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  #401  
Old Posted Feb 5, 2015, 11:06 AM
New Brisavoine New Brisavoine is offline
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A tale of three cities!

Figures for Paris are based on the results of the 2012 French census released last month.



During WW2, Paris (1,572 km²) lost 200,000 inhabitants, Greater London lost 400,000 inhabitants, and Berlin lost 1 million inhabitants.

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  #402  
Old Posted Feb 7, 2015, 4:11 PM
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I've looked at the fastest growth rates over a decennial period for the 3 cities since the 19th century (I wouldn't be surprised if London experienced its fastest growth rates in the 18th or even 17th centuries, but there are no data for these ancient periods).

Decennial period of fastest growth:
- Greater London: 1871-1881 (+2,07% per year during those 10 years)
- Paris (1,572 km²): 1851-1861 (+3,13% per year during those 10 years)
- Berlin (892 km²): 1861-1871 (+4,28% per year during those 10 years)

Berlin surprised me. I imagined the fastest growth took place in the first decades after the German unification, but in fact it took place in the 10 years preceding German unification. That being said, the city (in its 1920 borders, i.e. 892 km²) managed to keep growth rates of nearly +4% per year until 1890.

Paris's decennial period of fastest growth took place in the first 10 years of Haussmann's administration, which I guess makes sense.

London is harder to interpret, but I suspect its fastest growth took place actually in the 18th or even 17th centuries.

If we look at absolute population growth now, the picture is slightly different.

Decennial period of largest absolute growth:
- Greater London: 2003-2013 (+102,174 people per year during those 10 years; during these 10 years, Greater London managed to beat its previous absolute growth record established between 1891 and 1901)
- Paris (1,572 km²): 1954-1962 (+127,468 people per year during those 8 years)
- Berlin (892 km²): 1903-1913 (+112,880 people per year during those 10 years)

What's interesting is that none of these three cities have managed to have absolute growth larger than +127,468 people per year during their entire history. To be compared with the likes of Lagos, Karachi, or some large Chinese and Indian cities which currently grow by +300,000 people per year or more. The current wave of urbanization in the Third World is unlike anything the First World experienced during its period of greatest expansion!

Finally, I looked at the time it took for each city to grow from 2 million to 4 million people. F. Moriconi-Ebrard (of the Geopolis project) defines the 2 million mark as what sets apart the metropolises of the ancient world and those of the modern industrialized world. Historically, several metropolises in Asia and Europe managed to pass 1 million people, but none managed to pass 2 million people, because the agricultural and transport technologies simply made it impossible to feed so many people.

It is only with the Industrial Revolution and the improvements in the agricultural and transport technologies that the 2 million barrier could finally be broken. London was the 1st city in the world to reach 2 million people, in 1836. Paris was 2nd city in the world to reach 2 million people, in 1858. New York was the 3rd in the world, in 1875; Berlin the 4th, in 1892; Chicago the 5th, in 1893. "City" here refers to "urban area" of course, not cities within administrative borders.

So how long did it take for London, Paris, and Berlin to double their population after entering the unchartered territory of 2 million+ cities?

Greater London: 1836-1874: 38 years
Paris (1,592 km²): 1858-1901: 43 years
Berlin (892 km²): 1892-1914: 22 years

Berlin really had stratospheric growth (in absolute terms) in the last years of the German Empire. It should be noted, however, that the population of Berlin declined below 4 million immediately after 1914, and it is not until 1925 that the city managed to break the 4 million mark again. But then of course at the end of WW2 the population of Berlin went from 4.36 million in January 1945 to 2.81 million in August 1945, and since then the city (892 km²) has never managed to recover a population larger than 4 million (let's note that in a territory of 1,572 km², encompassing the city-state of Berlin + 680 km² of suburbs in Brandenburg, there lived about 3.5 million people in January 2012, and in the Berlin metro area, covering 5,421 km², there lived 4,366,045 people).
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  #403  
Old Posted Feb 12, 2015, 3:49 PM
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+ Tokyo!

