* INC- incumbent
(likes/follows)

Avalon

Ken Macdonald (LIB-INC) - Page launched August 28 2015
Oct 2: 1533/1609
Oct 9: 1545/1623 (7-day change: +12/+14)
Oct 16: 1548/1626 (7-day change: +3/+3)
14-day change: +15/+17

Matthew Chapman (CON) - Page launched August 11 2019
Oct 2: 450/462
Oct 9: 555/568 (7-day change: +105/+106)
Oct 16: 671/688 (7-day change: +116/+120)
14-day change: +221/+226

Lea Movelle (NDP) - Page launched October 9 2019
Oct 2: N/A
Oct 9: 361/365 (7-day change: +361/+365)
Oct 16: 623/632 (7-day change: +262/+267)
14-day change: N/A

Greg Malone (GRN) - Page launched July 22 2019
Oct 2: 905/915
Oct 9: 932/943 (7-day change: +27/+28)
Oct 16: 993/1006 (7-day change: +61/+63)
14-day change: +88/+91

Nathan Moore (PPC) - No social media presence


Bonavista-Burin-Trinity

Churence Rogers (LIB-INC) - Page launched September 10 2017
Oct 2: 2036/2080
Oct 9: 2041/2086 (7-day change: +5/+6)
Oct 16: 2047/2093 (7-day change: +6/+7)
14-day change: +11/+13

Sharon Vokey (CON) - Page launched September 13 2019
Oct 2: 479/487
Oct 9: 527/535 (7-day change: +48/+48)
Oct 16: 559/567 (7-day change: +32/+32)
14-day change: +80/+80

Matthew Cooper (NCP) - No social media presence

Kelsey Reichel (GRN) - Page launched July 22 2019
Oct 2: 326/330
Oct 9: 330/334 (7-day change: +4/+4)
Oct 16: 331/336 (7-day change: +1/+2)
14-day change: +5/+6


Coast of Bays - Central - Notre Dame

Scott Simms (LIB-INC) - Page launched February 14 2011
Oct 2: 4636/4727
Oct 9: 4641/4732 (7-day change: +5/+5)
Oct 16: 4645/4736 (7-day change: +4/+4)
14-day change: +9/+9

Alex Bracci (CON) - Page launched May 28 2019
Oct 2: 211/221
Oct 9: 255/267 (7-day change: +44/+46)
Oct 16: 283/296 (7-day change: +28/+29)
14-day change: +72/+75

Noel Joe (NDP) - Page launched August 1 2019
Oct 2: 429/433
Oct 9: 473/479 (7-day change: +44/+46)
Oct 16: 498/504 (7-day change: +25/+25)
14-day change: +69/+71

Bryon White (GRN) - Page launched UNKNOWN
Oct 2: 256
Oct 9: 274 (7-day change: +18)
Oct 16: 282(7-day change: +8)
14-day change: +26


Labrador

Yvonne Jones (LIB-INC) - Page launched August 16 2012
Oct 2: 9896/9838
Oct 9: 9909/9855 (7-day change: +13/+17)
Oct 16: 9907/9854 (7-day change: -2/-1)
14-day change: +11/+16

Larry Flemming (CON) - Page launched August 12 2019
Oct 2: 442/446
Oct 9: 496/501 (7-day change: +54/+55)
Oct 16: 819/826 (7-day change: +323/+325)
14-day change: +377/+380

Michelene Grey (NDP) - Page launched September 25 2019
Oct 2: 395/397
Oct 9: 472/478 (7-day change: +77/+81)
Oct 16: 528/536 (7-day change: +56/+58)
14-day change: +133/+139

Tyler Colbourne (GRN) - Page came online and disappeared within 2 weeks


Long Range Mountains

Gudie Hutchings (LIB-INC) - Page launched November 6 2014
Oct 2: 5795/5883
Oct 9: 5800/5887 (7-day change: +5/+4)
Oct 16: 5808/5895 (7-day change: +8/+8)
14-day change: +13/+12

