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Old Posted Nov 16, 2019, 10:39 PM
ssiguy ssiguy is offline
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Canada................post fossil fuels.

We have endless economic debates about oil and it's effects on Alberta but our quickly decarbonizing world will effect so much more of our broader economy in every province. We are quickly moving into a decarbonized economy due to our climate change and pollution ridden emergency.

There is only ONE energy option we have, hydrogen....there is no second place. The amount of technological advancement {and it's applications} in hydrogen even over the last 5 years has been dizzying. Just in the last year a Calgary firm has discovered away to create hydrogen from capped oil wells and the oil sands. The biggest game changer came just 5 days ago. Houston hydrogen scientists have figured out a way to get to desalinate hydrogen...……..we can now get hydrogen power from SEAWATER. Fresh water is the world's most sought after commodity so taking it to create hydrogen has been problematic as those countries need every drop just to fulfill their basic consumption, industrial, and agricultural needs. Now 95% of the planet has access to a clean and endless energy supply.

Will Canada be up to the challenge of responding to a hydrogen based world with no fossil fuel production or exports? How will that change our government coffers, employment, and even regional alienation issues?
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  #2  
Old Posted Nov 16, 2019, 11:02 PM
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Canada overall will be fine. Newfoundland is fucked - oil and gas are the only things keeping the lights on. The only saving grace is our economic hardship and declining population is moving us closer to Iceland - soon we'll be mostly confined to the capital city, as they are. We'll still be bigger, of course - urban and rural population, and geography - but we'll have their structure, which is easier to service.

Alberta doesn't have to be fucked, but voting so right-wing, they will fuck themselves. They'll be like a company that delivers milk by the bottle, instead of transitioning to selling cartons in stores, coming up with increasingly elaborate bottles, singing delivery men, etc. Unless they return to Notley-style leadership soon, and sustain it for longer, it's over for them too.
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Old Posted Nov 17, 2019, 12:35 AM
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Originally Posted by SignalHillHiker View Post
Canada overall will be fine. Newfoundland is fucked - oil and gas are the only things keeping the lights on. The only saving grace is our economic hardship and declining population is moving us closer to Iceland - soon we'll be mostly confined to the capital city, as they are. We'll still be bigger, of course - urban and rural population, and geography - but we'll have their structure, which is easier to service.

Alberta doesn't have to be fucked, but voting so right-wing, they will fuck themselves. They'll be like a company that delivers milk by the bottle, instead of transitioning to selling cartons in stores, coming up with increasingly elaborate bottles, singing delivery men, etc. Unless they return to Notley-style leadership soon, and sustain it for longer, it's over for them too.
NL has the potential to do the same thing as Iceland. Focus on increasing Hydro electric production then go chasing aluminium and other similar industries.

BC, Manitoba and Quebec are very Hydro dependent. They will be fine. Alberta, Saskatchewan and Ontario will adapt.
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Old Posted Nov 17, 2019, 7:45 PM
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A post fossil fuels Canada isn’t going to happen in anyone’s lifetime. And the world is not de-carbonizing. Fossil fuel use will far outlive the “climate crisis“ currently convulsing first world Liberals.

There will be no transition to a hydrogen economy. It’s a difficult fuel to store and transport and has low energy density compared to liquid fuels. BC’s hydrogen hi-way died a merciful death with little fanfare a few years ago. Hydrogen will only ever be a niche fuel for special applications.

Despite decades of promises to prevent a climate crisis, the primary cause of it — global fossil fuel burning — continues to increase rapidly. Last year's record-breaking burn was a doozy.

https://www.nationalobserver.com/201...limate-efforts
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  #5  
Old Posted Nov 17, 2019, 8:57 PM
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Our future energy and hydrogen future is a fact. Full stop. It is not only the best option, more importantly it is our ONLY option. Yes oil will be needed for a long time due to the production of such things as plastics but that is still a very small component of oil oil demands which will keep oil prices suppressed making only the cheapest of production methods financially viable and in this regard, the oil sands definately doesn't qualify.

Battery power will grow but it's applications are far too limited. Also when viewing battery power we are biased by our Western affluence. The reality is that 80% of the world's population do not live in nice suburban single family homes or modern townhouses but rather apartments..............there is no where for these billions to recharge their battery vehicles.

