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  #81  
Old Posted Oct 23, 2019, 8:52 PM
rthomasd rthomasd is offline
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I read an article -
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opin...b+Article+Link

by Gary Manson who says we shouldn't feel sorry for Alberta. An interesting perspective. No doubting that Alberta has been hurt by oil declines, etc but most of the Alberta oil problem is that they are captive to the US because they can't get oil out. The Liberals were trying to help by buying a pipeline but have problems with the Supreme Court and some native groups as well as some BC groups, so why blame Libs and vote Con ? We certainly weren't well served the last time there was a PC government on Ottawa.

The article says Alberta is running a $10 B deficit while next door, BC, similar size and population has a small surplus without oil The difference - low / no taxes in Alberta. If Alberta had the same taxes as BC, the second lowest in the country, they'd have almost no deficit. and no changes to spending. Also low unemployment in Alberta, etc. So there seems to be a lot of spin going on.
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  #82  
Old Posted Oct 24, 2019, 9:35 PM
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And with that....

FINAL PREDICTIONS - NL RIDINGS
And results. Some predictions were pretty close, others not so much.

PREDICTION %/ ACTUAL%/ DIFFERENCE

Avalon

Matthew Chapman (CON): 38% / 31.0% / 7%
Ken MacDonald (LIB-INC): 36% / 46.1% / 10.1%
Lea Movelle (NDP): 16% / 17.6% / 1.6%
Greg Malone (GRN): 9% / 5.4% / 3.6%
Nathan Moore (PPC): 1% / N/A

Prediction: Conservative GAIN
Correct? NO.


Bonavista-Burin-Trinity

Churence Rogers (LIB-INC): 46% / 45.7% / 1.7%
Sharon Vokey (CON): 43% / 39.5 % / 3.5%
Matthew Cooper (NDP): 10% / 12.0% / 2.0%
Kelsey Reichel (GRN): 1% / 2.9% / 1.9%

Prediction: Liberal HOLD
Correct? YES


Coast of Bays-Central-Notre Dame

Scott Simms (LIB-INC): 55% / 48.2% / 7.2%
Alex Bracci (CON): 36% / 35.5% / 0.5%
Noel Joe (NDP): 8% / 12.3% / 4.3%
Bryon White (GRN): 1% / 4.0% / 3.0%

Prediction: Liberal HOLD
Correct: YES


Labrador

Yvonne Jones (LIB-INC): 39% / 42.3% / 3.3%
Larry Flemming (CON): 37% / 31.2% / 6.8%
Michelene Gray (NDP): 23% / 24.6% / 1.6%
Tyler Colbourne (GRN): 1% / 2.0% 1.0%

Prediction: Liberal HOLD
Correct: YES


Long Range Mountains

Gudie Hutchings (LIB-INC): 58% / 47.4% / 11.6%
Josh Eisses (CON): 21% / 28.3% / 7.3%
Holly Pike (NDP): 19% / 19.8% 0.8%
Lucas Knill (GRN): 2% / 3.5% / 1.5%
Robert Miles (Veterans Coalition): 0% / N/A

Prediction: Liberal HOLD
Correct: YES


St. John's East

Jack Harris (NDP): 35% / 46.9% / 11.9%
Nick Whalen (LIB-INC): 33% / 33.2% / 0.2%
Jodey Wall (CON): 29% / 18.1% / 11.8%
David Peters (GRN): 3% / 1.8% 1.2%

Prediction: NDP GAIN
Correct: YES

St. John's South - Mount Pearl

Seamus O'Regan (LIB-INC): 40% / 50.9% / 10.9%
Ann Marie Anonsen (NDP): 29% / 27.1% / 1.9%
Terry Martin (CON): 26% / 19.1% / 6.9%
Alexandra Hayward (GRN): 3% / 1.8% / 1.2%
Benjamin Ruckpaul (PPC): 2% / 0.8% 1.2%
David Jones (Christian Heritage): 0% / N/A

