Housing Bubble II: The Quest To Build Enough Homes Where People Actually Need Them

[theman23]

Originally Posted by Doady

If only we had a PM with the balls to stop all immigration, then Toronto could build a subway system on par with Tokyo's.

Said absolutely no one ever. Even if we were to go back to 2015 levels we would be bringing in more immigrants than most countries.

[thewave46]

Predictably, this thread - being a product of the internet - has taken up the extreme positions with absolutely no nuance.

Do I think Japan and other highly developed East Asian economies have every facet figured out, and we should emulate them exactly? Absolutely not. They’ve their flaws and plenty visible ones at that. However, we should not be blind to their successes, nor ignore their lessons.

Indeed, the trajectory of late-era Canada/NZ/Australia and developed East Asian countries has taken nearly opposite tracks; an examination of the upsides and downsides of each and what consequences of those choices are is merited.

The former have effectively turned into low value-add resource-dependent colonies with extreme housing costs due to high growth rates fuelled by immigration. Their advantage in high immigration has reduced the liability of promises made to the older generation. However, they are at the mercy of global resource prices, and the high housing costs may prove to stoke populist sentiment among the young disenchanted locals. This is not an ideal situation for political stability.

The latter are value-add powerhouses, but their demographic structure and resistance to change or immigration may prove to be their undoing in another sense. It will be ever more difficult for them to retain their advantages under the strains their societies face. Political stagnation is the greater concern here.

There is actually a middle way in this situation for Canada, from both from an economic development point-of-view and immigration policy point-of-view, and it was one we seemingly did better a couple of decades ago.

[Truenorth00]

It's more than just housing. I was explaining my childcare difficulties to a friend in Eastern Europe. His response? "Sounds like having a kid in Canada is like having a Ferrari. And very few people have more than one Ferrari."

Canada. The country that won't build daycares with elementary schools. And the only country in the developed world without a universal school lunch program. Even those supposedly ultra-capitalist Americans feed their kids (even if a lot of the food is crap). A program first started at the behest of the Pentagon who considered childhood malnutrition a threat to national security. Compare this from a Canadian who moved to Japan:

• Video Link

[MolsonExport]

Japan does a much better job taking care of its younger people, whereas Canada does a much better job taking care of its older people. Japan relied on a collectivistic culture mindset, i.e., that children would always look after their elderly relatives, which worked great until it didn't.
I agree that some re-balancing is necessary. On the other hand, Japan's birthrate is even lower than Canada's (but wow, our rate has dropped quickly towards theirs).
Japan 1.34 births/female
Canada 1.40 births/female

[theman23]

Originally Posted by Nite

Nearly every western country has been increasing immigration to deal with the same problem as Canada ie labour shortages, the Anglosphere especially. Canada has a lower birth rate than most of it peers and the demand for labour has been greater as well.

Are Canadians anatomically and physiologically inferior to the Australians and Americans? Australia grew by 500k in the last year, with natural growth accounting for about 20% of that growth. We grew by 1.2 million, with natural growth accounting for about 3% of that growth. In raw unadjusted numbers, their natural growth is about 3 to 4 times higher than ours (108,000 vs 28,000). Perhaps there's more to it than biology and policy may play a role. Certainly doesn't help that the average young person in this country can't afford a place to raise a family.

I'm not sure how anyone can look at the trends and think any of this bodes well for us. 10 years ago we were ahead of the Americans and Australians when it came to economic prosperity. Now they've left us in the dust, but in typical Canadian fashion we have to keep patting ourselves on the back so we justify it by pointing to the old men of Europe and Asia.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by theman23

I'm not sure how anyone can look at the trends and think any of this bodes well for us.

Depends who exactly is that “us”. Obviously it does bode extremely well for the “Landed Gentry”. If we made a slight change to our system so that only property owners are considered full citizens (like in the good old days) then the Ponzi Scheme would officially be good for everyone (i.e. everyone who matters)

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by thebasketballgeek

the 2 greatest forms of media in the world known as Anime and Manga produced there.

