Quote:
Originally Posted by Cirrus
People always say that. They said it 10 years ago on this very forum, and they'll say it 10 years from now.
I agree with your basic argument, that Denver doesn't have the density for transit beyond about the light rail / streetcar level right now. But I don't agree that it never will. Denver has had such limited success adding density outside downtown because downtown still has so much undeveloped land that there's not a lot of pressure for high-density elsewhere. A non-downtown location has to have a really strong pull of its own to get much energy (Cherry Creek qualifies, Gates rubberland doesn't). But eventually downtown will fill out to the point where it can no longer accommodate all the demand for urban infill, and that growth will start to spill over into less obvious destinations.
Really, we're already seeing the first stages of that, as industrial areas like Denargo develop. Next it'll be the obvious corridors. Colfax, Broadway, Colorado, and Federal (though Federal's on the wrong side of town so it might be slower). We know that's how it'll work because that's what we see in cities with urbanizing areas outside downtown. Denver just isn't there yet. But when Denver inevitably gets there, that'll be an opportunity for serious transit and real high density non-downtown TOD.
Not to say it's definitely inevitable, I suppose. The zoning has to change. NIMBYs could stop that, or the city could put more focus on developing out at DIA instead. But zoning changes when the development pressure changes, at least for non-residential properties. it happens enough in suburban areas around North America that we know it's possible. Nothing about Denver is unique. It'll be hard, but if we want it to happen then we should advocate for it, instead of accept defeat without a fight.
Personally, I'd be shocked if it doesn't happen in Glendale and along Colorado Blvd, at least. It already is. They have the tall buildings, just not the urban design yet.
Here are some examples, all from previously lower-density suburban areas not too unlike Colorado Blvd. All from cities that are admittedly larger than Denver, but Denver will be big enough soon enough.
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The question always seems to be that when the demand hits a certain level X, that an improved transit system will be built.
My argument always has been that a dollar spent now for future expansion is an appreciating investment.
The mistakes in Denver's RTD steel rail system were not made because points like this were not repeatedly, and, heatedly made. The mistakes occurred with full knowledge of very accurate criticism.
What was built reflects a mix of power, money, and, politics, as much as engineering, urban planning, and construction.
The huge problem generated by how the DUS Station complex was laid out will remain until it is remedied. If the problems with separate terminated lines is not remedied by, say 2035, the problem will likely exist in 2050.
This applies to our not planning for a transit ring line which every decent subway, subway/commuter line, subway/light rail, subway/commuter rail/light rail system in the world has. Continuous loops in the world's great public (and public/private hybrid) transit systems carry the greatest passenger load, as you saw in Moscow, and, I spent years experiencing in Tokyo.
We all know what makes steel rail transit systems work. Now, the question is will Denver fix it's transit mistakes or will the Denver Metro never have a great public transit system?
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Incidentally, the TTC subway system produced huge development along the Yonge-University-Spadina, and, the Bloor-Danforth lines. This occurred primarily because the Yonge-University-Spadina line provides a "U" through downtown, and, and crosses the Bloor-Danforth lines, forming a upside down "A". Between the two lines, Toronto has experienced a continuous building boom for about 50 years.
There is same seat boarding through the financial district, and single transfer at two stations to a very long east-west line.
The best way to see the outcome is to go to the observation deck on CN tower.
Until DUS is a through station, we will not see this type of development for at least a generation, due solely to layout.
I am not saying that the ridership will not grow. I am saying that ridership will grow, and, paralleling high rises will be built at a far lower rate than had the DUS Station system been well designed. The difference in resulting density metro wide, will be reflected in "planned" suburban sprawl.