DENVER | Main Development Thread #7

[vblack]

https://porch.com/resource/you-couldnt-pay-me-to-move


Methodology and Limitations

To gain the data for the study shown above, a survey was run using Amazon's Mechanical Turk Service. We surveyed 515 people, 256 of who were female, 258 of who were male, and one who identified as neither. Fifty-six of the respondents were baby boomers, 137 were from Generation X, 313 were millennials, and nine were from generations outside those.
All data in the study shown above rely on self-reporting, which can be host to issues like telescoping and exaggeration. An attention check was used in the survey to ensure that respondents were not answering randomly.

[Stonemans_rowJ]

On the night of the last presidential election, or it may have been a day or two prior, The NY Times had HRC chances of winning at 99%. I thought it was so strange that I took a screen shot. Never heard any follow up as
To why a publication as revered as NyT could be so wrong. 15% for Arkansas, 20% for s Dakota? Really?

[wong21fr]

Originally Posted by Stonemans_rowJ

On the night of the last presidential election, or it may have been a day or two prior, The NY Times had HRC chances of winning at 99%. I thought it was so strange that I took a screen shot. Never heard any follow up as
To why a publication as revered as NyT could be so wrong. 15% for Arkansas, 20% for s Dakota? Really?

Garbage data in. Garbage results out. 2016 is a great example of this and just how skewed polling can be when you have sampling bias or your population modeling is wrong (IIRC this is largely what went down in '16). The models were pretty accurate in determining the national outcome, but failed to catch the state shifts in MI, PA, and WN. Roughly 70,000 voters swung the election.

In other news. Empower Field at Mile High? Looks like the Canadians rescued us again after Winnipeg-based Great West Life let its locally-based subsidiary Empower Financial secure the Mile High Stadium naming rights. Bowlen's spirit lives on.

[twister244]

Umm...... we have another office building under construction in RiNo?......

https://www.bizjournals.com/denver/n...s-current.html

[CherryCreek]

Originally Posted by Stonemans_rowJ

On the night of the last presidential election, or it may have been a day or two prior, The NY Times had HRC chances of winning at 99%. I thought it was so strange that I took a screen shot. Never heard any follow up as
To why a publication as revered as NyT could be so wrong. 15% for Arkansas, 20% for s Dakota? Really?

Well, your basic premise - that the NY Times got the election WAY wrong in terms of election eve projections is correct, but not sure where the 99% came from.
The NYT's election eve page is still up - and the NYT's estimate of an 85% probability that Hillary would win, is remarkably high for an election she lost (but not 99%). (I do see at the bottom of the page where the NY tabulated other sites predictions that some websites were indeed giving a Hillary win percentage of 99%; also, as an aside, the NYT prediction for Arkansas and South Dakota was at <99% Trump).

In NYT's defense, they did compare the chance of Trump winning to that of an NFL kicker missing a 37 yo field goal.

Lol.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...-forecast.html

[TakeFive]

Renderings courtesy DAVIS PARTNERSHIP/SCHNITZER WEST via The Current, River North

Originally Posted by twister244

Umm...... we have another office building under construction in RiNo?......

https://www.bizjournals.com/denver/n...s-current.html

Not this year: maybe next year.

The first phase of construction is slated to begin in February 2020.

Doug Zabel, managing partner of Schnitzer West, said it’s critical for RiNo to have more Class-A office space.

“The Current River North is designed to be a culture-ready workspace based on input from local entrepreneurs, CEOs, HR leaders and talent,” he said in a statement. “The office development’s real-world design will offer tenants the flexibility to build and scale their businesses with an engaged workforce in a vibrant environment.”

[TakeFive]

Originally Posted by Brainpathology

If it's something that's ostensibly a good thing, and Florida is in the top 5, then it's BS. No need to read the methods or examine the "n" or get into any any long boring statistical analysis.

It was nice of Dorian to wave a friendly "Hello" as it passed by Florida on its trip to the north.

Originally Posted by Agent Orange

As of 2018, Florida had the highest net domestic inflows of any state, more than double the rate of Texas, which came in third. I have no intention to live in Florida or Texas, but it can’t be denied that many people find those states desirable. It’s a big country. Some people even voted for Donald Trump in 2016. Imagine.

Thanks for the link; I had never seen that page.

Between that list and the map it's pretty clear the migration patterns to coastal cities, the SE and SW parts of the country... PLUS Colorado.

Originally Posted by wong21fr

In other news. Empower Field at Mile High? Looks like the Canadians rescued us again after Winnipeg-based Great West Life let its locally-based subsidiary Empower Financial secure the Mile High Stadium naming rights. Bowlen's spirit lives on.

Thanks for the heads up. I was caught a bit curious by the headline but I wasn't aware of the connection ie Great West/Empower.

[Brainpathology]

Originally Posted by Agent Orange

As of 2018, Florida had the highest net domestic inflows of any state, more than double the rate of Texas, which came in third. I have no intention to live in Florida or Texas, but it can’t be denied that many people find those states desirable. It’s a big country. Some people even voted for Donald Trump in 2016. Imagine.

