Euro Zone Booming !

[Mercutio]

Originally Posted by Fabb

During the first and second quarters of 2006, the growth of the Eurozone was closer to 4%. It qualifies as a boom and you know that.

The annual GDP growth forecasts (ie including quarters 1 and 2) for the major Eurozone economies are in the range 2 to 2.5%. I think that's encouraging given the years of stagnation beforehand - a modest recovery - but I don't think it's enough to be called a "boom". Britain's economy is forecast to grow at 2.5-3% but I wouldn't call that a boom unless it's sustained growth at 3%+.

[Fabb]

Originally Posted by Mercutio

The annual GDP growth forecasts (ie including quarters 1 and 2) for the major Eurozone economies are in the range 2 to 2.5%.

That's a lie.

Eurozone 2006 GDP growth expected at 2.7%

Wednesday, November 15, 2006 12:38:29 PM ET
ING Financial Markets

LONDON, November 15 (newratings.com) – Analyst Erik Sonntag of ING Financial Markets expects the Eurozone to post its GDP growth at 2.7% for the current year, marking three successive quarters of above-potential growth.

In a research note published this morning, the analyst mentions that according to the flash estimate of the Eurostat, GDP growth in the Eurozone rose 0.5% sequentially during 3Q06, which is marginally above the potential. The Eurozone has witnessed a robust start to 4Q06, in view of the economic sentiment indicator having reached the highest level in five years during October, the analyst says. ING Financial Markets believes that the GDP growth in the Eurozone would be above potential in 4Q06 as well.

[jef]

The consensus is indeed in the range 2-2.5% in the euro area and this cannot be referred to as a "boom". It is just close to the long-term average growth rate.

[Fabb]

Originally Posted by jef

The consensus is indeed in the range 2-2.5% in the euro area

It's not.



Besides, the data for the 3rd quarter are going to be revised upward. I'll be there when it happens within a month.

[jef]

Fabb, yes indeed, in the range 1.9%-2.6%.

[austin356]

Originally Posted by pricemazda

America has been following a Keynesian economic policy for years, expanisionist budgets during economic slowdowns, tax cuts during slowdowns.

The fact is without Keynes the very concept of 'managing' an economy wouldn't have happened.

Keynes believed as has been proved right, that capitalism left unchecked will collapse.

HAHAHAHAHA. The most successful economy of the second half of the 20th century, was one in which the government didnt even compile economic statistics.

Left unchecked collapse? LOL


Oh, and the budget expansions, and tax cuts would have occurred without a recession and were all political.
And Keynesian micromanagement died in America 27 years ago.
I would know since I am in the business and follow every fed statement, report, speech, and decision.



And booming? Over 4% for developed and over 8% for undeveloped nations is booming, anything less is just at grade growth. Dont get me wrong, 2% is good news, especially with little population growth. Europe growing at 2% adds more production in a year than India does when it grows at 8%.

[Fabb]

Originally Posted by jef

Fabb, yes indeed, in the range 1.9%-2.6%.

You can't read this chart, can you ?

Never mind. Time will tell.

[Mercutio]

Originally Posted by Fabb

That's a lie.

Ahem....



The major Eurozone economies are forecast for annual GDP growth of 2 to 2.5% exactly as I said - except for Italy which can't even manage 2%. That's not a boom. France's growth in Q3 was 0%. Admittedly that follows high growth in Q2 but no kind of boom has growth for even one quarter at 0%. I don't consider Britain to be booming even though the economy grew at an annualised rate of 2.8% in Q3 (and over the last four quarters) and is forecast for 2.6% for the year. Other major developed world economies on that chart such as the United States (3.3%), Canada (2.8%), Australia (2.7%), Japan (2.7%) are also forecast to grow faster than the major Eurozone economies in 2006.

[Fabb]

What's wrong with you ?
The Euro zone is not reduced to France, Italy or Germany.

Is that what people believe ? The chart has a line that refers to the Euro zone and it reads 2.6 percent in 2006.

Who cares about the details ? Of course, some members have a higher growth (Spain, Ireland, Finland, Greece, Austria... ) than others.

In any integrated economy, I guess that some regions grow faster than others.

It's a fact that the US economy is slowing down, and the economy of the Euro Zone is gaining momentum. If you don't like the world "booming", that's your problem. What's important is the current growth rate with respect to the potential growth rate. The Euro Zone is doing more than OK.

[jef]

VW has announced today that they fire 4,000 jobs in Brussels - where I am currently based.

Do not tell these people the euro economy is "booming".

PS: Monkey is one of the most valuable and respected forumer.

[pricemazda]

He isn't he is like a dog with a bone, and never EVER wrong. He will carry on arguing until everyone is dead just to prove he is more intelligent than everyone combined.

You obviously haven't read one of his 'Economist based sessions'.

[CHapp]

I beg to differ.

[austin356]

(Germans)

How does it feel not to be able to find a job?

The Stats are saying Europe's largest economy needs to pull an Ireland. Yes, it can be done. And yes you can have 6% GDP growth.

[Fabb]

By Sandrine Rastello

Nov. 22 (Bloomberg) -- French consumer spending on manufactured goods rose in October after unemployment fell to a five-year low.

Such spending, which accounts for about 15 percent of the economy, increased 0.9 percent from September, when it dropped a revised 2.5 percent, Insee, the Paris-based national statistics office, reported today. Economists expected a 1 percent gain, according to the median of 27 estimates in a Bloomberg survey.

Consumers have sustained the economy's expansion as investment slowed and exports fell, partly because unemployment dropped to 8.8 percent in September, the lowest since October 2001 and oil prices slid. Even after recording no growth in the three months through September, Europe's third-largest economy this year is headed for the fastest expansion since 2000.

