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[buzzg]

Curious on everyone's thoughts, HYPOTHETICALLY on the effect of possibly closing down Hargrave between Graham and Portage, for a possible concourse/building expansion of MTS Centre in the future. Now I know it'd require probably allowing vehicles to tun onto Graham for a block, or also closing it to St. Mary, but just a thought. I don't think in terms of traffic flow it would be that much of a loss, but obviously business/parkade access would be the big question mark.

[esquire]

Originally Posted by buzzg

Curious on everyone's thoughts, HYPOTHETICALLY on the effect of possibly closing down Hargrave between Graham and Portage, for a possible concourse/building expansion of MTS Centre in the future. Now I know it'd require probably allowing vehicles to tun onto Graham for a block, or also closing it to St. Mary, but just a thought. I don't think in terms of traffic flow it would be that much of a loss, but obviously business/parkade access would be the big question mark.

It would be a traffic flow problem for sure. Hargrave is not a major commuting route but it is a significant one, and putting traffic on Graham will gum things up both for weekday commutes and MTS Centre events.

I suppose it could be done, but it would be quite an inconvenience IMO.

[cllew]

Originally Posted by buzzg

Curious on everyone's thoughts, HYPOTHETICALLY on the effect of possibly closing down Hargrave between Graham and Portage, for a possible concourse/building expansion of MTS Centre in the future. Now I know it'd require probably allowing vehicles to tun onto Graham for a block, or also closing it to St. Mary, but just a thought. I don't think in terms of traffic flow it would be that much of a loss, but obviously business/parkade access would be the big question mark.

How would traffic get in and out of the City Place lot on the west side of that block? MPI just spend a pile of money to rehab the concrete in that parkaid to keep it from falling down over the next 25-50 years, so I don't think they would want to see the street close down.

[oftheMoon]

Originally Posted by cllew

How would traffic get in and out of the City Place lot on the west side of that block? MPI just spend a pile of money to rehab the concrete in that parkaid to keep it from falling down over the next 25-50 years, so I don't think they would want to see the street close down.

Any chance they could create a new entrance/exit from that lot onto Carlton to the west of the laneway to the north?

[cllew]

Originally Posted by oftheMoon

Any chance they could create a new entrance/exit from that lot onto Carlton to the west of the laneway to the north?

only by taking it down and rebuilding it as a new building. the floors are sloped towards Hargrave.

[Wolf13]

Originally Posted by Cyro

They feel taking the risk could be profitable for them, regardless if there is an overabundance of space on the market. I really don't think they're to worried about what happens to other properties and the tenants that may vacate them and head over to the space they make available.

Of course they feel it would be profitable, but it may not be wise. But I don't know who they're dealing with either... I got some hunches, however.

Then again, who know what their long term development plans are... aside from one big project here or there, they remaining deals might be smaller? In which case, they may be happy to deal with a longer lease up period. Obviously they aren't worried about competitors, nor should they be... they simply are charging a lot more rent than the next highest charging landlords.

I'm all in favour for that... Winnipeg needs less rent cheapskates, and that can help shift the thinking of national companies looking for space. But when the city already has a vacancy issue at a much lower pricepoint, it begs the question. Perhaps it's a move TNS can pull off, because they are (aside from this job) probably a lower volume developer. Developers/owners with more on the go wouldn't risk such vacancy and thinner short/medium term profits.

Theoretically.

[buzzg]

It'll be interesting to see if anything happens with the surface lot at Donald and Ellice now. It's part of the SHED TIF zone, so it's got to be a fairly enticing spot to some developers, maybe TN in the future. Having the Alt next door definitely would help ease some of the possible wariness of that corner. Although that former Fed building next door to the Alt is in dire need of something — anything — first.

[GarryEllice]

Originally Posted by buzzg

It'll be interesting to see if anything happens with the surface lot at Donald and Ellice now.

Ah, the "Donell Street Parking" (seriously, that's what the signs on it say!)

[buzzg]

Originally Posted by GarryEllice

Ah, the "Donell Street Parking" (seriously, that's what the signs on it say!)

It's actually just "Donnell Parking" – thats the name of the company. But, it is funny I haven't seen any other Donnell lots lol. Another funny thing about that parking lot is the extra little sign that's on Donald that has said "THIS SIGN FOR RENT" for years and years actually got rented last week. It's some terrible looking and for a decking and landscape company or something.

[GarryEllice]

Originally Posted by buzzg

It's actually just "Donnell Parking" – thats the name of the company.

