Halifax Retail

[jeddy1989]

Originally Posted by icetea93

Agreed St. John's and Halifax are actually ahead of every major Canadian city in terms of median income except for Ottawa, Calgary and Edmonton (and Saskatoona, Regina and Victoria if you consider them major) and are roughly equal to Hamilton.

I think this will continue to be the case!

I also remember reading somewhere that Halifax has the second youngest population of any major Canadian city in Canada (behind only Calgary). Not sure what the case is in St. John's but that is also a good sign!

http://www.statcan.gc.ca/tables-tabl...il107a-eng.htm

Just look at the increase St. John's has had in the 4 years on that chart .. 16%! in just 4 years, and two more years have past.. I'm telling you lots to come!
So bring on the retail! hahaha
I remember when the age stats came out, I'm not sure where St. John's stands but I know it's below the national average, I just can't remember the numbers.

[icetea93]

Originally Posted by jeddy1989

Just look at the increase St. John's has had in the 4 years on that chart .. 16%! in just 4 years, and two more years have past.. I'm telling you lots to come!

I remember when the age stats came out, I'm not sure where St. John's stands but I know it's below the national average, I just can't remember the numbers.

That 16% is incredible. St. John's now has a slightly higher income than Halifax! Though we have a large population advantage (2x) and a younger population. I think both cities will grow substantially in the future years.

[jeddy1989]

Originally Posted by icetea93

That 16% is incredible. St. John's now has a slightly higher income than Halifax! Though we have a large population advantage (2x) and a younger population. I think both cities will grow substantially in the future years.

You're right on population however accodring to stats can the median age is about the same:
(St. John's Median age being slightly lower than Halifax)

St. John's: 39.4

http://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-re...&GK=CMA&GC=001

Halifax: 39.9

http://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-re...&GK=CMA&GC=205

Hopefully we can both get these numbers down (however congrats to both for being lower than the national median age: 40.6)

[icetea93]

Originally Posted by jeddy1989

You're right on population however accodring to stats can the median age is about the same:
(St. John's Median age being slightly lower than Halifax)

St. John's: 39.4

http://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-re...&GK=CMA&GC=001

Halifax: 39.9

http://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-re...&GK=CMA&GC=205

Hopefully we can both get these numbers down (however congrats to both for being lower than the national median age: 40.6)

Huh I stand corrected, though I still remember reading that we wee second in an age related category... Oh well. I wonder how the unemployment rates compare?

[MonctonRad]

For what it's worth, the median age in Moncton is 40.4 yrs, which is also less than the national average.

In percentage terms, Moncton is the most rapidly growing CMA in the country east of Saskatchewan (9.7% since 2006).

[SignalHillHiker]

Originally Posted by icetea93

Huh I stand corrected, though I still remember reading that we wee second in an age related category... Oh well. I wonder how the unemployment rates compare?

This is freaky. The page I found actually lists the three cities we've been mentioning together, ha!

http://www.statcan.gc.ca/tables-tabl...fss03a-eng.htm

It has us:

Halifax: 5.7%
St. John's: 7.1%
Moncton: 7.2%

(No idea what parts are included in St. John's for this. Must be urban area? Our metro is 198,000, the city is 106,000, but this lists a population of 162,000).

But in August, before the end of some seasonal industries, we were at 5.7% too: http://www.thetelegram.com/Opinion/E...labour-pains/1

But the first link above says it's seasonally adjusted... I assume that means it takes seasonal workers into account?

[jeddy1989]

Originally Posted by SignalHillHiker

This is freaky. The page I found actually lists the three cities we've been mentioning together, ha!

http://www.statcan.gc.ca/tables-tabl...fss03a-eng.htm

It has us:

Halifax: 5.7%
St. John's: 7.1%
Moncton: 7.2%

But in August, before the end of some seasonal industries, we were at 5.7% too: http://www.thetelegram.com/Opinion/E...labour-pains/1

But the first link above says it's seasonally adjusted... I assume that means it takes seasonal workers into account?

That being said there are tonnes of jobs in St. John's that's for sure, Just quite a few seasonal workers who just do not want to have a career during off season (a sad reality) but I mean work is a dime a dozen and they are crying for workers, and there is a large labour shortage. For example I graduated from University in May took a trip to Europe for a month then got a job two weeks after I got home

so it's all good, in all cities

to show what the article signal quoted said:
in August

The unemployment rate in St. John’s then was 5.7 per cent. compared to Calgary’s 5.9 per cent, Vancouver’s 8.4 per cent and Toronto’s 8.5 per cent.
Companies in the capital report having trouble finding employees, the Globe noted, and some students are snapped up straight out of school.

“The situation now is a far cry from September 1984, when the jobless rate peaked at 22.7 per cent,” wrote The Globe’s Oliver Moore and Tavia Grant. “Through much of the 1980s and 1990s, it was above 17 per cent.”

Toronto Star business reporter John Spears visited the capital city last spring.