You had me until this.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by MolsonExport

Japan does a much better job taking care of its younger people, whereas Canada does a much better job taking care of its older people. Japan relied on a collectivistic culture mindset, i.e., that children would always look after their elderly relatives, which worked great until it didn't.
I agree that some re-balancing is necessary. On the other hand, Japan's birthrate is even lower than Canada's (but wow, our rate has dropped quickly towards theirs).
Japan 1.34 births/female
Canada 1.40 births/female

I think how a society cares for its most vulnerable citizens says a lot about their values. We don't take care of our kids. And really we're setting up to fail our seniors too.

[MolsonExport]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

I think how a society cares for its most vulnerable citizens says a lot about their values. We don't take care of our kids. And really we're setting up to fail our seniors too.

I agree fully.

[theman23]

Originally Posted by lio45

Depends who exactly is that “us”. Obviously it does bode extremely well for the “Landed Gentry”. If we made a slight change to our system so that only property owners are considered full citizens (like in the good old days) then the Ponzi Scheme would officially be good for everyone (i.e. everyone who matters)

I mean us as a society now and in the future. Obviously the”fuck you I got mine” generation has benefited tremendously and some of them will fight tooth and nail to save their retirement plan, but these people have maybe 10 to 40 quality years of life expectancy remaining (and that latter number is only that large because I’m including older millennials…the vast majority are on the lower end of the spectrum). We’re sacrificing the future of this country to save a Ponzi retirement scheme for a demographic (the boomers and Gen X) that isn’t going to be around too long.

[MonkeyRonin]

Originally Posted by MolsonExport

Japan does a much better job taking care of its younger people, whereas Canada does a much better job taking care of its older people. Japan relied on a collectivistic culture mindset, i.e., that children would always look after their elderly relatives, which worked great until it didn't.
I agree that some re-balancing is necessary. On the other hand, Japan's birthrate is even lower than Canada's (but wow, our rate has dropped quickly towards theirs).
Japan 1.34 births/female
Canada 1.40 births/female

Birth rates are declining everywhere, but few as quickly as Canada. Compared to most of our culturally/economically similar peers with less severe housing/cost of living crises, all are higher:

France: 1.83
Denmark: 1.67
Sweden: 1.66
US: 1.64
Ireland: 1.63
New Zealand: 1.61
Australia: 1.58
UK: 1.56
Germany: 1.53

What else would we expect when this country is run as a gerontocracy?

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by MolsonExport

I agree that some re-balancing is necessary. On the other hand, Japan's birthrate is even lower than Canada's (but wow, our rate has dropped quickly towards theirs).
Japan 1.34 births/female
Canada 1.40 births/female

Originally Posted by MonkeyRonin

Birth rates are declining everywhere, but few as quickly as Canada. Compared to most of our culturally/economically similar peers with less severe housing/cost of living crises, all are higher:

France: 1.83
Denmark: 1.67
Sweden: 1.66
US: 1.64
Ireland: 1.63
New Zealand: 1.61
Australia: 1.58
UK: 1.56
Germany: 1.53

What else would we expect when this country is run as a gerontocracy?

It really is an accomplishment to achieve Japanese birth rates without their infrastructure or social services.

[hipster duck]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

I think how a society cares for its most vulnerable citizens says a lot about their values. We don't take care of our kids. And really we're setting up to fail our seniors too.

We're not failing our seniors.

There are so many wage supports for Canadian seniors. Many of them have defined benefit pensions, not just former government workers. Those that don't have defined benefit pensions have CPP. And those that don't have CPP because they didn't work much in their lives get OAS. That's basically UBI for seniors! Safety net after safety net after safety net.

Low income seniors get so many other freebies too:

- pharmacare
- dental care
- property tax deferrals (many of them own multimillion dollar properties free and clear, but have "low incomes")

It does not suck to be a senior in Canada.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by hipster duck

We're not failing our seniors.

There are so many wage supports for Canadian seniors. Many of them have defined benefit pensions, not just former government workers. Those that don't have defined benefit pensions have CPP. And those that don't have CPP because they didn't work much in their lives get OAS. That's basically UBI for seniors! Safety net after safety net after safety net.