Josh Eisses (CON) - Page launched September 2 2019
Oct 2: 231/248
Oct 9: 243/262 (7-day change: +12/+14)
Oct 16: 264/286 (7-day change: +21/+24)
14-day change: +33/+38

Holly Pike (NDP) - No social media presence

Lucas Knill (GRN) - Page launched July 9 2019
Oct 2: 246/255
Oct 9: 247/256 (7-day change: +1/+1)
Oct 16: 249/258 (7-day change: +2/+2)
14-day change: +3/+3


St. John's East

Nick Whalen (LIB-INC) - Page launched December 7 2014
Oct 2: 2184/2251
Oct 9: 2222/2293 (7-day change: +38/+42)
Oct 16: 2240/2310 (7-day change: +18/+17)
14-day change: +56/+59

Jodey Wall (CON) - Page launched August 28 2019
Oct 2: 863/873
Oct 9: 905/921 (7-day change: +42/+48)
Oct 16: 938/955 (7-day change: +33/+34)
14-day change: +75/+82

Jack Harris (NDP) - Page launched October 4 2008
Oct 2: 3532/3518
Oct 9: 3751/3743 (7-day change: +219/+225)
Oct 16: 3890/3884 (7-day change: +139/+141)
14-day change: +358/+366

David Peters (GRN) - No social media presence


St. John's South - Mount Pearl

Seamus O'Reagan (LIB-INC) - Page launched August 17 2014
Oct 2: 11962/12448
Oct 9: 11982/12471 (7-day change: +20/+23)
Oct 16: 11999/12488 (7-day change: +17/+17)
14-day change: +37/+40

Terry Martin (CON) - Page launched July 9 2019
Oct 2: 661/678
Oct 9: 689/706 (7-day change: +28/+28)
Oct 16: 705/724 (7-day change: +19/+18)
14-day change: +47/+46

Anne Marie Anonsen (NDP) - Page launched September 12 2019
Oct 2: 223/232
Oct 9: 472/477 (7-day change: +249/+245)
Oct 16: 305/312 (7-day change: -167/-165)
14-day change: +82/+80

Alexandra Hayward (GRN) - No social media presence

Ben Ruckpaul (PPC) - Page launched August 22 2019
Oct 2: 184/194
Oct 9: 193/204 (7-day change: +9/+10)
Oct 16: 203/216 (7-day change: +10/+12)
14-day change: +19/+22

----------------------------

Ranking 14-day Social Media Momentum - Best to worst

1. Larry Flemming (Conservative - Labrador) +377
2. Jack Harris (NDP - St. John's East) +358
3. Matthew Chapman (Conservative - Avalon) +221
4. Michelene Grey (NDP - Labrador) + 133
5. Greg Malone (Green - Avalon) +88
6. Anne Marie Anonsen (NDP - St. John's South) +82
7. Sharon Vokey (Conservative - Bonavista) +80
8. Jodey Wall (Conservative - St. John's East) +75
9. Alex Bracci (Conservative - Coast of Bays) +72
10. Noel Joe (NDP - Coast of Bays) +69
11. Nick Whalen (Liberal - St. John's East) +56
12. Terry Martin (Conservative - St. John's South) +47
13. Seamus O'Reagan (Liberal - St. John's South) +37
14. Josh Eisses (Conservative - Long Range Mountains) +33
15. Bryon White (Green - Coast of Bays) +26
16. Ben Ruckpaul (Peoples - St. John's South) +19
17. Ken Macdonald (Liberal - Avalon) +15
18. Gudie Hutchings (Liberal - Long Range Mountains) +13
19. Yvonne Jones (Liberal - Labrador) +11
20. Churence Rogers (Liberal - Bonavista) +11
21. Scott Simms (Liberal - Coast of Bays) +9
22. Kelsey Reichel (Green - Bonavista) +5
23. Lucas Knill (Green - Long Range Mountains) +3

NOTES:
- The Liberals have not been able to build their bases on social media. All of their accounts have been pretty stagnant, with the exception of the St. John's candidates. It's likely possible considering how well they did last election that there's simply no one else to recruit to their team.