“Back in 1992,” he wrote, ”when the cod fishery was on its backside — and come to think of it, it still is — the corridors of Atlantic Place, the hulking … brick edifice that looms over Water Street, echoed with emptiness. No more.

“You can pick up your BMW from the dealership out on Kenmount Road, drive it downtown to the hot yoga studio on Duckworth Street and then relax a few doors away with some bubble tea.

“You can listen to business leaders fret about labour shortages — labour shortages! — in Newfoundland.”

so they vary quite a lot

[someone123]

Originally Posted by SignalHillHiker

(No idea what parts are included in St. John's for this. Must be urban area? Our metro is 198,000, the city is 106,000, but this lists a population of 162,000).

They are CMA stats but they only include people who are at least 15 years old.

[icetea93]

Originally Posted by SignalHillHiker

This is freaky. The page I found actually lists the three cities we've been mentioning together, ha!

http://www.statcan.gc.ca/tables-tabl...fss03a-eng.htm

It has us:

Halifax: 5.7%
St. John's: 7.1%
Moncton: 7.2%

(No idea what parts are included in St. John's for this. Must be urban area? Our metro is 198,000, the city is 106,000, but this lists a population of 162,000).

But in August, before the end of some seasonal industries, we were at 5.7% too: http://www.thetelegram.com/Opinion/E...labour-pains/1

But the first link above says it's seasonally adjusted... I assume that means it takes seasonal workers into account?

I think we can conclude that all 3 cities are doing well and will be the engines of Atlantic Canada's future

[icetea93]

Originally Posted by jslath

I always thought it was more like 1/3 Newfoundlanders and 1/3 Cape Bretoners (being from Cape Breton, I'm allowed to make fun of Capers and Newfoundlanders).

On another note: I've been hearing rumours that Sears in the Halifax Shopping Centre may be nearing it's final days. Nordstrom is now looking at up to nine locations (up from the original four) and buying more leases from Sears.

Hudson's Bay is also making a push for more upscale stores. I've been in a few of the newly renovated stores- so much nicer than what I was expecting. Since it closed on Mumford Road, Halifax is without a Hudson's Bay. Halifax Shopping Centre has moved to the more high end shopper, Nordstorm or Hudson's Bay would fit nicely.

Also, Quebec's Simons is finally expanding beyond Quebec- Halifax would be a nice market for them.

I have noticed that Sears in HSC is having a lot of sales currently and will probably continue these sales and may close after Christmas?
I would assume Nordstrom will want in this space as they want in the top malls across the country, and HSC is definitely one of these malls.
Though, they had purchased the Sears spaces from Cadillac Fairview in the already confirmed locations in Canada, and HSC is run by 20 Vic Management, not Cadillac Fairview. I don't suspect this would be a problem, as 20 Vic has proven that it will bring the stores that people want and I'm sure the people would love to have a Nordstrom in Halifax!

I'm still patiently awaiting the day that Dollarama will close in HSC and free up its large space for another new retailer.

Btw, Halifax still has a The Bay store in Mic Mac Mall (in Dartmouth)

Regarding Simons, I'm sure they would very well here as Halifax has always been seen as a more fashion forward city

[cormiermax]

I wonder when the HSC Dollarama lease is up.

[icetea93]

Originally Posted by cormiermax

I wonder when the HSC Dollarama lease is up.

I have no idea, but the space is over 10,000 square feet and I'm sure it would be a nice fit for a mid-sized store. The only thing is the Dollarama space is very odd in that it has a very small store front that is stuffed in the corner between Ben Moss and the massive Victoria's Secret store. Dollarama has a slight slope of probably 20-30 after the store front before you actually get into the store I'm sure they could knock down some walls and make the store front larger if they had to. After all, they added a part to the second floor for Apple.

This PDF shows the floor plan of HSC

http://www.20vic.com/1109pdfs/HALIFA...PING%20CTR.pdf

[statbass]

Originally Posted by SignalHillHiker

Here's the list of stores at Avalon, our largest and most popular mall:

http://www.shopavalonmall.com/store/

I don't know which, if any, of these stores would count as destination ones in the Maritimes.

(EDIT: And, don't forget, we're very independent when it comes to retail. Just because we don't have the same chain as exists on the mainland doesn't mean that niche isn't served here. Our equivalents may even be objectively better. Downtown St. John's has very few national chain stores - most are local. We may not have Moxie's, but we have easily comparable local versions, like Celtic Hearth. And many of the local shops, like Le Boudoir and the Booby Trap - basically our equivalents of Victoria's Secret - have won national and even major international awards. For example, Le Boudoir won in New York as the Best Lingerie Shop in North America: http://www.thetelegram.com/Business/...store-on-top/1).

Not to beat this dead horse but I have to concur with Signal - Downtown St. John's has a bunch of independent retailers that carry major/designer & unique labels: Johnny Ruth, Ballistic, Opal & Onyx, Twisted Sister, & Living Planet just to name a few.

