BLS: Massive Job Losses in All Major Metros; Fresno, Tuscon and Tulsa have fewest

[dimondpark]

April 2019-April 2020 Job Growth:
-26,100 Fresno -7.2%
-33,600 Tucson -8.6%
-37,000 Tulsa -8.0%
-42,900 Birmingham -7.9%
-57,400 Oklahoma City -8.7%
-58,900 Salt Lake City -7.8%
-64,400 Memphis -9.9%
-66,000 Richmond -9.6%
-74,100 -Virginia Beach 9.3%
-89,700 Raleigh -13.9%
-93,200 San Antonio -8.7%
-99,900 New Orleans -17.0%
-100,500 Austin -9.1%
-103,800 Rochester -19.1%
-104,600 Providence -17.5%
-109,600 Louisville -16.3%
-110,600 Milwaukee -12.7%
-114,800 Buffalo -20.3%
-115,700 Kansas City -10.6%
-118,600 Indianapolis -10.9%
-123,400 San Jose -10.8%
-123,800 Nashville -11.9%
-129,300 Tampa -9.4%
-138,200 Grand Rapids -24.4%
-140,100 Columbus -12.7%
-143,900 Sacramento -14.2%
-148,800 Riverside -9.7%
-150,700 Denver -9.9%
-152,100 Portland -12.5%
-160,800 St Louis -11.5%
-162,200 Charlotte -13.2%
-164,000 Phoenix -7.6%
-164,900 Cincinnati -14.8%
-180,800 Cleveland -16.8%
-181,000 Orlando -13.6%
-190,200 Baltimore -13.4%
-199,200 San Diego -13.2%
-204,500 Pittsburgh -17.1%
-213,700 Las Vegas -20.7%
-265,700 Houston -8.5%
-267,200 Atlanta -9.4%
-271,100 Minneapolis -13.4%
-283,000 Dallas -7.6%
-301,000 Washington -9.0%
-301,600 Seattle -14.5%
-349,700 San Francisco -14.2%
-358,100 Miami -13.1%
-457,400 Philadelphia -15.4%
-467,700 Boston -16.7%
-497,100 Detroit -24.5%
-610,900 Chicago -12.9%
-916,200 Los Angeles -14.7%
-1,949,600 New York -19.6%



https://www.bls.gov/news.release/metro.t03.htm

[Crawford]

Fabulous numbers.

I remember someone pontificating about "American carnage". Guess he was right.

[suburbanite]

2 million jobs in New York is insane. How many small restaurants already feeling pressure from rising rents/other costs will just never come back. What will take their place in an increasingly difficult bricks-and-mortar retail environment? I fear we may have just injected steroids into the further decline of independent restaurants in favour of the more well-capitalized national chains.

[dave8721]

The areas that lost the most and the least are pretty predictable. Government and Tech areas lost the least. Tourism and Factory towns lost the most. I would have thought that Miami and Orlando would have had more losses. Is this people who lost their jobs or people receiving unemployment? I know Florida has had all kinds of issues and most who lost their jobs either had a long delay or never received unemployment. Also, for Orlando, Disney "furloughed" all their employees so I guess they never technically lost their jobs. They just got no pay for a few months.

[TWAK]

I wonder how much the building of HSR and other associated projects (freeway realignment, overpasses, ect) is impacting the numbers for Fresno.

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by dave8721

I would have thought that Miami and Orlando would have had more losses.

Just wait. These are April numbers, and FL closed later than most states. I can't imagine a tourist-dependent state like FL won't have heavy losses, at least temporarily.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by suburbanite

2 million jobs in New York is insane. How many small restaurants already feeling pressure from rising rents/other costs will just never come back. What will take their place in an increasingly difficult bricks-and-mortar retail environment? I fear we may have just injected steroids into the further decline of independent restaurants in favour of the more well-capitalized national chains.

I think restaurants will struggle while this crisis is ongoing, but New York is not a chain restaurant dining city. Even if all of the current restaurants failed, a bunch of new restaurants would take their places (and likely be run by the same people).

