City Murder Rates

[SIGSEGV]

Originally Posted by Pedestrian

Let's be honest. These "bad areas" are what we used to call "ghettos": neighborhoods of very poor, mostly minority people fighting among themselves over the crumbs of society.

We have been trying for generations to find ways to deal with generational poverty and the crime it breeds . . . with little success except by incarcerating large percentages of the populations of these neighborhoods (which we have done).

But there is almost no chance someone not forced by their socio-economic reality to live in these areas would have to go there or, if they are smart, would go there. Your kids would only venture there if they are in the market for drugs. I suppose they might wish to ride a bus line that transits one of these zones but that's why God gave us Uber: You don't need to subject yourself to the "blinders on" mentality of a city transit bureaucrat pretending it's safe to send the rest of the public into the war zone.

Why doesn't Canada have this issue? Well Canada didn't have slavery for a start (and the legacy of that is responsible for a lot of what is still going on). And Canada has the US as a buffer between it and the poverty, crime and violence of Latin America. Finally, one might blame US gun policy but I am confident these neighborhoods would be as dangerous for outsiders even if there weren't guns. Most of the shootings are of neighborhood rivals and are not mass events like the more famous school incidents. Once the weapon of choice may have been the switch blade knife, and it could be again, but the neighborhoods were still dangerous.

You're much less likely to get caught in the cross-fire of a switchblade attack though.

Anyway I've taken buses through some of the worst neighborhoods in Chicago (to get to the other side... like going to Midway Airport from the University of Chicago) and... it's fine. I suppose if you accidentally got off at the wrong corner it might be uncomfortable but you're unlikely to be in grave danger...

[liat91]

It’s pretty easy for me to surmise. The majority of high homicide geographic nodes are located in poor areas that developed due to past forced racist segregationist policies. And if one says they can just move, explain why after the ‘08 crash, state to state migration cratered? Name a large area with a lot of murders that doesn’t fit this description?

[BrownTown]

Originally Posted by liat91

It’s pretty easy for me to surmise. The majority of high homicide geographic nodes are located in poor areas that developed due to past forced racist segregationist policies. And if one says they can just move, explain why after the ‘08 crash, state to state migration cratered? Name a large area with a lot of murders that doesn’t fit this description?

Not sure which post you're responding too, but the vast majority of Americans don't live in such areas and therefore can avoid them.

[jtown,man]

Originally Posted by Pedestrian

Why doesn't Canada have this issue? Well Canada didn't have slavery for a start (and the legacy of that is responsible for a lot of what is still going on). And Canada has the US as a buffer between it and the poverty, crime and violence of Latin America. Finally, one might blame US gun policy but I am confident these neighborhoods would be as dangerous for outsiders even if there weren't guns. Most of the shootings are of neighborhood rivals and are not mass events like the more famous school incidents. Once the weapon of choice may have been the switch blade knife, and it could be again, but the neighborhoods were still dangerous.

I don't think slavery has much to do with any of the violence we see today. If that were the case wouldnt crime have been much much worse in the immediate years after slavery? High crime in America started after 1960. Single parenthood was low in America pre-1960, then it exploded and within 20 years you have 75% and 25% of black and white babies being born with no father present. Even accounting for a modern world where some do not wish to marry but still love and live with each other and take care of their kids, those numbers are the primary cause of crime. People don't like to talk about it. Its an emotional reaction. "I grew up with just a mom and turned out fine" usually comes up. And duh, most single parent kids end up fine, but a significant minority do not, and thats a major issue, definitely when you add in drugs.

[SIGSEGV]

Originally Posted by jtown,man

I don't think slavery has much to do with any of the violence we see today. If that were the case wouldnt crime have been much much worse in the immediate years after slavery? High crime in America started after 1960. Single parenthood was low in America pre-1960, then it exploded and within 20 years you have 75% and 25% of black and white babies being born with no father present. Even accounting for a modern world where some do not wish to marry but still love and live with each other and take care of their kids, those numbers are the primary cause of crime. People don't like to talk about it. Its an emotional reaction. "I grew up with just a mom and turned out fine" usually comes up. And duh, most single parent kids end up fine, but a significant minority do not, and thats a major issue, definitely when you add in drugs.

I dispute your hypothesis. According to this random site I found (https://spacedoutscientist.com/2017/...cs-and-trends/) Denmark and the UK have higher rates of single parenthood, apparently, than the US. Canada's is lower but only by 33%.

On the contrary, pretty much every violent neighborhood in the US I can think of is formerly redlined. Here's a random article somewhat supporting my conjecture: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...=.0dc549ffbee1

[Steely Dan]

Chicago year end homicide totals from heyjackass.com

2016: 808
2017: 683
2018: 588

Drops of 27.2% and 13.9%% from 2016 and 2017, respectively.




