Atlantic Canadian Politics Thread

[MonctonRad]

So Gallant wants to continue governing despite having fewer seats.

This may be his right under the Westminster system, but I think this notion of his is ill conceived.

He would need support from both the GRN and PANB and this just ain't gonna happen.

Gallant is a dead man walking. He just doesn't realize it yet.

[Feneant]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Gallant is a dead man walking. He just doesn't realize it yet.

Maybe next time he will think twice about strongly expressing his refusal to work with a specific party, his overconfidence may cost him any chance at a coalition.

Anyone else think it amusing when Steve Murphy asked his panel about the PC And liberals working together? Interesting point but also

[JHikka]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

So Gallant wants to continue governing despite having fewer seats.

I know you don't like him but he has every right to attempt to continue governing if no party has a majority. It's up to the LG to determine whether or not she thinks she should let the Liberals have a go at a throne speech or let the PCs have first shot at a throne speech. The Liberals likely get voted down by the PCs/PA in the legislature, so it'll end up going to the PCs to form government which they can with the PA.

It's essentially up to whether or not the LG wants this all to play out in the fall or not. Either way it seems likely we'll get a PC/PA government for a little bit.

Originally Posted by Taeolas

One thing I'm curious about while we waited for the results. Why did it take so long for some of those polling stations to report in?

It was something to do with the connectivity/software of the tabulating machines in select ridings. Carleton-Victoria was especially difficult and they had to count the final votes by hand. It seems like the machines have a difficult time sorting through the advance and special ballots.

[felip_ars]

Maybe Gallant is hoping that the lone franco PC could potentially jump ship (or at least go as an Independant).

Gauvin stated this morning that he will not stay with a party that would removes franco's right.

Of course, thats what he's saying now, but given that there's a very good chance that whoever is in power will not last the 4 years, he'll have to think about that when he'll seeking re-election.

Btw, someone posted what it would have looked like if it would have been a "Proportional Election"

LIB 19
PC 16
GP 6
PA 6
NPD 2

[magee_b]

Originally Posted by Taeolas

One thing I'm curious about while we waited for the results. Why did it take so long for some of those polling stations to report in?

Are some of the stations not using the automatic counting scanatron system?

Or are they just remote stations that have to be sealed and driven back to civilization before they can report in?

So, the automatic bit, isn't so automatic.

What happens in practice once the polls close is each polling stations does a print out from each machine, and these results are called into the local returning office... they do this because we all want "up to the minute results" and this is the fastest way to get them... problem here, is that it relies on a phone call and 2 humans... so a result can sometimes be written down incorrectly before shared (see the previous election for examples), or one of the polling stations can forget to call in and report before packing up the machines and sending them to the returning office. The results that are called in are not official, but are shared with the media so that we can get our instant news fix.

It's once the machine is back at the returning office that the info is uploaded, and the actual votes are properly known (which is why there are sometimes changes... the machine data overwriting the part where a human entered in the phoned-in results). So a "late result" can be because there wasn't a phone call made and they are waiting for the machines to come into the riding's returning office (which it's usually the polling station supervisor bringing in the results and they have to wait until the polling station is completely packed away), or something was written down incorrectly or was unreadable (so again, waiting for the machine to come with the actual results). Its also at this time that the advance polling ballots are processed. They usually do it last as there's a ton of processes to follow when shutting down the polling stations and getting the pre-results in properly.

In sum... the machines count properly, but the timing and inputting of the actual results still depends on humans

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by felip_ars

Maybe Gallant is hoping that the lone franco PC could potentially jump ship (or at least go as an Independant).

Gauvin stated this morning that he will not stay with a party that would removes franco's right.

Nobody is talking about removing francophone rights, certainly not Higgs, and I don't think even Austen (if you look at his platform carefully).

At most, I think there is a desire to apply official bilingualism in a more thoughtful manner rather than by using a legislative or judicial sledgehammer.

Does bilingualism need to be applied equally in all parts of the province? Should different rules apply in Lameque vs Grand Manan - that sort of thing.

[Franco401]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Nobody is talking about removing francophone rights, certainly not Higgs, and I don't think even Austen (if you look at his platform carefully).

At most, I think there is a desire to apply official bilingualism in a more thoughtful manner rather than by using a legislative or judicial sledgehammer.

Does bilingualism need to be applied equally in all parts of the province? Should different rules apply in Lameque vs Grand Manan - that sort of thing.