Hydrogen on the other hand can make use of existing gas stations by rebooting them to hydrogen ones. Battery power is also useless for large industrial and agricultural needs as well as mass transportion of freight, transports, cargo ships, ferries, airplanes, or mid/long distance train travel.
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Old Posted Nov 17, 2019, 9:00 PM
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Just to keep on the Canadian topic, what will a decarbonized Canada look like especially if you have certain provinces that refuse to accept this reality like jawagord's? It will have profound impacts on equalization, political represenation, and even auto manufacturing in Ontario if Ontario doesn't begin switching over to hydrogen powered vehicle production.
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Old Posted Nov 17, 2019, 9:08 PM
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Canada post fossil fuels will be bankrupt and invaded by America. Aka not gonna happen.
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  #8  
Old Posted Nov 17, 2019, 9:09 PM
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Canada post fossil fuels will be bankrupt and invaded by America. Aka not gonna happen.
Funny, because Canada pre-Alberta oil was neither of those things.
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  #9  
Old Posted Nov 17, 2019, 9:11 PM
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The end of fossil fuels will happen in stages. We're already seeing the end of coal now. Yes, some countries around the world are still using it, but real growth is gone. Miners aren't getting their jobs back and coal companies are going bankrupt in North America.


Stage 2 will be Oil, and it will start with the expensive producers (cough, Alberta). Again, it will be used for some time, but demand growth is almost over.

Stage 3 will be natural gas, which will probably grow for a decade or two before beginning it's inevitable decline.

Long term investments in oil are a fool's errand today.
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Old Posted Nov 17, 2019, 10:31 PM
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The end of fossil fuels will happen in stages. We're already seeing the end of coal now.
The end of coal because it's a 2.5% below its all-time high consumption from 2013, and 60% higher than it was in 2000?

https://www.forbes.com/sites/rrapier.../#3d9ff5422646

Quote:
Miners aren't getting their jobs back and coal companies are going bankrupt in North America.
Pressured by cheap natural gas.

Quote:
Long term investments in oil are a fool's errand today.
Meanwhile, new Chinese solar capacity additions crashed 54% for Jan-Sept YoY and New Energy Vehicles continue to suffer from the loss of subsidies, down 45% October 2019 vs October 2018, even as oil imports continue to grow.

https://www.pv-tech.org/news/chinas-...to-4.6gw-in-q3

https://europe.autonews.com/automake...in-report-says

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-c...-idUSKBN1XI0IZ
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  #11  
Old Posted Nov 17, 2019, 10:59 PM
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Originally Posted by WarrenC12 View Post
The end of fossil fuels will happen in stages. We're already seeing the end of coal now. Yes, some countries around the world are still using it, but real growth is gone. Miners aren't getting their jobs back and coal companies are going bankrupt in North America.


Stage 2 will be Oil, and it will start with the expensive producers (cough, Alberta). Again, it will be used for some time, but demand growth is almost over.

Stage 3 will be natural gas, which will probably grow for a decade or two before beginning it's inevitable decline.

Long term investments in oil are a fool's errand today.
I completely agree, that is the order which fossil fuel death will take.

The thing with GHG emissions is that it is the developing world that is most desperate to get off them. 30 years ago, the developing world , led by China, didn't care about either GHG emissions nor even pollution and you can't really blame them as both those things were very much caused by the developed world as their relative emissions were quite low. They were desperate to industrialize and were more concerned with feeding their people and improving their standard of living.

The situation today however is completely different. Now those big countries {ie China and India} are very heavily polluted, causing millions of premature deaths, costing their already inadequate and overburdened healthcare systems a fortune, and costing then tens of billions every year in lost productivity. The recent dire situation in Delhi exemplifies this.

We are the beginning phase of a de-carbonizing world and that effort will increase exponentially over the next few decades. Anyone who questions that reality is either woefully ignorant of current events or just living in a delusional hope that things will continue as they always have.
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Old Posted Nov 18, 2019, 1:12 AM
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Seems that in a post-oil era, the Alberta oil sands will still be a big asset for both battery and hydrogen fuels.

Oilsands research could be 'game changer' for renewable energy

Vanadium

www.cbc.ca/amp/1.4608208

Why engineers in Alberta think they've found a way for the oilsands to produce clean fuel

Hydrogen

www.cbc.ca/amp/1.5290297
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  #13  
Old Posted Nov 18, 2019, 1:20 AM
BlaineN BlaineN is offline
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Originally Posted by ssiguy View Post
Just to keep on the Canadian topic, what will a decarbonized Canada look like especially if you have certain provinces that refuse to accept this reality like jawagord's? It will have profound impacts on equalization, political represenation, and even auto manufacturing in Ontario if Ontario doesn't begin switching over to hydrogen powered vehicle production.
It's going to happen sometime, but Jawagord's right, it probably won't be for a while yet.

Still a good topic for discussion. Personally I think the new energy whatever it is, is going to have to be something better than Hydrogen though. They've been trying to use hydrogen as a possibility for a ling time, still has its hurdles.
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  #14  
Old Posted Nov 18, 2019, 2:41 AM
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Originally Posted by jawagord View Post
A post fossil fuels Canada isn’t going to happen in anyone’s lifetime. And the world is not de-carbonizing. Fossil fuel use will far outlive the “climate crisis“ currently convulsing first world Liberals.

