Canadian Foreign Policy & Affairs II

[casper]

Getting back to Canada - China relations.

Interesting video on the fentanyl and its supply chain into the US. Is it safe to assume the Canadian supply chain mirrors the US to some extent. If so there is a silk road that leads back to China.

Fentanyl is a factor in a number of our domestic issues such as homelessness, drug addiction and lack of labour participation. Maybe it is time for us to have a tougher line on China even if that means going against the trade deal that Harper signed with them.

Interesting video on the problem in the US

• Video Link

[Wigs]

Originally Posted by Acajack

A future where our history books say that Hamas were the good guys now seems far less remote.

Did anyone say that on SSP?
Everyone knows Hamas are terrorists. No one supports the 10/7 slaughter of Israeli civilians.

I don't know how many times I have to repeat myself: Do not confuse support for the plight Palestinian people with support for terrorism

Many of us on SSP care about the plight of the Palestinian people. Not just today, but the long term solution of permanent Peace and a full Palestinian state for 5.3 million people (2.3 million-Gaza, 3 million-West Bank). Without that Israel will never have safety or security. Going on almost 8 decades now.

46 years of Likud as the party in control of Israel, too many years of ultra corrupt Benjamin Netanyahu at the helm have shown that 20th politicians and ideas do not serve Israelis well in 2023. Any false sense of safety and security Israelis felt evaporated on 10/7 and one of the biggest intelligence blunders of this century.

Now under the cover of War, there's violence against Israeli Arabs in Israel, and huge amounts of violence perpetrated by settlers against Palestinians in the West Bank, including pogroms: kicking farmers and shepherds off their multigenerational homeland. There's also the embarrassment of IDF soldiers in the West Bank filming themselves stripping Palestinians naked and humiliating them.
https://www.timesofisrael.com/idf-so...-palestinians/

Some in Israel's legislature, Knesset actively work against fostering relations with Palestinians. In fact the far right parties and their members such as settlers Ben-Gvir and Smotrich cheer on settler violence against Palestinians in the West Bank. How is this helpful?
Smotrich as the Finance Minister even wants to withhold tax revenue to the Palestinian Authority. Says he has "no interest in their existence". Well if you bankrupt and dismantle the Palestinian Authority then you have destabilization in the entire West Bank and the 3 million Palestinians that live there.
https://www.timesofisrael.com/withho...its-existence/

Another politician, Heritage Minister Amichai Eliyahu suggested nuking Gaza. With that deranged statement: Is this Knesset--Israel's democracy, or the Kremlin? Netanyahu doesn't even have the power to remove that lunatic.








Hamas needs to be removed. Israel could use a leadership change and party in power change as well. No party should rule a democracy for 46 years.

[savevp]

There is a fundamental cognitive dissonance in agreeing Hamas must be eliminated but also saying Israel can't fight a war like this (or worse, calling for a ceasefire). Is it ignorance or willful ignorance that causes so many to ignore the fact that Hamas fighters and infrastructure are fully embedded amongst civilians?

I've yet to hear a viable suggestion for how Israel should achieve the war aims everyone supposedly agrees on but also avoid civilian casualties.

I've also not heard a reasonable proposal for Palestinian independence that guarantees Israel's security and that hasn't already been rejected by Palestinians.

[casper]

Originally Posted by savevp

There is a fundamental cognitive dissonance in agreeing Hamas must be eliminated but also saying Israel can't fight a war like this (or worse, calling for a ceasefire). Is it ignorance or willful ignorance that causes so many to ignore the fact that Hamas fighters and infrastructure are fully embedded amongst civilians?

I've yet to hear a viable suggestion for how Israel should achieve the war aims everyone supposedly agrees on but also avoid civilian casualties.

I've also not heard a reasonable proposal for Palestinian independence that guarantees Israel's security and that hasn't already been rejected by Palestinians.

The way wars normally end. At a table signing an agreement. Is it a an unconditional surrender or something negotiated and more balanced is yet to be determined. Wars don't come to an end by killing every last combatant and civilian on the opposing side.

People who are calling for a ceasefire don't view that as the end. They view that as a pause to allow for a dialogue to occur and to address the humanitarian crisis this is causing.

Israel's security is guaranteed by having a stable Palestine government where the local population is content they can live their lives in peace and prosperity and they have opportunities to be successful and safe. Not a significant portion of their population living in refuge camps. How exactly that happens I don't know.