Eliminating official bilingualism is a want for the PA, not a promise. See what happens if, in 20 years, they've hypothetically replaced the PCs as NB's prominent right-of-centre party and can get a majority. Then again, it's pretty difficult to get to that level if you're promising 30% of the province that you'll make their lives tangibly more difficult.

[Franco401]

Full results:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...zHw/edit#gid=0

[JHikka]

Originally Posted by Franco401

Eliminating official bilingualism is a want for the PA, not a promise. See what happens if, in 20 years, they've hypothetically replaced the PCs as NB's prominent right-of-centre party and can get a majority. Then again, it's pretty difficult to get to that level if you're promising 30% of the province that you'll make their lives tangibly more difficult.

~27-28% of NBers speak French at home, dropping every year. Will likely hit 25% in a decade. Only 25% of NBers aged 24 or under speak French at home.

Only 16 of the 49 ridings are considered Francophone-majority - another number which will likely dip after the next round of riding redistribution. A lot of the ridings the Liberals won in Northern NB saw their elector lists drop in number this election, and the ridings are typically based on local population, dropping in most Francophone areas.

It's only going to become easier for parties like PA and PC to gear their campaigns more towards Anglophone voters and interests as the linguistic totals shift and change. Their numbers are increasing or staying relatively flat in most areas.

[NB_ExistsToo]

Originally Posted by JHikka

~27-28% of NBers speak French at home, dropping every year. Will likely hit 25% in a decade. Only 25% of NBers aged 24 or under speak French at home.

Only 16 of the 49 ridings are considered Francophone-majority - another number which will likely dip after the next round of riding redistribution. A lot of the ridings the Liberals won in Northern NB saw their elector lists drop in number this election, and the ridings are typically based on local population, dropping in most Francophone areas.

Only? That's Over 30% of the population right there. I consider that pretty significant. Obviously you're just referencing the trend of decrease in Francophones, I only see benefits in ensuring NB stays as a bilingual province, and should try to maintain that as much as possible.

Overall, I am glad Green's and PA got some seats, as I dislike a two party system, which it seems a lot of NB'ers agree. It will be interesting whenever the next elections come along, I see it being bad news for Lib/Con groups, as people will stop thinking of their vote being wasted by voting for a 3rd party.

[Ammn_guy]

Is there any published truth to this statment.. as quoted below..I am curious..

Originally Posted by Franco401

Eliminating official bilingualism is a want for the PA

I only started researching the PA guys since today and it seems there is and aweful lot propaganda and misinformation out there about the PA party.

Almost seems like someone is targeting franco hatred towards them or lobbying against them..

Their official platform just states :

1.The want to remove duality in health care(all the hospitals are bilingual... so its truly a waste of money)

2. The want to provide service via the translator in predominately English areas(still protecting the right)

3. french/english people share bus's ( makes sense.. the current practice is not economically, or environmentally responsible in some cases)


I couldn't find any real source or hard evidance anywhere they are trying to "eradicate" bilingualism.

i am jsut trying to find the true facts.., I truly did not pay attention to the parties.. and voted in a bit of ignorance.. Are they truly anti-franco rights? (I did not vote for them.. and we are a mixed english/acadien family fully bilingual)

[MonctonRad]

I think a lot of people assume PANB = CoR, which I think is simplistic.

I get the impression that they want the practical and pragmatic application of bilingualism within the province rather than rigid dogmatism.

[Ammn_guy]

Yes I just been researching "facts"( imagine) due to the results.. .. seems like PA, PC is the most likley so was wondering about them..

Personally I think this charade with Gallant is really turning me off from the redparty or him..hes a poor loser i dont have much respect for that, especially this last grasp.. on the TAX PAYER dime.

They lost me at the free tuition program when my kids lost any hope of tuition help, cause we make slightly over the threshold... and my wife lost her remaining 2k in tuition credits. because according to libs 65 k yr / 2 salaries is middle income..(more like the working poor).

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

I think a lot of people assume PANB = CoR, which I think is simplistic.

I get the impression that they want the practical and pragmatic application of bilingualism within the province rather than rigid dogmatism.

[MonctonRad]

Yes, the free tuition program is poorly thought out.

It sounds good, but is overly simplistic and unfairly penalizes a lot of people just over the threshold (or if you have 4-5 kids rather than one, or if you live in an area of the province without a university and you are burdened with living expenses as well as tuition).