This image disagrees with you! (The other sign on the property does just say "Donell parking" though.)

[Cyro]

Originally Posted by Wolf13

Of course they feel it would be profitable, but it may not be wise. But I don't know who they're dealing with either... I got some hunches, however.

Then again, who know what their long term development plans are... aside from one big project here or there, they remaining deals might be smaller? In which case, they may be happy to deal with a longer lease up period. Obviously they aren't worried about competitors, nor should they be... they simply are charging a lot more rent than the next highest charging landlords.

I'm all in favour for that... Winnipeg needs less rent cheapskates, and that can help shift the thinking of national companies looking for space. But when the city already has a vacancy issue at a much lower pricepoint, it begs the question. Perhaps it's a move TNS can pull off, because they are (aside from this job) probably a lower volume developer. Developers/owners with more on the go wouldn't risk such vacancy and thinner short/medium term profits.

Theoretically.

Yes, theoretically, hypothetically in our opions...lol..

They've shown a great deal of initiative, with CentrePoint, office/residential, their stake in a major Sports franchise, it's building and surroundings, This major dev.(TN Square), the Burt? Who knows what these fellows are really up to in the long term..

[buzzg]

Originally Posted by GarryEllice

This image disagrees with you! (The other sign on the property does just say "Donell parking" though.)

Mine's bigger. I win.

https://www.google.ca/maps/@49.89491...7i13312!8i6656

[Wolf13]

Originally Posted by Cyro

Yes, theoretically, hypothetically in our opions...lol..

They've shown a great deal of initiative, with CentrePoint, office/residential, their stake in a major Sports franchise, it's building and surroundings, This major dev.(TN Square), the Burt? Who knows what these fellows are really up to in the long term..

We're speculating, so yes, that's all we got for now lol.

It's hard to predict their next move, and ultimately their bravado has been well rewarded so far. However, let's put it this way... in poker and blackjack, based on the cards handed to you and dealt onto the table, there is what "the book" says. Or fundamentals of real estate in this case.

MTS centre and the Burt are brilliant moves within, albeit it towards the fringes of "the book". CV certainly helped, but that's part of the development equation so good on them.

The Thrashers/Jets acquisition (and Thomson partnership) is damn brilliant. Again, still within the book but a very shrewd, clever move... but those are entertainment-based moves, tying into their bread and butter. There weren't many questionable variables, other than if the NHL would allow the move (slightly underized Arena), but the fundamentals were there. HUNGRY hockey fans (a major question mark in a lot of NHL cities), downtown location with winter access, MONEY (thank you Thomson), and a PLAN (combined with the experience oif a WELL run Moose organization).

Centrepoint was a little outside the book in my opinion, but was brought back in with cooperation with CV and a big financial backer w/ real estate experience in Artis. Even still, its success was contingent on a lot of atypical factors:
1) Cheap land prices due to location. Smart on price, risky location.
2) Hotel would be helped by concerts/Jets... true, but very speculative... so far we're told the Hotel is rarely as occupied as Hotels need to be (Hotel in TNS a much better location with Arena AND Convention centre location, plus provides a clear and superior alternative to existing hotels there).
3) The FIRST new downtown project, with no competition, negating its location problem somewhat.

Some fundamental qualities included:

1) large anchor tenant with stantec. Rock solid move. A cornerstone to the project's success.
4) Strong partnerships. Without the City and without Artis money, this likely wouldn't have made it.

Side note: Had SkyCity started presales when Glasshouse did, Glasshouse wouldn't exist. On location and price alone. SkyCity has managed a similar price point with more amenities and infinitely better location (due to higher density). The fact that Glasshouse has sold 170 or so of its 200 units (wild guess) makes SkyCity a speculative project because it's simply late to a low-demand party. When it comes to condos in Downtown Winnipeg, Ricky Bobby's quip might hold true: "If you're not first, you're last".


TNS is outside the book. Yes, they're marketing Spiel around a "shift inmentality/ambition" IS true, AND arena districts have proven successful... but at a 400M development (or more if expanded) that is perhaps a strong reach for our market. The CV cooperation may have helped but...

1) Expensive project, high rents well above next highest in city, never mind average rents.
2) No anchor tenant at project initiation or engagement of consultants. MTS Centre had the Moose/True North, CentrePoint had Stantec and Alt (I think Alt was already on board) committed to space. TNS is six, SIX times the size of Centrepoint but had no committed leases when announced. In fairness, a better location.
3) High vacancy office market
4) They've got money and good partnerships though, and the right concept (Arena district)

The point is that this project is super ambitious and a clever play, but ultimately relies on fewer fundamentals typically required to succeed than already speculative projects such as Centrepoint (although I love the TNS project more).