[someone123]

Originally Posted by SignalHillHiker

I imagine IKEA might be a little concerned that most of the economic activity in Atlantic Canada is based in the province from which shoppers would have the most difficult time getting to Halifax. It certainly doesn't make sense according to their policies to open a store in St. John's (they need to maintain exclusivity, it's part of the brand. Though I imagine a furniture retailer like IKEA could do exceptionally well in any Canadian capital) - but, since we're the foundation of the regional boom right now, it may not make sense to open a store in Halifax either.

What does "foundation of the regional boom" even mean?

There is a lot of irrational exuberance in St. John's lately. It has had some good years, but that doesn't mean that other places have been doing badly. I think Newfoundland and New Brunswick still have about the same GDP. Newfoundland is nowhere near the GDP of all the Maritime provinces combined. Many of the predictions for GDP growth in 2012 actually have Newfoundland below Nova Scotia because of declining production in one of the offshore projects. More generally, a lot of excitement seems to come from GDP figures, but GDP isn't necessarily a great indicator of money in the local economy, particularly when you are talking about a small province dominated by some major energy companies that are likely taking profits somewhere else.

At the end of the day with a retailer like IKEA they look at the number of people who can reasonably be expected to visit a store and how much money those shoppers have to spend. As we can see from the statistics, there are about twice as many shoppers in the Halifax area and the incomes around the same so we can expect there to be about twice as much money. The true gap is larger than that because within about an hour of a store in Halifax there would be more population than there is in all of Newfoundland and Labrador. This is why the Halifax area has a wider diversity of retailers than anywhere else in the region.

[SignalHillHiker]

Switched to the St. John's Retail thread, if you wish to follow.

[jeddy1989]

Originally Posted by someone123

What does "foundation of the regional boom" even mean?

There is a lot of irrational exuberance in St. John's lately. It has had some good years, but that doesn't mean that other places have been doing badly. I think Newfoundland and New Brunswick still have about the same GDP. Newfoundland is nowhere near the GDP of all the Maritime provinces combined. Many of the predictions for GDP growth in 2012 actually have Newfoundland below Nova Scotia because of declining production in one of the offshore projects. More generally, a lot of excitement seems to come from GDP figures, but GDP isn't necessarily a great indicator of money in the local economy, particularly when you are talking about a small province dominated by some major energy companies that are likely taking profits somewhere else.

At the end of the day with a retailer like IKEA they look at the number of people who can reasonably be expected to visit a store and how much money those shoppers have to spend. As we can see from the statistics, there are about twice as many shoppers in the Halifax area and the incomes around the same so we can expect there to be about twice as much money. The true gap is larger than that because within about an hour of a store in Halifax there would be more population than there is in all of Newfoundland and Labrador. This is why the Halifax area has a wider diversity of retailers than anywhere else in the region.

It cannot all be going away, we are the only "have province" in well eastern Canada

Which means we do not have the need for equalization payments and do not receive them


just as some background reference:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Equaliz...ents_in_Canada

EDIT:
Also brought to the St. John's Retail thread

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by icetea93

I have noticed that Sears in HSC is having a lot of sales currently and will probably continue these sales and may close after Christmas?
I would assume Nordstrom will want in this space as they want in the top malls across the country, and HSC is definitely one of these malls.
Though, they had purchased the Sears spaces from Cadillac Fairview in the already confirmed locations in Canada, and HSC is run by 20 Vic Management, not Cadillac Fairview. I don't suspect this would be a problem, as 20 Vic has proven that it will bring the stores that people want and I'm sure the people would love to have a Nordstrom in Halifax!

it would be really neat if Nordstrom's came to Halifax. This would definitely fall into the category of a destination store for the Maritimes.

Stupid question - is the Sears store at the old Penhorn Mall location still there? I know that the mall itself is toast, I'm just not sure if the Sears is still there. I haven't been in that section of town for at least 5 years......

[someone123]

Originally Posted by jeddy1989

It cannot all be going away, we are the only "have province" in well eastern Canada

You are sort of arguing against your own point here by pointing out that equalization from Ottawa has been clawed back as royalty resources have increased. In other words, there isn't a dollar-for-dollar relationship between royalties and money in the Newfoundland economy.

The "have" and "have not" terminology is deeply misleading. Equalization payments are not binary, and even if a province receives them they do not necessarily contribute much to the overall bottom line. The size of the payments has also been shrinking lately. Ontario started collecting because the formula was changed from a 5 province average to a 10 province average.

Another factor that many Canadians do not appreciate is that the transfers come from general federal coffers, not the so-called "have" provinces. In other words, provinces like Ontario pay into the pot that is used to fund their own equalization. You can't get an accurate picture of what's going on by looking at the equalization payments in isolation.

[q12]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

it would be really neat if Nordstrom's came to Halifax. This would definitely fall into the category of a destination store for the Maritimes.

Stupid question - is the Sears store at the old Penhorn Mall location still there? I know that the mall itself is toast, I'm just not sure if the Sears is still there. I haven't been in that section of town for at least 5 years......

Sears is still there. Kind of like the standalone Sears that was built in Charlottetown.

[SpongeG]

i can't see nordstrom opening up there, they don't have that many stores in the states in such small markets