Prediction: Liberal HOLD
Correct: YES
------------

Closest predictions: Nick Whalen, LIB (0.2%), Alex Bracci, CON (0.5%), Holly Pike, NDP (0.8%)

Worst predictions: Jack Harris, NDP (11.9%), Jodey Wall, CON (11.8%), Gudie Hutchings, LIB (11.6%)


Average absolute error per party:
Liberal: 6.4%
Conservative: 6.3%
NDP: 3.4%
Green: 1.9%

- Looks like in rural NL (minus Avalon) I overestimated Liberal support. I was expecting over 50% for Hutchings and Simms considering their relative popularity.

- Pretty good on Conservative support in Coast of Bays and Bonavista. Too low in Long Range Mountains (I thought the candidate was too weak to get that number of votes), a little too high for Avalon and Labrador. Way off the mark in St. John's.

- NDP support overall pretty good MINUS Jack Harris, who I thought would be a bit lower. Thought that'd be a closer race than it actually was.

- Avalon I overestimated Green support. Throw that extra 4% on the Liberals, plus move a few conservatives points to the Liberals, and that was it. Thought vote split would be more of a problem with the Green vote.

- I think I'm the only person to predict the Conservative upsurge in Bonavista-Burin-Trinity. People can act surprised about it, but I'm not. They did well in Coast of Bays too, but more pundits predicted that.

Overall:

- The Liberals fell back to the historic levels of support in the province. There honestly was nowhere to go but down for them after a historic high. Their numbers are pretty even across the entire province.

- Conservatives a bit below their historic average, though the rural/urban divide is evident possibly for the first time in our provinces history. They averaged 18.6% in St. John's and 33.1% elsewhere.

- NDP finished near their result from 2015. Vote share up slightly in rural NL, about even (maybe slightly less) in St. John's.

- Green had a historic showing (3.1% provincially). Highest in Avalon with Greg Malone, lowest in St. John's East and St. John's South. Very surprised to see the rural Green candidates outperform the urban ones.
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  #83  
Old Posted Feb 5, 2020, 8:41 PM
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Polly by poll results have (unofficially) been released and I'm taking a strong look at all the data. There's a lot of data, of course, but I want to do a very thorough deep dive to get a sense of the federal political pulse of the island. The well had been poisoned for so long, having data from a "regular" election will be nice.

From first glance, there may be some very surprising results.
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  #84  
Old Posted Feb 17, 2020, 10:20 PM
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Welp, Dwight Ball resigning. Here begins the chaos.
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  #85  
Old Posted Feb 18, 2020, 11:51 AM
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Welp, Dwight Ball resigning. Here begins the chaos.
Chaos begin? More like just adding to the existing chaos! LOL.
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  #86  
Old Posted Feb 18, 2020, 8:56 PM
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Things were pretty dire up until yesterday, but I figured that the PCs and NDP would keep everything afloat in the house to slowly gather the resources for an election campaign. Now the clock is ticking and both parties + IND's need to determine whether they think their best shot is now or to wait for the Liberals to call the election.

Doing it now benefits the PCs. Doing it later benefits the Liberals.
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  #87  
Old Posted Mar 12, 2020, 5:30 PM
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Narrative Research

LIB: 37%
PC: 35%
NDP: 26%
GRN: 2% (???)
OTH: 0%

https://narrativeresearch.ca/satisfa...-announcement/

If I were to take a stab at a seat projection for this, I'd have to go with something like:

LIB: 18
PC: 15
NDP: 5
OTH: 2 (Joyce, Lane)
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  #88  
Old Posted Apr 17, 2020, 1:46 PM
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2019 CANADIAN FEDERAL ELECTION - POLL RESULTS NL




These are the polling station results, mapped by strength of victory. Usually a polling station encompasses a geographic area of a city (ie. a few blocks in St. John's, Gander, etc.), but in rural parts of the island often there is only one poll per community, hence it's representative of the community as a whole. The borders for rural polls are bigger but have less people.

