Atlantic Canadian Politics Thread

[adamuptownsj]

Somebody has put all the officially nominated candidates on Wikipedia.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_N...ion#Candidates

PCs (17), Liberals (25), and Greens (19) will have full slates of course. Greens seem to have a lot of retreads.

PA has one candidate in Fredericton-York, Michael Broderick (no relation). Seems to be a local riding director stepping up. Not a risk to Ryan Cullins holding the seat for the PCs.

The NDP leader Alex White is going to tilt at the Higgs windmill in Quispamsis; he has previously been crushed by PCs in Saint John East and Hampton. No idea where his home riding is.

[sailor734]

338 Canada did an update on their projections for NB factoring that poll from a few days ago showing Liberals with a 6 point lead in the popular vote.

Update predicts 24 PC , 22Lib and 3 Green if the election was held today.
After picking a speaker that would leave a Lib/Green coalition tied with the PC's. (Unless they could find a PC member who could be bought)

Regardless, it looks like the seat count is very close right now give the greater efficiency of the PC's vote distribution.

We could be in for an interesting 7 months leading up to October. (If Higgs waits that long)

https://338canada.com/nb/

[adamuptownsj]

Originally Posted by sailor734

338 Canada did an update on their projections for NB factoring that poll from a few days ago showing Liberals with a 6 point lead in the popular vote.

Update predicts 24 PC , 22Lib and 3 Green if the election was held today.
After picking a speaker that would leave a Lib/Green coalition tied with the PC's. (Unless they could find a PC member who could be bought)

Regardless, it looks like the seat count is very close right now give the greater efficiency of the PC's vote distribution.

We could be in for an interesting 7 months leading up to October. (If Higgs waits that long)

https://338canada.com/nb/

Not exactly a polling skeptic, but it's hard to analyze polls using, solely, Narrative's quarterly N=400 poll. The last time anyone else polled NB it was Leger in December 2022. Narrative is probably pointing in the right direction, but the NDP are likely overpolled and the PCs underpolled, as they both have been in the last few cycles.

[sailor734]

Originally Posted by adamuptownsj

Not exactly a polling skeptic, but it's hard to analyze polls using, solely, Narrative's quarterly N=400 poll. The last time anyone else polled NB it was Leger in December 2022. Narrative is probably pointing in the right direction, but the NDP are likely overpolled and the PCs underpolled, as they both have been in the last few cycles.

I wonder if there will be ridings where the Greens do well enough to cost the Liberals the seat?

[adamuptownsj]

Originally Posted by sailor734

I wonder if there will be ridings where the Greens do well enough to cost the Liberals the seat?

Oh for sure there will be-- Holt's in one (Fredericton South-Silverwood) where that's plausible. But it's multiparty FPTP and there's no sense in mentally adding Green and Liberal votes together to get a stronger total for the left. If you wanted to look at ridings where the Greens did notably better than their province-wide performance in 2020, a lot of the time the LIBERALS spoiled their chances instead of the other way around.

Liberal strongholds: Restigouche (23%), Belle Baie-Belledune (25%), Shediac-Beaubassin-Cap-Pelé (25%)

Strong Liberal: Moncton East (22%)

Competitive: Moncton North (21%), Saint John Harbour (22%), Fredericton South-Silverwood (39% but with the caveat that Coon represented much of it), Fredericton North (31%)

Strong PC: Fredericton-York (24%)

David Coon would have only gotten 34% in his chosen riding of Fredericton Lincoln, losing by 3% to the PCs. But despite being unfriendly exurban territory, he wasn't on the ballot in much of it back in 2020. It's not like Arseneau has an iron grip on Kent North either. Mitton is definitely safe.

If 2020 was a fluke and the Liberals are going return to 2nd place in rural English ridings... that's a lot of raw votes needed, since they came in 3rd and 4th in many. And the polls aren't showing it, which is paradoxically good for the Liberals as losing these seats with 40% is just as much of a loss as losing them with 15%. There's the question of where the locally significant PA vote goes. There's the purported Green push in the north. Lots of moving parts.