- Jack Harris may have the oldest account, but he also has the 2nd highest 14-day growth. You can just feel the momentum oozing from his campaign.

- Very surprising that Larry Flemming, Conservative for Labrador had the best 2-week period. It wasn't even the whole 2 weeks, he had a really good 7 day period. In the same 7-day period, his competition in Yvonne Jones lost Facebook likes on her page.

- The curious case of Anne Marie Anonsen: in one week her page explodes (+249 likes), and in the next there's a mass unliking/unfollowing (-167). Not sure what happened there.

- Avalon seems to be the district with the most overall momentum, Long Range Mountains seems to be the least. Very little movement on the LRM candidates pages.

If you want to project incumbents who may be in trouble based on how poorly they're doing to others in their district (AND I REITERATE that this is handwavey at best when comparing to these Liberal numbers for the couple of reasons already mentioned above), I'd be looking at:

- Larry Flemming (CON) OR Michelene Grey (NDP) over Yvonne Jones (LIB-INC)
- Jack Harris (NDP) over Nick Whalen (LIB-INC)
- Matthew Chapman (CON) OR Greg Malone (GRN) over Ken Macdonald (LIB-INC)
- Sharon Vokey (CON) over Churence Rogers (LIB-INC)
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  #69  
Old Posted Oct 17, 2019, 11:13 AM
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Thanks for the in-depth analysis, Marty! Not sure if others know this but social media and sentimental analysis a great way to identify underlying trends in momentum towards voting preferences - and this, of course, is correlated with likelihood of winning a district. Social media is very much a powerful tool (when used the right way).

Not sure of everything going on in the world, e.g. Brexit, Hong Kong demonstrations, Trump impeachment news, etc. but, at a national level, people seem to be more in tune with this federal election. There was a 30% increase in advanced polls this time compared to 2015 - that's a significant increase. The connection isn't felt much in NL, but I think that's geared more towards a general apathy at the federal level.
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  #70  
Old Posted Oct 19, 2019, 12:26 AM
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Historic trends



It's been difficult to get a finger on the pulse of NL federal politics for one simple reason; Danny Williams tainted the well many years ago and there's been no recovery. We have not had a normal election period since Williams launched his ABC campaign against Stephen Harper before the 2008 federal election, and its repercussions are still being felt today.

Before ABC, things in NL politics were pretty simple. Liberals and Conservatives, neck and neck, with some small fluctuation and some election oddities (1985 and 1993). Liberals were good for 40-50% of the popular vote, Conservatives good for 30-40%, and the NDP sort of just randomly flapping its arms around without making too much of an impact. Seat break down was, usually, either 5 LIB-2 CON, or 4 LIB-3 CON.

And then ABC happened. And it impacted more than just the Conservative party.

In the 2008 election, the Conservative popular vote crashed as the then-popular mecca-God Sir Daniel Williams told the masses to vote anyone but Conservative. And boy, did we ever listen. However, logic would dictate that these voters would flock to the Liberal party, right? It makes the most sense, correct?

Instead, Conservative voters brought their vote to the NDP party. The Liberal party benefited very little from the ABC campaign, jumping only ~5% in the popular vote, whereas the NDP party jumped ~20%. And much of it was concentrated in the right spot: St. John's East. Jack Harris can thank Danny Williams for his second stint as an MP. Elsewhere, the NDP pulled record high vote shares, but were not near enough to pull off additional seats (though St. John's South was relatively close).

Moving on to 2011, and Danny Williams is out of politics. The provincial government at the time has given the go-ahead for MHA's to campaign with Conservative MP's if they so wish. Danny is still well-beloved, and he's not actively pushing an ABC campaign, but he's also not singing the praises of Stephen Harper. The Conservatives are breaking out all the stops in NL, they're bringing in some big names to run for them: Fabian Manning, John Ottenheimer, just to name a few. The country is growing tired of minority after minority mandate.