They are smart and capable, but there is a certain amount of grit and elbow grease that helped Centrepoint succeed. TNS will require far more, and is much larger.

Perhaps I'm cautious... and I think TNS will be a success in its current form, but if mainly by some clever moves and sheer determination. It's somewhat of a square peg, round hole situation if we look past the emotional beer goggles we see hockey through.

So to expand on it would have me advise them to pump the brakes and be thrilled with the current state of the project, which actually is still very far from filled with office tenants. Don't get me wrong, I'm a HUGE fan, but an expansion would be a cowboy move. They've made a few cowboy moves in the past, but that shouldn't be a Modus Operandi. To their credit, they wait for their move... other builders/developers keep moving at greater frequency, and the TNS partners wait to strike on something. All of their moves have been specific. Still cavalier though.


Perhaps it was also a bit of a media "hip-hip, hurray" to draw more attention from potential tenants. Then all my points are for naught.

[Cyro]

Originally Posted by Wolf13

We're speculating, so yes, that's all we got for now lol.

It's hard to predict their next move

MTS centre and the Burt are brilliant moves within, albeit it towards the fringes of "the book". CV certainly helped, but that's part of the development equation so good on them.

The Thrashers/Jets acquisition (and Thomson partnership) is damn brilliant.

Centrepoint was a little outside the book in my opinion, but was brought back in with cooperation with CV and a big financial backer w/ real estate experience in Artis.

1) large anchor tenant with stantec. Rock solid move. A cornerstone to the project's success.
4) Strong partnerships. Without the City and without Artis money, this likely wouldn't have made it.


TNS is outside the book. Yes, they're marketing Spiel around a "shift inmentality/ambition" IS true, AND arena districts have proven successful...

1) Expensive project, high rents well above next highest in city, never mind average rents.
2) No anchor tenant at project initiation or engagement of consultants. MTS Centre had the Moose/True North, CentrePoint had Stantec and Alt (I think Alt was already on board) committed to space. TNS is six, SIX times the size of Centrepoint but had no committed leases when announced. In fairness, a better location.
3) High vacancy office market
4) They've got money and good partnerships though, and the right concept (Arena district)

The point is that this project is super ambitious and a clever play, but ultimately relies on fewer fundamentals typically required to succeed than already speculative projects such as Centrepoint (although I love the TNS project more).

They are smart and capable, but there is a certain amount of grit and elbow grease that helped Centrepoint succeed. TNS will require far more, and is much larger.

Perhaps I'm cautious...

So to expand on it would have me advise them to pump the brakes and be thrilled with the current state of the project, which actually is still very far from filled with office tenants. Don't get me wrong, I'm a HUGE fan, but an expansion would be a cowboy move.. All of their moves have been specific. Still cavalier though.

Then all my points are for naught.

I appreciate your take and opinions thus far, the only thing missed was thier involvement in car sales..lol..(edited post due to detail)

I'd consider Scotia Bank an anchor in the largest sense of the term. But with the amount of speculation being discussed, I do admire your positive take on TNSE's track record thus far. They've moved themselves into the position of being a large and somewhat aggressive player in the Winnipeg market, which is some thing that should be applauded whether we may want to suggest and give them advice on thier business dealings in this City..

[esquire]

Originally Posted by Wolf13

2) Hotel would be helped by concerts/Jets... true, but very speculative... so far we're told the Hotel is rarely as occupied as Hotels need to be (Hotel in TNS a much better location with Arena AND Convention centre location, plus provides a clear and superior alternative to existing hotels there).

Great comments, but I have to ask about this point... is location really that much of an issue for the Alt Hotel? It's across the street from MTS Centre, and just a few blocks away from Portage & Main, the Convention Centre and the Exchange District. It's not on the skywalk system but there's access basically across the street. All things considered it's no worse in that regard than the Radisson.

This post also got me wondering why Longboat didn't start by developing the TNS site instead. In some ways with both the smaller Centrepoint and the larger, more glamorous TNS it almost seems like Longboat is competing with itself.

[Wolf13]

Originally Posted by Cyro

I appreciate your take and opinions thus far, the only thing missed was thier involvement in car sales..lol..(edited post due to detail)

I'd consider Scotia Bank an anchor in the largest sense of the term. But with the amount of speculation being discussed, I do admire your positive take on TNSE's track record thus far. They've moved themselves into the position of being a large and somewhat aggressive player in the Winnipeg market, which is some thing that should be applauded whether we may want to suggest and give them advice on thier business dealings in this City..