[The North One]

A lot of states have literally just opened up a day ago or will be open in the next week (New York opens June 13th right?)

I wouldn't put too much stock in non-adjusted numbers in the worst month of the corona crisis. Sales and activity is already WAY better than what was predicted for May.

I also wonder how the riots will impact Minneapolis which saw the worst destruction by far just now.

[BnaBreaker]

I guess America is officially great again now.

[JManc]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

I think restaurants will struggle while this crisis is ongoing, but New York is not a chain restaurant dining city. Even if all of the current restaurants failed, a bunch of new restaurants would take their places (and likely be run by the same people).

Unless they have a lot of capital or backing or at the very least, a huge demand which goes back to the former, I don't see how.

[Yuri]

Tragic. Meanwhile European job market passed almost unscathed.

This model where workers a disposable are definitely not healthy. People living from paycheck to paycheck. No wonder US life expectancy are so low, overdose deaths soaring.

[dimondpark]

Originally Posted by BnaBreaker

I guess America is officially great again now.

All this 'winning' is giving an ulcer

[The North One]

You guys act like this wouldn't have happened under any other president...

If you're going to criticize Trump it's for putting lives at risk and causing more death not so much the economy tanking for a short period of time because of the stay at home orders.

[jd3189]

So many of the problems the US faces as compared to Europe are self-inflicted. All to just maintain this “freedom from government” while the government still controls people in more sinister ways...

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by JManc

Unless they have a lot of capital or backing or at the very least, a huge demand which goes back to the former, I don't see how.

Let me put it this way... There is so much demand for unique dining experiences in New York City that it would be unfathomable for the city to ever become a restaurant desert. That would probably mean that NYC has collapsed.

There has been pressure on the restaurant industry in NYC in recent years due to competition for commercial space with non-adjacent (i.e. higher margin) industries , especially in Manhattan, but restaurants are adapting. They are surviving by sharing space in the form of food halls, moving to cheaper locations, etc. But the demand is still there and will be there until the apocalypse.

[Crawford]

The pandemic has been horrific for independent restaurants. But in a scenario where they all closed, they would all be replaced, because the demand hasn't changed.

And there are very few restaurant chains outside of Manhattan. We have Chipotle, Five Guys, Starbucks (if that counts) and that's about it. Probably at least 200 neighborhood independent restaurants.

[The North One]

I don't think the restaurant apocalypse will be nearly as bad as people prophesied. People are already going right back to their usual behavior. But with local governments lifting many restrictions this may be a golden age of outdoor seating.

[JManc]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

Let me put it this way... There is so much demand for unique dining experiences in New York City that it would be unfathomable for the city to ever become a restaurant desert. That would probably mean that NYC has collapsed.

There has been pressure on the restaurant industry in NYC in recent years due to competition for commercial space with non-adjacent (i.e. higher margin) industries , especially in Manhattan, but restaurants are adapting. They are surviving by sharing space in the form of food halls, moving to cheaper locations, etc. But the demand is still there and will be there until the apocalypse.

I get all that. I'm pretty familiar with NY's food scene but my point still stands. You need capital and a lot of it to start (and run) a restaurant especially in a place like NY where it's already hyper competitive and expensive. Unless you have lot of financial backing, it's a tough industry to break into.

[suburbanite]

Restaurant demand is going to be more dependent on a vaccine, then just a general reopening. Until you can get a 1,000 SF space packed to the brim 5 nights a week, the financial prospects of opening a small restaurant are dim.

I don't doubt there will always be a strong independent restaurant scene in a city like NY, but the recovery may be slower than people think. I was thinking more also about the long-term implications, when long-standing restaurateurs see that decades of incremental growth can be wiped out in a couple weeks at the government's whim.

[mhays]

Originally Posted by yuriandrade

Tragic. Meanwhile European job market passed almost unscathed.

This model where workers a disposable are definitely not healthy. People living from paycheck to paycheck. No wonder US life expectancy are so low, overdose deaths soaring.

This bears repeating. Europe has supported people far better, while also reducing infections and new deaths far more quickly.