I could buy anything from 2020 redux to a 1/2 seat Liberal majority until there's more candidates in place and more diverse polling sources. Hell I could see the Liberals pick up 2-4 net seats while losing their leader's.

[sailor734]

NB Liberal leader Susan Holt just announced she is joining Nfld premier Andrew Furey (only Liberal provincial premier left in the country) in urging Trudeau to cancel the 23% jump in the Carbon Tax scheduled for April 1.

Even fellow liberals are starting to want to distance themselves from JT. pretty soon Jagmeet will be his only friend!

[sailor734]

New 338Canada update has the CPC support up slightly to 42%. What's interesting to me is that for the first time I can recall the Conservative popular support nationally is virtually equal to that of the Liberals and NDP combined

Another interesting thing to note is that given the seat projections NB looks to be the most Liberal friendly province in the country by far with the Liberals projected to win 40% of the seats.

[adamuptownsj]

Originally Posted by sailor734

New 338Canada update has the CPC support up slightly to 42%. What's interesting to me is that for the first time I can recall the Conservative popular support nationally is virtually equal to that of the Liberals and NDP combined

Another interesting thing to note is that given the seat projections NB looks to be the most Liberal friendly province in the country by far with the Liberals projected to win 40% of the seats.

It's almost impossible to draw a 10-seat map of NB with three French-majority seats where they would win less than four seats outside of a 2011 collapse.

[sailor734]

Originally Posted by adamuptownsj

It's almost impossible to draw a 10-seat map of NB with three French-majority seats where they would win less than four seats outside of a 2011 collapse.

Yes, there are still parts of the province where you could paint a fence post red and get it elected no matter the overall mood of the country.

[SevenSquared]

Originally Posted by sailor734

Yes, there are still parts of the province where you could paint a fence post red and get it elected no matter the overall mood of the country.

I don't have a dog in the red-blue fight, but I'm wondering why you feel the "electable red fence posts" are any more noteworthy than the blue fence posts in most of the non-urban areas in the southern half of the province?

[drewber]

Originally Posted by SevenSquared

I don't have a dog in the red-blue fight, but I'm wondering why you feel the "electable red fence posts" are any more noteworthy than the blue fence posts in most of the non-urban areas in the southern half of the province?

Agreed. Also I'd say the mood of the country is more Trudeau bad something new good as opposed to liberal bad Conservative good.

[darkharbour]

Originally Posted by drewber

Agreed. Also I'd say the mood of the country is more Trudeau bad something new good as opposed to liberal bad Conservative good.

Both great points IMO

[sailor734]

Originally Posted by SevenSquared

I don't have a dog in the red-blue fight, but I'm wondering why you feel the "electable red fence posts" are any more noteworthy than the blue fence posts in most of the non-urban areas in the southern half of the province?

\\

Oh, they're not in my opinion. It was just in reference to the way the Acadian ridings seem to be swimming against the tide and staying steadfastly loyal to the LIbs. No doubt the same would be happening in certain rural blue ridings if we had a deeply unpopular CPC PM and government.

What's interesting is the way parts of NB are still clinging to politics from 50 or 100 years ago. .....The whole "My father voted XXX, his father voted XXX and I vote XXX" type of mindset.

[sailor734]

Originally Posted by drewber

Agreed. Also I'd say the mood of the country is more Trudeau bad something new good as opposed to liberal bad Conservative good.

Agree completely. For a good number of voters leaning CPC one of PP's chief attractions is the fact he isn't Justin Trudeau.

Although, those MPs who have been prominent members of his cabinet are probably tarred with the same brush. That's why I'm not convinced that the liberals can bounce back even if Trudeau left tomorrow.

[adamuptownsj]

Originally Posted by sailor734

\\

Oh, they're not in my opinion. It was just in reference to the way the Acadian ridings seem to be swimming against the tide and staying steadfastly loyal to the LIbs. No doubt the same would be happening in certain rural blue ridings if we had a deeply unpopular CPC PM and government.