Low income seniors get so many other freebies too:

- pharmacare
- dental care
- property tax deferrals (many of them own multimillion dollar properties free and clear, but have "low incomes")

It does not suck to be a senior in Canada.

The pensions and home values are nice. But our system was supposed to set up to do aging in place. And we really haven't done that. In about a decade that hole is going to become a lot more obvious. Also, a big part of aging in place, is having your kids and grandkids nearby. We've mostly failed at that.

[Changing City]

Originally Posted by MonkeyRonin

Birth rates are declining everywhere, but few as quickly as Canada. Compared to most of our culturally/economically similar peers with less severe housing/cost of living crises, all are higher:

France: 1.83
Denmark: 1.67
Sweden: 1.66
US: 1.64
Ireland: 1.63
New Zealand: 1.61
Australia: 1.58
UK: 1.56
Germany: 1.53

What else would we expect when this country is run as a gerontocracy?

Obviously the decision to have kids is partly related to housing, and the economy. But your list doesn't really explain all the countries with an even lower fertility rates than Canada's 1.43 (using the same data set you referenced), that also have lower housing costs.

Greece 1.39
Portugal 1.38
Poland 1.33
Italy 1.25
Spain 1.19

[p_xavier]

Originally Posted by lio45

Yep. I keep pointing out that the current levels of what we call a “crisis” now are totally not anywhere near a crisis, when you look at what’s coming.

We keep importing crazy amounts of new suckers, way beyond our realistic ability to build (considering plenty of non-flexible limiting factors like land, labor, materials, capital), so the so-called “crisis” right now is going to keep worsening unless we dial down the Ponzi Scheme substantially.

(And even the probable next PM doesn’t seem to want to do that.)

In summary:
Right now Canadian rents are very cheap, compared to what’s coming;
Right now there’s barely any homelessness, compared to what’s coming.

Unless we change course, somehow.

Unstable countries bring in revolutions... Scary times ahead.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by Changing City

Obviously the decision to have kids is partly related to housing, and the economy. But your list doesn't really explain all the countries with an even lower fertility rates than Canada's 1.43 (using the same data set you referenced), that also have lower housing costs.

Greece 1.39
Portugal 1.38
Poland 1.33
Italy 1.25
Spain 1.19

You mean the countries which went through an economic crisis a decade ago and are some of the few developed countries with worse prospects for young people than Canada. Poland I believe has some hangover of the post-Communist era.

These countries are terrible for Millennials too. Watch this on Spain:

• Video Link

[theman23]

It’s the same old story on this forum. We’re doing worse than our peers? Let’s compare ourselves with a group of struggling countries that no one would ever have benchmarked against to make ourselves look better. We’re literally the worst in the world? Let’s obfuscate by ignoring the details of the data and cherry pick anecdotes from the rest of the world that make it seem like others are in the same boat.

[someone123]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Also, a big part of aging in place, is having your kids and grandkids nearby. We've mostly failed at that.

This reminds me a bit of the Hillary Clinton comment that women are the primary victims of war.

It's true that there are some disadvantaged seniors and they suffer if their kids suffer. But if you look at trade-offs in allocating resources, wealthy senior homeowners get a lot of government goodies even though they'd still probably have the highest living standard in the country without them. If we were to fairly adjust not just the transfer taps but also who policy benefits most, those wealthy seniors would get less and younger people struggling to afford housing would get a bit more on average.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by theman23

It’s the same old story on this forum. We’re doing worse than our peers? Let’s compare ourselves with a group of struggling countries that no one would ever have benchmarked against to make ourselves look better. We’re literally the worst in the world? Let’s obfuscate by ignoring the details of the data and cherry pick anecdotes from the rest of the world that make it seem like others are in the same boat.

Yep. Never thought I'd see a serious (non-sarcastic) response that compared Canada to the PIGS and an ex-Communist country.

I guess we should hold out for, "At least we're not < insert name of basket case developing country >."