(all maps at the same scale)



What's crazy is Tokyo manages to pack the population of London and Paris combined in the same space without having to resort to super
high densities. The densest urban district of Tokyo, Toshima, has a population density of only 22,008 inh. per km² (57,001 ppsm), whereas
Paris's 11th arrondissement has a population density of 42,236 inh. per km² (109,391 ppsm), and in fact the entire City of Paris inside the
Périphérique (excluding the Bois de Boulogne and Bois de Vincennes) has a population density of 25,757 inh. per km² (66,711 ppsm), higher
than the densest district of Tokyo.
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  #404  
Old Posted Feb 15, 2015, 5:48 PM
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Hi!!, I have a few questions for the demography experts here, (please forgive my english)

1-Do the asylum seekers are somehow included in the immigration numbers published by each country´s statistics agencies??. For instance..., Germany reported a net migration of about 430K for 2013, the same year they reported asylum seekers to be about 200K. As you might know, Asylum or the permission to stay, is usually granted to about 20% of Asylum seekers in Germany, that would be about 40K. I asume, if at all, the 40K recognised cases are included in the migration figures but the remaining 160K not, in this case, wouldn´t the remaining 160K have a big impact in population in the middle to long term??, given that only the minority of them are forced to abandon the country if, say.. 50K would illegally stay in the country each year, that would be about 500K in 10 years... and given the big conflicts around the world, asylum seekers numbers are not expected to drop, on the contrary...


2-I can´t find a logical explanation to Italy´s high migration numbers, they´re usually relatively high, about 200K to 300K in recent years, even during a hard economic downturn, I mean... I´d love to live in a warm house with a view to the mediterranean sea, but I think that´s not the case for most migrants if they can´t find a job, , Italy receives a lot of asylum seekers, ok, but as far as I know, Germany is accepting far more asylum seekers, and even having a booming economy with the lowest youth unemployment in the EU, while Italy being the opposite, they have relatively similar absolute migration. Maybe the retirees from Europe migrate to Italy but I don´t think that can account for 300K migrants...


Quote:
Originally Posted by New Brisavoine View Post
Someone asked me to provide more information about the comparison between France and the UK, so here it is.

Births in 2013:

Mainland:
- metropolitan France: 781,621
- Great Britain: 754,526

Country:
- France: ca. 818,000
- UK: 778,805

Sovereignty:
- French Republic: ca. 827,500 (there was an error in my previous post, I've corrected it)
- UK + British Overseas Territories + Channel Islands + Isle of Man: ca. 786,000

3- What´s the difference between Metropolitan France, France, and French Republic? I thought they only differentiated between Metropolitan France and France as a whole with overseas colonies... and why these numbers are different from Wikipedia?? they state 811 510 live births for 2013 which I asume is for France as a whole but it doesn´t mach any of your numbers...


Thanks all in advance!!
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  #405  
Old Posted Feb 16, 2015, 10:39 PM
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For question #2, I would think Italy receives tons of immigrants for the same reason the Southwest U.S. receives tons of immigrants- location.

Most immigrants to Europe are coming via North Africa and the Middle East. Italy is basically the easiest "rich" country to reach for many, especially because some Italian islands are extremely close to Africa.

And Italy's economy, while not exactly robust, is not that bad. They are still one of the richest major countries on earth, and have excellent social benefits.
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  #406  
Old Posted Feb 17, 2015, 2:04 AM
New Brisavoine New Brisavoine is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by flash110 View Post
3- What´s the difference between Metropolitan France, France, and French Republic? I thought they only differentiated between Metropolitan France and France as a whole with overseas colonies... and why these numbers are different from Wikipedia?? they state 811 510 live births for 2013 which I asume is for France as a whole but it doesn´t mach any of your numbers...
Metropolitan France is the part of France that is in Europe.

The French Republic is the entire territory under French sovereignty. In other words all the territories where you'll have to cross a French border check to enter, and where the local inhabitants are French citizens and carry a French passport. So that's Metropolitan France + all the overseas departements and territories.

What I've termed "France" here is a different notion. It's larger than Metropolitan France but smaller than the French Republic. It's the part of the French Republic that fully applies the laws passed at the national level and does not enjoy any specific degree of autonomy. It's also the part of the French Republic that belongs to the EU. It is made up of Metropolitan France + the 5 overseas departments.

