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  #1  
Old Posted Apr 19, 2019, 2:53 AM
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Will Asian American immigration (like Hispanics did in the 2000s) peak/slow soon?

Immigration from Latin America has already reached its peak I think (since the 2000s, the proportion foreign born among Hispanic/Latino Americans has fallen). Return migration has also been a factor. So, Hispanics/Latinos are already following the trend of past immigrants from Europe, where the immigrant experience is slowly receding and the American-born generation is the newer face of the ethnicity.

Is the trend for Asians going to follow soon? Asian immigration is now the fastest growing source for the US. Do you foresee it continuing to be high for a decade or two, or more or is it close to peaking?

Countries like Japan stopped sending large immigrant shares once it got wealthy in the 60s, 70s and 80s, and now many East Asian waves have peaked (eg. Vietnamese refugees after the Vietnam war wave was over, South Korea isn't sending as much as South Korea got rich).

China still sends a lot, but there's the potential that it may slow down (either restrictions get tighter due to political issues, or richer Chinese people stay home)

The Indian/South Asian wave of immigration has grown a lot in the 2000s too and might still continue to grow the US population for a while, unless something changes on either end (either more restrictive policies or if the sending country gets richer so fewer want to leave any more).
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  #2  
Old Posted Apr 19, 2019, 3:34 AM
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Originally Posted by Capsicum View Post
Immigration from Latin America has already reached its peak I think (since the 2000s, the proportion foreign born among Hispanic/Latino Americans has fallen). Return migration has also been a factor. So, Hispanics/Latinos are already following the trend of past immigrants from Europe, where the immigrant experience is slowly receding and the American-born generation is the newer face of the ethnicity.

Is the trend for Asians going to follow soon? Asian immigration is now the fastest growing source for the US. Do you foresee it continuing to be high for a decade or two, or more or is it close to peaking?

Countries like Japan stopped sending large immigrant shares once it got wealthy in the 60s, 70s and 80s, and now many East Asian waves have peaked (eg. Vietnamese refugees after the Vietnam war wave was over, South Korea isn't sending as much as South Korea got rich).

China still sends a lot, but there's the potential that it may slow down (either restrictions get tighter due to political issues, or richer Chinese people stay home)

The Indian/South Asian wave of immigration has grown a lot in the 2000s too and might still continue to grow the US population for a while, unless something changes on either end (either more restrictive policies or if the sending country gets richer so fewer want to leave any more).
Why do you ask about immigration into the United States? How about Canada? May I ask why you ask these things of the US? Why the interest?
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  #3  
Old Posted Apr 19, 2019, 3:34 AM
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asian immigration will slow but continue to show gains. economic prosperity in their home countries will continue and asian birth rates just arent that high. this country will be mexico 2.0 in 100 years. which is fine by me.
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  #4  
Old Posted Apr 19, 2019, 4:16 AM
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asian immigration will slow but continue to show gains. economic prosperity in their home countries will continue and asian birth rates just arent that high. this country will be mexico 2.0 in 100 years. which is fine by me.
I'm starting to believe that too if my experience in NJ is anything to go by.

Birthrates are very high. Unfortunately, at a young age folks are having kids, from what I've observed. Some of these folks don't have a pot to piss on, yet they have 5 kids before age 26.

Lesson to be learned is that this isn't the middle ages, so a high amount of children are not required for a healthy life. Things like medicine and healthcare improvements have made childhood survival higher, so people need to stop having so many kids.

2 would be fine, so one can enjoy life and not be strangled in debt or live pay-check to pay-check. Also to not further strangle the social services, which hate to say it folks, we pay for!

This is just some of the stuff I've observed.
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  #5  
Old Posted Apr 19, 2019, 4:29 AM
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Birthrates are dropping in the US's fastest growing immigrant groups; Hispanics and east Asians. Even in their home countries. Mexico, Vietnam and China have ageing populations.
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  #6  
Old Posted Apr 19, 2019, 1:26 PM
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Originally Posted by sopas ej View Post
Why do you ask about immigration into the United States? How about Canada? May I ask why you ask these things of the US? Why the interest?
Actually, they're two sides of the same coin. Canadian immigration streams are largely the same as U.S. immigration streams, and the U.S. is somewhat more of a first choice but also somewhat more difficult to gain entry.

So when U.S. restricts certain groups (or qualifications) they usually end up in Canada. That's why Persians were big in the U.S. in the 70's and then big in Canada immediately thereafter, following U.S. restrictions.
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  #7  
Old Posted Apr 19, 2019, 1:27 PM
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asian immigration will slow but continue to show gains. economic prosperity in their home countries will continue and asian birth rates just arent that high. this country will be mexico 2.0 in 100 years. which is fine by me.
The U.S. has had net negative immigration from Mexico for years, so that makes no sense. And Mexico has more or less the same birthrates as the U.S.

Asians are the biggest immigrant cohort right now, and given the fact there are billions of Asians, probably biggest cohort going forward. The future of the U.S., long-term, is probably more Asian than Hispanic.
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  #8  
Old Posted Apr 19, 2019, 3:06 PM
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I simply don't see Asian immigration slowing down for a LOOOOOOONG time.

Even if the economy continues to improve in their home countries, they will come to Western countries.