Oh Scotia is definitely an Anchor! And a major win for TNS! The distinction is that before anything really got going at all on Centrepoint, Stantec was committed to over 80% of the office space. Scotia came along much later in this process, hence why I think TNS was initially more speculative.

In it's earlier stages it seemed like this project might simply get "willed' into existence, but they got MLCC I think, Scotia, TDS and now this thing has genuine legs! Some people like to take the momentum and roll with it, and maybe that's fuelled the expansion talk, but that momentum has yet to fill up 50% of their space.

Sports loves momentum, but Real Estate needs you to hit a target. I hope, for them, they hit the target and call it a VERY successful day, but that's just my observer's opinion. Their track record is immense and applaudable though not conventional. But conventional can be good and I wouldn't wish them that one big unconventional move too many.

Originally Posted by esquire

Great comments, but I have to ask about this point... is location really that much of an issue for the Alt Hotel? It's across the street from MTS Centre, and just a few blocks away from Portage & Main, the Convention Centre and the Exchange District. It's not on the skywalk system but there's access basically across the street. All things considered it's no worse in that regard than the Radisson.

This post also got me wondering why Longboat didn't start by developing the TNS site instead. In some ways with both the smaller Centrepoint and the larger, more glamorous TNS it almost seems like Longboat is competing with itself.

I'm in financials and have dabbled personally in some real estate, but know some real estate people... location is everything. Many laughed at Artis/Longboat when Centrepoint was announced, merely for location and being on the North side of Portage. Think about it.... even GREAT land prices and GREAT locations couldn't get anything done in Wpg for 20 years! Help from CV and an anchor tenant made the project less risky. In fairness, Wpg had to get over its defeatism also.

What made this the exception is that yes, location is the rule, but downtown has nothing new. Chicken and the egg, if you will. Still, it's closer to sketchy Ellice than the Exchange. The Arena is close and that's great, but it's basically a good bonus rather than a guarantor of income. And it's kinda dumb they didn't get a skywalk done. That would have increased property value and visitor count, IMO.

If TNS and Glasshouse were launched simultaneously it would defy logic for Longboat/True North. Getting the pre-sales to 50% was a concern for them to get construction approval. Whether Glasshouse is ultimately a success is only truly Urban Capital's concern, as profits kick in over 80-85% occupancy or even higher. Longboat just needs the building built. Right after that, onto the next project, TNS.

I think it might be timing. MPI only wanted to sell the land later. The City and CV, as well as other partners may have only had the confidence to participate with Centrepoint in place as a "test run." That's just my guess. TNS is a too big a leap for the first new major development in 20 years. Centrepoint is what wet the appetite for Longboat/True North, Fortress and Artis to embark on their megaprojects.

[buzzg]

Originally Posted by Wolf13

MTS centre and the Burt are brilliant moves within, albeit it towards the fringes of "the book". CV certainly helped, but that's part of the development equation so good on them.

I think The Burt was almost a make-up call for them realizing they should have taken the Met to make a Flames Central-esque facility. It'd be better for them to have it right next door, but they were very busy around that time.

Originally Posted by Wolf13

2) Hotel would be helped by concerts/Jets... true, but very speculative... so far we're told the Hotel is rarely as occupied as Hotels need to be (Hotel in TNS a much better location with Arena AND Convention centre location, plus provides a clear and superior alternative to existing hotels there).

Curious who "we" is and who did the telling. As someone with inside knowledge of the hotel, I can tell you Alt far exceeded the industry standards for hotel occupancy rates at key milestones of 3, 6, and 12 months. And they have remained busy. They were not initially aiming for business travellers, as it is not a full service hotel, and does not offer executive suites, points, etc. but have gotten a significantly higher business clientele numer than expected due to

a) there aren't (m)any major points brands in downtown [and]
b) most of their "competition" room-wise (upscale design) is outdated

Originally Posted by Wolf13

2) No anchor tenant at project initiation or engagement of consultants. MTS Centre had the Moose/True North, CentrePoint had Stantec and Alt (I think Alt was already on board) committed to space. TNS is six, SIX times the size of Centrepoint but had no committed leases when announced. In fairness, a better location.