When you see figures about "France" at an international level (like IMF, World Bank, EU), they refer to Metropolitan France + the 5 overseas departments (although Mayotte is not yet integrated in the data due to its recent accession to overseas department status and lack of statistical time series).

As for the birth figures quoted here, that 811,510 figure in the Wikipedia article refers to Metropolitan + the 4 old overseas departments (without Mayotte), whereas my 818,000 figure refers to Metropolitan France + the 5 overseas departments (including Mayotte).

PS: There are no overseas "colonies" anymore. Colonies were legally disbanded in 1946, and replaced either with overseas departments or overseas territories. All French territories have enjoyed full political representation and full French citizenship since 1958 at the latest.
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  #407  
Old Posted Feb 21, 2015, 1:53 PM
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INSEE has published the detailed countries of birth of the mothers who gave birth in France in 2013. I've grouped the countries by geographic regions of origin for births in Metropolitan France (the European part of France).

Share of births in Metropolitan France in 2013:
- mothers born in Metropolitan France: 78.8% (i.e. 78.8% of the births that took place in Metropolitan France in 2013 were due to mothers themselves born in Metropolitan France)
- mothers born in Overseas France: 1.1% (i.e. 1.1% of the births that took place in Metropolitan France in 2013 were due to mothers born in Overseas France and now living in Metropolitan France)
- mothers born in the Maghreb: 7.9%
- mothers born in sub-Saharan Africa outside of Réunion and Mayotte: 4.6%
- mothers born in Europe outside of Metropolitan France: 3.7%
- mothers born in Turkey: 1.0%
- mothers born in East Asia and countries of former French Indochina: 0.8%
- mothers born in Latin America and the Caribbean outside of the French territories there: 0.7% (of which mothers born in Haiti: 0.2%)
- mothers born in the Indian sub-continent: 0.5%
- mothers born in Egypt, Israel, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Iran: 0.3%
- mothers born in North America outside of SP&M: 0.1%
- mothers born in countries not included above: 0.5%
TOTAL: 100%

Regarding the 35,729 births due to mothers born in sub-Saharan countries that took place in Metropolitan France in 2013 (a historical record which is probably due to be broken every year in the coming years), I've used to excellent religious statistics by the Pew Research Center for all the countries of the world to determine how many of these births were due to Muslim mothers and how many to Christian mothers (most people assume that the Black Africans in France are essentially Muslim), assuming that the ratio of each religion among the sub-Sahara African mothers in Metropolitan France is the same as in their country origin.

Well it appears that out of those 35,729 births, 47.2% were due to... Christian mothers, 44.7% were due to Muslim mothers, 3.6% where due to mothers who practice folk religions, and 3.3% were due to mothers with no religion.
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  #408  
Old Posted Feb 21, 2015, 6:27 PM
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New Brisavoine, I have a question about French birthrates.

Obviously everyone knows that the French have surprisingly high birthrates for a rich, secular country, and many attribute it to cultural factors and generous social programs. For whatever reason, France, unlike, say Germany, has been able to maintain high birthrates. Germany now has very generous programs for new mothers but there are still cultural factors at play that make it more difficult for some families.

But here's my question- are the high birthrates reflected in the entire French population? In other words, do "native", non-immigrant stock French also have high birthrates? Or is it mostly immigrants, and their descendants? Obviously when you say "born in Metropolitan France" it could be a second or third-generation family with roots in the Maghreb or something, and France doesn't classify people by race/ethnicity, so would this data even be available?
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  #409  
Old Posted Feb 21, 2015, 8:03 PM
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Quote:
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France doesn't classify people by race/ethnicity, so would this data even be available?
Lol you brought the answer by yourself in your question.
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  #410  
Old Posted Feb 22, 2015, 1:46 PM
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The London stats are a bit outdated the population stands at 8.6m and the job market at 5.6m
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-31082941
http://data.london.gov.uk/dashboard-summary/jobs/
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  #411  
Old Posted Feb 23, 2015, 4:53 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Crawford View Post
For question #2, I would think Italy receives tons of immigrants for the same reason the Southwest U.S. receives tons of immigrants- location.

