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  #41  
Old Posted Jan 26, 2020, 4:04 PM
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Fantastic project design wise, though I wish they would improve the frontage/interaction with Cummings. Too bad they don't have the Cyrville frontage to work with as well.
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  #42  
Old Posted Jan 27, 2020, 12:38 AM
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We are looking at 5+years before this is all built up?
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  #43  
Old Posted Jan 27, 2020, 2:34 PM
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It would be nice to see Cyrville as a thriving community. Hopefully this stimulates more "main street" type retail and commercial development.
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  #44  
Old Posted Jan 27, 2020, 5:05 PM
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I'm skeptical there will be enough demand in this area for such a large development - especially with a name like "Place Lux". Maybe I'm wrong...
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  #45  
Old Posted Jan 27, 2020, 5:46 PM
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Originally Posted by acottawa View Post
The National Capital Region added 20k bureaucrats between 2017 and 2019.

https://www.canada.ca/en/treasury-bo...al-region.html

Meanwhile, the mini baby boom of the late 80s and early 90s are in their prime rental years.

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/.../ct006-eng.htm

Both of these factors suggest a temporary surge in demand for rental housing and the demand will probably drop off fairly quickly as the last cohort of millennials start adulting (replaced by the much less populous Generation Z in the rental market) and new hires from the bureaucrat surge start buying homes.
Regardless, current market conditions suggest healthy demand in the short term, hence why builders are building so much right now (again, 2018 and 2019 both seeing a significant increase in construction starts). I do agree that the longer term trends do not point to this being sustained. If anything this could be why there's so much construction activity now, everyone wants in while it's going good.

If we end up with an oversupply that's not a bad thing; it'll help lower rents back down to sane levels.
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  #46  
Old Posted Jan 27, 2020, 6:02 PM
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I like it! Two thumbs up!
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  #47  
Old Posted Jan 27, 2020, 11:31 PM
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Originally Posted by CityTech View Post
Regardless, current market conditions suggest healthy demand in the short term, hence why builders are building so much right now (again, 2018 and 2019 both seeing a significant increase in construction starts). I do agree that the longer term trends do not point to this being sustained. If anything this could be why there's so much construction activity now, everyone wants in while it's going good.

If we end up with an oversupply that's not a bad thing; it'll help lower rents back down to sane levels.
I believe that Ottawa is on the cusp of an immigration explosion that will sustain the market for a very long time.
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  #48  
Old Posted Jan 28, 2020, 7:56 AM
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Originally Posted by CityTech View Post
Regardless, current market conditions suggest healthy demand in the short term, hence why builders are building so much right now (again, 2018 and 2019 both seeing a significant increase in construction starts). I do agree that the longer term trends do not point to this being sustained. If anything this could be why there's so much construction activity now, everyone wants in while it's going good.

If we end up with an oversupply that's not a bad thing; it'll help lower rents back down to sane levels.
When markets correct they usually don't correct to "sane" levels. If you end up with an oversupply of rental housing you get a lot of socio-economic problems. We saw this with St James Town in Toronto, for example.
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  #49  
Old Posted Jan 28, 2020, 8:07 AM
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I believe that Ottawa is on the cusp of an immigration explosion that will sustain the market for a very long time.
What's the mechanism for the immigration explosion? The Liberals have increased immigration targets somewhat compared to what they were under the Tories, but I am unclear how the transition from modest increase to explosion works.

Even if there was some sort of massive increase, it is unclear that this development (or other similar developments) are targeted a new immigrants. Immigrants who arrive with money (or into a high paying job) are usually keen to purchase real estate fairly quickly. Immigrants who arrive with limited resources are unlikely to be able to pay the premium that this development (and other similar developments) are looking for.
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  #50  
Old Posted Jan 28, 2020, 1:08 PM
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What's the mechanism for the immigration explosion? The Liberals have increased immigration targets somewhat compared to what they were under the Tories, but I am unclear how the transition from modest increase to explosion works.

