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  #1  
Old Posted Mar 25, 2010, 7:43 PM
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2009 Population Estimates

http://www.census.gov/popest/countie...ST2009-01.html

Since nobody's done this yet on the SA forum:


Cty/2009 est/2008 est/2000 est
Atascosa/44,633/43,925/38,874
Bandera/20,560/20,501/17,811
Bexar/1,651,448/1,621,304/1,397,813
Comal/114,525/110,119/78,748
Guadalupe/121,432/117,341/89,883
Kendall/34,053/32,923/23,965
Medina/44,728/44,228/39,462
Wilson/40,749/40,350/32,706

Total/2,072,749/2,030,691/1,719,262


Apologies that I don't have time to calculate the percentage change or get into demographics. I can tell you that SA is within 10k of Orlando (MSA) and within 19k of Cleveland (MSA), so we may see some moving up in the rankings with the 2010 census.
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  #2  
Old Posted Mar 25, 2010, 7:46 PM
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One other thing. With Travis county now over a million people, Texas has five counties of over one million people. Two with over two million and one with over four million.
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  #3  
Old Posted Mar 25, 2010, 9:24 PM
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a bit fuzzy but you can still make out the numbers.
I put them in order of 2009 est. ranking.
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  #4  
Old Posted Mar 26, 2010, 3:21 AM
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I can see San Antonio being number 23 or 24 within 5 years.
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  #5  
Old Posted Mar 26, 2010, 4:09 AM
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They need to hurry up and add Kerr County to an San Antonio CSA.
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  #6  
Old Posted Mar 26, 2010, 5:19 PM
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Here's Texas stats:
Looks like South Texas (along border) kept up well and even performed better percentage-wise with the larger (top 4) cities.
McAllen had 30% growth, Laredo 25% and Brownsville 18%.
If McAllen keeps it up the pace, it could approach 1mil by 2020.
It'll be interesting to see how they grow in the next 10 years; numbers-wise and the city in general.

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  #7  
Old Posted Mar 27, 2010, 4:17 PM
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Ahhh just think...if they were to combine the Austin & SA metros (3,777,203) then we'd jump up 13 spots and have bigger metro numbers than Seattle and San Diego...and we could get the NFL and more skyscrapers
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  #8  
Old Posted Mar 27, 2010, 4:59 PM
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Originally Posted by ydoc14 View Post
Ahhh just think...if they were to combine the Austin & SA metros (3,777,203) then we'd jump up 13 spots and have bigger metro numbers than Seattle and San Diego...and we could get the NFL and more skyscrapers
That may end up being the case anyway. Eventually I would say.
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  #9  
Old Posted Mar 28, 2010, 5:43 PM
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Originally Posted by ydoc14 View Post
Ahhh just think...if they were to combine the Austin & SA metros (3,777,203) then we'd jump up 13 spots and have bigger metro numbers than Seattle and San Diego...and we could get the NFL and more skyscrapers
At about 80 miles, being an MSA is a bit of a stretch. Perhaps when commuter rail is a reality and we have a bit more interaction between the two, we might be able to swing a CSA.
But if that's the case, based on distance alone, (not the factors, like 25 percent employment transfer within, or general economic dependancy) we would have to combine a few other locations as MSA's as well. These are CSA's but not considered MSA.

LA-LB-SA MSA with Riverside-SB-Ontario MSA (45 miles apart) combined pushes them to almost 18 million.
SF-Oakland-Fremont MSA with SJ-SC MSA (41 miles apart) in combination with a couple other smaller MSA's pushes them to 7.4 mil.
Combining DC-NoVA to Baltimore (42 miles apart) would bring them up to almost 8.4 million.
Keep in mind, Dallas-FW has 35 mile distance.
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  #10  
Old Posted Mar 28, 2010, 6:29 PM
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Originally Posted by miaht82 View Post
a bit fuzzy but you can still make out the numbers.
I put them in order of 2009 est. ranking.
Not sure why SA's MSA isn't recognized as San Antonio-New Braunfels MSA in the illustration above???????
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  #11  
Old Posted Mar 28, 2010, 8:52 PM
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Originally Posted by Schertz1 View Post
I can see San Antonio being number 23 or 24 within 5 years.
If growth continues in every metropolitan area at the exact same pace as the previous 9 years over the next 9 years (an unlikely event), San Antonio will be the 25th largest metropolitan area in 2018. It would have surpassed only three metropolitan areas: Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, and Cleveland. At the same time though, it would have been outgrown by Las Vegas.

