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Originally Posted by thoughtcriminal
I doubt it. people are kind of panicking about coronavirus right now but I don't think it will herald an overall long term downturn in markets.
the election - no way that's affecting construction markets now. too many things can happen between now and November, too many variables.
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It has nothing to do with the death rate itself, per se.
It's that massive parts of the economy are at risk due to supply shocks.
About 20% of my company's revenue is generated from products made in China. We are projecting, even if the factories start operating at full capacity soon and the ports re-open (which they have not), that we will run out of this product in April. That is because we can't ship this product air and it must go on a boat, which has a 35 day transit time. (That's just port to port).
So, we have a risk of losing 20% of our revenue for a period of time until we can get replenishment product.
There are thousands of companies managing the same risk right now.
On top of that, the virus itself has not spread as expected, but as it does, there will be a ripple effect in terms of tourism travel etc. Think about what just happened in Italy. Literally, most travel has halted to and from Northern Italy (Lombary, Milan).
These shocks together will have a very real effect on GDP which risks causing a recession. It might be a blip sure, and the markets have probably over corrected, but one could argue they were overly optimistic in spite of luke warm global data as it were.
From my past experience, when people feel the need start explaining all the reasons why we aren't in a bubble, it usually means we are in a bubble.
My gut tells me Philly will be more insulated than other regions in part because what I see in the data in terms of labor force growth. Meaning, there are lots of people moving to Philly and SE PA in general at the moment for some reason and that in and of itself needs to be accomodated, through new construction etc.