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View Poll Results: Which state will end up with the highest population?
Georgia 21 35.59%
North Carolina 38 64.41%
Voters: 59. You may not vote on this poll

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  #41  
Old Posted Oct 26, 2019, 12:06 PM
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To answer the question at hand, I wouldn't be surprised if GA retained its lead in the short term, but over the long term I'm thinking the two states just may trade places every or every other decade as they did in much of the 20th century. While Atlanta is still one of the fastest-growing metros in the country, its growth has slowed a bit, traffic concerns still loom large, and its economy is experiencing some high-profile losses among legacy companies like Turner Broadcasting, CNN, and SunTrust (and GA's loss will be NC's gain in that case). Realistically, GA's second-tier metros won't be able to grow fast enough in the short term to make up for some of the slowdown happening in Atlanta.

What NC has working in its favor is primarily Charlotte and the Triangle. Atlanta is still the defacto capital of the Southeast, but gone are the days when Atlanta was the only feasible city in the region for corporate expansions and relocations. Charlotte (especially) and the Triangle are true economic competitors with Atlanta and have proven that they can score some big wins when going up against Atlanta; they are at the sizes where they offer several of the advantages of Atlanta but not as many of the disadvantages. There is still room for massive growth in both metro areas. Although traffic is becoming a worsening issue in both places, they aren't anywhere near the magnitude of Atlanta's either in perception or reality which bodies favorably for them--for now anyway. As Charlotte and the Triangle continue to get built up and developed, the Triad--smack dab between the two--could start getting "overflow" investment and is well-positioned for that both economically and infrastructurallly.

Two caveats with Charlotte and the Triangle are the fact that Charlotte's metro extends into SC and over the past several years, companies have been increasingly choosing the SC side of the metro to relocate in initially or after some years in Mecklenburg County so that detracts somewhat from NC's growth, and challenges in getting rail transit implemented in the Triangle could possibly have some negative consequences for the region.
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  #42  
Old Posted Oct 26, 2019, 12:56 PM
Tuckerman Tuckerman is offline
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Originally Posted by KB0679 View Post



What NC has working in its favor is primarily Charlotte and the Triangle. Atlanta is still the defacto capital of the Southeast, but gone are the days when Atlanta was the only feasible city in the region for corporate expansions and relocations. Charlotte (especially) and the Triangle are true economic competitors with Atlanta and have proven that they can score some big wins when going up against Atlanta; they are at the sizes where they offer several of the advantages of Atlanta but not as many of the disadvantages. There is still room for massive growth in both metro areas. Although traffic is becoming a worsening issue in both places, they aren't anywhere near the magnitude of Atlanta's either in perception or reality which bodies favorably for them--for now anyway. As Charlotte and the Triangle continue to get built up and developed, the Triad--smack dab between the two--could start getting "overflow" investment and is well-positioned for that both economically and infrastructurallly.

Two caveats with Charlotte and the Triangle are the fact that Charlotte's metro extends into SC and over the past several years, companies have been increasingly choosing the SC side of the metro to relocate in initially or after some years in Mecklenburg County so that detracts somewhat from NC's growth, and challenges in getting rail transit implemented in the Triangle could possibly have some negative consequences for the region.
I think your arguments are quite reasonable. Of course this is all future speculation and the past is a guide, but not a certain guide for the future. What appears to be the case is that, as opposed to many other areas of the country, both NC and GA have a fairly balanced growth pattern that is a good mix of domestic and international migration, normal demographic population growth, and fairly healthy growing economies. IMO this means that both areas will continue to grow in population at a steady rate for some time. In short, I believe that whether NC or GA has the higher population is too close to call. The 2020 census should help, but it may have some flaws e.g. undercount of the undocumented population.
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  #43  
Old Posted Oct 26, 2019, 6:40 PM
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Regardless of which of the two has the larger population, I do believe that the long term trend for both will be to settle into the 5 and 6 spots nationally, behind the big 4, CA, TX, FL & NY. So 5 Georgia 6 North Carolina, or, 5 North Carolina 6 Georgia. I'm talking 3 or 4 decades from now.
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  #44  
Old Posted Nov 3, 2019, 2:29 PM
WSUSOM WSUSOM is offline
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Originally Posted by edale View Post
Damn, Georgia is really like a southern Illinois in this sense. It only has about a million people less than Ohio, but Ohio has 7 metro areas with more than 500,000 people.
I've always compared Georgia: Atlanta to Illinois: Chicago when discussing what other U.S state:city has similar population disbursements
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  #45  
Old Posted Nov 4, 2019, 1:24 AM
Dariusb Dariusb is offline
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Originally Posted by Sun Belt View Post
The Charlotte CSA, the Triad CSA, the Trangle CSA, run up to one another forming an arch across North Carolina along the 85 corridor and all 3 are high growth areas in the state.

Since 2010, the bookends, Charlotte CSA has grown by +15%, The Triangle CSA +17 and in between the bookends +6%.

North Carolina is growing by about 1 million people per decade. The rural counties are experience stagnant growth, some negative. Much of the growth is focused in this area I'm describing above.

Here's an article from 2013 talking about the same thing:
https://www.wral.com/research-sugges...come/13198443/
I read an article a couple of years ago about an emerging NC megalopolis stretching from Raleigh/Durham across the state through Burlington, Greensboro/Winston Salem , Charlotte and into SC around Greenville/Spartanburg. Whether that happens only time will tell but I found it interesting.
To answer the question, I'll say NC but since they're neck and neck anything can happen.
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  #46  
Old Posted Nov 4, 2019, 3:17 AM
CaliNative CaliNative is offline
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I think NorCar catches GA eventually

NorCar has more population centers--Charlotte, Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill, Winston-Salem etc. This could move it ahead in the future. In GA it is Atlanta. All the rest are secondary. The polycentric model has advantages.
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  #47  
Old Posted Dec 3, 2019, 8:24 PM
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L41A L41A is offline
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Originally Posted by SteveD View Post
Regardless of which of the two has the larger population, I do believe that the long term trend for both will be to settle into the 5 and 6 spots nationally, behind the big 4, CA, TX, FL & NY. So 5 Georgia 6 North Carolina, or, 5 North Carolina 6 Georgia. I'm talking 3 or 4 decades from now.

I see both GA and NC having a similar population for decades.
Georgia had been outpacing North Carolina in population for years/decades and surpassed it population in 1990s. According to estimates, it's only been in the recent past (2010-ish) that both NC and GA both has been nearly the same in population growth, around healthy 9%.
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  #48  
Old Posted Dec 4, 2019, 1:36 AM
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Georgia....
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