Quote:
Originally Posted by memph
I think he used that 500k figure to show that Toronto hasn't been building much high density like New York was, because when New York was booming it wasn't building Brampton style subdivisions and the recent growth in New York has (obviously) all been infill.
|
Sure but we're talking about different eras. Growth back then and growth in 1980 are going to look very different. The point wasn't what type of built form emerged but that both became major global magnets for investment and immigration. New York grew rapidly for a very long time and Toronto has now seen 4 decades of very rapid population growth ...and for many of the same reasons.
Quote:
Originally Posted by memph
However, the City of Toronto is growing significantly faster than that now. 500k in 30 years is 17k/year. The last 3 years' population estimates (July 2016 to July 2019) are 45k, 77k and 46k respectively. I think the 77k increase from July 2017 to July 2018 was an anomaly but the 45k/year will probably be typical going forward.
|
Yes, I noticed that too. 10 years ago it was puzzling why most of the growth was still heading to the periphery despite urban planning policies encouraging intensification and discouraging sprawl. A re-balancing has now occurred.
Quote:
Originally Posted by memph
The GTA will most likely grow at a fairly predictable and constant rate, since there's little risk of Toronto being displaced from the #1 city in the country for immigrants and with the way the policy around immigration targets works, the immigration rates will be pretty constant. Toronto has also been capturing a pretty constantly high percentage of the GTA's overall growth, and I think that will also stay true going forward with the way Downtown Toronto is dominating job growth, the central city road/highway network being at capacity, the Green Belt, and the GO train network struggling to keep up with demand from the outer suburbs.
I also think new technologies and societal changes aren't going to hurt. If driverless cars end up happening (I'm still skeptical), I think the biggest effect in Toronto will be to eliminate the need for off-street parking for infill projects. In addition to being an extra cost for developers, it's also a significant aesthetic obstacle for small scale infill with a driveway/garage having to take up a high percentage of the street frontage for redevelopments of narrow lots (especially when there aren't alleys, which much of inner Toronto lacks). I think NIMBY resistance will decrease if those aesthetic concerns go away, and overall demand for on-street parking will also likely decrease (losing "their" on-street spot is another concern for NIMBYs).
|
Besides COVID-19, the big question mark for continued rapid growth is housing prices. Last year, KW and London were the 2 fastest growing CMAs in Canada. They have a lot going for them but growth was significantly boosted by priced out Torontonians re-locating there. I don't think many people have noticed because the population increase figures masked how many people Toronto lost to other places in Canada.
Agree about off street parking but on street parking will change too. As the central city intensifies, I suspect many streets will narrow to one lane in each direction. There will be no stopping permitted and obviously no parking. On streets that are 2 lanes in each direction, on street parking will disappear altogether. Minor residential streets may become one way and one lane with parking permitted on one side of the street only. All in all, we're moving to a pedestrian focused downtown. Most downtown people don't drive any way. They walk or bike everywhere. I have a car in underground parking but only take it out once in a blue moon when I'm bored and want to go to Yorkdale, the Bluffs, or some other periphery place.
I'm intrigued as to how Yonge will change once its built out from Queens Quay to Bloor. I'd like to see one lane in each direction, no grade separation between sidewalk and road, and no difference in the paving stones used. They could install bollards that disappear into the ground if the street needs to transform for events like the Gay Pride Parade.