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  #61  
Old Posted Oct 28, 2019, 4:37 PM
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Originally Posted by jtown,man View Post
What do you mean by plummeted?
By plummet he means that the immigrant share in the US is near an all-time record high -- closing in on the 1890s.

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  #62  
Old Posted Oct 28, 2019, 5:04 PM
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There's higher chances of hurricanes hitting the NE than tornadoes in Vermont or wildfires in Michigan. You're assuming the absolute worst risk of a Cat-5, but it doesn't take a Cat-5 to cause tremendous damage (see Sandy). I never said the Gulf Coast was not at a higher risk for hurricanes either, but to believe the NE is immune to hurricanes or earthquakes is being dishonest.
Don't die on that hill. When it comes to major disasters, Houston and the Gulf coast are far more vulnerable than the Northeast. I lived half my life in New York and never went through a major hurricane/ tropical storm up there. Though went through Irene in 2011 when visiting which throttled Vermont. I lost track of tropical storms and hurricanes I went through since I've moved here. The most common issue up there are nor'easters.

I think all coastal cities are equally vulnerable to climate change however. If Houston falls into the Gulf, New York is falling into the Atlantic...
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  #63  
Old Posted Oct 28, 2019, 10:38 PM
craigs craigs is offline
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Is it fair to conclude Houston's ongoing population growth and laissez-faire approach to zoning and development have put more homes and businesses into flood-prone areas than ever before?

It's hard to tell from maps if there are more elevated and less flood-prone areas that are realistically viable for future development. I understand there can be densification in certain inner parts of Houston proper, so that kind of growth is easily anticipated, but can the region continue to grow outward without developing areas that will flood regularly?
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  #64  
Old Posted Oct 28, 2019, 10:44 PM
Obadno Obadno is offline
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Originally Posted by craigs View Post
Is it fair to conclude Houston's ongoing population growth and laissez-faire approach to zoning and development have put more homes and businesses into flood-prone areas than ever before?

It's hard to tell from maps if there are more elevated and less flood-prone areas that are realistically viable for future development. I understand there can be densification in certain inner parts of Houston proper, so that kind of growth is easily anticipated, but can the region continue to grow outward without developing areas that will flood regularly?
Building in flood areas is self regulating as insurance companies wont cover homes built in flood zones without proper flood polices, neither will banks mortgage properties in flood zones sometimes even with proper coverage.

I dont think that's a serious issue.
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  #65  
Old Posted Oct 28, 2019, 10:48 PM
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Originally Posted by craigs View Post
Is it fair to conclude Houston's ongoing population growth and laissez-faire approach to zoning and development have put more homes and businesses into flood-prone areas than ever before?

It's hard to tell from maps if there are more elevated and less flood-prone areas that are realistically viable for future development. I understand there can be densification in certain inner parts of Houston proper, so that kind of growth is easily anticipated, but can the region continue to grow outward without developing areas that will flood regularly?
No but they do anyway. Houston doesn't have zoning but it does have some stringent deed restrictions and if they wanted to, they could be more assertive about development in flood prone areas. I think the county also has more of a role here but not sure. Near us, they bought out a bunch of flooded houses.
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  #66  
Old Posted Oct 29, 2019, 12:17 AM
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Originally Posted by Sun Belt View Post
By plummet he means that the immigrant share in the US is near an all-time record high -- closing in on the 1890s.
You do realize this graphic has nothing to do with the conversation, right?

Immigration rates have plummeted. That has nothing to do with immigrants as share of the U.S. population. Obviously the share won't be affected for many decades, since the immigration bulge happened over the last thirty years.

Everyone doesn't just die a year after they immigrate; the immigrants dying now are baby boomers or older, when immigration was comparatively rare. The overall share probably won't plummet till 2050 or so.
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  #67  
Old Posted Oct 29, 2019, 12:41 PM
dave8721 dave8721 is offline
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Originally Posted by Crawford View Post
You do realize this graphic has nothing to do with the conversation, right?

Immigration rates have plummeted. That has nothing to do with immigrants as share of the U.S. population. Obviously the share won't be affected for many decades, since the immigration bulge happened over the last thirty years.

Everyone doesn't just die a year after they immigrate; the immigrants dying now are baby boomers or older, when immigration was comparatively rare. The overall share probably won't plummet till 2050 or so.
If anything the share will likely increase in the coming years as the largely native boomers die off even if immigration rates fall farther.
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  #68  
Old Posted Oct 29, 2019, 5:10 PM
jtown,man jtown,man is offline
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Originally Posted by Crawford View Post
You do realize this graphic has nothing to do with the conversation, right?