Even if there was some sort of massive increase, it is unclear that this development (or other similar developments) are targeted a new immigrants. Immigrants who arrive with money (or into a high paying job) are usually keen to purchase real estate fairly quickly. Immigrants who arrive with limited resources are unlikely to be able to pay the premium that this development (and other similar developments) are looking for.
I have read a few articles about how Ottawa has been increasingly getting the attention of new immigrants lately. Historically Ottawa has been mostly overlooked but I think that is changing as the city grows and develops more amenities. In fact, right now 26 per cent of our population is foreign born. Toronto is just about 50 per cent, so we have a lot of catching up to do but you can see it on the streets...people are coming. As for the impact on rentals remember there is only one pool of rental stock in the city. As foreign immigrants take the least expensive or most easily available stock, the upwardly mobile will take higher priced stock. A development like this might not be an immigration magnet but it will certainly attract the more financially capable people in the rental market that will have less affordable options because of the constantly increasing immigration to the city.
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  #51  
Old Posted Jan 28, 2020, 2:16 PM
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I have read a few articles about how Ottawa has been increasingly getting the attention of new immigrants lately. Historically Ottawa has been mostly overlooked but I think that is changing as the city grows and develops more amenities. In fact, right now 26 per cent of our population is foreign born. Toronto is just about 50 per cent, so we have a lot of catching up to do but you can see it on the streets...people are coming.
Maybe there is more recent data showing a different trend, but from 2011-2016, 38,000 immigrants settled in Ottawa-Gatineau, out of 1.2 million who settled in Canada during that period. I don't know what the breakdown between Ottawa and Gatineau is, but, maybe 5k per year, spread across the whole city may be a reasonable estimate. It is not insignificant, but for demand for all of these rental projects to be driven by immigration, a very significant proportion would have to want to live in high rise premium rental buildings in the inner suburbs.

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dail.../t001b-eng.htm

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Originally Posted by Harley613 View Post
As for the impact on rentals remember there is only one pool of rental stock in the city. As foreign immigrants take the least expensive or most easily available stock, the upwardly mobile will take higher priced stock. A development like this might not be an immigration magnet but it will certainly attract the more financially capable people in the rental market that will have less affordable options because of the constantly increasing immigration to the city.
But why are you assuming upwardly mobile immigrants want to rent? I think the vast majority of the people you are describing would want to buy a home. If some paradigm shift has occurred I would certainly be interested to know more.
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  #52  
Old Posted Jan 28, 2020, 3:03 PM
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Originally Posted by acottawa View Post
Maybe there is more recent data showing a different trend, but from 2011-2016, 38,000 immigrants settled in Ottawa-Gatineau, out of 1.2 million who settled in Canada during that period. I don't know what the breakdown between Ottawa and Gatineau is, but, maybe 5k per year, spread across the whole city may be a reasonable estimate. It is not insignificant, but for demand for all of these rental projects to be driven by immigration, a very significant proportion would have to want to live in high rise premium rental buildings in the inner suburbs.

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dail.../t001b-eng.htm



But why are you assuming upwardly mobile immigrants want to rent? I think the vast majority of the people you are describing would want to buy a home. If some paradigm shift has occurred I would certainly be interested to know more.
https://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-r...GC=505&TOPIC=7

You can see the slow but certain growth of immigration in Ottawa-Gatineau here. I expect that the numbers will rise as Ottawa is hitting certain milestones like 1,000,000 population, light rail, a notable skyline, etc. These are things that raise the city's profile to foreigners. When I spoke of the upwardly mobile I was referring mostly to Canadian born citizens that are going to be picking their rentals out of the overall pool of rental stock. They will be the majority of people renting in all these new developments. Millennials are increasingly eschewing home ownership in favour of rentals and they are typically settling into their careers at this point and able to afford a 'luxury rental' of this type.
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  #53  
Old Posted Jan 29, 2020, 6:42 AM
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Originally Posted by Harley613 View Post
https://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-r...GC=505&TOPIC=7