[savevp]

I can't see Hamas signing an agreement whereby their fighters are all killed or imprisoned. The apparent consensus is that Hamas must be eliminated. No way Hamas sign that deal.

Nor will Israel be willing to negotiate with a terrorist organisation who's primary goal is the destruction of Israel.

Clearly there is no way to end the fighting until Hamas no longer exist, and the price is unfortunately going to be killing the civilians who harbour them (willingly or otherwise).

And also, Palestine has never been a stable entity. They have repeatedly elected terrorist organisations when given the chance to elect anyone. The PA doesn't have popular support in the West Bank and certainly won't have it in post-Hamas Gaza. I'm afraid I can't see any palatable solution for Palestinian statehood that both sides would accept, even if the Palestinians finally came to the table in good faith (as would maybe happen at last if the PA saw the chance to cement their power).

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by casper

Israel's security is guaranteed by having a stable Palestine government where the local population is content they can live their lives in peace and prosperity and they have opportunities to be successful and safe. Not a significant portion of their population living in refuge camps. How exactly that happens I don't know.

Ever wonder why Palestinians aren't really welcome in so many Arab states?

1) Jordan. Palestinian nationalist groups launched an insurgency that attempted to overthrow the monarchy and saw the Prime Minister killed.

2) Lebanon. They upset the delicate religious balance there and led to a decades long civil war that completely destabilized the country.

3) Kuwait. They were 18% of the population when Saddam invaded in 1990. They were so supportive of Saddam that the Kuwaitis expelled all their Palestinian refugees after they got their country back.

They have a bad habit of choosing violence and supporting any actor pushing maximalist goals against Israel. Hamas is just the latest. The bordering states are so weary that they're okay with watching Palestinians die in Gaza than risk destabilization from letting Palestinians in.

So honestly, I actually don't see peace happening until external backing for Palestinian terror groups dries up. When Hamas is getting $100M/yr from Iran while Western aid funds all of Palestine's social and health needs, what motivation is there to make peace on their side?

On the Israeli side, they are a tough nut to crack. But the world was able to convince them to leave Gaza. The same can be done to bring them to heel on the West Bank. But that discussion can't even begin until Gaza stops being a Jihadist hub on Israel's doorstep.

[Wigs]

At the very least you need a humanitarian corridor. Even if Hamas or Israel doesn't care the world community cannot let Palestinians starve or thirst to death.

The head of UNRWA (UN Relief Works Agency based in Amman, Jordan for the Middle East) was horrified when he traveled to Gaza recently. Every Palestinian he encountered just kept repeating variations of "we need water, we need bread"

UNRWA had a maximum capacity to help 150,000 and now they are forced to help around 700,000 in Gaza with dwindling supplies.

Hospitals need actual medical supplies. 50,000 women are pregnant and many women need post natal care from the amount of babies already born in this month of war.
Over 1 million Gazans are children.

Christiane Amanpour interviews Commissioner General of UNRWA, Phillippe Lazzarini who recently visited Gaza to assess the situation firsthand
• Video Link

[savevp]

Originally Posted by Wigs

At the very least you need a humanitarian corridor.

Theoretically sound but wouldn't that entail Israel not attacking certain areas of Gaza? Which would then allow Hamas to operate from within them. Hamas have shown no qualms about operating from within hospitals and refugee camps.

Hopefully once Israel has firm control over Gaza City, supplies will be allowed in. Not that it'll help the people who fled to the south.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by casper

The way wars normally end. At a table signing an agreement. Is it a an unconditional surrender or something negotiated and more balanced is yet to be determined. Wars don't come to an end by killing every last combatant and civilian on the opposing side.

Wars also often end with a Victor's peace. We fire bombed Germany's cities. But in the end, it was only their leaders who were tried and it was their territory that was lost. By those standards, Israel has been relatively lenient with the West Bank and Gaza, given that it ended up occupying those territories as a result of Arab aggression that tried to wipe Israel off the map.

Really, some of this should actually be making the population exchange official. Israel took in Jews drum all over the Middle East and Africa. Time for the Arabs to do the same with the Palestinians. At least, naturalize the Palestinians who already live in their countries.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by Wigs

At the very least you need a humanitarian corridor. Even if Hamas or Israel doesn't care the world community cannot let Palestinians starve or thirst to death.

