Reflecting on the Calgary-Edmonton HSR proposal.
The province would be foolish to not purchase the right-of-way (I suspect they will).
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Right to plan even if projects seem too costly
The Star Phoenix July 14, 2009
Right off the top, the price tag is enough to make one gag.
At the best guess at the top end, if Alberta wants to build an environmentally friendly, high-speed, state-of-the-art train to connect Edmonton to Calgary -- each with a population in excess of one million people -- with a quick stop in Red Deer (90,000), it will cost up to $20 billion to secure the right-of-way, buy the trains and build the link. Even if the province opts for the cheapest solution, one that would have a diesel train chugging along at a respectable 125 km/h, making the 300-kilometre trip in about the same length of time it takes the average driver today, it would cost $3 billion just to get started.
Considering the geographic similarities to Saskatchewan, with its two major cities 250 kilometres apart, it's worth remembering how costly this connection would be.
According to consultants who prepared a report laying out four options for the Alberta government, the cheaper the solution chosen, the less it will be used. Bill Cruikshanks, CEO of Alberta High-Speed Rail, the company that would like to run the trains, says the best option would be to build a $3.5-billion, 300-km/h, electric overhead train.
Consultants estimate half of the 600,000 air travellers and one-third of the 300,000 bus travellers would switch, but only five per cent of the 9.1 million drivers would opt for the high-speed, environmental alternative. It is hard to imagine, however, how a private-sector company could make a profit in such a marketplace.
There may be reasons, other than profit, for the province to consider such a costly piece of infrastructure. Europeans and Asians like high-speed trains to move people efficiently from one place to another, enhancing their productivity and reducing their environmental footprint, compared to commuting by car.
Alberta's two largest cities already constitute a significant investment in human capital. They each have a major university, state-of-the-art health-care facilities, ample cultural amenities, two professional sports teams and industrial clusters that make them the envy of much of the developed world.
In theory, a high-speed link between the two centres could make them even more efficient in terms of their ability to tap into their combined intellectual capacities. Connectivity and innovation, after all, are considered to be the new advantage when it comes to economic growth -- more important that waterways, manufacturing capacity or resources.
But the demographics and geography that assist high-cost, high-speed commuter links in Europe, Asia and even along the Pacific and Atlantic corridors in America don't exist on the Canadian Prairies.
It's not impossible to imagine a scenario where high gas prices, carbon caps, taxes and improved technology could make a $3.5-billion -- or even a $20-billion -- investment in a high-speed train practical, but that scenario is extremely speculative in 2009.
It's worth remembering, too, that if the train gets more cars off the road in order to pump less carbon into the atmosphere, this would require the system to be cheaper and more convenient than taking the car and greener than burning gasoline.
As things now stand, Alberta -- like Saskatchewan -- gets most of its electricity from coal, so to make the environmental argument one would have to include in the cost of the proposal that of green electricity production. A nuclear reactor, which over its life cycle would be the most reliable, economic and green of the options, would add billions to the cost.
Other green energy projects would make the high cost even higher, particularly if they required the kind of additional infrastructure that wind- or solar-generation would demand in order to have the power running at all times.
Saskatchewan would present a different scenario, with alternate advantages and challenges.
On the one hand, Saskatchewan isn't likely for the foreseeable future to have even one city of a million, much less two that would deliver the 10-million passenger trips that now take place between these Albertan cities.
But a high-speed train in Saskatchewan, where Regina and Saskatoon are relatively closer than the Alberta cities, could make the commute less than an hour, giving the province, in effect, the advantages of one large city. This could enhance the cultural and professional sports opportunities for both cities.
And the right-of-way still exists in Saskatchewan -- something the province could work on securing, then leasing back to the users, just in case the day comes when this does make sense.
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