You can see the slow but certain growth of immigration in Ottawa-Gatineau here. I expect that the numbers will rise as Ottawa is hitting certain milestones like 1,000,000 population, light rail, a notable skyline, etc. These are things that raise the city's profile to foreigners. When I spoke of the upwardly mobile I was referring mostly to Canadian born citizens that are going to be picking their rentals out of the overall pool of rental stock. They will be the majority of people renting in all these new developments. Millennials are increasingly eschewing home ownership in favour of rentals and they are typically settling into their careers at this point and able to afford a 'luxury rental' of this type.
Thanks for the link. It looks like my guestimate was pretty close (6k rather than the 5k I estimated)

I'm not sure the bolded bit is the case in Ottawa, and I have not seen any statistical or anecdotal evidence to suggest it is. It took millennials longer to reach various life stages then previous generations, but that isn't the same thing. I have yet to meet a well-paid millennial in Ottawa who was planning to be a lifelong tenant. And even if they are, this does not seem like the industrial inner suburbs would be particularly appealing. The oldest millennials turn 40 this year.
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  #54  
Old Posted Jan 29, 2020, 1:47 PM
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Thanks for the link. It looks like my guestimate was pretty close (6k rather than the 5k I estimated)

I'm not sure the bolded bit is the case in Ottawa, and I have not seen any statistical or anecdotal evidence to suggest it is. It took millennials longer to reach various life stages then previous generations, but that isn't the same thing. I have yet to meet a well-paid millennial in Ottawa who was planning to be a lifelong tenant. And even if they are, this does not seem like the industrial inner suburbs would be particularly appealing. The oldest millennials turn 40 this year.
I'm 39 turning 40 this year, which is by most scales considered the youngest age group of Gen X and more rarely the oldest group of Millennial. The majority of the group of friends I grew up with live in condos, most of them renting. A large minority have families and own houses in the burbs. I have old friends in new condo developments all over the city.
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  #55  
Old Posted Jul 9, 2020, 2:12 PM
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Another development approved. No debate. Sorely needed TOD for the area.
Quote:
Kate Porter
@KatePorterCBC


Planning committee OKs three high-rise apartment buildings - 25, 27 and 36 storeys - plus an eight-storey hotel at Ogilvie and Cummings near Cyrville LRT. No discussion, just approved.

That area around Cyrville LRT is not very dense, given it's near transit.

9:47 AM · Jul 9, 2020·Twitter Web App
https://twitter.com/KatePorterCBC/st...23333774753793
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  #56  
Old Posted Jul 23, 2020, 9:14 PM
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  #57  
Old Posted Jul 23, 2020, 9:32 PM
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Developers aim to revitalize Cyrville area with 1.3M-square-foot hotel and apartment complex

By: David Sali, OBJ
Published: Jul 23, 2020 4:32pm EDT




A group of developers is hoping its plan to build a 1.3-million-square-foot complex of apartment units and hotel suites a stone’s throw from the Cyrville LRT station will help breathe new life into a neighbourhood that one of the project’s backers calls a “forgotten pocket” of the city.

Ottawa city council gave the green light earlier this month to the proposal that would see three highrises and a hotel constructed on a vacant 3.8-acre parcel of land south of Ogilvie Road and just east of Cyrville Road.

The mixed-use project is expected to include three towers of 25, 27 and 36 storeys featuring a total of about 850 rental apartment units as well as an eight-storey hotel with 175 suites catering to extended-stay guests.

The three developers behind the project ​– Ottawa native Denis Archambault and the Quebec City-based father-and-son tandem of Pierre and Francois Moffet – hope to start construction next spring, with a targeted completion date in 2023.

Archambault and his partners bought the property – which was previously unoccupied except for a bungalow that was torn down three years ago – back in 2007. Eight years ago, the veteran developers proposed a plan to erect 85 townhomes on the site, but that proposal was shelved after the landowners and the city agreed the prime parcel of real estate just 400 metres from the future Cyville LRT station would be better suited to more intensification.

“It was a long process because of the size of the property and the size of the development,” says Archambault, who is also a partner in the Heafey Group, a Gatineau-based real estate development firm. “But we weren’t fighting city hall by any means. The city was quite on board (with) having a lot of density in that area.”

While the proposed apartment towers will dwarf most other buildings in the area, a city staff report says few residents objected to the proposal. Archambault says the trend toward mixed-use development near transit nodes across the city meant the area was ready for a project of this kind.