What happens on election night? Well, to start....the Liberals collapsed all across the country. In Newfoundland? Not so much. A 9% drop; not unsubstantial, but compared to how the night was going to go across the country, it was nothing. Across the country, however, an Orange wave swept across the country, as Jack Layton and the NDP surged ahead in popularity for some major gains. As the ABC campaign dissipated in NL, some of those NDP voters from the last election went back to the Conservative party. While there was an orange wave across the country, the NDP vote share in the province declined. HOWEVER, that minor drop in provincial Liberal support? That was split; Liberals held well in rural NL, but absolutely tanked in urban NL. This handed the NDP a second seat in St. John's South, and the complete drop in Liberal support, plus tepid Conservative support in St. John's East lead to Jack Harris' second easy victory. Across the island though, Conservative support rebounded, though not to the same degree it was before the ABC campaign. They picked up a surprise seat in Labrador, and came close to picking up Avalon again. (NOTE: If the 2011 election were held under the current Avalon boundaries, the Conservatives would have won).

And then 2015. Danny Williams and his ABC campaign are a thing of the past, and the public perception of Williams in NL is overly negative. However, there is a new ABC campaign arising. One might say that Newfoundland was ahead of the pack on the ABC campaign. What we did in 2008 came to full light across the nation in 2015, as most of Canada had just about enough with Harper and the Conservatives. Not much to say about this; Newfoundland went with the flow of the country in this election. Conservative numbers hit an all-time low, even worse than the 2008 Danny Williams ABC campaign. However, the NDP vote also collapsed as everyone jumped on the Liberal train for some old fashioned strategic voting. Jack Harris, finally facing some stiff competition, couldn't get the job done. Ryan Clearly couldn't hold on to his NDP seat in St. John's South, and every other riding in NL was a complete Liberal blowout. Judy Foote won with one of the highest vote percentages in the country. NL followed suit with the rest of Canada and rid themselves of the Harper Conservatives.

So now enters 2019. We really have no idea what to expect since the last 3 elections were so polarizing. The ABC campaigns were more anti-Harper than they were anti-Conservative, and plenty of people have got behind the Scheer Conservative brand. And Jack Harris is back in for round 4, and the NDP are surging. Basing any projections off the last 3 elections are useless, each election since 2008 has had some external factor poisoning the electoral well in NL (ABC in 2008, 2015, and the collapse of the Liberal party in 2011). The last truly "normal" election was in 2006, and that was so long ago that it's hard to compare present day to that.

So what can we infer from history, even if it may be tainted?

- Liberal strength has often hovered around 45% provincially, even during ABC years. Last elections 65%+ is unsustainable and will drop back to the norm this election.

- The NDP could honestly be anywhere, but will likely be near 20%. They're not being handed Conservative supporters anymore.

- Conservative support is an absolute wildcard that is very hard to predict. If people associate ABC with all Conservatives, then it'll likely stay low. If it was truly an anti-Harper rhetoric, then it may rebound back to the historic average. The 2011 election is a good indicator of what a "sort of ABC but sort of not really" popular vote would look like, near 30%. It'll likely rebound back to near this anyway, with the possibility of going higher.

- The Greens will likely continue to be a non-contender, though they may be able to snag a decent chunk of votes in Avalon thanks to Greg Malone.
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  #71  
Old Posted Oct 20, 2019, 1:41 PM
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Social Media Part 2: The Home Stretch

Today is the last day of campaigning; once the clock strikes midnight tonight the candidates will have nothing else to do but sit back and wait for the results (or phone around to electorate to ask if they need rides to polls ). I've already done a real in-depth analysis of social media momentum in the weeks leading up to the election, and there are certainly some candidates who were coming in strong, especially some we weren't quite expecting. But how are things looking now, in the most critical period of the campaign?

