2020 Presidential Election Results by Top 50 MSA

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by steely dan

^ fascinating.

Something interesting occurs between '92 and '96.

The philly msa majorly amps up +8.4 points over '92 for clinton's second run in '96 and has never looked back, solidly backing team blue ever since.

Meanwhile, over in the pittsburgh msa, clinton loses 10 points from '92 to '96 as pittsburgh begins its long slide down into the red zone, long before the rise of trumpism.

The same bill clinton ran in both '92 & '96, but pa's two big metros responded to him in radically divergent ways the 2nd time around.

It was NAFTA.

[pj3000]

Originally Posted by ChiSoxRox

Philadelphia and Pittsburgh form a fascinating contrast: Philadelphia swings as the suburbs move from deep red Rockefeller Republicans to the modern navy blue reservoir that flips the entire state. Meanwhile Pittsburgh goes from lunchpail-and-hard hat union Dems, to resonating with Trump's message...

I crunched the numbers for the current MSAs back to Nixon:

Philadelphia MSA
2020 - Biden +29.7%
2016 - Clinton +27.6%
2012 - Obama +29.0%
2008 - Obama +31.3%
2004 - Kerry +22.3%
2000 - Gore +23.9%
1996 - Clinton +24.4%
1992 - Clinton +16.0%
1988 - Bush +2.3%
1984 - Reagan +5.8%
1980 - Reagan +3.3%
1976 - Carter +8.8%
1972 - Nixon +13.3%

Pittsburgh MSA
2020 - Trump +2.3%
2016 - Trump +4.8%
2012 - Romney +1.3%
2008 - Obama +2.7%
2004 - Kerry +4.2%
2000 - Gore +8.1%
1996 - Clinton +11.5%
1992 - Clinton +21.5%
1988 - Dukakis +18.9%
1984 - Mondale +12.6%
1980 - Carter +5.4%
1976 - Carter +7.3%
1972 - Nixon +14.0%

Not surprising at all for someone who understands how different the two greater regions are from each other. The Pittsburgh MSA is very different from the Philadelphia MSA in many ways, but in particular, it is structurally very different... and many other differences flow from that fact.

The counties surrounding Philadelphia are true suburban counties around a large urban core, with lots of connectivity.

This is not even close to the case with the counties surrounding Pittsburgh. It's Appalachian terrain in southwestern PA. Even Allegheny County, of which Pittsburgh is the center, has very rural parts. The majority of the geographic areas of Pittsburgh "MSA" counties Armstrong, Butler, and Fayette have very little to do with Pittsburgh, besides liking the Steelers. And all of the surrounding counties are largely rural and disconnected from Pittsburgh, in comparison to the situation in Philly.

[eschaton]

Originally Posted by pj3000

Not surprising at all for someone who understands how different the two greater regions are from each other. The Pittsburgh MSA is very different from the Philadelphia MSA in many ways, but in particular, it is structurally very different... and many other differences flow from that fact.

The counties surrounding Philadelphia are true suburban counties around a large urban core, with lots of connectivity.

This is not even close to the case with the counties surrounding Pittsburgh. It's Appalachian terrain in southwestern PA. Even Allegheny County, of which Pittsburgh is the center, has very rural parts. The majority of the geographic areas of Pittsburgh "MSA" counties Armstrong, Butler, and Fayette have very little to do with Pittsburgh, besides liking the Steelers. And all of the surrounding counties are largely rural and disconnected from Pittsburgh, in comparison to the situation in Philly.

Yeah, the Pittsburgh MSA is really artificially inflated for some reason. Armstrong County absolutely should not be included. I looked into this years ago, and apparently the reason it was included was because decades ago the local hospitals lobbied hard, as it would mean they would get the Pittsburgh MSA reimbursement from Medicare rather than the lower non-metropolitan area. Freeport on the far southwestern corner is arguably barely tied into Pittsburgh, but that's about it.

Really though, a lot of the dying mill towns in this area are about as tangentially connected to Pittsburgh as Canton or Ashtabula is to Cleveland.