Most immigrants to Europe are coming via North Africa and the Middle East. Italy is basically the easiest "rich" country to reach for many, especially because some Italian islands are extremely close to Africa.

And Italy's economy, while not exactly robust, is not that bad. They are still one of the richest major countries on earth, and have excellent social benefits.
Italy´s economy is two years in continous recession and it´s declining since 2008 only showing a moderate growth in 2010 after declining 5.5% in 2009. France is having trouble creating employmen by growing less than 1% I don´t think that Italy is able to take so much immigration without causing a big social turmoil. Besides if Italy´s receiving african immigration they could only be refugees, Germany and even Sweden are accepting far more refugees, i think In the US, immigrants don´t stay in New Mexico, Arizona or poor áreas, they go to booming centers around Miami, Los Angeles or New York. There must be another explanation, maybe Italy has a different immigration counting method than France Germany or UK?

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Metropolitan France is the part of France that is in Europe.

The French Republic is the entire territory under French sovereignty. In other words all the territories where you'll have to cross a French border check to enter, and where the local inhabitants are French citizens and carry a French passport. So that's Metropolitan France + all the overseas departements and territories.

What I've termed "France" here is a different notion. It's larger than Metropolitan France but smaller than the French Republic. It's the part of the French Republic that fully applies the laws passed at the national level and does not enjoy any specific degree of autonomy. It's also the part of the French Republic that belongs to the EU. It is made up of Metropolitan France + the 5 overseas departments.

When you see figures about "France" at an international level (like IMF, World Bank, EU), they refer to Metropolitan France + the 5 overseas departments (although Mayotte is not yet integrated in the data due to its recent accession to overseas department status and lack of statistical time series).

As for the birth figures quoted here, that 811,510 figure in the Wikipedia article refers to Metropolitan + the 4 old overseas departments (without Mayotte), whereas my 818,000 figure refers to Metropolitan France + the 5 overseas departments (including Mayotte).

PS: There are no overseas "colonies" anymore. Colonies were legally disbanded in 1946, and replaced either with overseas departments or overseas territories. All French territories have enjoyed full political representation and full French citizenship since 1958 at the latest.

Lol, it might be that for an argentinian, like me, it´s difficult to consider a far away territory part of the same country, besides, I don´t think that representation prevented france from blowing up mururoa with nuclear tests in the 90´s or from ignoring local languages.

by the way... is there a more updated figure for that 818,000 number??, it seems too rounded, or maybe it´s a final?
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  #412  
Old Posted Feb 24, 2015, 2:27 PM
New Brisavoine New Brisavoine is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Crawford View Post
But here's my question- are the high birthrates reflected in the entire French population? In other words, do "native", non-immigrant stock French also have high birthrates? Or is it mostly immigrants, and their descendants? Obviously when you say "born in Metropolitan France" it could be a second or third-generation family with roots in the Maghreb or something, and France doesn't classify people by race/ethnicity, so would this data even be available?
INSEE has studied the fertility rate of immigrants and non-immigrants in France. The fertility rate of the non-immigrant population is 0.1 below the fertility rate of the entire population. In other words, in Metropolitan France (the European part of France), where the fertility rate was 1.98 in 2013, the non-immigrant population had a fertility rate of approximately 1.88.

There is virtually no difference between the fertility rate of the women with French ancestry and the women with immigrant ancestry born in France. So the fertility rate of the women with French ancestry was approximately 1.88 in 2013.

In comparison, the fertility rate of the non-Hispanic White women in the US was 1.75 in 2013.
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  #413  
Old Posted Feb 24, 2015, 2:38 PM
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Lol, it might be that for an argentinian, like me, it´s difficult to consider a far away territory part of the same country, besides, I don´t think that representation prevented france from blowing up mururoa with nuclear tests in the 90´s or from ignoring local languages.
Hawaii is located 7,800 km from Washington DC. In comparison, Martinique and Guadeloupe are only 6,800 km from Paris, and French Guiana is 7,100 km from Paris. Only Mayotte and Réunion are further from Paris, at 8,000 and 9,400 km respectively.