1. There are just WAY too many people in India and China, unlike Mexico
2. There is still a massive wealth gap between Asia and the USA. As long as that exists and there is a chance for enterprising people to move here and advance themselves, they will keep coming.
3. America's legal framework is still better than what they have going on in India. Plus, despite the latest onslaught by nutty socialists, property rights are still fairly strong here. People in Asia probably find that appealing.
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  #9  
Old Posted Apr 19, 2019, 3:13 PM
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Immigration from Asia will likely slow. I wonder if immigration from Africa picks up. Also likely that climate changes induce migration in the near future. It’s probable the US will get a sizable share of these groups.
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  #10  
Old Posted Apr 19, 2019, 3:26 PM
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I suspect most future Asian immigration will be from India and the Philippines.
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Last edited by SIGSEGV; Apr 19, 2019 at 7:41 PM. Reason: phone fingers
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  #11  
Old Posted Apr 19, 2019, 3:35 PM
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they like the nw, who doesnt? the only thing is theres not much jobs here. they probably wont want to go to places where theres a big earthquake. i guess who knows
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  #12  
Old Posted Apr 19, 2019, 6:00 PM
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I don't see immigration slowing down but rather a transfer in regions. Basically more Central America rather than Mexico and India rather than East Asia. Also there are some groups such as Bangladeshis, who like Africans are rather small in numbers but could grow a lot due to chain migration.

Economic prosperity does not necessarily lead to decline. In the case of India as people enter the middle class it becomes easier to immigrate.
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  #13  
Old Posted Apr 19, 2019, 6:01 PM
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Originally Posted by JManc View Post
Birthrates are dropping in the US's fastest growing immigrant groups; Hispanics and east Asians. Even in their home countries. Mexico, Vietnam and China have ageing populations.
China has a low birthrate but the reserves of people are so massive that it doesn't have an impact.

I do think 2nd generation Chinese and Indian Americans could see a decline in birthrates in California but new immigrants will offset that decline.
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  #14  
Old Posted Apr 19, 2019, 6:03 PM
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Originally Posted by Crawford View Post
Actually, they're two sides of the same coin. Canadian immigration streams are largely the same as U.S. immigration streams, and the U.S. is somewhat more of a first choice but also somewhat more difficult to gain entry.

So when U.S. restricts certain groups (or qualifications) they usually end up in Canada. That's why Persians were big in the U.S. in the 70's and then big in Canada immediately thereafter, following U.S. restrictions.

A lot of articles from Neoliberal sources claim that Asian immigrants are going to Canada for tech jobs instead of the US due to a "xenophobic climate" but I am sort of skeptical of that.
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  #15  
Old Posted Apr 19, 2019, 6:53 PM
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The other factor is automation which could favor Asian immigration. Jobs that are done by immigrants from Latin America are more likely to be automated.
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  #16  
Old Posted Apr 19, 2019, 9:41 PM
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A lot of articles from Neoliberal sources claim that Asian immigrants are going to Canada for tech jobs instead of the US due to a "xenophobic climate" but I am sort of skeptical of that.
Perhaps some do, but that sounds more like Canadian melting pot mythmaking. Asians are turning down Silicon Valley jobs because they're scared of bigots in San Jose (a place where Asians are a plurality, and probably soon to be majority?)

I doubt a typical U.S. Asian is exposed to more xenophobia than their Canadian equivalents. And I doubt most immigrants are doing rigorous analyses of immigration options; they're headed to family or jobs and probably couldn't say much about the differences between Topeka and Toronto, Hartford or Hamilton.

They might know the U.S. has more guns, blacks, rich folks, loud folks, warm weather, and that's about it.
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Old Posted Apr 19, 2019, 11:23 PM
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Originally Posted by pdxtex View Post
asian immigration will slow but continue to show gains. economic prosperity in their home countries will continue and asian birth rates just arent that high. this country will be mexico 2.0 in 100 years. which is fine by me.
I spent some time in Mexico and while there are things I like about that country I would never want the US to be Mexico 2.0.

There's tons of crime, violence, poverty, corruption there. Not that the US doesn't have its problems but quality of life is way better overall.
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  #18  
Old Posted Apr 19, 2019, 11:56 PM
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I spent some time in Mexico and while there are things I like about that country I would never want the US to be Mexico 2.0.

There's tons of crime, violence, poverty, corruption there. Not that the US doesn't have its problems but quality of life is way better overall.
No question.
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  #19  
Old Posted Apr 20, 2019, 12:00 AM
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Immigration from Asia will likely slow. I wonder if immigration from Africa picks up.
I thought I read some projections that the black population which has been pretty stable at about 12-14% of the overall U.S. population was projected to start rising to about 17-18+% but I can't seem to find that information. Have you heard/read the same?

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Also likely that climate changes induce migration in the near future. It’s probable the US will get a sizable share of these groups.
Yikes, they better consider Canada or Siberia then.
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  #20  
Old Posted Apr 20, 2019, 2:45 AM
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At some point it will slow. But I believe that the Indian immigration wave will continue for a very long time.

If you go to any suburb in the New York or Philadelphia metro regions, you'll notice that Indians and South Asians are quickly dominating entire towns and regions, displacing formerly white neighborhoods. I've heard lots of contention due to this, as Indians and South Asians are culturally very different than most American born people. It's kind of a culture clash that I don't see resolving any time soon.

This started mainly with Obama, as entire extended families came to the US together. I know more cases than I can count of multiple generations and sides of families, upwards of 10 people living in 3 bedroom apartments and homes.
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