The color scale is based on strength of victory over the second place party. ex. If the Liberal candidate took 50% of the vote share, and the Conservative took 35%, then the poll is coloured 15% Liberal. Essentially the darker the colour, the stronger the margin of victory.

Province-Wide Result

Liberal: 44.7% (-19.8% from 2015)
Conservative: 28.0% (+17.7% from 2015)
NDP: 23.9% (+2.9% from 2015)
Green: 3.1% (+2.0% from 2015)


Results By District

Avalon

Overall:
Liberal: 46.3% (-9.6%)
Conservative: 31.1% (+20.0%)
NDP: 17.3% (+2.9%)
Green: 5.4% (+4.8%)



Bay Roberts:
Liberal: 47.5%
Conservative: 33.8%
NDP: 15.0%
Green: 3.8%




Carbonear:
Liberal: 48.7%
Conservative: 28.3%
NDP: 17.4%
Green: 5.5%




Conception Bay North & Area

Harbour Grace:
Liberal: 46.0%
Conservative: 35.1%
NDP: 14.8%
Green: 3.8%

Avondale:
Liberal: 43.0%
Conservative: 34.9%
Green: 12.3%
NDP: 9.8%


Harbour Main-Chapel Cove-Lakeview:
Liberal: 43.9%
Conservative: 33.5%
NDP: 14.4%
Green: 8.2%

Holyrood:
Liberal: 45.2%
Conservative: 34.6%
NDP: 15.7%
Green: 4.5%




Conception Bay South:
Liberal: 46.1%
Conservative: 27.0%
NDP: 21.1%
Green: 5.8%




Placentia:
Liberal: 54.3%
Conservative: 30.4%
NDP: 24.9%
Green: 3.9%

NEXT POST: BONAVISTA-BURIN-TRINITY
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  #89  
Old Posted Apr 17, 2020, 2:00 PM
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Bonavista-Burin-Trinity

Overall:
Liberal: 45.7% (-36.1%)
Conservative: 39.5% (+29.4%)
NDP: 12.0% (+4.7%)
Green: 2.9% (+1.8%)




Bonavista:
Conservative: 46.4%
Liberal: 41.0%
NDP: 9.7%
Green: 2.9%




Clarenville:
Liberal: 42.8%
Conservative: 37.1%
NDP: 17.5%
Green: 2.6%

Shoal Harbour:
Conservative: 41.2%
Liberal: 38.2%
NDP: 18.3%
Green: 2.3%



Grand Bank:
Liberal: 47.3%
Conservative: 38.8%
NDP: 10.6%
Green: 3.3%

Fortune:
Liberal: 51.3%
Conservative: 40.7%
NDP: 6.7%
Green: 1.3%




Marystown:
Conservative: 46.5%
Liberal: 38.6%
NDP: 12.3%
Green: 2.6%

Burin:
Liberal: 44.7%
Conservative: 39.2%
NDP: 13.0%
Green: 3.1%

NEXT POST: COAST OF BAYS-CENTRAL-NOTRE DAME
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  #90  
Old Posted Apr 17, 2020, 2:20 PM
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Coast of Bays-Central-Notre Dame

Overall:
Liberal: 48.3% (-26.5%)
Conservative: 35.3% (+17.0%)
NDP: 12.4% (+6.3%)
Green: 4.0% (+3.2%)




Gander:
Liberal: 56.0%
Conservative: 24.6%
NDP: 15.3%
Green: 4.1%




Grand Falls-Windsor:
Liberal: 48.9%
Conservative: 31.5%
NDP: 17.0%
Green: 2.6%




Harbour Breton:
Liberal: 62.3%
Conservative: 26.3%
NDP: 10.3%
Green: 1.1%




Lewisporte:
Liberal: 44.4%
Conservative: 37.8%
NDP: 9.1%
Green: 8.7%




Springdale:
Conservative: 49.7%
Liberal: 34.3%
NDP: 12.3%
Green: 3.7%

NEXT POST: LABRADOR
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  #91  
Old Posted Apr 17, 2020, 2:26 PM
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Labrador