If you have one kid, you live down the street from a university and make $60K, you can make out like a bandit. If you make $80k, but have 4 kids and you live in the Miramichi, then you're screwed.

If they want to make tuition free, then make it free for everyone as a universal social program. Otherwise, return to the previous system of student loan relief for NBers who remain in the province after graduation to work. This at least helps to stimulate our economy and is fair to everyone........

[Photo1]

[QUOTE=Ammn_guy;8325860]Personally I think this charade with Gallant is really turning me off from the redparty or him..hes a poor loser i dont have much respect for that, especially this last grasp.. on the TAX PAYER dime.
/QUOTE]

How is he being a sore loser...PC's got one more seat, Liberals got more votes essentially it's a wash...this is "exactly" how our system works. It's because it hasn't happened in 100 years that people forget that.

"New Brunswick's lieutenant-governor on Tuesday gave Premier Brian Gallant permission to continue governing the province while the Liberals try to win the confidence of the legislature with fewer seats than his main opponent." ~ CBC

First Gallant must choose a new speaker of the house, and then there would be a throne speech. At the end of that throne speech there would be a confidence vote in the legislature. If he loses that vote, the lieutenant-governor could then ask PC Leader Blaine Higgs to form a government rather than trigger a new election, which is also a possibility.

This is based of the British system of government which we have always followed and this is "exactly" what is supposed to happen, Gallant realized that instantly last night thus his statement about the Liberals forming government.

Personally I'm just glad to see 'other voices' in the legislature, it's about damn time that it's not all red and blue. Dang the NDP got stomped though.

[David_99]

Originally Posted by Photo1

Personally I'm just glad to see 'other voices' in the legislature, it's about damn time that it's not all red and blue. Dang the NDP got stomped though.

After the rises of Donald Trump and Doug Ford, I personally refuse to vote for anyone right-of-centre for the foreseeable future. Benign as they may seem, even Higgs, if every province votes in a "Benign Conservative", IMO, it opens the door for Canada to elect a potentially dangerous PM.

[Feneant]

Originally Posted by Ammn_guy

I only started researching the PA guys since today and it seems there is and aweful lot propaganda and misinformation out there about the PA party.

Almost seems like someone is targeting franco hatred towards them or lobbying against them..

Thank you for doing your research. I am a francophone who has voted for the PA in the past 2 elections and a number of people I tell that to look at me in disgust. Then I ask if they've actually done any research into the PA platform and every time it turns out they've never looked at any of it and just respond with some variation of 'Oh well they hate the french!'.

It's kind of scary actually, if voters did some research before running out to vote for the historical parties of their riding or families we might have very different results.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by David_99

After the rises of Donald Trump and Doug Ford, I personally refuse to vote for anyone right-of-centre for the foreseeable future. Benign as they may seem, even Higgs, if every province votes in a "Benign Conservative", IMO, it opens the door for Canada to elect a potentially dangerous PM.

I respect you decision David, and nobody should be berated for their political views.

It should be remembered however that tyranny and oppression lie on both the left and right sides of the political spectrum and that balance can only be found in the middle. Right wing voices are therefore just as valid as left wing voices, as they help to prevent the tipping of the balance into dangerous extremes (intolerably high taxes, runaway political correctness, overly officious and petty bureaucracy, oppression of small business etc).

Both the Jedi and the Sith are ultimately doomed. The Gray Knights are the path to the future........

[Sunnybrae]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Both the Jedi and the Sith are ultimately doomed. The Gray Knights are the path to the future........

Brilliant!

[Sunnybrae]

Originally Posted by Feneant

Thank you for doing your research. I am a francophone who has voted for the PA in the past 2 elections and a number of people I tell that to look at me in disgust. Then I ask if they've actually done any research into the PA platform and every time it turns out they've never looked at any of it and just respond with some variation of 'Oh well they hate the french!'.

It's kind of scary actually, if voters did some research before running out to vote for the historical parties of their riding or families we might have very different results.

Excellent post. I heard a lot of BS on CBC radio yesterday about the PA. As soon as someone mentions modifying bilingualism, your automatically labeled as trying to destroy Acadian culture. My family is mixed French/English like a lot of families in Moncton and we get so tired of extremists hiding behind "culture" as a defense mechanism. Segregation has created the political map we see now.