Addendum: In my calculations, I consolidated Riverside with L.A. (yielding San Antonio an 'additional' +1 jump).

Poor Pittsburgh, it gets surpassed by no less than NINE metropolitan areas in the space of NINE years! It would get surpassed by Portland, Cincinnati, Sacramento, Orlando, San Antonio, Kansas City, Las Vegas, Charlotte, and Austin.

Last edited by wwmiv; Mar 29, 2010 at 6:33 AM.
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  #12  
Old Posted Mar 29, 2010, 5:31 AM
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Originally Posted by wwmiv View Post
If growth continues in every metropolitan area at the exact same pace as the previous 9 years over the next 9 years (an unlikely event), San Antonio will be the 25th largest metropolitan area in 2018. It would have surpassed only three metropolitan areas: Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, and Cleveland. At the same time though, it would have been outgrown by Las Vegas.

Addendum: In my calculations, I consolidated Riverside with L.A. (yielding San Antonio an 'additional' +1 jump.

Poor Pittsburgh, it gets surpassed by no less than NINE metropolitan areas in the space of NINE years! It would get surpassed by Portland, Cincinnati, Sacramento, Orlando, San Antonio, Kansas City, Las Vegas, Charlotte, and Austin.

It is unlikely Las Vegas will ever see the growth it has become accustom to.
At the same time San Antonio's growth is likely to accelerate.
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  #13  
Old Posted Mar 29, 2010, 6:31 AM
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Did you read what a wrote? Perhaps I should have bolded "an unlikely event". Anyway, even if Vegas sees a slowdown in growth by 5% and San Antonio sees a pick-up of 5%, Vegas will STILL outgrow San Antonio in the next 9 years.
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  #14  
Old Posted Mar 29, 2010, 9:16 PM
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Originally Posted by wwmiv View Post
Did you read what a wrote? Perhaps I should have bolded "an unlikely event". Anyway, even if Vegas sees a slowdown in growth by 5% and San Antonio sees a pick-up of 5%, Vegas will STILL outgrow San Antonio in the next 9 years.
I really do not care what you wrote or what you will most likely write after reading this post. If it is such an unlikely event, why base your assumptions on it? Perhaps you should not have implied Las Vegas would surpass San Antonio within the next nine years. Do you even pay attention to what is happening in Vegas and Orlando? Maybe you should look at Sacramento as well. It is foolish to believe these cities will have growth rates even close to their historical growth rates.
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Old Posted Mar 29, 2010, 10:06 PM
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Originally Posted by Schertz1 View Post
I really do not care what you wrote or what you will most likely write after reading this post. If it is such an unlikely event, why base your assumptions on it? Perhaps you should not have implied Las Vegas would surpass San Antonio within the next nine years. Do you even pay attention to what is happening in Vegas and Orlando? Maybe you should look at Sacramento as well. It is foolish to believe these cities will have growth rates even close to their historical growth rates.
I beg your pardon? I was just gaming out the likelihood of San Antonio actually achieving a 23 or 24 placement... Just a rudimentary thing. You really are getting heated over nothing.




That being said, and since you've directly assaulted me, I'm going to give a rebuttal point by point.

1) When I said unlikely event, it was more directed at the general notion that every city has experienced a slow-down.

2) I did not imply that Las Vegas would pass San Antonio, I said it flat out. Even if Las Vegas sees a 15% slowdown in its growth rate, it will STILL pass San Antonio.