Where would you build a corridor to? Egypt isn't interested. And how would you stop Hamas from simply using that corridor to exfiltrate?

The only way to really end Hamas is a long and brutal urban fight in Gaza City. And this is exactly what Israel is planning with their hammer and anvil positioning of their forces:

https://twitter.com/War_Mapper/statu...LiGFcl0bQ&s=19

They are going to go neighborhood to neighbourhood door to door. Gaza City is going to become Mogadishu. And if you thought casualties from aerial bombing were bad, wait till you see the casualties from scared conscripts trying to clear a building room to room in one of the densest cities anywhere.

Does that suck for people who live there? 100%

Let's hope the rest of Palestine and Gaza absolutely revolt against Hamas and affiliates like PIJ, so that this never has to happen again. Fatah needs to remain resolute and remind the Palestinian people that it is the Jihadists that invited this violence on the Palestinian people.

[logan5]

It is incredibly unfair and unjust to expect Israel's Indigenous population to leave their own land and find somewhere else to live.

We would be shocked in Canada in this modern day if we had the natives penned up somewhere for decades on end, then eventually decided to try and strongarm other countries into taking them away for us.

[casper]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Ever wonder why Palestinians aren't really welcome in so many Arab states?

1) Jordan. Palestinian nationalist groups launched an insurgency that attempted to overthrow the monarchy and saw the Prime Minister killed.

2) Lebanon. They upset the delicate religious balance there and led to a decades long civil war that completely destabilized the country.

3) Kuwait. They were 18% of the population when Saddam invaded in 1990. They were so supportive of Saddam that the Kuwaitis expelled all their Palestinian refugees after they got their country back.

They have a bad habit of choosing violence and supporting any actor pushing maximalist goals against Israel. Hamas is just the latest. The bordering states are so weary that they're okay with watching Palestinians die in Gaza than risk destabilization from letting Palestinians in.

So honestly, I actually don't see peace happening until external backing for Palestinian terror groups dries up. When Hamas is getting $100M/yr from Iran while Western aid funds all of Palestine's social and health needs, what motivation is there to make peace on their side?

On the Israeli side, they are a tough nut to crack. But the world was able to convince them to leave Gaza. The same can be done to bring them to heel on the West Bank. But that discussion can't even begin until Gaza stops being a Jihadist hub on Israel's doorstep.

It comes down to getting the Palestinians to abandon Hamas. How they go to the point where there is a better solution on the table I don't know.

Clearly those countries want to stay out of this. I don't blame them. There is no clear or easy path to a secure resolution. If it was easy it would have been accomplished by now.

I think we are heading to a new world order where Russia, Iran and China are turning out to be the core of a new "block" of countries that will be sanctioned by the west to the point where their on their own with a collection of smaller states like North Korea and Palestine that follow their leads.

The middle east countries you listed (including the successful ones) don't share our western values and likely never will. They are likely to play both sides.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by logan5

It is incredibly unfair and unjust to expect Israel's Indigenous population to leave their own land and find somewhere else to live.

We would be shocked in Canada in this modern day if we had the natives penned up somewhere for decades on end, then eventually decided to try and strongarm other countries into taking them away for us.

It can also be argued that Jews are a people indigenous to the region today known as Israel.

I'd assume most people would know the story, especially since Christmas is now less than 2 months away.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by casper

The way wars normally end. At a table signing an agreement. Is it a an unconditional surrender or something negotiated and more balanced is yet to be determined. Wars don't come to an end by killing every last combatant and civilian on the opposing side.

People who are calling for a ceasefire don't view that as the end. They view that as a pause to allow for a dialogue to occur and to address the humanitarian crisis this is causing.

Israel's security is guaranteed by having a stable Palestine government where the local population is content they can live their lives in peace and prosperity and they have opportunities to be successful and safe. Not a significant portion of their population living in refuge camps. How exactly that happens I don't know.

Are Hamas themselves even calling for a ceasefire? Seems to me that the calls for a ceasefire are coming from Palestinian sympathizers, Hamas sympathizers, anti-Israel people, etc. But not Hamas.

At least Hamas are consistent. They don't want peace. Or at least they don't want any peace that involves some continued existence of Israel.