``Consumption should stay strong through Christmas,'' said Paul Guest, chief European economist at Moody's Economy.com, a London-based consultancy. ``Consumer confidence has gone up from last spring, unemployment is down, oil prices have gone down. There's a little more money to spend there.''

The spending increase was led by a 1.1 percent gain in car sales and a 1.5 percent advance in textile and leather goods. French car and light-truck sales jumped 12 percent last month, the national carmakers association said.

The September spending figure was revised from a decline of 2.7 percent.

Tax Cuts

Falling oil prices may be helping consumers, who also will see the first effects of an income-tax reduction in the first quarter. Crude has declined about 25 percent from the record $78.40 a barrel on July 14. Crude oil for January delivery traded at about $60 today.

Prime Minister Dominique de Villepin's government geared its 2007 budget toward consumer spending before presidential elections. The plan includes almost 6 billion euros ($7.7 billion) in tax cuts, rebates and measures to buoy spending.

The consumer may continue to underpin growth in the coming quarters, said Nicolas Sobczak, a Paris-based economist at Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

``The situation could turn more problematic for France at the end of 2007,'' Sobczak said. `` By that time the support from the housing market will have disappeared.''

After rising more than 10 percent a year since 1999 and more than 15 percent in the past two years, French house prices are likely to flatten out by the end of next year, he said. The strength of the market has helped push spending on home- equipment goods, which last month surged 19 percent from a year earlier.

To contact the reporter responsible for this story: Sandrine Rastello in Paris srastello@bloomberg.net

[Mercutio]

Originally Posted by Fabb

What's wrong with you? The Euro zone is not reduced to France, Italy or Germany.

But in post 81 I specifically referred to "the major Eurozone economies" (ie Germany, France, and Italy) and gave their annual growth forecast as in the range 2 to 2.5%. I was right. That was not a lie (as you accused me in post 82). It was factually correct aside from Italy which is forecast for slower growth at 1.7% in 2006.

Originally Posted by Fabb

It's a fact that the US economy is slowing down, and the economy of the Euro Zone is gaining momentum. If you don't like the world "booming", that's your problem. What's important is the current growth rate with respect to the potential growth rate. The Euro Zone is doing more than OK.

Like I said before the improvement is encouraging given the years of stagnation beforehand - a modest recovery - but I don't think it's enough to be called a "boom". What about the fact that other developed economies such as Britain, United States, Canada, Australia, and Japan are all growing faster? Are they all "booming" too? And gloating over the US does seem a little premature given that the US is forecast for 3.3% growth in 2006 - significantly more than the Eurozone.

[Mercutio]

Originally Posted by pricemazda

He isn't he is like a dog with a bone, and never EVER wrong. He will carry on arguing until everyone is dead just to prove he is more intelligent than everyone combined.

Originally Posted by pricemazda

You obviously haven't read one of his 'Economist based sessions'.

I don't see what's wrong with the Economist. It's one of the most respected publications around. Its views are centrist and mainstream - hardly anything to get upset about - unless of course your own views are somewhat marginal or extreme.

Originally Posted by CHapp

I beg to differ.

Originally Posted by Jef

PS: Monkey is one of the most valuable and respected forumer.

[Fabb]

10.25.2006, 06:00 AM

MUNICH (AFX) - The Ifo institute said its business climate index for Germany rose to 105.3 in October from 104.9 in September, beating expectations and indicating the country's economic expansion will continue into next year.

Economists polled by AFX News had expected the index to decline to 104.5.

The business assessment index, which measures current conditions, grew to 111.8 in October from 111.3 in September. Economists were looking for a more modest increase to 111.5.

The forward-looking business expectations index improved for the first time in three months, rising to 99.2 from 98.9 and beating economists' expectations for a decline to 97.9.

'These survey results indicate that the economic expansion will continue despite the increase in VAT next year,' Ifo president Hans-Werner Sinn said.

Businesses in the manufacturing sector were more confident about the six-month outlook than in September, Sinn said, adding their export expectations were also more favourable.

In the construction industry, the business climate improved minimally as companies were slightly more positive about the current situation, while expectations about the next six months were similar to last month.

In wholesaling, businesses were clearly more positive than in September - both with regard to the current situation and the business outlook, Sinn said.

Retailers were also more upbeat about their current business situation, though their six-month outlook was 'clearly more pessimistic'.

[Mercutio]

Meanwhile Greman growth has slowed to err.... 2 to 2.5%:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/6176392.stm

[Nexus6]

2.5% growth for 2006 is not a slowdown but a significant acceleration over the 0.9% Germany reported in 2005. You mixed that up with the Q3 numbers which were down from Q2. But Q2 was an unusually strong quarter due to the football world cup and nobody expected that performance to continue.

[Nexus6]

Originally Posted by Mercutio

And gloating over the US does seem a little premature given that the US is forecast for 3.3% growth in 2006 - significantly more than the Eurozone.

You see, the very nature of a downturn is that forecasts have to be constantly revised to the downside (US government just cut the forecast to now 3.1%*). And there are plenty of dangers (too much liquidity, high wages, housing) for the US economy which make it believable to many market participants that this trend of surprises to the downside will continue in 2007 and lead to a hard landing instead of the hoped for soft one. In the Eurozone in contrast numbers for the most part come in better than forecast which is a typical sign for an upturn. I.e. the IMF has upgraded German growth forecast for 2006 from 2.0 to now 2.5%**.

*= http://www.fin24.co.za/articles/comp...8-1783_2034160
**= http://futures.fxstreet.com/Futures/...18a80f08-31283