Winnipeg political culture is very very conservative (in temperament, not ideology), which means it takes either reckless incompetence or a long time (multiple terms) before voters reach for the 'throw the bums out' button. This is very good for Bowman. The only people who actively dislike him are the increasingly aging, thinning, and cantankerous ranks of CJOB listeners, and old cabal of developers who hate development fees. While the latter group has deep pockets, keep in mind they threw themselves behind
Gord Steeves' mayoral campaign last time around.
Bowman's two main critics on Council, who've both enjoyed a very high profile city-wide, were smart enough to see this.
I would be surprised if Motkaluk garners more than 20% of the vote.
The Council races will be interesting to watch (especially in Fort Rouge, where a former SSP forumer is running).