The fact that pretty soon after the TNS announcements were made, major tenants like TDS and Scotia were announced tells me they had these deals in the works for a while. You don't just go to market in a market like Winnipeg with a project of this scale without any deals in place or in the works. TN has always done a good job of keeping things under wraps until they feel is necessary.

[esquire]

Originally Posted by buzzg

They were not initially aiming for business travellers, as it is not a full service hotel, and does not offer executive suites, points, etc. but have gotten a significantly higher business clientele numer than expected due to

a) there aren't (m)any major points brands in downtown [and]
b) most of their "competition" room-wise (upscale design) is outdated

Interesting points regarding Alt's high occupancy. As to the comment regarding points brands downtown, I find it amazing that Starwood, with its dedicated following, is not represented downtown and hasn't been since the former Sheraton dropped out of that chain over a decade ago. Hilton and Hyatt are two other big chains with large loyalty followings that also don't have downtown locations. (Marriott is downtown since taking over Delta along with longtime players Carlson, Fairmont, Best Western and IHG.)

It's hard not to imagine that a new hotel linked to a big chain like SPG or even Hyatt or Hilton wouldn't take a decent chunk out of the business hotel market right from day one given their massive clienteles. That's why I was surprised that TNS announced its hotel partner as Sutton Place (a de facto independent) as opposed to one of the other big chain players.

[Wolf13]

Originally Posted by buzzg

I think The Burt was almost a make-up call for them realizing they should have taken the Met to make a Flames Central-esque facility. It'd be better for them to have it right next door, but they were very busy around that time.



Curious who "we" is and who did the telling. As someone with inside knowledge of the hotel, I can tell you Alt far exceeded the industry standards for hotel occupancy rates at key milestones of 3, 6, and 12 months. And they have remained busy. They were not initially aiming for business travellers, as it is not a full service hotel, and does not offer executive suites, points, etc. but have gotten a significantly higher business clientele numer than expected due to

a) there aren't (m)any major points brands in downtown [and]
b) most of their "competition" room-wise (upscale design) is outdated



The fact that pretty soon after the TNS announcements were made, major tenants like TDS and Scotia were announced tells me they had these deals in the works for a while. You don't just go to market in a market like Winnipeg with a project of this scale without any deals in place or in the works. TN has always done a good job of keeping things under wraps until they feel is necessary.

It was reported on this very site by a member who "asked a close source" that occupancy was well below 50%... Happy to be wrong, but I've heard something similar more than once.

However I wouldn't consider what I heard/read to be of greater reliability than what you know, however.

I'm surprised about the business clientele... while some like something chiq and modern, Fairmont is renovating, and obviously more established which a lot of businesses like, and immediately connected to the major business areas...

No doubt I believe that they were chasing tenants for a while. Still uncommon to go that public in a market like ours with no commitments. While they do know what they're doing, they are still going public sooner than conventional relative to lease commitments, IMO.

Despite my long-winded posts, I truly commend what they've done (not that they should care lol), I only gave those reasons to suggest that it would be good to quit while ahead and forego the idea of expanding. The project as it stands is already a major achievement.

Originally Posted by esquire

Interesting points regarding Alt's high occupancy. As to the comment regarding points brands downtown, I find it amazing that Starwood, with its dedicated following, is not represented downtown and hasn't been since the former Sheraton dropped out of that chain over a decade ago. Hilton and Hyatt are two other big chains with large loyalty followings that also don't have downtown locations. (Marriott is downtown since taking over Delta along with longtime players Carlson, Fairmont, Best Western and IHG.)

It's hard not to imagine that a new hotel linked to a big chain like SPG or even Hyatt or Hilton wouldn't take a decent chunk out of the business hotel market right from day one given their massive clienteles. That's why I was surprised that TNS announced its hotel partner as Sutton Place (a de facto independent) as opposed to one of the other big chain players.

I hope those other players notice Wpg's momentum and come downtown, but we definitely are the bride or groom that gets left at the alter occasionally.

Generally those larger players go through a generic checklist and say "nope" to Winnipeg, simply because when you're a big gun, you can go anywhere else for more money. I think Alt/Sutton will change that, though.

[buzzg]

Originally Posted by esquire

It's hard not to imagine that a new hotel linked to a big chain like SPG or even Hyatt or Hilton wouldn't take a decent chunk out of the business hotel market right from day one given their massive clienteles. That's why I was surprised that TNS announced its hotel partner as Sutton Place (a de facto independent) as opposed to one of the other big chain players.

Yeah I was shocked that TN went with Sutton; I thought it would for sure be a major player, and if it was going to go indepedent, it would be a Le Germain.