RioCan and partner Killam Apartment REIT, for example, are putting the finishing touches on a second apartment highrise one LRT stop to the east near Blair Station. Two stops to the west, meanwhile, Ottawa’s Colonnade BridgePort is partnering with a Toronto-based group on plans to build a mixed-use “urban village” near the Via Rail station, while the federal government is looking for a private-sector partner to develop residential units, parks and shops as well as a major new office complex just south of the nearby St. Laurent Shopping Centre.

Archambault says there’s no reason why the area surrounding Cyrville Station can’t also be a bustling hub of new intensification projects.

He concedes he’s still a bit puzzled why so much of the neighbourhood has been left untouched by commercial builders. He says he hopes the new hotel and apartment complex, dubbed LUX Place, “will spur on development in that area and that whole triangle (bordered by Ogilvie and Cyrville roads and Cummings Avenue) will come back to life. It’s just strange that it’s been kind of overlooked.”

Emily McClelland, a commercial real estate adviser at Colliers International, agrees the project could be a catalyst for a new wave of construction projects.

“I think it’s just going to kickstart more nearby development,” says McClelland, who has lived in the neighbourhood for two years. “There is so much potential. Cyrville Station is right there. I think we need to start looking at these east-end (transit) stations and start to focus more development out this way.”

McClelland says once more residents and hotel guests cluster near Cyrville Station, other businesses such as restaurants and food stores will inevitably follow.

“People are going to want more options and more trendy options,” she explains. “If you drive around that area, basically all you see is gas stations. It’s not very attractive. It needs some love, so to speak.”

Archambault says the developers have been approached by “all the major (hotel) brands” but haven’t decided on an affiliation yet, adding he thinks the extended-stay format will be popular with out-of-town government workers from agencies such as CSIS, CSE and the National Research Council.

Despite being so close to public transit, the project will have plenty of parking – a five-floor underground parking garage will have space for 990 vehicles, with 270 spaces reserved for hotel guests and the remaining 720 for residents and visitors. But Archambault says he believes the site’s proximity to light rail will attract younger tenants who’ve decided that owning a vehicle is no longer a prerequisite for living outside the downtown core.

“Living without the necessity of a car when you're on the LRT line will create demand for rental housing in that area,” he says. “Even if (overall rental demand) does soften down the road, whatever’s on the line tends to be fully absorbed quite quickly.”

McClelland agrees, noting the COVID-19 lockdown has proven we can work effectively from almost anywhere and it’s no longer essential to live near your office if you don’t have a car.

“We're going to see more people working from home,” she says. “They’re not going to be opposed to living a little bit farther from downtown.”

With phase two of the Confederation Line now under way, Archambault says he expects to see more cranes popping up around LRT stops for years to come.

“You’re going to have high-density nodes around all the stations,” he says. “That’s part of the growing-up of the city.”

https://www.obj.ca/article/real-esta...-and-apartment
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  #58  
Old Posted Jul 23, 2020, 9:38 PM
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Transit-driven developments you love to see it.
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  #59  
Old Posted Jul 24, 2020, 12:58 PM
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Now THIS is an amazing project. This is the kind of project one would see along the Skytrain Line in Vancouver, creating skylines outside of the traditional downtown areas.

Glad to see that the hotel portion is still in the works even with Covid, though extended stay might attract fewer transit riders than a standard short stay hotel; tourists will take transit from the hotel to the city everyday, maybe multiple times a day, but a long stay business traveler might rent a car or bring their own since many of the federal departments quoted are not transit oriented. Also, 270 parking spots for a 150 room hotel?
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  #60  
Old Posted Jul 27, 2020, 11:33 AM
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I live around here. The project seems a bit too big for the area. The apartment building across the street is eight storeys. Kinda sad that more mid-sized developments aren't happening.

And the hotel seems out of place. I would think the hotel makes more sense at Blair. Nobody staying at this hotel is going to walk or use transit. Especially to CSIS, CSE or NRC.

Glad to see some development though. Sad to see Claude's chip wagon and fruit stand go. I wonder how the power lines in the area will be dealt with.
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