There will be no transition to a hydrogen economy. It’s a difficult fuel to store and transport and has low energy density compared to liquid fuels. BC’s hydrogen hi-way died a merciful death with little fanfare a few years ago. Hydrogen will only ever be a niche fuel for special applications.

Despite decades of promises to prevent a climate crisis, the primary cause of it — global fossil fuel burning — continues to increase rapidly. Last year's record-breaking burn was a doozy.

https://www.nationalobserver.com/201...limate-efforts
We should be talking about a journey to a carbon free society that will happen over many decades and based on sound economics.

Here in BC very little electricity comes from hydrocarbons. Almost none.

Air Canada and WestJet are flying aircraft that are 15-20% more fuel efficient that the previous generation.

I see lots of Tesla cars on the road. Slowly as people buy new cars the percentage that is electric is increasing as the technology becomes a more viable alternative.

BC Ferries is shifting to natural gas powered ships over diesel. Cargo and cruise ships are now using shore power when in port instead of burning hydrocarbons.

We are expecting the use of the electric power trains. We have had electric trolly buses for decades and are starting to shift to battery powered. Translink it talking about a shifting to new bus purchasing all being electric.

It should not be about no-carbon but a switch to a lower carbon footprint.
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Old Posted Nov 18, 2019, 3:07 AM
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Originally Posted by jawagord View Post
A post fossil fuels Canada isn’t going to happen in anyone’s lifetime. And the world is not de-carbonizing. Fossil fuel use will far outlive the “climate crisis“ currently convulsing first world Liberals.

There will be no transition to a hydrogen economy. It’s a difficult fuel to store and transport and has low energy density compared to liquid fuels. BC’s hydrogen hi-way died a merciful death with little fanfare a few years ago. Hydrogen will only ever be a niche fuel for special applications.

[I]Despite decades of promises ]
Delusional, start making your pro Wexit signs now and keep ignoring the facts.
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Old Posted Nov 18, 2019, 6:36 AM
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Originally Posted by Hackslack View Post
Seems that in a post-oil era, the Alberta oil sands will still be a big asset for both battery and hydrogen fuels.

Oilsands research could be 'game changer' for renewable energy

Vanadium

www.cbc.ca/amp/1.4608208

Why engineers in Alberta think they've found a way for the oilsands to produce clean fuel

Hydrogen

www.cbc.ca/amp/1.5290297
Well if true that's a cool twist isn't it.
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Old Posted Nov 18, 2019, 6:53 AM
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Air Canada and WestJet are flying aircraft that are 15-20% more fuel efficient that the previous generation.
Which, thanks to Jevon's Paradox, means that the cheaper costs/km and the ability to fly new thinner, longer routes that previously weren't possible or profitable will lead to more air travel and no savings in total fuel consumed.
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Old Posted Nov 18, 2019, 7:51 AM
casper casper is offline
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Which, thanks to Jevon's Paradox, means that the cheaper costs/km and the ability to fly new thinner, longer routes that previously weren't possible or profitable will lead to more air travel and no savings in total fuel consumed.
Some carbon taxes will help moderate demand. Longer-thinner routes may not be as bad as it sounds if it replaced two indirect flights.
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Old Posted Nov 18, 2019, 2:39 PM
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Originally Posted by SignalHillHiker View Post
The only saving grace is our economic hardship and declining population is moving us closer to Iceland - soon we'll be mostly confined to the capital city, as they are. We'll still be bigger, of course - urban and rural population, and geography - but we'll have their structure, which is easier to service.
Iceland and Newfoundland have a very similar landmass, so I suppose the comparison is valid. I don't think this is the end of the world. Accepting this is how things are going to be moving forward is a step in the right direction. The governement does not have to inject hundreds of millions of dollars to maintain the remote parts of the province artificially, this would just delay the unavoidable and would be a huge waste of taxpayer money.

I am ok with places like Badger to shut down, but we cannot let that happen to the picturesque coastal fishermen settlements. Somewhat their economy will have to be 100% tourism-based.
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Old Posted Nov 18, 2019, 4:50 PM
WarrenC12 WarrenC12 is offline
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New car sales (EV/PHEV/Gas/Diesel)

Credit to Blake Shaffer who posted this series on twitter.

Overall new car sales are down slightly in 2018, but anything with a plug is seeing dramatic growth. I'm actually shocked a country like Canada sells close to 2M new cars every year.



Here's what that looks like in percentage terms:



And absolute numbers:



Since EVs today fall into the "car" category and we don't have any trucks, here's the new registration share for just cars, for EV, PHEV, and hybrids:



Less dramatic when trucks are included, of course:



Lastly, 3 of the big 4 provinces all showing growth:



I'm not sure why Alberta is not included, but I suspect incentives are part of it. We'll see what happens in Ontario in 2019 as rebates have changed, but all other markets are experiencing similar growth in 2019, with recent news from BC. We should hit close to 20% of new car sales in 2019-2020 time frame. That's amazing really.
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