Millennials Continue to Leave Big Cities

[SFBruin]

Originally Posted by ocman

Not worth having 10 different boba shops to choose from.

I wrote something more snarky here before, but I want to say that I couldn't agree more with your point.

[galleyfox]

The article should have gone more in-depth. Last I've heard is that cities are as popular as ever among millennials with college degrees. It's millennials without college degrees moving to the suburbs which is where most jobs that don't require degrees are located. This would be especially true if the city they're working near is expensive or if the city schools are troubled.

[the urban politician]

Originally Posted by galleyfox

The article should have gone more in-depth. Last I've heard is that cities are as popular as ever among millennials with college degrees. It's millennials without college degrees moving to the suburbs which is where most jobs that don't require degrees are located. This would be especially true if the city they're working near is expensive or if the city schools are troubled.

I don't think this is true, for the most part

[liat91]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

Four years ago is roughly when all millennials became the age of majority, and three years ago is when the anti-immigrant mood in the U.S. went into high gear. There are no new millennials to add to cities, unless they come from other countries.

Sure there are. Immigrants mostly go to the suburbs anyway. It’s inflated housing prices that are guiding the flow. There’s a lot of global money out there and a good chunk of it is parking itself in our most desirable metropolitan area real estate. Bitter sweet though.

[the urban politician]

There is indeed an immigrant inversion happening.

I was at Woodfield Mall in Schaumburg, (a forum favorite), and the play area for kids there is like 90% immigrants. Hell, the mall itself is about 60-70% foreign appearing. Go down to Lincoln Park—it’s not even close to that diverse.

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by the urban politician

There is indeed an immigrant inversion happening.

Higher income immigrants, especially Asians, generally prefer McMansion suburbia. Native-born whites of the same income-social strata generally prefer older streetcar suburbs or urban centers.

So, yeah, it makes perfect sense that Woodfield Mall is more diverse than Lincoln-Halstead or Wilmette, in 2019.

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by liat91

Sure there are. Immigrants mostly go to the suburbs anyway. It’s inflated housing prices that are guiding the flow.

No. The immigrants in Woodfield Mall are H-1B visa holders, heavily Asian, and professionals. They're less affected by the current anti-immigrant sentiment. Immigrants in cities tend to be working class, and heavily Hispanic.

Gateway urban Hispanic neighborhoods have been massively affected by the nativist movement. Trump has done nothing to limit H-1B visas, so Indians, in say Schaumburg, are, so far, unaffected.

And the suburban Asian professionals are not deterred by "inflated housing prices". They make lots of money, but they prefer McMansion suburbia, and pay big bucks to be in large homes in the highest performing school districts.

[10023]

This article is stupid.

No one is saying that millennials don’t move to the suburbs. Only that less of them are moving to suburbs than in previous generations.

This trend might even be stronger in Europe, where just today the ECB put out a paper on the need for governments to combat rising house prices in an “era of re-urbanisation”.

At the same time there’s lots of talk of millennials moving to the countryside. I know two couples who, frustrated with what they could (or could not) afford in central London, moved to small market towns outside of the metro area (in Oxfordshire and Wiltshire), respectively. But they basically bought 300+ year old houses in villages, not in the suburbs. NYC seems to have the same anecdotal stories of young people skipping the suburbs and moving to the Hudson Valley.

And both of these things make sense. If more and more people can work from home or telecommute, then that heightens the appeal of the country over the suburbs for those who aren’t city people. At the same time many people live in the city by choice, not because they have to be near work. Suburbs are sort of a worst of both worlds option for many of us.

[the urban politician]

Originally Posted by Crawford

No. The immigrants in Woodfield Mall are H-1B visa holders, heavily Asian, and professionals. They're less affected by the current anti-immigrant sentiment. Immigrants in cities tend to be working class, and heavily Hispanic.

Gateway urban Hispanic neighborhoods have been massively affected by the nativist movement. Trump has done nothing to limit H-1B visas, so Indians, in say Schaumburg, are, so far, unaffected.

And the suburban Asian professionals are not deterred by "inflated housing prices". They make lots of money, but they prefer McMansion suburbia, and pay big bucks to be in large homes in the highest performing school districts.

Probably 30% of the immigrants at the mall are Hispanic
And a disproportionate amount of the growth in downtown Chicago’s population is higher income Asians.
So while your generalizations are holding true, they are breaking down.
Asian immigrants are preferring the burbs, but younger generations are preferring the city.

[Steely Dan]

according to the 2017 ACS, schaumburg is now 60% white, 24% asian, 10% latino, and 4% black.

so it's definitely not the bastion of white bread exurbia it was 40 years ago.

but the built environment of the place still sucks massive donkey balls.