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by Will O' Wisp

You've also got the passage of NAFTA in 1994 and the beginnings of the internet revolution circa 1994-96. The service economy, based mainly in the largest cities, rapidly expands while the more rural manufacturing economy is increasingly outsourced. Blue collar workers see their livelihoods threatened, while the power of white collar workers increases, and that the Democrats are apparently fine with this outcome...

Even today, that arguably remains the case. Biden's plan to increase manufacturing is essentially the same as Clinton's, it would likely work but the resulting jobs will be fairly high skill positions in heavily automated factories. For undereducated low skill workers things are unlikely to improve. The Trump "plan" to cut environmental protections, minimum wages, and social care to the bare minimum could theoretically make American labor cheap enough preserve low skill positions, at least for a time, but at the cost of reducing the US to the status of a developing nation. But even traditional conservatives can some very big concerns about the idea of running the country like Pakistan or Brazil, as in places like that the government can be unstable and capricious with private property, which was probably the decisive factor in turning just about every area in the country which would not see a major benefit from preserving low skill manufacturing jobs against Trump.

I don't think "governments can be unstable and capricious regarding private property in Brazil", nor the country is nowhere close to Pakistan by any metric.

[ChiSoxRox]

Is there any other MSA (or other collection of counties) that this thread would like to see the political evolution of?

Los Angeles (CSA, so with the Inland Empire/Ventura) came to mind, but it winds up being a similar track to Philadelphia, except much more solidly Republican pre-1988/1992 pivot.

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by eschaton

Yeah, the Pittsburgh MSA is really artificially inflated for some reason.

The smaller the metro area, the less the MSA county mash-up game tends to work.

I mean, 5,300 freaking square miles for a population of 2.3 million is kinda ridiculous.

It would be much more useful if we had election results tabulated by Urban Area.

The Pittsburgh UA is ~900 square miles, and allegheny county is ~750 square miles.

So....... close enough?

And biden won allegheny by 20 points. So what actually constitutes "Pittsburgh", IRL on the ground, is nowhere close to being MAGA country.

[pj3000]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

The smaller the metro area, the less the MSA county mash-up game tends to work.

I mean, 5,300 freaking square miles for a population of 2.3 million is kinda ridiculous.

It would be much more useful if we had election results tabulated by Urban Area.

The Pittsburgh UA is ~900 square miles, and allegheny county is ~750 square miles.

So....... close enough?

And biden won allegheny by 20 points. So what actually constitutes "Pittsburgh", IRL on the ground, is nowhere close to being MAGA country.

Yeah, city of Pittsburgh proper and its older surrounding towns and near suburban areas are certainly NOT MAGA land. Of course, you're going to see Trump signs and flags scattered about, with more of them in suburban areas, and in the urban river valley towns further out.

[wwmiv]

Originally Posted by ChiSoxRox

Is there any other MSA (or other collection of counties) that this thread would like to see the political evolution of?

Los Angeles (CSA, so with the Inland Empire/Ventura) came to mind, but it winds up being a similar track to Philadelphia, except much more solidly Republican pre-1988/1992 pivot.

Texas’s metros.

[ChiSoxRox]

Originally Posted by pj3000

Yeah, city of Pittsburgh proper and its older surrounding towns and near suburban areas are certainly NOT MAGA land. Of course, you're going to see Trump signs and flags scattered about, with more of them in suburban areas, and in the urban river valley towns further out.

Indeed as the outlying counties go red (Westmoreland has the largest swing), Allegheny has even increased its blue margin.

Biden virtually tied for the highest percentage of the Allegheny County vote for a Democrat since Lyndon Johnson annihilated Goldwater in 1964.