Immigration rates have plummeted. That has nothing to do with immigrants as share of the U.S. population. Obviously the share won't be affected for many decades, since the immigration bulge happened over the last thirty years.

Everyone doesn't just die a year after they immigrate; the immigrants dying now are baby boomers or older, when immigration was comparatively rare. The overall share probably won't plummet till 2050 or so.
But...immigration rates into the USA haven't "plummeted."
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  #69  
Old Posted Oct 29, 2019, 5:15 PM
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Originally Posted by craigs View Post
Is it fair to conclude Houston's ongoing population growth and laissez-faire approach to zoning and development have put more homes and businesses into flood-prone areas than ever before?

It's hard to tell from maps if there are more elevated and less flood-prone areas that are realistically viable for future development. I understand there can be densification in certain inner parts of Houston proper, so that kind of growth is easily anticipated, but can the region continue to grow outward without developing areas that will flood regularly?
Houston isn't just growing outwards though. It's densifying pretty fast inside the Beltway but especially inside I-610. A lot of empty-nesters have sold their suburban homes once the kids are grown, and have been moving into to highrise towers. There's even been a small senior-living luxury highrise boom in Houston specifically for these people.

It can continue to grow outwards as long as it's smart growth, especially out west and north. I don't think the southern sides of Houston will expand too much. Harvey and other recent floods taught the region that you can't cut corners on regulations. Harris County literally allowed entire neighborhoods to be built in a reservoir. Why the homeowners didn't notice this or why they just had to build in these areas is the question. But, homes not built in flood zones post 2000 did not have flooding problems because the regulations had improved by then.

Another problem for Houston is the vast amounts of unincorporated areas. If the city had more incorporated suburbs that could plan their growth better (like in Dallas-Fort Worth), I don't think Houston would have had the problems it recently had with floods.
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  #70  
Old Posted Oct 29, 2019, 5:16 PM
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Originally Posted by jtown,man View Post
But...immigration rates into the USA haven't "plummeted."
Yes, immigration into the U.S. has plummeted:

Quote:
The United States population gained immigrants at the slowest pace in a decade last year, according to an analysis of new census data, a notable slowdown...

The net increase of immigrants in the American population dropped to about 200,000 people in 2018, a decline of more than 70 percent from the year before, according to William Frey, chief demographer at the Brookings Institution, who conducted the analysis.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/26/u...migration.html

Last edited by iheartthed; Oct 29, 2019 at 6:21 PM.
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  #71  
Old Posted Oct 29, 2019, 5:22 PM
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Originally Posted by jtown,man View Post
But...immigration rates into the USA haven't "plummeted."
Then how would you define "plummeted"? As long as there are more than zero immigrants, immigration hasn't "plummeted"?

Immigration to U.S. has fallen off a cliff, at the same time birth rates are setting new record lows. This is extremely worrisome for anyone who cares about the future of the U.S. Demographically, we've joined Europe.
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  #72  
Old Posted Oct 29, 2019, 6:13 PM
IrishIllini IrishIllini is offline
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Originally Posted by Crawford View Post
Then how would you define "plummeted"? As long as there are more than zero immigrants, immigration hasn't "plummeted"?

Immigration to U.S. has fallen off a cliff, at the same time birth rates are setting new record lows. This is extremely worrisome for anyone who cares about the future of the U.S. Demographically, we've joined Europe.
The US could open the door to immigration. We’ve chosen not to. I guess you could say the same of Europe, but the US is a nation of immigrants.
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  #73  
Old Posted Oct 29, 2019, 7:05 PM
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Originally Posted by IrishIllini View Post
The US could open the door to immigration. We’ve chosen not to. I guess you could say the same of Europe, but the US is a nation of immigrants.
I don't think we can like we did 100 years ago. Back then, we just needed people..and badly. Today, the workforce is a little more discriminating as far as skillsets.
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  #74  
Old Posted Oct 29, 2019, 7:41 PM
IrishIllini IrishIllini is offline
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I don't think we can like we did 100 years ago. Back then, we just needed people..and badly. Today, the workforce is a little more discriminating as far as skillsets.
Very true, but immigrants or their children have historically been some of our country’s greatest innovators. I don’t know off hand the exact percentage, but a large number of F500s were founded by immigrants or their children.
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  #75  
Old Posted Oct 29, 2019, 7:45 PM
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Very true, but immigrants or their children have historically been some of our country’s greatest innovators. I don’t know off hand the exact percentage, but a large number of F500s were founded by immigrants or their children.
And we still welcome these folks with welcome arms. It's the poorer/ unskilled ones we tend to struggle with now.
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  #76  
Old Posted Oct 29, 2019, 8:00 PM
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Immigrants are a big part of our tech workforce.