[the urban politician]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

according to the 2017 ACS, schaumburg is now 60% white, 24% asian, 10% latino, and 4% black.

so it's definitely not the bastion of white bread exurbia it was 40 years ago.

but the built environment of the place still sucks massive donkey balls.

It sure does, but I really like Woodfield Mall. I know that's not a popular opinion here, but it just feels good there. Hard to explain.

Malls are dying and suburbia is struggling, but this place is as thriving as ever and is so multicultural. I actually think it's nice

[MonkeyRonin]

Originally Posted by the urban politician

Probably 30% of the immigrants at the mall are Hispanic
And a disproportionate amount of the growth in downtown Chicago’s population is higher income Asians.
So while your generalizations are holding true, they are breaking down.
Asian immigrants are preferring the burbs, but younger generations are preferring the city.

Yeah, the urban vs suburban preference isn't really about white vs non-white so much as it is about native-born vs immigrant. It's long been the typical of the immigrant experience that the newly arrived (of any ethnicity) move to the burbs as soon as they're settled & able to; and then their locally-born/raised children move back into the city.

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by MonkeyRonin

Yeah, the urban vs suburban preference isn't really about white vs non-white so much as it is about native-born vs immigrant. It's long been the typical of the immigrant experience that the newly arrived (of any ethnicity) move to the burbs as soon as they're settled & able to; and then their locally-born/raised children move back into the city.

Right, but in the U.S.-Canadian context, Asians and Hispanics are more likely to be immigrants or children of immigrants, and whites aren't. So ethnic background is kind of a proxy for residential preference.

Also, at least in the U.S. context, I think we're missing the schools angle. U.S. schools are highly variable and high-income Asian immigrants are committed to living in the top school districts. Most of the time, this means sprawl.

[sopas ej]

Originally Posted by the urban politician

There is indeed an immigrant inversion happening.

I was at Woodfield Mall in Schaumburg, (a forum favorite), and the play area for kids there is like 90% immigrants. Hell, the mall itself is about 60-70% foreign appearing. Go down to Lincoln Park—it’s not even close to that diverse.

Is this the same Woodfield Mall that was in the news recently? That was a terrible incident.

[SIGSEGV]

I'm sure you're well aware, but bigger cities do tend to have good public schools if you can get into them. The top 5 Illinois public schools (according to USNews, not a great source, but a source perhaps used by parents) are all in Chicago, as are 7 of the top 10. It looks like the top 10 in NY are all in NYC. Boston Latin School is the best public school in Massachusetts.

[SIGSEGV]

Originally Posted by sopas ej

Is this the same Woodfield Mall that was in the news recently? That was a terrible incident.

We are fortunate in Chicagoland to have but one Woodfield Mall.

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by sopas ej

Is this the same Woodfield Mall that was in the news recently? That was a terrible incident.

yep. one and the same.

with over 2.2M SF, it's the largest mall in chicagoland, and was one of the largest malls in the nation back when it was built in the '70s.

as one of chicagoland's "premiere" malls, it's fared MUCH better than many of the lower tier malls in the area.

[MonkeyRonin]

Originally Posted by Crawford

Right, but in the U.S.-Canadian context, Asians and Hispanics are more likely to be immigrants or children of immigrants, and whites aren't. So ethnic background is kind of a proxy for residential preference.

Sure, but just for arguments' sake immigration status is an even better proxy. Especially as the population of native-born Asians, Africans, Latinos, etc. grows.

To use a Toronto example, there were a few years in the '00s where the white population was actually increasing (percentage-wise) in parts of the inner city for exactly that reason - because the vast majority of Canadian-born aspirational urbanites were white. That's starting to reverse more recently though, as the Canadian-born children of the non-white suburban majority are now reaching adulthood and starting to make the same migration downtown.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by liat91

Sure there are.

Where are new millennials coming from?

Originally Posted by liat91

Immigrants mostly go to the suburbs anyway. It’s inflated housing prices that are guiding the flow. There’s a lot of global money out there and a good chunk of it is parking itself in our most desirable metropolitan area real estate. Bitter sweet though.

I don't agree with you here. Immigrants tend to head for the places with the strongest urban centers. Of all the subgroups living in America, immigrant millennials is the group most biased towards dense urban cities on the coasts.

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by SIGSEGV

I'm sure you're well aware, but bigger cities do tend to have good public schools if you can get into them.

the bolded is the tough part for chicago at the high school level.

we have a very good K-8 CPS neighborhood school that our kids are automatically enrolled in because we're in zone, but what comes after that is a phenomenally tougher gauntlet

as you noted, CPS has a handful of extremely excellent high schools, but as a white upper middle class family, it's gonna be tougher for us to get our two kids into one of them than it will be to get them into a good university. we might just have to bite the bullet and pony up for catholic high school.

i know the "high school issue" has caused many middle class families to move out to the burbs where they don't have to play any games once their kids are high school age.