Overall:
Liberal: 42.5% (-29.3%)
Conservative: 31.1% (+17.2%)
NDP: 24.5% (+10.1%)
Green: 2.0% (+2.0%)




Happy Valley-Goose Bay:
Liberal: 45.3%
Conservative: 30.4%
NDP: 22.1%
Green: 2.1%




Labrador City:
Liberal: 35.3%
Conservative: 33.3%
NDP: 29.8%
Green: 1.6%

Wabush:
Conservative: 37.0%
NDP: 34.6%
Liberal: 26.2%
Green: 2.3%

NEXT POST: LONG RANGE MOUNTAINS
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  #92  
Old Posted Apr 17, 2020, 2:38 PM
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Long Range Mountains

Overall:
Liberal: 47.4% (-26.5%)
Conservative: 28.3% (+16.1%)
NDP: 19.8% (+8.5%)
Green: 3.5% (+0.8%)
Veterans Coalition: 1.1% (+1.1%)




Corner Brook:
Liberal: 47.6%
NDP: 30.1%
Conservative: 18.3%
Green: 3.3%
Veteran: 0.6%




Deer Lake:
Liberal: 42.2%
Conservative: 38.3%
NDP: 16.0%
Green: 2.7%
Veteran: 0.8%

Pasadena:
Liberal: 46.4%
Conservative: 25.7%
NDP: 24.2%
Green: 3.1%
Veteran: 0.7%




Port-Aux-Basque:
Liberal: 47.7%
Conservative: 27.6%
NDP: 29.7%
Green: 4.2%
Veteran: 0.8%

Burgeo:
Liberal: 68.3%
Conservative: 16.8%
NDP: 11.4%
Green: 3.2%
Veteran: 0.4%




St. Anthony:
Liberal: 60.4%
Conservative: 20.3%
NDP: 15.8%
Green: 3.0%
Veteran: 0.6%




Stephenville:
Liberal: 45.5%
Conservative: 28.5%
NDP: 20.0%
Green: 4.3%
Veteran: 1.7%

Stephenville Crossing:
Liberal: 40.5%
Conservative: 34.9%
NDP: 17.7%
Green: 3.9%
Veteran: 3.0%

NEXT POST: ST. JOHN'S METRO REGION
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  #93  
Old Posted Apr 17, 2020, 3:13 PM
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St. John's Metro Region

St. John's East Overall
NDP: 46.9% (+1.6%)
Liberal: 33.2% (-13.5%)
Conservative: 18.1% (+11.5%)
Green: 1.8% (+0.7%)

St. John's South-Mount Pearl Overall
Liberal: 51.1% (-6.7%)
NDP: 26.8% (-10.0%)
Conservative: 19.1% (+14.5%)
Green: 1.8% (+1.0%)
Peoples Party: 0.8% (+0.8%)
Christian Heritage: 0.4% (+0.4%)





St. John's:
Liberal: 43.2%
NDP: 39.3%
Conservative: 15.1%
Green: 1.9%
People's Party: 0.4%
Christian Heritage: 0.2%

Mount Pearl:
Liberal: 51.4%
NDP: 26.0%
Conservative: 19.7%
Green: 1.7%
People's Party: 0.8%
Christian Heritage: 0.3%

Paradise:
Liberal: 38.0%
NDP: 32.2%
Conservative: 26.7%
Green: 3.1%
People's Party: 0%
Christian Heritage: 0%

Conception Bay South:
Liberal: 46.1%
Conservative: 27.0%
NDP: 21.1%
Green: 5.8%
People's Party: 0%
Christian Heritage: 0%

Petty Harbour-Maddox Cove:
Liberal: 51.3%
NDP: 27.9%
Conservative: 27.0%
People's Party: 2.3%
Green: 1.3%
Christian Heritage: 0%

Bay Bulls:
Liberal: 45.1%
Conservative: 34.2%
NDP: 18.2%
Green: 1.3%
People's Party: 0.8%
Christian Heritage: 0.5%

