The Big Atlantic Canada Statistics Thread - Page 38

Haliguy · #**741** Posted **Sep 30, 2019, 4:28 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

I'm beginning to think an NB population of 800,000 might be possible in the next 4-5 years.

and NS hitting the 1 million mark

Taeolas · #**742** Posted **Sep 30, 2019, 4:45 PM**

NS hitting the million seems reasonable to expect in the next couple of years now. Probably not quite from the next census, but maybe after the corrections.

NB is growing slightly slower but has slightly less distance to go population wise, so 3-4 years seems reasonable to crack 800,000. And if we merge with PEI we'd be just shy of 1million as well.

MonctonRad · #**743** Posted **Sep 30, 2019, 4:57 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Taeolas

And if we merge with PEI we'd be just shy of 1million as well.

Moncton would make the ideal capital for a united province too. I'm sure you wouldn't mind, would you Taeolas?

Taeolas · #**744** Posted **Sep 30, 2019, 5:15 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Moncton would make the ideal capital for a united province too. I'm sure you wouldn't mind, would you Taeolas?

Freddy has the Universities and the Military, and a strong/growing IT sector that would all stay put mostly even if the government were to move; so if part of the cost of merging with PEI was to move the capital to Moncton, it would probably be worthwhile. (If "Atlantica" ever had a ghost of a chance of happening, I'd actually be arguing for Moncton to be the new capital of the tri-province)

Of course that union doesn't have a ghost of a chance of happening either, so it's all just thought experiments.

q12 · #**745** Posted **Sep 30, 2019, 9:18 PM**

Population clock seems to have updated again as of September 30th:

Nova Scotia 976,295
New Brunswick 779,660

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/...018005-eng.htm

Nova Scotia now only 23,700 people away from one million.

New Brunswick only 20,340 people away from 800,000.

Nova Scotia should hit one million by the end of 2021.

q12 · #**746** Posted **Oct 8, 2019, 12:53 PM**

Some calculations I made based on the population clock and Stats Canada estimates, the Maritimes have grown by almost 23,000 people in the last year (October 2018-October 2019).

Maritimes October 2019 population estimate: 1,915,000

October 2018 - October 2019
Nova Scotia +12,000
New Brunswick +7,000
P.E.I. +3,650
Newfoundland and Labrador -4,300

Bishop2047 · #**747** Posted **Oct 8, 2019, 1:09 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by q12

Some calculations I made based on the population clock and Stats Canada estimates, the Maritimes have grown by almost 23,000 people in the last year (October 2018-October 2019).

Maritimes October 2019 population estimate: 1,915,000

October 2018 - October 2019
Nova Scotia +12,000
New Brunswick +7,000
P.E.I. +3,650
Newfoundland and Labrador -4,300

It is still a long way off but Charlottetown will be a CMA in the not so distant future if this growth is somewhat sustainable. Most of the growth on the island is the the CA, and was already nearly 77,000 in 2016. That will be 5 CMAs all in relatively close proximity.

q12 · #**748** Posted **Oct 8, 2019, 1:10 PM**

Nova Scotia is getting younger for the first time since 1964!

P.E.I. is also getting younger at an even faster rate.

Quote:

Until further notice, there ought to be a moratorium on the phrase, “Nova Scotia’s aging population.”

https://www.thechronicleherald.ca/op...t-year-360120/

MonctonRad · #**749** Posted **Oct 8, 2019, 1:32 PM**

And the age curve for NB is flattening as well. It very well might reverse in the next statistical period too.

The age curve in NL is accelerating though.

MonctonRad · #**750** Posted **Oct 8, 2019, 1:43 PM**

As per the above:

Moncton to seek thousands more immigrants to sustain economic growth
5-year plan lays out ways to attract, retain more immigrants
Shane Magee · CBC News · Posted: Oct 08, 2019 6:00 AM AT | Last Updated: 4 hours ago
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-b...tegy-1.5312480

Quote:

The Greater Moncton Immigration Strategy 2020-2024 suggests the region will need 2,700 to 3,500 immigrants per year by 2024. It calls for a third to be francophone.

Quote:

Immigrants represented 67 per cent of the population growth in the (Moncton) region last year. That's up from 22 per cent in 2009.

Quote:

The report says there are already more than 8,000 immigrants living in the region, with 5,000 active in the labour market. It states there are 1,500 to 2,000 international students attending public and private post-secondary institutions. Another 700 temporary foreign workers are also in the area.

The international student population is interesting. UdeM is well known to market itself to la francophonie, but apparently there is also an expanding international student population at Crandall too. MTA is already popular with international students. In addition to the above, I've noticed a lot of south Asian and Chinese students in the area around NBCC as I drive by, commuting back and forth to work. I imagine CCNB Dieppe might be the same, as well as the various private colleges around the metro area........

q12 · #**751** Posted **Oct 8, 2019, 1:44 PM**

I agree New Brunswick looks like it might be able to stop using the word "aging population" any day.

This is really remarkable to have such a dynamic shift in median age. It's also worth pointing out the natural birth rates are still below death rates. This age drop is all to do with immigration and inter-provincial net migration.

