DFW area attracting 2 million people by 2030?

Dariusb · #1 Posted **Jan 6, 2020, 1:38 AM**

I saw a post on another site where someone said that they read that by 2030 the DFW Metroplex will attract another 2 million people. That seems too high considering the area attracted 1 million people between 2010-20. I'd think that'd be too much of a burden on the regions services. Do you think this is possible or just a heavy handed guestimate? What are your thoughts especially those of you who live in the area? Also has there been any city in the US to attract that many people in a decade?

The ATX · #2 Posted **Jan 6, 2020, 1:49 AM**

DFW had a 1.1 million increase between 2010 and 2018. So 1.5 million between 2020 and 2030 is a reasonable estimate. Two million is not an impossibility.

mhays · #3 Posted **Jan 6, 2020, 3:57 AM**

I'll make a guess. Someone used the 2010 figure as the "current" population.

People are dimwits, frankly.

Dariusb · #4 Posted **Jan 6, 2020, 3:59 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by mhays

I'll make a guess. Someone used the 2010 figure as the "current" population.

People are dimwits, frankly.

They might have. The idea of 2 million people moving to one area in 10 years is just mind boggling.

dimondpark · #5 Posted **Jan 6, 2020, 4:18 AM**

Seriously doubt it. The growth rate is already decreasing.

Dallas-Ft Worth MSA Pop Growth:
1980-1990 +32.09% +974,000
1990-2000 +29.38% +1,187,000
2000-2010 +23.22% +1,205,000
2010-2018 +16.86% +1,078,000

ThePhun1 · #6 Posted **Jan 6, 2020, 10:50 AM**

Nm

dollaztx · #7 Posted **Jan 7, 2020, 6:54 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by dimondpark

Seriously doubt it. The growth rate is already decreasing.

Dallas-Ft Worth MSA Pop Growth:
1980-1990 +32.09% +974,000
1990-2000 +29.38% +1,187,000
2000-2010 +23.22% +1,205,000
2010-2018 +16.86% +1,078,000

I'm sorry, are you comparing 2010-2018 to 2000-2008 and so on or 8 yrs to 10 yrs? Just wondering cause if it has grown by 1,078,000 than on average it would grow 269,500 more by 2020 to a total numerical growth of 1,347,500. That would put it at about 21% which would still have it just slightly decreasing in percentage but not numerically.

On the OP's question, I highly doubt DFW adds 2 mil. I think it will continue it's current growth but no way it will grow that much.

dimondpark · #8 Posted **Jan 7, 2020, 7:08 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by dollaztx

I'm sorry, are you comparing 2010-2018 to 2000-2008 and so on or 8 yrs to 10 yrs? Just wondering cause if it has grown by 1,078,000 than on average it would grow 269,500 more by 2020 to a total numerical growth of 1,347,500. That would put it at about 21% which would still have it just slightly decreasing in percentage but not numerically.

On the OP's question, I highly doubt DFW adds 2 mil. I think it will continue it's current growth but no way it will grow that much.

The census bureau only goes up to 2018 so that's as far as I could go, and your projection could be true, we'll have to wait and see.

The decline in percentage is clear tho.

homebucket · #9 Posted **Jan 8, 2020, 4:04 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by dimondpark

Seriously doubt it. The growth rate is already decreasing.

Dallas-Ft Worth MSA Pop Growth:
1980-1990 +32.09% +974,000
1990-2000 +29.38% +1,187,000
2000-2010 +23.22% +1,205,000
2010-2018 +16.86% +1,078,000

Here's the data for the core Bay Area which is comprised of 9 counties (Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, Napa, San Mateo, Santa Clara, Solano, Sonoma, and San Francisco):
1980-1990 +16.3% +843,793
1990-2000 +12.6% +760,183
2000-2010 +5.4% +366,979
2010-2018 +8.4% +602,284

It'll be interesting to see the data for the entire decade of 2010-2020. While population growth rate is obviously nowhere near that of the DFW MSA, it's actually doing reasonably well. At least it's not decreasing like some tend to think. The type of people moving in are probably not the same as those moving into the DFW area as well (top talent from other countries/states coming in rather than another state's sloppy seconds). It's also a good thing the growth rate is not as high as DFW's because the region's infrastructure wouldn't be able to support that kind of growth. Even with the 3rd lowest percentage of workers commuting by private vehicle in the nation, traffic is among the worst, and the public transportation network has lots of room for improvement. Thankfully, the region's topography and willingness to preserve open space helps limit sprawl from worsening.