3) Orlando and San Antonio are the same size. Orlando WILL see a slowdown, you are right. However, San Antonio will likely also see a slowdown temporarily which will preclude us outgrowing them in the next few years. I.E. assume we see a slowdown of 5% over the nine years and that Orlando will see a slowdown of 10% over the nine years. Orlando will still be larger.

4) Sacramento is the seat of government of California. The fundamentals are there for it to make a decent recovery. Not amazing, but decent.

5) I'm just going to go ahead for the sake of it and split Riverside from L.A. (really just to piss you off) and voila! San Antonio just dropped a spot. Want to debate the merits of combining Riverside and L.A.? Try me. I'm sure you realize that Riverside and L.A. will eventually be a single metropolitan area (I WAS trying to be generous to San Antonio to, I guess, appease you).

6) You assume that other cities will not make a better recovery than San Antonio. Assume that three to four cities slightly smaller than San Antonio make a better economic recovery, see a pick up in growth, and then outgrow San Antonio. What cities could those possibly be? Austin and Charlotte are wonderful examples.

To conclude, on balance it will probably be shown that San Antonio does NOT achieve a 23 or 24 spot within five years. However, within ten it is likely. Within 15 it is a practical guarantee.
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  #16  
Old Posted Mar 29, 2010, 10:12 PM
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Originally Posted by Schertz1 View Post
I really do not care what you wrote or what you will most likely write after reading this post.
Also, phrases like these are tailor made to bully people into not responding so that you seem like you've won the argument. I'd appreciate it if you wouldn't stoop that low.
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  #17  
Old Posted Mar 29, 2010, 10:33 PM
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Originally Posted by wwmiv View Post

6) You assume that other cities will not make a better recovery than San Antonio. Assume that three to four cities slightly smaller than San Antonio make a better economic recovery, see a pick up in growth, and then outgrow San Antonio. What cities could those possibly be? Austin and Charlotte are wonderful examples.
But you assume that San Antonio just won't grow that much at all period and that it will always be subjected to the population statistics that it is in now. No one knows for sure what will happen in 5 years. Charlotte's gain has already been slipping. In fact, many cities that once gained tremendously aren't gaining as fast anymore.
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Old Posted Mar 29, 2010, 10:50 PM
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But you assume that San Antonio just won't grow that much at all period and that it will always be subjected to the population statistics that it is in now. No one knows for sure what will happen in 5 years. Charlotte's gain has already been slipping. In fact, many cities that once gained tremendously aren't gaining as fast anymore.
What? Either San Antonio won't grow or San Antonio will be "subjected" (your word) to the same population growth (or could accelerate). Look, I really do not believe San Antonio will be 23 or 24 within five years. It isn't going to happen no matter how the myriad cities in our size category perform.
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Old Posted Mar 29, 2010, 10:56 PM
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It's highly unlikely that Vegas, Phoenix, and high performing cities in CA or FL will keep up their pace. Cities in Texas, OK and NC (as they've seemed to be performing better during the recession,) will probably pick up the slack for growth as well as other random cities as its anyones guess as to where the next population surge will happen (my guess is Mid-Atlantic and Utah/Idaho.)
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Last edited by miaht82; Mar 29, 2010 at 11:08 PM.
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Old Posted Mar 29, 2010, 11:02 PM
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Originally Posted by wwmiv View Post
What? Either San Antonio won't grow or San Antonio will be "subjected" (your word) to the same population growth (or could accelerate). Look, I really do not believe San Antonio will be 23 or 24 within five years. It isn't going to happen no matter how the myriad cities in our size category perform.
But the way you make it sound is as if no matter what it will just start to be outgrown by a number of cities. Some cities have already taken a nose dive in population gaining (i.e. Las Vegas) some are just not gaining as much as they had been, but not necessarily struggling with population loss. I just don't think the thought is too ridiculous. Maybe a spot or two up is more reasonable(I'm not expecting 23 or 24 in five years), but I'm not going to say that San Antonio can't accelerate with even more growth than expected in the next few years.
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