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  #1  
Old Posted Sep 27, 2019, 4:03 PM
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Millennials Continue to Leave Big Cities

Millennials Continue to Leave Big Cities

Census figures show smaller drop in young urban residents than previous years, but many still leaving for cheaper housing, better schools

https://www.wsj.com/articles/millenn...es-11569470460

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Large U.S. cities lost tens of thousands of millennial and younger Gen X residents last year, according to Census figures released Thursday that offer fresh signs of cooling urban growth.

Cities with more than a half million people collectively lost almost 27,000 residents age 25 to 39 in 2018, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis of the figures. It was the fourth consecutive year that big cities saw this population of young adults shrink. New York, Chicago, Houston, San Francisco, Las Vegas, Washington and Portland, Ore., were among those that lost large numbers of residents in this age group.

The 2018 drop was driven by a fall in the number of urban residents between 35 and 39 years old. While the number of adults younger than that rose in big cities, those gains have tapered off in recent years.

Separate Census figures show the majority of people in these age groups who leave cities move to nearby suburbs or the suburbs of other metro areas.

City officials say that high housing costs and poor schools are main reasons that people are leaving. Although millennials—the cohort born between 1981 and 1996—are marrying and having children at lower rates than previous generations, those who do are following in their footsteps and often settling down in suburbs.
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  #2  
Old Posted Sep 27, 2019, 4:13 PM
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great, so now they're killing cities too.

god, is there anything they won't kill?

thanks, millennials.


worst. generation. ever.


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Last edited by Steely Dan; Sep 27, 2019 at 4:36 PM.
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  #3  
Old Posted Sep 27, 2019, 4:31 PM
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As a Millennial (some studies consider me Gen Z, depending on what they consider 1995 to be), you couldn't pay me enough money to move to the suburbs. I'm currently living in Philadelphia and enjoying every moment of it: I live in a luxury apartment with a full view of the Center City skyline, numerous bars and restaurants are nearby, I have four full-service supermarkets within walking distance from me, and I am able to successfully live car-free. I can't imagine giving all of that up, even when kids become part of the equation.

While I can't guarantee that I'll be in Philly forever (I'm a lifer who LOVES my city, but my girl may need to pursue her Master's in another city), I can guarantee that my girl and I will be looking to live in a major city for the long-term.

Also, writing about what Millennials are doing is so 2005. Most Millennials are in their 30s now, and the younger ones--such as my girlfriend and I--are cusp babies who could be considered either Millennials or Gen Z. We're the ones who are going to jump in and continue the movement that the older Millennials started.
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  #4  
Old Posted Sep 27, 2019, 4:32 PM
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And how many Gen Z residents did they gain in their place?

Who cares about the population fluctuations of a particular randomly defined generational cohort?
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  #5  
Old Posted Sep 27, 2019, 4:39 PM
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does this merely have something to do with dips and rises in the birth patterns of these generations?

a lot of people who move to cities, it isnt really for them. meaning, for them for life. they just connect and starter family there, then move out to the burbs. same as its ever been really.
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  #6  
Old Posted Sep 27, 2019, 4:42 PM
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Millennials are essentially the child-bearing cohort now. Why would it be surprising that the child-bearing cohort is more likely to move to places more centered around the child-rearing phase?

Has there ever, in the history of modern U.S., been a phase when the child-bearing cohort moved from suburbs to cities? I doubt it. This is the phase when households need the most space for the least money.
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Old Posted Sep 27, 2019, 4:48 PM
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Four years ago is roughly when all millennials became the age of majority, and three years ago is when the anti-immigrant mood in the U.S. went into high gear. There are no new millennials to add to cities, unless they come from other countries.
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  #8  
Old Posted Sep 27, 2019, 5:15 PM
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No I don’t. Never will.


I would consider buying a place in the burbs to store visiting family, but I would never live out there.


City raised children are more intelligent and progressive. It’s just better.
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  #9  
Old Posted Sep 27, 2019, 5:38 PM
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I don't understand these articles. Was there some assumption that every millenial that ever moved into a city would stay forever in the city? It's absurd. Millenials are now early 20s to late 30s - this is all normal life migratory patterns.

Cities will only have a problem if the generations after millennials eschew them - and I don't see that happening any time soon.
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  #10  
Old Posted Sep 27, 2019, 5:51 PM
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For some the city is "a phase of life".

For others the city is "a way of life".

Each generation produces plenty of both.

Why would millennials be any different?
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  #11  
Old Posted Sep 27, 2019, 6:26 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Steely Dan View Post
For some the city is "a phase of life".

For others the city is "a way of life".

Each generation produces plenty of both.