Distance doesn't matter, especially in this age of internet and mass aviation. In fact even in far-flung New Caledonia, which is 16,800 km from Paris, young people go to Paris to study at university level. There is much more integration between Metropolitan France and Overseas France than what people imagine.

As for nuclear tests, the US blew up atomic bombs in Nevada, and that doesn't make Nevada any less American for that.
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by the way... is there a more updated figure for that 818,000 number??, it seems too rounded, or maybe it´s a final?
It's rounded by less than 1,000. There is no other data for 2013. In 2014 the preliminary figure is 820,000.
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  #414  
Old Posted Feb 24, 2015, 3:52 PM
New Brisavoine New Brisavoine is offline
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Lyon compared to the 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 5th largest cities of Germany. Population living within the same land area.

Population figures as of January 1, 2012 for all cities. Figures come from the 2012 French census published last month, and the post-censal German population estimates. To reach the land area of Hamburg, Munich, Cologne, and Frankfurt, I have grouped the densest communes around Lyon to form a contiguous area without enclaves or exclaves.

Lyon vs Hamburg:
- City-State of Hamburg (755.2 km²): 1,718,187 inh.
- City of Lyon + 84 suburban communes (755.2 km²): 1,440,390 inh.

1962 >>> 2012:
- Hamburg (755.2 km²): 1,841,800 >>> 1,718,187
- Lyon (755.2 km²): 984,192 >>> 1,440,390

Lyon vs Munich:
- City of Munich (310.7 km²): 1,364,920 inh.
- City of Lyon + 27 suburban communes (309.6 km²): 1,173,593 inh.

1962 >>> 2012:
- Munich (310.7 km²): 1,102,500 >>> 1,364,920
- Lyon (309.6 km²): 880,080 >>> 1,173,593

Lyon vs Cologne:
- City of Cologne (405.2 km²): 1,013,665 inh.
- City of Lyon + 43 suburban communes (404.4 km²): 1,256,480 inh.

1987 >>> 2012:
- Cologne (405.2 km²) 928,309 >>> 1,013,665
- Lyon (404.4 km²): 1,101,100 >>> 1,256,480

Lyon vs Frankfurt:
- City of Frankfurt (248.3 km²): 676,533 inh.
- City of Lyon + 20 suburban communes (248.4 km²): 1,097,471 inh.

1987 >>> 2012:
- Frankfurt (248.3 km²): 618,266 >>> 676,533
- Lyon (248.4 km²): 974,100 >>> 1,097,471
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  #415  
Old Posted Feb 24, 2015, 4:19 PM
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I lived two years in Réunion island (July 2000-July 2002). There is a lot integration with Mainland France.
Most of things there were the same than in Mainland France. There is obviously some difference but not as much as you may believe.
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  #416  
Old Posted Feb 26, 2015, 2:24 AM
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Hawaii is located 7,800 km from Washington DC. In comparison, Martinique and Guadeloupe are only 6,800 km from Paris, and French Guiana is 7,100 km from Paris. Only Mayotte and Réunion are further from Paris, at 8,000 and 9,400 km respectively.

Distance doesn't matter, especially in this age of internet and mass aviation. In fact even in far-flung New Caledonia, which is 16,800 km from Paris, young people go to Paris to study at university level. There is much more integration between Metropolitan France and Overseas France than what people imagine.

As for nuclear tests, the US blew up atomic bombs in Nevada, and that doesn't make Nevada any less American for that.
I don´t quite agree, i don´t think the french government would favor it´s overseas territories interests over their own, just an example, even hawaii recognises hawaiian language as official, not so in french Guayana with minorities, these cultural differences might increase if migration from neighbouring countries continue. If the Eurozone keeps losing its money based advantage, as it´s being the case right now, and economic power of France in the world declines, there would be less reasons for many to keep being part of a far away country (same happened here in Argentina with Spain 200 years ago) . On the other hand, geopolitical issues will still play a major role in the future since only a small fraction of world population and commerce have acces to regular mass aviation. I don´t think france has the same geopolitical influence over brazil or Venezuela as over italy or spain.