EDIT: There is also no possibility for a shake-hands-forgive-and-forget armistice on this one. Hamas and Netanyahu won't be shaking hands. Neither side sees the other as a respectable worth adversary. And if we're being honest the only way out of this for the Hamas guys is in a wooden box. The only question is how many Jews they take with them.

[Acajack]

Bernie Sanders has the exact same opinion as me on the ceasefire and he is a unanimously admired good guy on SSP so I must be a good guy too.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by logan5

It is incredibly unfair and unjust to expect Israel's Indigenous population to leave their own land and find somewhere else to live.

We would be shocked in Canada in this modern day if we had the natives penned up somewhere for decades on end, then eventually decided to try and strongarm other countries into taking them away for us.

It's shocking to you. But population exchanges have happened. Greece-Turkey. India-Pakistan. Are the they must prominent ones.

Millions of Palestinians are now 2nd or 3rd generation refugees. Neither they, nor their parents, it or in some cases their grandparents, have actually lived in Palestine or Israel. What's the point of keeping them as refugees and not naturalizing them, beyond just racism and a desire to perpetuate the conflict?

[someone123]

Originally Posted by Acajack

There is also no possibility for a shake-hands-forgive-and-forget armistice on this one. Hamas and Netanyahu won't be shaking hands. Neither side sees the other as a respectable worth adversary. And if we're being honest the only way out of this for the Hamas guys is in a wooden box. The only question is how many Jews they take with them.

I appreciate that people would like there to be peace but I think that for military or political discussion to be meaningful it has to connect to the real state of the world and actions that people or groups can or will take. I don't think calls for a cease-fire (implied that it involves the 2 parties in the conflict) that have no connection to Hamas' stated goals or actions qualify.

There's another layer sometimes like anti-Westernism or anti-Semitism. You see this with people who say the USA should stop making Ukraine and Russia fight while Ukraine and Russia are fighting, aren't negotiating a cease-fire, and no clear path to one is identified. I wonder how much of this is propaganda aimed at low information observers. Often the target of Russian propaganda is the Global South, and they can get traction with arguments that seem strange or false on their face to Westerners.

[casper]

Originally Posted by Acajack

Are Hamas themselves even calling for a ceasefire? Seems to me that the calls for a ceasefire are coming from Palestinian sympathizers, Hamas sympathizers, anti-Israel people, etc. But not Hamas.

At least Hamas are consistent. They don't want peace. Or at least they don't want any peace that involves some continued existence of Israel.

EDIT: There is also no possibility for a shake-hands-forgive-and-forget armistice on this one. Hamas and Netanyahu won't be shaking hands. Neither side sees the other as a respectable worth adversary. And if we're being honest the only way out of this for the Hamas guys is in a wooden box. The only question is how many Jews they take with them.

Humanitarian agencies are the ones calling for a ceasefire. The organisations who access into war zones are protected under various conventions. They are not pro-Hamas or pro-Isreal.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by casper

Humanitarian agencies are the ones calling for a ceasefire. The organisations who access into war zones are protected under various conventions. They are not pro-Hamas or pro-Isreal.

Humanitarian organizations always call for ceasefires.

What I am saying is that there are also other people who are strategically on the Palestinian or Hamas side calling for a ceasefire primarily because that side is at an obvious military disadvantage and is getting pummelled.

So it's to their advantage for the fighting to stop since it hasn't been going their way for three weeks now.

An unconditional ceasefire right now is basically a small w win for Hamas - they maybe get to keep some of the hostages or most of them, and they don't have to pay the ultimate price for the crimes of Oct. 7 which under a scenario could have logically led to the annihilation of the organization.

[Wigs]

If Israel wants to quickly win this war they should be the ones showing Palestinians in Gaza they are better than Hamas.

The current IDF viewpoint of all Gazans are animals won't go over well after the relentless month long bombing campaign and taking out entire family lineages, including journalists, UN workers and other humanitarian staff including Red Crescent ambulance workers.

Americans learned in 2 Wars on Terror to get the local population on your side as much as possible.

A high percentage of Gazans have never previously seen an Israeli and vice versa... That's a problem.

If IDF doesn't try to work with non Hamas Palestinians in Gaza I fear that IDF/Israel under the Netanyahu administration, when all is said and done, seriously runs the risk of ending up creating more terrorists than they had on 10/7. All for naught scenario.