Why would millennials be any different?
I totally agree. To your last question - there was a rash of "Millennials are flocking to the City" articles 10 years ago and there was a decent amount of uncertainty as to how all this could/would affect the suburbs (WSJ's readership) and I look at these articles as social reassurances: "See the suburbs are fine"

I would also add- I think Millennials are somewhat different too - I bet a much higher % of millenials are choosing to raise children in the cities (still just a fraction of the overall millenial population) vs. previous generations.
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  #12  
Old Posted Sep 27, 2019, 6:43 PM
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Good...and take your avocado toast with you.
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  #13  
Old Posted Sep 27, 2019, 6:58 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Londonee View Post
I totally agree. To your last question - there was a rash of "Millennials are flocking to the City" articles 10 years ago and there was a decent amount of uncertainty as to how all this could/would affect the suburbs (WSJ's readership) and I look at these articles as social reassurances: "See the suburbs are fine"

I would also add- I think Millennials are somewhat different too - I bet a much higher % of millenials are choosing to raise children in the cities (still just a fraction of the overall millenial population) vs. previous generations.
I'm not totally convinced there is a mass movement of millennials to the burbs. The drops could also be a factor of stricter immigration, or a decline in desire to relocate to the U.S. by foreigners. People think white American young professional when they see "millennial", but that could miss immigrants of a certain age that are moving to other parts of the world (or returning home). The big expensive cities are more dependent on foreign-born populations to grow.
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Old Posted Sep 27, 2019, 7:02 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by iheartthed View Post
I'm not totally convinced there is a mass movement of millennials to the burbs. The drops could also be a factor of stricter immigration, or a decline in desire to relocate to the U.S. by foreigners. People think white American young professional when they see "millennial", but that could miss immigrants of a certain age that are moving to other parts of the world (or returning home). The big expensive cities are more dependent on foreign-born populations to grow.
I don't think mass exodus is the right term either.

I'm making these numbers up - but the trend over the years seems to be:

5% of Boomers raised children in the city, 10% of Gen Xers, and 25% of Millenials. So while, on the whole, the majority of Millenials are raising kids in the suburbs - it's still a 5 fold increase from a few decades ago which is driving significant change in cities. This, at least, seems to be the case on the East Coast.
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Old Posted Sep 27, 2019, 7:14 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Londonee View Post
I don't think mass exodus is the right term either.

I'm making these numbers up - but the trend over the years seems to be:

5% of Boomers raised children in the city, 10% of Gen Xers, and 25% of Millenials. So while, on the whole, the majority of Millenials are raising kids in the suburbs - it's still a 5 fold increase from a few decades ago which is driving significant change in cities.
Yeah, and Boomers probably have the lowest percentage of any modern generation. I think this story would be more interesting if it was somehow shown that Millennials are moving out of the big cities at the same rates of their predecessors, which I doubt. From my anecdotal experience, there wasn't really even a massive flow of Gen-Xers to the burbs, either. The biggest flows were Silent Generation and Baby Boomers.
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Old Posted Sep 27, 2019, 7:22 PM
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When X'ers were starting out..mid 80's through the 90's, cities weren't as desirable yet. Gentrification and trendiness of urban living was in its infancy by the mid 90's.
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Old Posted Sep 27, 2019, 7:40 PM
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One aspect we haven't discussed is these numbers are inclusive of everyone in that age range.

When we talk about millennials gentrifying, we're talking about a certain kind of millennial.

Cities losing a large number of working-class black/brown millennials still fit in with the overall "rise of the cities" narrative. Particularly because you can argue that the success of urban cores (which have brought up housing prices) along with the decline of inner-ring suburbia has opened up a lot of new opportunities for these folks in terms of housing.
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  #18  
Old Posted Sep 27, 2019, 7:56 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pj3000 View Post
Millennials Continue to Leave Big Cities

Census figures show smaller drop in young urban residents than previous years, but many still leaving for cheaper housing, better schools

https://www.wsj.com/articles/millenn...es-11569470460
Millennials are transitioning out of "young people" and into "middle aged"

They are the ones having kids and raising families now, the oldest millennial is about to turn 39.

This pattern change isnt surprising at all.
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  #19  
Old Posted Sep 27, 2019, 8:57 PM
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Funny how some of you guys are trying to deny that this is happening. As a millennial myself, I’m not phased by this. Until certain top cities like NYC, SF, LA, Boston, and others are able to advance their infrastructure to accommodate more people (including new city-dwelling millennials who aren’t caring about having kids yet), their populations should decrease or remain stagnant for a while.
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Old Posted Sep 27, 2019, 9:14 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JManc View Post
When X'ers were starting out..mid 80's through the 90's, cities weren't as desirable yet. Gentrification and trendiness of urban living was in its infancy by the mid 90's.
Not sure if I fully agree with you; those early 80s Yuppies were already into urban living... YUPpies were Young Urban Professionals after all. And then there were the artist-types that were moving into warehouses and industrial sections of cities in the early 80s; that's how the Arts District was formed in LA. So I think by the late 1970s/early 1980s, younger people were already starting to reject the boring cookie-cutter suburbs and mall-ification that the Baby Boomers had embraced.

I'm a Gen-Xer (born in 1970), and even when I was a teen, my friends and I talked about leaving the goddamn suburbs and moving to the big city... but at the time for me, that meant an apartment or bungalow in or near West Hollywood. Maybe my generation was split between liking the suburbs and liking the city. I definitely wanted to get out of postwar-era suburbia.
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