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  #241  
Old Posted May 9, 2018, 2:06 PM
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Originally Posted by Mikemike View Post
Those people are certainly there, and some of the "Bozo Eruptions" were actually regressive/hateful. Others were simply impolitic. And then there are socially conservative positions that can be rationally defended, rationally debated... All three may inflame the leftist twitterati who were never going to vote conservative ever, but if they could condemn #1, explain and apologize for #2 and actually engage #3 they could actually get some respect from centrists.
Social policy is a deflection from the biggest issue facing Alberta, which is massively inefficient social services. The Province has some of the most over staffed and over compensated public services in the world and little in terms of tangible benefit. Jason Kenney will likely seek payroll reductions so the public sector unions will attempt to weaponize social policy.
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  #242  
Old Posted May 9, 2018, 2:39 PM
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We probably do have an over-staffed/paid public sector to some degree, but they already are taking wage cuts in real terms. There's room for a bit more but no nearly enough to make up for the actual biggest issue, which is large deficits resulting from overreliance on oil & gas revenues.

What we actually need is ~$5B+ in additional tax revenue, either HST or a return to more progressive income tax rates.
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  #243  
Old Posted May 9, 2018, 4:09 PM
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Social policy is a deflection from the biggest issue facing Alberta, which is massively inefficient social services
It's a distraction, yes, but one that the UCP has brought upon themselves. There is a contingent out there that feels as though social issues are the major issues.

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The Province has some of the most over staffed and over compensated public services in the world and little in terms of tangible benefit
This is simply not true. But you can thank the PC's for whatever you perceive as over staffing and compensation

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Jason Kenney will likely seek payroll reductions so the public sector unions will attempt to weaponize social policy
This is likely true.
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  #244  
Old Posted May 10, 2018, 1:15 AM
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Originally Posted by Mikemike View Post
We probably do have an over-staffed/paid public sector to some degree, but they already are taking wage cuts in real terms. There's room for a bit more but no nearly enough to make up for the actual biggest issue, which is large deficits resulting from overreliance on oil & gas revenues.

What we actually need is ~$5B+ in additional tax revenue, either HST or a return to more progressive income tax rates.
I would welcome a grownup election in Alberta where the central issue was an HST vs drastic cuts to services. We have spent the last 50 years in this province pretending we are fiscally conservative while frittering away a kingdom of oil revenues.
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  #245  
Old Posted May 10, 2018, 1:09 PM
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I would welcome a grownup election in Alberta where the central issue was an HST vs drastic cuts to services. We have spent the last 50 years in this province pretending we are fiscally conservative while frittering away a kingdom of oil revenues.
It would take a PST of 12% top of the 5% GST to overcome AB's current borrowing requirements.

Do you think BC or ON have deficient services? AB could almost balance its budget by cutting spending to BC levels and would enjoy a surplus with drastic cuts to match ON levels.
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  #246  
Old Posted May 10, 2018, 3:27 PM
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I'd rather see the 5% GST become a 10% HST for a $4B increase in revenue, future carbon tax increases dedicated to general revenue(besides the refunded amount) for another $2b.

Then at least we're looking at reductions in service costs (~10% vs. ~20%) that could actually be possible to achieve without either massive service cuts or significant labour conflicts.
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  #247  
Old Posted May 11, 2018, 12:37 AM
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It would take a PST of 12% top of the 5% GST to overcome AB's current borrowing requirements.

Do you think BC or ON have deficient services? AB could almost balance its budget by cutting spending to BC levels and would enjoy a surplus with drastic cuts to match ON levels.
Lets look at this with some actual data:

Alberta GDP 2018 $302.8B
Alberta Gov't Spend 2018 $56.2B
Alberta Gov't Spend as % GDP 18.6%

BC GDP 2018 $240.8B
BC Gov't Spend 2018 $53.6B
BC Gov't Spend as % of GDP 22.3%

Seems to me to match BC government spending levels we would need to increase spending in Alberta.

Given that tax revenues are obviously directly related to the size of an economy, your line of reasoning is not particularly valid.
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  #248  
Old Posted May 11, 2018, 1:00 AM
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Originally Posted by PPAR View Post
Lets look at this with some actual data:

Alberta GDP 2018 $302.8B
Alberta Gov't Spend 2018 $56.2B
Alberta Gov't Spend as % GDP 18.6%

BC GDP 2018 $240.8B
BC Gov't Spend 2018 $53.6B
BC Gov't Spend as % of GDP 22.3%

Seems to me to match BC government spending levels we would need to increase spending in Alberta.

Given that tax revenues are obviously directly related to the size of an economy, your line of reasoning is not particularly valid.
Spending per capita is the relevant measure. Do healthcare care and education cost more for someone who is more productive? Spending as a percentage of GDP is a measure of ability to fund and not funding requirement.