Just as a FYI, the Bay Area's greatest period of population growth occurred from 1940-1970:
1940-1950 +54.6% +947,014
1950-1960 +35.7% +957,617
1960-1970 +27.2% +989,260

JAYNYC · #10 Posted **Jan 8, 2020, 4:22 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by homebucket

The type of people moving in are probably not the same as those moving into the DFW area as well (top talent from other countries/states coming in rather than another state's sloppy seconds).

Brilliant insight.

This type of drivel - in addition to showcasing your most transparent ignorance and bias - is completely uncalled for, and in no way reflects a positive contribution to the discussion.

dimondpark · #11 Posted **Jan 6, 2020, 4:24 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dariusb

They might have. The idea of 2 million people moving to one area in 10 years is just mind boggling.

I wont be impressed until another area rivals this...

1980-1990 Population Growth:
Los Angeles MSA +1,843,000
Los Angeles CSA +3,038,000

LA21st · #12 Posted **Jan 6, 2020, 12:47 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by dimondpark

I wont be impressed until another area rivals this...

1980-1990 Population Growth:
Los Angeles MSA +1,843,000
Los Angeles CSA +3,038,000

Yea, I vaguely remember (I was a kid lol) in the late 80s people on the east coast being shocked
How large la had become. It surpassed Chicago years prior, and it just seemed La was taken seriously as a major metropolis until the 80s.
Woody Allen's known disdain was from the 1970s movies .

Dariusb · #13 Posted **Jan 6, 2020, 6:37 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by dimondpark

I wont be impressed until another area rivals this...

1980-1990 Population Growth:
Los Angeles MSA +1,843,000
Los Angeles CSA +3,038,000

That's nuts and impressive at the same time!

ThePhun1 · #14 Posted **Jan 6, 2020, 10:47 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dariusb

They might have. The idea of 2 million people moving to one area in 10 years is just mind boggling.

Think of what LA must have been doing for decades.

Dariusb · #15 Posted **Jan 6, 2020, 3:57 AM**

So, if that does happen, the population of the area would be damn near 10 million, right?

SFBruin · #16 Posted **Jan 6, 2020, 8:56 AM**

I doubt it. The past decade has been a decade of tremendous growth for DFW. I predict a regression to the mean.

Crawford · #17 Posted **Jan 6, 2020, 12:32 PM**

That would be insane. It would mean the fastest growing major U.S. metro would double in growth rate. You would have endless McMansion sprawl to Oklahoma.

Short answer is no, not gonna happen. It would be amazing if DFW maintained its growth rate, which likely isn't sustainable given demographic trends.

JManc · #18 Posted **Jan 6, 2020, 3:18 PM**

They were predicting an added 1-2 million in Houston and DFW by 2030 since around 2000. Doubt 2 million will be added in just ten years.

badrunner · #19 Posted **Jan 6, 2020, 7:28 PM**

I think this is equally as impressive:

LA MSA:
1920: 997,830
1930: 2,327,166

+1,329,336

followed up by:
1940: 2,916,403
1950: 4,367,911
1960: 6,742,696

dave8721 · #20 Posted **Jan 6, 2020, 8:06 PM**

The 3 South Florida core counties had some big growth decades but nothing that can match LA. Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach grew by 803k in the 1950s 984k in the 1970s and another 951k in the 1990s. I am sure Chicago and Detroit had some pretty big growth in the early 1900s (late 1800s for Chicago).