What's interesting is the way parts of NB are still clinging to politics from 50 or 100 years ago. .....The whole "My father voted XXX, his father voted XXX and I vote XXX" type of mindset.

New Brunswick sent an all Liberal contingent to Ottawa as recently as 2015. At Peak Harper and the Liberal nadir in 2011, we could only get to seven Conservatives.

Provincially, if anything, the 'historically PC friendly' parts of the north shore STOPPED voting how their fathers voted-- but how much of that was family dynasty based, IDK. The inverse of this would be Rick Doucet in Charlotte County.

The North Shore seats have immensely high turnout and 40-point margins of victory year-in, year-out, while Anglo seats max out much lower margin-wise and turn out at a lower rate. I'll have to crunch the numbers but the turnout, PC margin, and PC % in rural Anglo NB are definitely lower, consistently.

Of course, we're absolutely on a long term trend of the ~16 rural English seats being as consistently loyal to the PCs as the ~16 French seats are to the Liberals. And that's harder math for the Liberals to overcome than it is for the PCs, generally. The demographic apocalypse on the North Shore makes rural Anglo land seem positively fecund, which concentrates more French political capital in East Moncton and Dieppe. Even with growth slowing, I can easily see French NB north of the Miramichi River reduced from 12 seats to 8-9 in 20 years.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by adamuptownsj

Even with growth slowing, I can easily see French NB north of the Miramichi River reduced from 12 seats to 8-9 in 20 years.

I'm sure the SAANB would have something to say about this (the ethnocultural importance of maintaining French representation in the legislature).

[sailor734]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

I'm sure the SAANB would have something to say about this (the ethnocultural importance of maintaining French representation in the legislature).

They can say all they like. Ridings are set by population range. OTHO Greater Moncton area could pick up seats so it could be a wash.

[adamuptownsj]

Yeah the French population isn't disappearing but it is relocating to between Beaubassin and Bouctouche. The commission 'apportions' seats by vaguely-defined regions but unless they wanna get really bold it's gonna get harder and harder. At minimum one seat vanishes next cycle, and it's more likely going to be in Restigouche than anywhere else. And of course, it will move directly to Moncton.

For example, in 1991, Restigouche County had 39K people-- roughly 5.4% of the province. Now it's got 31K-- just 3.7%.

Gloucester 91: 87.5k, 12.1%
Gloucester now: 79k, 9.4%

Madawaska 91: 36.5K, 5%
Madawaska now: 33K, 3.9%

Victoria 91: 20.5K, 2.8%
Victoria now: 19K, 2.3%

Northumberland 91: 53K, 7.3%
Northumberland now: 45K, 5.4%

32-33% of the province lived in these northerly counties until relatively recently. Now, 24-25% do.

[Dengler Avenue]

Originally Posted by adamuptownsj

Yeah the French population isn't disappearing but it is relocating to between Beaubassin and Bouctouche. The commission 'apportions' seats by vaguely-defined regions but unless they wanna get really bold it's gonna get harder and harder. At minimum one seat vanishes next cycle, and it's more likely going to be in Restigouche than anywhere else. And of course, it will move directly to Moncton.

For example, in 1991, Restigouche County had 39K people-- roughly 5.4% of the province. Now it's got 31K-- just 3.7%.

Gloucester 91: 87.5k, 12.1%
Gloucester now: 79k, 9.4%

Madawaska 91: 36.5K, 5%
Madawaska now: 33K, 3.9%

Victoria 91: 20.5K, 2.8%
Victoria now: 19K, 2.3%

Northumberland 91: 53K, 7.3%
Northumberland now: 45K, 5.4%

32-33% of the province lived in these northerly counties until relatively recently. Now, 24-25% do.

Where did the people go?

[adamuptownsj]

Originally Posted by Dengler Avenue

Where did the people go?

Dieppe, Fort Mac, elsewhere.