Last edited by Doug; Jul 23, 2018 at 3:48 AM.
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  #249  
Old Posted May 11, 2018, 1:46 PM
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Not really. Should India spend the same per capita as Canada? Why not?
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  #250  
Old Posted May 12, 2018, 1:55 AM
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Not really. Should India spend the same per capita as Canada? Why not?
India cannot spend te same as Canada so the question of should is moot? Should AB spend as little as BC or ON?
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  #251  
Old Posted May 12, 2018, 8:42 PM
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India cannot spend te same as Canada so the question of should is moot? Should AB spend as little as BC or ON?
So how should India decide how much to spend then? It is intellectually lazy just to state “they can’t afford it”. They do have some resources, but how much should be taxed away by government? Shouldn’t that amount be determined by ability to pay? I think society has a right to improved services as it becomes more prosperous, but individuals have a right to retain assets. The balance is what is always a question. This is best framed in terms of total wealth and total government spending, not some arbitrary value based on what happens next door.
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  #252  
Old Posted Jul 13, 2018, 1:38 PM
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ND’s get hammered in by-elections

Not even a poor showing by Rachel’s canonfodder candidates as UCP wins taking 70 and 80 percent of the vote.

https://calgaryherald.com/news/polit...-to-government
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  #253  
Old Posted Jul 13, 2018, 2:16 PM
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No surprise there. The United Regressive Party was expected to win those seats handily. Oilsands & redneck ridings
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  #254  
Old Posted Jul 13, 2018, 3:52 PM
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No surprise there. The United Regressive Party was expected to win those seats handily. Oilsands & redneck ridings
I agree, didn't expect anything different.
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  #255  
Old Posted Jul 13, 2018, 6:12 PM
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Both held previously by Wild Rose members so this vote was status quo for the legislature. I agree, this was expected and is hardly a surprise.
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  #256  
Old Posted Jul 13, 2018, 8:57 PM
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Originally Posted by lubicon View Post
Both held previously by Wild Rose members so this vote was status quo for the legislature. I agree, this was expected and is hardly a surprise.
I guess I will point out the obvious in voting percentage then, you would think the combined UCP would get a lower percentage of the vote than before with some disgruntled PC's bleeding off to the ND's, instead the bleed came from the ND's. If the UCP can hold both the PC and WR vote in other riding the ND's will be wiped out just about everyvhere.

Alberta general election, 2015:

Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Wildrose Brian Jean 2,950 43.85 +3.70
ND Ariana Mancini 2,071 30.79 +22.86
PC Don Scott 1,502 22.33 −26.62

Wildrose Don MacIntyre 7,829 42.68 -3.54
PC Kerry Towle 5,136 28.00 -12.06
ND Patricia Norman 4,244 23.14 +18.47

Alberta provincial by-election, July 12, 2018

United Conservative Laila Goodridge 2,635 65.89 -0.29
New Democratic Jane Stroud 1,181 29.53 -1.25

United Conservative Devin Dreeshen 8,033 81.76 +11.08
New Democratic Nicole Mooney 907 9.23 -13.90
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  #257  
Old Posted Jul 14, 2018, 11:01 PM
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Both held previously by Wild Rose members so this vote was status quo for the legislature. I agree, this was expected and is hardly a surprise.
A by-election in Calgary would have been more telling. The UCP is poised to win big. Sad truth is that beyond Kenny, the roster of candidates is rather poor (still nowhere near as bad as the random NDP candidates that won). The UCP government is bound to be unpopular as it will make the tough spending decisions that the NDP deferred. The UCP will have to at least freeze wages and hiring. I doubt even Kenney is brave enough to roll back wages.
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  #258  
Old Posted Jul 15, 2018, 3:03 AM
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Originally Posted by 240glt View Post
No surprise there. The United Regressive Party was expected to win those seats handily. Oilsands & redneck ridings
Lol... anywhere outside of Edmonton/Calgary city limits is always described as redneck by the Urbaners.
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  #259  
Old Posted Jul 15, 2018, 3:35 AM
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Lol... anywhere outside of Edmonton/Calgary city limits is always described as redneck by the Urbaners.
Anything outside Edmonton is redneck according to the public sector.
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  #260  
Old Posted Jul 16, 2018, 4:48 PM
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^ I’m not convinced that people in urban areas of Alberta are all that different than rural folks in this province.

Most Edmontonians seem folksy and simple and the city is the biggest small town you’ve ever seen. Calgary may be more sophisticated but it’s still not very progressive

We’ll take our fat cat provincial government pension and relocate to BC at the first opportunity
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