Stop with the dreams/conversation of Houston passing 20 million

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by Trae

It's illegal but could there still be ways around it? Maybe it just office rumors and not the truth. Like it's illegal for a company to hire a temp worker without paying the fee, but there are ways around that.

Extremely unlikely. The company would be risking a federal perjury charge if they fabricated salary information on a visa application. On top of that, the savings aren't worth the risk, since it is pretty expensive for companies to file for H1b visas for their employees. Large companies pay somewhere in the ballpark of $10,000 per visa application after you factor in fees for the application and legal.

[craigs]

Originally Posted by Trae

It's illegal but could there still be ways around it? Like it's illegal for a company to hire a temp worker without paying the fee, but there are ways around that. Maybe it was just office rumors I was told and not the truth.

No. Someone who doesn't know anything about what and how Bay Area employers pay H1B visa holders told you something untrue, for whatever reason.

[SIGSEGV]

Originally Posted by Sun Belt

By plummet he means that the immigrant share in the US is near an all-time record high -- closing in on the 1890s.

Yeah but look at that derivative...

[Sun Belt]

Leave it to Crawford to intentionally mislead people on the Internet.

Immigration is not plummeting. Since 1980 the US admitted a population the size of Canada of LEGAL immigrants to the US. A one year outlier, based off a survey does not indicate that immigration rates are plummeting.

We live at a time with a record number of immigrants residing in America and their share in the overall population is at an 100 year high and is forecast to exceed the all-time high since 1850.

E]

In all, about 45 million foreign-born people lived in the United States in 2018. About half of those were citizens, nearly a quarter were undocumented and the remaining quarter were legal residents.

The biggest decline was among people from Latin America who were not United States citizens. The Census Bureau does not designate what portion of noncitizens are in the country illegally

Another decline appears to be happening among students from China. The Associated Press reported this week that American universities are reporting steep declines in Chinese students, which is cutting into tuition revenue. Several universities have reported drops of one-fifth or more this fall, according to the report, which quoted university administrators blaming rising tensions between the two countries.

Man Alive, you mean we can't educate our enemies!? What are our poor universities going to do?

[IrishIllini]

Originally Posted by JManc

And we still welcome these folks with welcome arms. It's the poorer/ unskilled ones we tend to struggle with now.

Those founders were (at some point) poor immigrants themselves or the children of poor and working class immigrants. Immigrants in the 19th and 20th centuries weren’t affluent either. Skills training could be made more accessible to Americans and immigrants.

[SIGSEGV]

Originally Posted by Sun Belt

Leave it to Crawford to intentionally mislead people on the Internet.

Immigration is not plummeting. Since 1980 the US admitted a population the size of Canada of LEGAL immigrants to the US. A one year outlier, based off a survey does not indicate that immigration rates are plummeting.

We live at a time with a record number of immigrants residing in America and their share in the overall population is at an 100 year high and is forecast to exceed the all-time high since 1850.

E]

Man Alive, you mean we can't educate our enemies!? What are our poor universities going to do?

Clearly our high schools are doing a pisspoor job of teaching calculus. Crawford is talking about the rate of immigration, which is related to your curve's derivative, which is approaching zero (obviously death rate contributes too).

[Yuri]

Crawford is just saying immigration is falling year after year, 2019 less than 2018, 2018 less than 2017 and so on. He said nothing about immigration in the 1980’s or 1990’s. What’s so hard to understand?

[chris08876]

The only theoretical way this could become a reality (20 million+) is if the U.S. had no cap on immigration AND WAS welcoming... Just hypothetical, but if we had like a 2 day immigration process, and all of the current applications from every country (some applications have been waiting for 10+ years) were to suddenly be accepted, the U.S. would probally have a population of 3.5 billion in a year.

If such a scenario existed.

Now this is obviously lunacy, but not improbable... to some insane degree.

[Sun Belt]

Originally Posted by SIGSEGV

Clearly our high schools are doing a pisspoor job of teaching calculus. Crawford is talking about the rate of immigration, which is related to your curve's derivative, which is approaching zero (obviously death rate contributes too).

Crawford is talking about 1 year of data, based off of a survey. A survey that does not include undocumented immigrants -- because there is no data on people that don't have documents.

He is then forming a conclusion about long term trends based off of the results of one year of data.

That is similar to somebody saying New York City will be empty in the future because it lost population last year, while ignoring the fact that NYC has gained population since the 2010 census.

[suburbanite]

Except your chart shows declining growth in share since 2000.

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by Sun Belt

Crawford is talking about 1 year of data, based off of a survey. A survey that does not include undocumented immigrants -- because there is no data on people that don't have documents.

He is then forming a conclusion about long term trends based off of the results of one year of data.

No, I'm conveying a consensus of long-term demographic trends based on all available data about said long-term trends, and that data indicate that immigration to U.S. has plummeted in recent years. There have been 20 years of decline.

I'm not sure what your "there's no reliable data on illegals therefore it isn't included" non-sequitur. Of course I'm not including something that doesn't exist. I also don't think you'll find a demographer who would disagree that undocumented immigration has plummeted in recent years.

Originally Posted by Sun Belt

That is similar to somebody saying New York City will be empty in the future because it lost population last year, while ignoring the fact that NYC has gained population since the 2010 census.

No, actually that would be fabricated and irrelevant. There is no Census count showing population loss in NYC in 40 years, and that has nothing whatsoever to do with the factors contributing to the plummet in intl migration to U.S. (greater nativism, low birthrates abroad, and improved economic opportunities elsewhere).

But, yeah, if a decennial Census showed a 70% drop in a city's population, then it would be reasonable to assume that, outside of temporary wartime/famine type factors, said city would be empty or near-empty in the near future.