And the total number of people shot is also down significantly again this year.

2016: 4,380
2017: 3,561
2018: 2,961

Drops of 32.4% and 16.8%% from 2016 and 2017, respectively.




Still WAY too much fucking violence in this town, but the trend line is thankfully still downward from 2016's massive spike.

[Gresto]

Toronto had its worst-ever year with 96 homicides. Hopefully it will prove to have been an aberration.

[tablemtn]

It was another peaceful year for the Madrid region ('la Comunidad de Madrid;' population 6,4770,000), with a total of 34 murders for a rate of 0.52 per 100,000, among the lowest for major European cities:

The Madrid region recorded 34 murders in 2018

Only 3 of those murders were from shootings.

On the other end of the scale, Spain's former colony of El Salvador finished the year with 3,340 murders for c. 6.2 million, or a rate of 53.9.

Portland ended the year with 28 murders and an uncharacteristically-high five justified homicides. Both numbers are way up from the 14 murders in 2013, as the homelessness crisis and a street-gang war have overwhelmed local police. For a population of slightly less than 650,000, those murders represent a rate of 4.3.

33 homicides in Portland in 2018 involved victims ranging in age from 18 to 89

[SlidellWx]

New Orleans finished 2018 with the lowest murder total since 1971. There were 145 murders in the city.

https://www.nola.com/crime/2019/01/n...a-century.html

[LMich]

Detroit's number and rate didn't fall nearly as much as most would have liked:

2014: 299
2015: 295
2016: 305
2017: 267
2018: 261

This puts the rate at around 39 per 100,000 for the year, and lowest raw number since 1966.

[Boisebro]

Boise (pop 230,000) finished the year with 2, one in January and one in July.

2015: 1
2016: 6
2017: 1
2018: 2

[jtown,man]

Originally Posted by SIGSEGV

I dispute your hypothesis. According to this random site I found (https://spacedoutscientist.com/2017/...cs-and-trends/) Denmark and the UK have higher rates of single parenthood, apparently, than the US. Canada's is lower but only by 33%.

On the contrary, pretty much every violent neighborhood in the US I can think of is formerly redlined. Here's a random article somewhat supporting my conjecture: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...=.0dc549ffbee1

Why did crime spike after actual legal segregation ended? Can you explain that?

[BG918]

Denver ends 2018 with the most murders since 2004 (67).

https://www.9news.com/article/news/i...4-a68db62b708d

[muertecaza]

Year-end numbers for Phoenix by my count:

Murders: 101
Manslaughter/Negligent Homicide: 10
Justifiable homicide: 7
Homicides still pending classification: 15

Total: 133 homicides in 2018, between 101 and 126 "murders" depending on what we're counting for this thread.

This is a decrease from 159 homicides (and between 139 and 159 "murders," depending on definition) in 2017, and 146 total homicides in 2016. We are still not back down to the long-time low of 113 in 2015.

Based on 2017 population estimates, this puts Phoenix at 8.2 homicides per 100,000, down from 9.8 homicides per 100,000 in 2017.

[LosAngelesSportsFan]

City of LA as of 12/29/18

2018 - 258
2017 - 281
2016 - 294

Down 8.2% and 12.2% respectively

Total violent crime down 3.4% from 2017 and up 1.2% from 2016

I believe LA Sheriff had a similar drop in homicides and total crime.

Good news all around

[AudiDriver]

Sad reality though.

[dc_denizen]

new york - 289 (https://abc7ny.com/nyc-sees-record-l...-data/5000622/)

I believe that puts new york UNDER toronto in per capita murders (despite Torontos very different demographics).

New York City is safer than Toronto, Canada. let that sink in.

[The North One]

^ murder rate is far from the only measure of safety and this is just a one year fluke.

Also, what were the metro area numbers?

[MonkeyRonin]

Originally Posted by dc_denizen

new york - 289 (https://abc7ny.com/nyc-sees-record-l...-data/5000622/)

I believe that puts new york UNDER toronto in per capita murders (despite Torontos very different demographics).

New York City is safer than Toronto, Canada. let that sink in.

Given a 2018 population estimate of 8,550,405 for NYC and 2,970,000 for Toronto, that would work out to a murder rate of 3.38 for New York and and 3.23/100,000 for Toronto. So, close, but not quite.

Either way, that the US's safest big city has a murder rate roughly equal to Canada's most dangerous for the year isn't particularly surprising or unusual. The only thing that's really changed are the cities that occupy each position.

[mrnyc]

^ not to mention the quality of the murders themselves. they are probably more stabby in the canadian states and more gunny in the lower states.