A follow up to the original post, we're looking at the 4-day period from Wednesday, October 16th to Sunday, October 20th. In between those days there were some debates (BBT) and media appearances (CBC SJE/SJS/Avalon). Any possible sway based on those events?


Avalon

Ken Macdonald (LIB-INC)
Oct 16: 1548/1626
Oct 20: 1547/1625
4-day change: -1/-1

Matthew Chapman (CON)
Oct 16: 671/688
Oct 20: 721/739
4-day change: +50/+51

Lea Movelle (NDP)
Oct 16: 623/632
Oct 20: 656/666
4-day change: +33/+34

Greg Malone (GRN)
Oct 16: 993/1006
Oct 20: 1033/1046
4-day change: +40/+40

Nathan Moore (PPC) - No social media presence


Bonavista-Burin-Trinity

Churence Rogers (LIB-INC)
Oct 16: 2047/2093
Oct 20: 2055/2102
4-day change: +8/+9

Sharon Vokey (CON)
Oct 16: 559/567
Oct 20: 572/580
4-day change: +13/+13

Matthew Cooper (NCP) - No social media presence

Kelsey Reichel (GRN)
Oct 16: 331/336
Oct 20: 331/336
4-day change: 0/0


Coast of Bays - Central - Notre Dame

Scott Simms (LIB-INC)
Oct 16: 4645/4736
Oct 20: 4651/4743
4-day change: +6/+7

Alex Bracci (CON)
Oct 16: 283/296
Oct 20: 299/312
4-day change: +16/+16

Noel Joe (NDP)
Oct 16: 498/504
Oct 20: 507/513
4-day change: +9/+9

Bryon White (GRN)
Oct 16: 282
Oct 20: 286
4-day change: +4


Labrador

Yvonne Jones (LIB-INC)
Oct 16: 9907/9854
Oct 20: 9904/9851
44-day change: -3/-3

Larry Flemming (CON)
Oct 16: 819/826
Oct 20: 941/950
4-day change: +122/+124

Michelene Grey (NDP)
Oct 16: 528/536
Oct 20: 614/620
4-day change: +86/+84

Tyler Colbourne (GRN) - Page came online and disappeared within 2 weeks


Long Range Mountains

Gudie Hutchings (LIB-INC)
Oct 16: 5808/5895
Oct 20: 5815/5902
4-day change: +7/+7

Josh Eisses (CON)
Oct 16: 264/286
Oct 20: 270/292
4-day change: +6/+6

Holly Pike (NDP) - No social media presence

Lucas Knill (GRN)
Oct 16: 249/258
Oct 20: 248/257
4-day change: -1/-1


St. John's East

Nick Whalen (LIB-INC)
Oct 16: 2240/2310
Oct 20: 2270/2338
4-day change: +30/+28

Jodey Wall (CON)
Oct 16: 938/955
Oct 20: 971/987
4-day change: +33/+32

Jack Harris (NDP)
Oct 16: 3890/3884
Oct 20: 4035/4031
4-day change: +145/+147

David Peters (GRN) - No social media presence


St. John's South - Mount Pearl

Seamus O'Reagan (LIB-INC)
Oct 16: 11999/12488
Oct 20: 12016/12506
4-day change: +17/+18

Terry Martin (CON)
Oct 16: 705/724
Oct 20: 713/733
4-day change: +8/+9

Anne Marie Anonsen (NDP)
Oct 16: 305/312
Oct 20: 322/331
4-day change: +16/+19

Alexandra Hayward (GRN) - No social media presence

Ben Ruckpaul (PPC)
Oct 16: 203/216
Oct 20: 208/221
4-day change: +5/+5

-----------------------------

NOTES

- So who has the most momentum in the last 4 days? Jack Harris. This shouldn't really come as a surprise, Jack was already a popular candidate, and I think the surging national NDP numbers at the end of the campaign are really helping him out.