And start a huge percentage of our storefront businesses. That includes many from low-education backgrounds.

They're also the only thing keeping the US from having too few workers vs. retirees and kids, particularly as boomers age.
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  #77  
Old Posted Oct 29, 2019, 8:03 PM
iheartthed iheartthed is offline
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Originally Posted by JManc View Post
And we still welcome these folks with welcome arms. It's the poorer/ unskilled ones we tend to struggle with now.
I know this will get a lot of heat, but... As of January 20, 2017, we are certainly not welcoming them with open arms. The current administration has done almost all that it can to decimate the highly skilled worker visa program. I'm actually eavesdropping on a conversation happening right next to me now, where one of the women is having issues finding a company that will sponsor her H1b. She's going to have an extremely hard time finding an employer compared to two years ago.

I've been involved will hiring highly skilled workers for the past 6 or 7 years. Many of the largest H1b sponsors from just two years ago have stopped sponsoring altogether.

While there were companies abusing the H1b program, it was largely not being abused by companies with significant business operations in the U.S. And I doubt the hostility by the Trump admin is actually doing anything to address how those companies were abusing the program. It's even possible that the actions by the Trump admin are even creating an environment for those companies to exploit the program even more.
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  #78  
Old Posted Oct 29, 2019, 8:36 PM
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Originally Posted by iheartthed View Post
I know this will get a lot of heat, but... As of January 20, 2017, we are certainly not welcoming them with open arms. The current administration has done almost all that it can to decimate the highly skilled worker visa program. I'm actually eavesdropping on a conversation happening right next to me now, where one of the women is having issues finding a company that will sponsor her H1b. She's going to have an extremely hard time finding an employer compared to two years ago.

I've been involved will hiring highly skilled workers for the past 6 or 7 years. Many of the largest H1b sponsors from just two years ago have stopped sponsoring altogether.

While there were companies abusing the H1b program, it was largely not being abused by companies with significant business operations in the U.S. And I doubt the hostility by the Trump admin is actually doing anything to address how those companies were abusing the program. It's even possible that the actions by the Trump admin are even creating an environment for those companies to exploit the program even more.
Yeah but I've also heard from people in tech up in the Bay that the H1B program allows their company to pay people less than they would say, a recent college grad or someone out there looking for work. Some have been able to hire two H1Bs for the price of one full salaries individual. The thing about H1B is it was being abused by companies. It's like paying an illegal immigrant under the table because you don't want to pay the full minimum wage. Or an organization/company hiring a bunch temporary workers and when their assignments end they add another, and just because they don't want to pay someone's full-time salary + benefits. It was becoming a problem and the current temp worker thing is an underlying big problem I've been seeing.

Surely there were people within this country already who were able to do the job right? Since you did some hiring you would definitely have a better idea there.
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  #79  
Old Posted Oct 29, 2019, 8:41 PM
iheartthed iheartthed is offline
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Yeah but I've also heard from people in tech up in the Bay that the H1B program allows their company to pay people less than they would say, a recent college grad or someone out there looking for work. Some have been able to hire two H1Bs for the price of one full salaries individual. The thing about H1B is it was being abused by companies. It's like paying an illegal immigrant under the table because you don't want to pay the full minimum wage. Or an organization/company hiring a bunch temporary workers and when their assignments end they add another, and just because they don't want to pay someone's full-time salary + benefits. It was becoming a problem and the current temp worker thing is an underlying big problem I've been seeing.

Surely there were people within this country already who were able to do the job right? Since you did some hiring you would definitely have a better idea there.
Not sure where you heard that, but it's not true. It is illegal to pay H1b workers less than market rate.
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  #80  
Old Posted Oct 29, 2019, 8:53 PM
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Originally Posted by iheartthed View Post
Not sure where you heard that, but it's not true. It is illegal to pay H1b workers less than market rate.
It's illegal but could there still be ways around it? Like it's illegal for a company to hire a temp worker without paying the fee, but there are ways around that. Maybe it was just office rumors I was told and not the truth.
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