Witless Bay:
Conservative: 42.8%
Liberal: 42.2%
NDP: 13.1%
Green: 1.7%
Christian Heritage: 0.2%
People's Party: 0%

Torbay:
NDP: 40.4%
Conservative: 29.4%
Liberal: 28.9%
Green: 1.3%
People's Party: 0%
Christian Heritage: 0%

Logy Bay-Middle Cove-Outer Cove:
NDP: 41.6%
Liberal: 30.1%
Conservative: 26.7%
Green: 1.5%
People's Party: 0%
Christian Heritage: 0%

Portugal Cove-St. Philips:
NDP: 46.8%
Liberal: 31.6%
Conservative: 20.1%
Green: 1.6%
People's Party: 0%
Christian Heritage: 0%

Wabana/Bell Island:
NDP: 41.5%
Conservative: 34.6%
Liberal: 23.0%
Green: 1.0%
People's Party: 0%
Christian Heritage: 0%

Flatrock:
Conservative: 47.5%
NDP: 33.0%
Liberal: 17.7%
Green: 1.9%
People's Party: 0%
Christian Heritage: 0%

Pouch Cove:
Conservative: 55.8%
NDP: 25.5%
Liberal: 17.0%
Green: 1.7%
People's Party: 0%
Christian Heritage: 0%

Bauline:
NDP: 40.1%
Conservative: 30.5%
Liberal: 27.4%
Green: 2.1%
People's Party: 0%
Christian Heritage: 0%
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  #94  
Old Posted Jul 29, 2020, 6:24 PM
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Voting is open for the next leader of the Liberal Party of Newfoundland, and hence by default the next Premier of Newfoundland.

Andrew Furey vs. John Abbott.

Who are you supporting? Who do you think wins?

I'll leave my opinion of this "race" unspoken, but I suspect Furey will win with about 70% of the vote.
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  #95  
Old Posted Jul 29, 2020, 10:07 PM
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This is somewhat akin to holding a vote for who would be the next captain of the Titanic.
Regardless of who wins, what is the path forward? Job # 1 is to get elected (not only for an individual seat or as part of a general election). To get elected you have to promise to GIVE things, not take them away. How will that play with the electorate? Welcome aboard Skipper !!
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  #96  
Old Posted Jul 30, 2020, 1:48 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Marty_Mcfly View Post
Voting is open for the next leader of the Liberal Party of Newfoundland, and hence by default the next Premier of Newfoundland.

Andrew Furey vs. John Abbott.

Who are you supporting? Who do you think wins?

I'll leave my opinion of this "race" unspoken, but I suspect Furey will win with about 70% of the vote.
I don't really have any interest in following it. Seems as though Furey is a shoo-in to win.

I just expect much of the same-ol same-ol to be honest. I'm hoping the PCs can soon come up with a better leader than Ches.
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  #97  
Old Posted Jul 30, 2020, 6:23 PM
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Originally Posted by J_Murphy View Post
I don't really have any interest in following it. Seems as though Furey is a shoo-in to win.

I just expect much of the same-ol same-ol to be honest. I'm hoping the PCs can soon come up with a better leader than Ches.
I too feel the same way, unfortunately. Keep kicking the can down the road... what's another day?
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  #98  
Old Posted Aug 3, 2020, 10:13 PM
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Furey wins with 66% of the vote, while Abbott takes in 34%.
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  #99  
Old Posted Aug 4, 2020, 1:13 AM
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^ Congrats, he may be the only Canadian premier to have given a TED talk.
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  #100  
Old Posted Sep 7, 2020, 7:55 PM
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Dwight Ball is resigning as MHA of Humber-Gros Morne, triggering a by-election. It's all but a formality that Premier Andrew Furey will be the Liberal candidate.

No need to know the PC, NDP, or other candidates in this by-election. I can call it now. This is a safe Liberal hold. I think it would be even if the candidate wasn't Furey.
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