- I didn't think Labrador was going to be a race to watch, but the social media numbers are very interesting. Both the Conservatives and NDP are exploding on Facebook, whereas Yvonne Jones continues to lose page likes. Flemming and Gray account for the 2nd and 3rd highest 4 day gains, respectively.

- Avalon will also be one to keep a close eye on. The Conservatives, NDP and Greens all have considerable momentum. This will be a riding to watch for the impacts of vote-splitting, as I think the NDP and Greens both have strong results here Monday.

- Things have slowed down in Coast of Bays-Central-Notre Dame and Bonavista-Burin-Trinity. Conservatives still lead momentum, but it's nowhere near where it was previously. And things have stayed unchanged in Long Range Mountains, still slow and boring there.
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  #72  
Old Posted Oct 20, 2019, 4:01 PM
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And with that....

FINAL PREDICTIONS - NL RIDINGS

Avalon

Matthew Chapman (CON): 38%
Ken MacDonald (LIB-INC): 36%
Lea Movelle (NDP): 16%
Greg Malone (GRN): 9%
Nathan Moore (PPC): 1%

Result: Conservative GAIN


Bonavista-Burin-Trinity

Churence Rogers (LIB-INC): 46%
Sharon Vokey (CON): 43%
Matthew Cooper (NDP): 10%
Kelsey Reichel (GRN): 1%

Result: Liberal HOLD


Coast of Bays-Central-Notre Dame

Scott Simms (LIB-INC): 55%
Alex Bracci (CON): 36%
Noel Joe (NDP): 8%
Bryon White (GRN): 1%

Result: Liberal HOLD


Labrador

Yvonne Jones (LIB-INC): 39%
Larry Flemming (CON): 37%
Michelene Gray (NDP): 23%
Tyler Colbourne (GRN): 1%

Result: Liberal HOLD


Long Range Mountains

Gudie Hutchings (LIB-INC): 58%
Josh Eisses (CON): 21%
Holly Pike (NDP): 19%
Lucas Knill (GRN): 2%
Robert Miles (Veterans Coalition): 0%

Result: Liberal HOLD


St. John's East

Jack Harris (NDP): 35%
Nick Whalen (LIB-INC): 33%
Jodey Wall (CON): 29%
David Peters (GRN): 3%

Result: NDP GAIN


St. John's South - Mount Pearl

Seamus O'Regan (LIB-INC): 40%
Ann Marie Anonsen (NDP): 29%
Terry Martin (CON): 26%
Alexandra Hayward (GRN): 3%
Benjamin Ruckpaul (PPC): 2%
David Jones (Christian Heritage): 0%

Result: Liberal HOLD

------------

NOTES & BOLD PREDICTIONS

- Vote split, along with strong Conservative momentum hands the Conservatives the victory in Avalon. There are some pockets of strong Conservative support here, unlike other ridings. Greg Malone essentially hands this one to Chapman.

- Long Range Mountains has the widest margin of victory, none of the challengers to Hutchings are overly notable.

- Labrador is going to be TIGHT. That being said, Jones holds on.

- Jack wins SJE back from the Liberals in a very close race. Wall has a respectable outing but can't play spoiler.

BOLD PREDICTIONS: Not in my official prediction, but come election night and we're looking for an unexpected result....here it is.

- The Conservatives win Bonavista-Burin-Trinity by 2%. Pre-ABC the Conservative party did well in the districts which make up current-day BBT. Along with a lot of people in the district working in the oil & gas industry to some capacity. The amount of anti-Liberal rhetoric I've seen from this district the past 2'ish years has been staggering.

- Labrador flips. Coin toss as to whether it's for the NDP or Conservatives. Labrador can be....unpredictable (2011 federal election, 2019 provincial election). Momentum building for both CPC and NDP candidates in Labrador. The NDP have always done relatively well compared to other rural ridings in Labrador. Should the NDP win Labrador, they'll be in for a STRONG night across the country.
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  #73  
Old Posted Oct 20, 2019, 8:21 PM
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SignalHillHiker SignalHillHiker is offline
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Guaranteed: 5 Liberal
Guaranteed: 1 NDP (St. John's East)
Toss-up: St. John's South-Mount Pearl, where a Conservative could squeak up the middle and win with 30% of the vote.