Year .....Republican .....Democratic .....Third parties
2020 .....39.1% 282,304 .....59.4% 429,065 .....1.5% 11,104
2016 .....39.5% 259,480 .....55.9% 367,617 .....4.6% 30,092
2012 .....42.0% 262,039 .....56.5% 352,687 .....1.5% 9,101
2008 .....41.6% 272,347 .....57.1% 373,153 .....1.3% 8,539
2004 .....42.1% 271,925 .....57.2% 368,912 .....0.7% 4,632
2000 .....40.4% 235,361 .....56.7% 329,963 .....3.0% 17,154
1996 .....37.9% 204,067 .....52.8% 284,480 .....9.3% 50,068
1992 .....29.8% 183,035 .....52.8% 324,004 .....17.5% 107,148
1988 .....39.4% 231,137 .....59.5% 348,814 .....1.1% 6,200
1984 .....42.8% 284,692 .....56.0% 372,576 .....1.3% 8,480
1980 .....43.8% 271,850 .....47.9% 297,464 .....8.4% 52,104
1976 .....46.8% 303,127 .....50.7% 328,343 .....2.5% 16,387
1972 .....55.6% 371,737 .....42.3% 282,496 .....2.1% 14,302
1968 .....37.1% 264,790 .....51.1% 364,906 .....11.8% 84,121
1964 .....33.6% 241,707 .....66.0% 475,207 .....0.4% 2,811

I'll work on the Texas metros over the next few days.

[wwmiv]

Originally Posted by ChiSoxRox

Indeed as the outlying counties go red (Westmoreland has the largest swing), Allegheny has even increased its blue margin.

Biden virtually tied for the highest percentage of the Allegheny County vote for a Democrat since Lyndon Johnson annihilated Goldwater in 1964.



I'll work on the Texas metros over the next few days.

Would you mind breaking down Dallas and Fort Worth into the metropolitan divisions?

[ChiSoxRox]

Originally Posted by wwmiv

Would you mind breaking down Dallas and Fort Worth into the metropolitan divisions?

Definitely.

Biden was the first Democrat since LBJ to win Tarrant County, although Johnson, Parker, and Wise will flip the Fort Worth division back to red.

[Docere]

NYC results:

Bronx 83.3%-15.9% (Biden)
Brooklyn 76.8%-22.1% (Biden)
Manhattan 86.4%-12.2% (Biden)
Queens 72%-26.9% (Biden)
Staten Island 56.9%-42% (Trump)

Total 76.2%-22.7% (Biden)

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/statu...16091727351812

[pip]

here is a clickable map of Chicago's election results by neighborhood.

https://blockclubchicago.org/2020/11...ver-joe-biden/

Chicago was roughly 82% Biden

[Docere]

I guess the Orthodox Jews, Russians and Italians make NYC a bit less Democratic than Chicago.

[Steely Dan]

City of Chicago unofficial result:

Biden 82.5% / Trump 15.8%



Biden won ALL 50 wards in the city.

Though the "cop & fireman" hood on the extreme NW side (the 41st ward) was pretty close, as usual (Biden 50.9% / Trump 47.5%).




My home ward (the 47th):

Biden 87.4% / Trump 10.7%



Who are those 10.7%?

I've never met them.

Probably really old people.

[Docere]

https://twitter.com/mcimaps/status/1333933935525572608

South Shore of Staten Island and Orthodox Brooklyn are deep red.

[Comrade]

Here's Salt Lake City. No precinct went to Trump - all Biden.

The red is an area of unincorporated Salt Lake County that went to Trump 18-8 (yes, 18 votes to 8 for Biden lol).

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by Docere

I guess the Orthodox Jews, Russians and Italians make NYC a bit less Democratic than Chicago.

Chicago's italians are mostly all out in the burbs now.

Russians are not a political factor in chicago.

And the few orthodox jews we do have are primarily concentrated in the 50th ward on the far north side (west ridge), which was significantly below the citywide average, though still comfortably biden (Biden 64.3% / Trump 34.4%).

But yeah, there aren't enough of any of them to move the needle much here like they apparently did in NYC.

[JManc]

Harris County. I live in Kingwood (part of Houston) where Trump had a ~37% margin of victory. Lot's of old people around here. Boomers and older who've been here since the area was built in the 70's.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by Docere

https://twitter.com/mcimaps/status/1333933935525572608

South Shore of Staten Island and Orthodox Brooklyn are deep red.

Those red areas of Brooklyn are the Eastern European (Russian, Ukrainian, etc) neighborhoods (Brighton Beach, Bensonhurst, etc). The areas with large numbers of Orthodox appear to be still blue, albeit light blue.