Anyway, obviously you´re french and I´m not, and I don´t think french Guyana or other territories Independence is around the corner, it´s just that when a far away place or región becomes prosperous and/or their "ex" colony power´s influence declines, these Independence issues arise
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  #417  
Old Posted Feb 26, 2015, 11:49 AM
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I don´t quite agree, i don´t think the french government would favor it´s overseas territories interests over their own
What's "their own"??

The French government is elected also by people in Overseas France, so their interest is also their own, unless they wish to be defeated at the next election.
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just an example, even hawaii recognises hawaiian language as official, not so in french Guayana with minorities
Regional languages are not recognized in Metropolitan France either. So no difference.
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If the Eurozone keeps losing its money based advantage, as it´s being the case right now, and economic power of France in the world declines, there would be less reasons for many to keep being part of a far away country (same happened here in Argentina with Spain 200 years ago).
Lol. Completely different story. As Minato Ku already explained to you, there's a strong cultural integration between Metropolitan France and Overseas France (to say nothing of the political and economic integration of course), so it's very unlikely a separation will take place.
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  #418  
Old Posted Feb 26, 2015, 10:23 PM
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What's "their own"??

The French government is elected also by people in Overseas France, so their interest is also their own, unless they wish to be defeated at the next election.
lol, if votes were the solution for all... what if they once voted to be independent or to breakup with france?:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of...orial_disputes
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Decolonization


Quote:
Regional languages are not recognized in Metropolitan France either. So no difference.
just another reason to breakup with far away France

Quote:
Lol. Completely different story. As Minato Ku already explained to you, there's a strong cultural integration between Metropolitan France and Overseas France (to say nothing of the political and economic integration of course), so it's very unlikely a separation will take place
I don´t doubt there´s strong integration right now, after all, france has been (and is still) more or less one of the biggest economic and cultural worldpowers all since the modern history. It´s not a coincidence that "former" worldpowers like Portugal or spain lost all of their overseas territories, not so UK and France.

But let me doubt that a country like france will be able to keep it´s current geopolitical and economic influence in the long term, in regions like south america or the pacific to ensure its sovereignty in all of its overseas departments if it has to compete with emerging economic powers like brazil (which already surpassed france´s GDP last year), australia or Mexico.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of...s_by_GDP_(PPP)

Surinam and former english Guyana are already a step ahead

check these:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guyana
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suriname


Of course all this is still based on assumptions, so if those regions still benefit from being part of france noone can deny its right to do so, as noone should deny its right to be independent

Last edited by flash110; Feb 26, 2015 at 10:35 PM.
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  #419  
Old Posted Feb 28, 2015, 3:50 PM
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^ Sorry but I find you're just somewhat showing some kind of stereotypical bitterness from the so-called New World to so-called old Europe, which is nothing much of a novelty to us. We've been used to it for generations, while we are still here, right? Excuse-me but as far as I can go past, none of my freaking ancestors felt the need to leave our country, while they weren't all well off. Some were from the working class and nonetheless found future for themselves over here. You see what I mean? I think you should clean up your front door before charging any foreigner, including Europeans. That's what I usually do myself, which is much more elegant.

There's a precedent when it comes to French-American territories taking their independence from metropolitan France, that is Haiti. We all know, especially people from Martinique, Guadeloupe or any French overseas territory about the outcome that's been pretty disastrous so far. That's partly why we'd rather think twice before voting for a prospective dismemberment of our nation that will not last forever, however, granted. We're too small to achieve big things on our own, we're quite aware. But then our foreseeable future belongs to a better integrated and federal European Union, nowhere else.

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Regional languages are not recognized in Metropolitan France either. So no difference.
That's a complete nonsense nowadays, though. It's not like the Breton language would any longer threaten the practice of French in Brittany in any way. Same for Occitan in the metropolitan southern regions and so on. I'm all for promoting any cultural and historic trait or specifics in all French regions, now. It would help create wealth from my perspective. We need to grow more open-minded and flexible indeed, huh.
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  #420  
Old Posted Feb 28, 2015, 6:22 PM
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Frankfurt vs Toulouse vs Lyon.

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