Interesting that only Nova Scotia, P.E.I. and Ontario reported lower median age as of July 1, 2019 in Canada.

Quote:

Nova Scotia's median age was 44.9 years. After years of strong immigration and net interprovincial migration, Nova Scotia's median age declined from July 1, 2018 (median age: 45.1 years) to July 1, 2019. There hasn't been a decline in Nova Scotia's median age since 1964. Nova Scotia is not unique in its declining median age; Ontario and Prince Edward Island also reported lower median age as of July 1, 2019.

https://novascotia.ca/finance/statis...f=&dto=0&dti=3

Stats Canada Source:
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1...pid=1710000501

MonctonRad · #**752** Posted **Oct 20, 2019, 7:30 PM**

So, brace yourselves, Moncton is the second hottest housing market in the country!!!

https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/entry/...2BldOUML1NidHC

Quote:

Real estate agents in Halifax note increased interest in their housing market from abroad; in Moncton, realtors suggest an influx of people from other parts of Canada, as well as from abroad, is pushing the market up.

If this trend continues into the medium term, expect to see more new apartment construction in the city.........

DyAm00394 · #**753** Posted **Oct 20, 2019, 7:58 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

So, brace yourselves, Moncton is the second hottest housing market in the country!!!

https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/entry/...2BldOUML1NidHC

If this trend continues into the medium term, expect to see more new apartment construction in the city.........

Awesome to see Saint John in the list too. Rank #4 at that! (compared to last month's rank of #7). And I agree, if the trend continues Moncton will see more apartments complexes constructed.

Also, I've found the one for June 2019 and Moncton was second at that time as well. And the month before (May 2019) it was ranked #1!!!.

Saint John was ranked #3 in June 2019! And the month before (May 2019) it was rank #7 https://www.scotiabank.com/content/d...2019-07-15.pdf

Bishop2047 · #**754** Posted **Oct 20, 2019, 10:37 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

So, brace yourselves, Moncton is the second hottest housing market in the country!!!

https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/entry/...2BldOUML1NidHC

If this trend continues into the medium term, expect to see more new apartment construction in the city.........

I know it had been a record setting summer in Fredericton as well (though we are left off if these studies untill it becomes a CMA)

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cbc.ca/amp/1.5201871

I know immigration is part of it as the article cites, but I know many (including myself) who have moved to the Maritimes recently are doing it thanks to affordable housing and quality of life. The word is getting out there. I have lived in my subdivision for 2 years now and can think of 5 families on my street that have moved in and all were from Quebec or Ontario (I moved from SK). Each of us would site cost of living as a primary reason for relocation.

Bishop2047 · #**755** Posted **Nov 7, 2019, 9:52 PM**

https://www.gnb.ca/FTB-FCT/?lang=en

Here is a nifty new dashboard of sortable NB statistics. Hope this gets updated regularly.

KnoxfordGuy · #**756** Posted **Nov 8, 2019, 3:08 PM**

215 homes were sold in Fredericton in October according to the Canadian Real Estate Association. That's a record for the month. I'm looking forward to the Moncton and Saint John numbers. The stats out of those cities have been hot lately.

Fischbob · #**757** Posted **Dec 6, 2019, 1:34 AM**

25 years of population change in greater Saint John (1991-2016):

Fischbob · #**758** Posted **Dec 6, 2019, 2:56 AM**

And here's 25 years of population change in greater Moncton (1991-2016):

Looks slightly different because I used a different software package for it - also note that the legend and thus what the colours mean differs somewhat to reflect Moncton's growth patterns (i.e. some very high-growth CTs).

MonctonRad · #**759** Posted **Dec 6, 2019, 4:14 AM**

Thanks for this.

In Moncton's case the inner city areas losing population aren't so much because people are fleeing the city, but more simply because the neighbourhoods are aging and younger families with children are more drawn to the suburban areas (picket fences, schools etc).

Of course, there are some less than desirable central city neighbourhoods where people are fleeing (like Dominion and High), but they are in the minority.

Are you planning on doing a map for Freddy too???

Fischbob · #**760** Posted **Dec 6, 2019, 1:03 PM**

Unfortunately, I don't have the 1991 data for Freddy as it hadn't yet been assigned Census Tracts. I might take a look to find what Census year this data first appears and do an abbreviated "<25 years of population change in greater Fredericton", but that will have to wait as I'll be out of province as of later today.

The SJ map tells the well-worn story of inner-city neighbourhood decline and flight to the suburbs, both within and outside City limits. I was surprised by a couple things though. First, Rothesay actually lost population overall - I can only assume this was a result of new development moving further out (into Quispamsis) along with a number of households becoming empty nesters. Also interesting that the early-2000s development around Fort Howe (granted, in a CT that started with a low population) shows up so visibly. And while the Peninsula saw significant losses over the 25-year period, the central Uptown managed to hold the line overall, and obviously we know most of the gains came in the last Census period (when it grew by 15%).

This was a fun little exercise. One of the data prep considerations is the fact that Census Tracts change over time - the larger-population ones will get divided up as needed over the years - so it took a bit of time to "re-construct" the 2016 data to fit with the CT configuration in 1991.