Also guaranteed: Avalon will have the highest percentage Green vote in our history. I suspect near 10%, at most.
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  #74  
Old Posted Oct 20, 2019, 8:50 PM
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Marty_Mcfly Marty_Mcfly is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SignalHillHiker View Post
Guaranteed: 5 Liberal
Guaranteed: 1 NDP (St. John's East)
Toss-up: St. John's South-Mount Pearl, where a Conservative could squeak up the middle and win with 30% of the vote.

Also guaranteed: Avalon will have the highest percentage Green vote in our history. I suspect near 10%, at most.
I'd put this as the free-space on the NL bingo for tomorrow. No doubt it'll end up being the best showing for the Greens ever here, the real question is by how much? I said 9%, you say near 10%, I think that's a likely scenario. Anymore than that and I'll honestly be shocked.
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  #75  
Old Posted Oct 20, 2019, 11:21 PM
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I’ve wondered how Greg Malone will do. While I could see him getting ~10%, I wouldn’t be surprised if it was much less than that, like ~5%. While they know his name, I’d say many people under 45 don’t really know a lot about Greg Malone and are not voting for him because he was on some tv show years ago. Remember, Codco finished in like 1993. And the older voters who remember Malone are the least likely to vote Green.
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  #76  
Old Posted Oct 22, 2019, 1:21 PM
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Jack Harris is back in St. John's East!
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  #77  
Old Posted Oct 22, 2019, 6:11 PM
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Marty_Mcfly Marty_Mcfly is offline
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Still 3 polls waiting to report in NL (1 in Labrador, 2 in Coast of Bays) so I'll wait until all votes are in before assessing my accuracy. Some look better than others.
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  #78  
Old Posted Oct 23, 2019, 3:01 PM
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Online name-calling between Alberta, N.L. an unexpected post-election fallout

Well, it looks like the west is not very impressed with how NL (and the rest of Atlantic Canada) voted during this election. There are legitimate concerns here, many tying directly to this province. However, resorting to name calling is counter-productive and very sad in my opinion. This does no more than create divisiveness and, ultimately, that'll just hurt everyone.

CBC NL
Date: Oct 23, 2019
Author: Stephanie Tobin

Quote:

Alberta and Newfoundland and Labrador have a lot in common, including a shared economic reliance on oil, but the comments of social media users took on a disturbing twist after Monday night's federal election.

In Newfoundland and Labrador, six of the seven seats went to Liberal incumbents; in Alberta, voters chose Conservative candidates in all but one of its 34 ridings, shutting out the Liberals.

The lacklustre federal campaign in Newfoundland and Labrador meant the election results were no surprise, much like the Conservative results in Alberta, where the campaign saw people voice concerns about the oil industry, economy and jobs.

But then came the online fallout.

...
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfo...lout-1.5331654
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Old Posted Oct 23, 2019, 5:00 PM
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There are some pretty sad comments coming from Albertans on social media...
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  #80  
Old Posted Oct 23, 2019, 8:04 PM
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Marty_Mcfly Marty_Mcfly is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by statbass View Post
Well, it looks like the west is not very impressed with how NL (and the rest of Atlantic Canada) voted during this election. There are legitimate concerns here, many tying directly to this province. However, resorting to name calling is counter-productive and very sad in my opinion. This does no more than create divisiveness and, ultimately, that'll just hurt everyone.

CBC NL
Date: Oct 23, 2019
Author: Stephanie Tobin



https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfo...lout-1.5331654
Legitimate concerns? Nah. Just a bunch of bitches who are upset that they didn't get what they wanted. Their complaints make me want to vote Liberal even more.
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