Well yeah, it’s still cheap here. So if you fail and just can’t stomach Pueblo it’s an ok place. Plus you move to a state with a 1988 model of medical reimbursement. So I can work here and one of the bonuses for me is I can invest in the food service industry if I want without the danger of some random hipster stealing my life’s work because he doesn’t want to lose a space to sit for three hours nursing the same coffee order at basically a Denny’s.

I’d still rather have the mountains though even with the risk of random millennials (or gen z?) stealing my livelihood for fun.

[Brainpathology]

Also. I like the new bell tower render. So there. :-P

[gusam26]

Deleted

[TakeFive]

Bye, bye Bikers; Hello Fivetran


Photo courtesy Bisnow/Margaret Jackson

After Displacing Biker Gang, Steam On The Platte Lures New Tech Company
September 4, 2019 By Margaret Jackson, Bisnow Denver

A California technology company is expanding its Denver presence and has agreed to lease 16K SF at Steam on the Platte. Fivetran expects to expand its Denver team from 40 employees to more than 150 in the next three years. Fivetran technology supports analytics, enabling data-backed decisions across organizations. Headquartered in Oakland, the company has satellite offices around the world.

It's interesting to see a followup to a project started in 2014 and discussed on this site.

When Urban Ventures and White Construction purchased the property, there were two illegal marijuana grows operating, and the Evil Souls motorcycle gang had taken over one of the buildings as its clubhouse.

[Sam Hill]

A 1% Growth Limit Across The Front Range Could Be Up For Vote On Your 2020 Ballot

It would limit the number of residential building permits local governments could issue from Weld County in the north through the Denver metro to El Paso County in the south.

Hayes’ initiative would cap them to just a 1 percent rise every year. The measure, which would be a state law, couldn’t be repealed or adjusted until 2023.

[laniroj]

Originally Posted by BG918

Something like Museum Tower in Dallas would be a better option on this small parcel, but with a brick base to better tie itself into Larimer Square.



http://www.austin-ind.com

That's a good looking building, but would completely lack context on this site - a curved glass tower, even with as much as a 5 story brick base, still isn't contextual whatsoever. Maybe something more like this?

https://no33parkrow.com/#luminous-park-front-living

[Sam Hill]

12-story apartment complex proposed just north of Mile High Stadium

An executive with Opus Development Co., part of Minneapolis-based real estate firm The Opus Group, submitted a site-development plan to the city last week, proposing the 277-unit complex at 550 W. 19th Ave.

The 1.65-acre site, currently a gravel parking lot, is just south of apartment building Turntable Studios. It is already zoned for 12 stories.

[wong21fr]

Originally Posted by laniroj

That's a good looking building, but would completely lack context on this site - a curved glass tower, even with as much as a 5 story brick base, still isn't contextual whatsoever. Maybe something more like this?

https://no33parkrow.com/#luminous-park-front-living

I think the idea of context is misplaced for this site. The LDRB doesn't seem to want a building that complements LoDo, they want a building that is in stark contrast to the built environment of LoDo if it's going to be taller than 10 stories. Hell, I'd like something that was full corporate international style that just towered over the area. Obtrusive and dark.

[BG918]

Originally Posted by laniroj

That's a good looking building, but would completely lack context on this site - a curved glass tower, even with as much as a 5 story brick base, still isn't contextual whatsoever. Maybe something more like this?

https://no33parkrow.com/#luminous-park-front-living

I could get behind that. Hopefully whatever it is they do for-sale condos instead of apartments.

[twister244]

Nice new rendering of T3 - https://milehighcre.com/developers-r...gs-of-t3-rino/

[BG918]

Originally Posted by twister244

Nice new rendering of T3 - https://milehighcre.com/developers-r...gs-of-t3-rino/

There was a DBJ article today with pictures of this project and several others planned for the area around 38th & Blake Station:

T3 - 250k sf office at 35th/36th & Blake


The Current River North - 200k sf office at 35th & Delgany


Watershed (Catalyst Phase 2) - 167k sf office at 36th & Brighton Blvd


World Trade Center - 300k office and 240 room hotel at 38th & Walnut


Train Denver - 250k office, 12 story residential tower and 16 story hotel tower at 40th & Blake


3750 Blake - 348 unit apartment tower at 37th & Blake


North Wynkoop - 392 unit apartment tower at 40th & Brighton Blvd


Novel Rino - 427 unit apartment tower at 40th & Walnut


https://www.bizjournals.com/denver/n..._news_headline

[Agent Orange]

Originally Posted by Sam Hill

A 1% Growth Limit Across The Front Range Could Be Up For Vote On Your 2020 Ballot

This is really scary. If it passes in Lakewood, why wouldn't it pass in the Front Range generally?

Why is it that Colorado is the only place I hear about these kinds of measures? Washington, Oregon, Hawaii, and Austin hate "transplants" too. Might need to take a closer look at Minneapolis or Pittsburgh if this thing passes. This seems rather discriminatory, I wonder whether this would hold up in court.

[CherryCreek]

Originally Posted by Sam Hill

A 1% Growth Limit Across The Front Range Could Be Up For Vote On Your 2020 Ballot

If this is indeed statutory, I see no way that it trumps the home rule provisions. Thus the home rule cities in theory could be free to ignore it.