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  #1  
Old Posted Jan 18, 2021, 8:00 PM
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How The Zoom Boom Is Changing The West

How The Zoom Boom Is Changing The West


Jan. 1, 2021

By Jonathan Thompson

Read More: https://www.hcn.org/issues/53.1/info...nging-the-west

Quote:
.....

Zoom towns are scattered across the United States, but the most popular ones seem to be small- to mid-sized, amenity-rich communities, with plenty of public land nearby, from Bend, Oregon, to Flagstaff, Arizona, along with a whole bunch of best-place-to-live-list towns. In most cases, their real estate markets were already overheated. But they exploded in the wake of the pandemic’s first wave, driving home prices to astronomical levels and putting homeownership even further out of reach for the typical working-class person.

- The telecommuter-migration is just one of many reasons behind the current real estate craze. Rock-bottom interest rates have also contributed, along with wealthy investors seeking refuges during tumultuous times. “It’s clear that many buyers are being driven out of large cities by both COVID-19 and civil unrest,” wrote the authors of the Jackson Hole Report, regarding the recent uptick in homes priced over $3 million. “Most have been contemplating a move for some time, and felt that now was the right time.” — The housing market went berserk in the third quarter of 2020, and the median home price shot up to about twice the amount that a median-income earner could afford. Meanwhile, economic development officials are trying to figure out what to do with a giant, empty office building. One option: Convert it into affordable housing.

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A new construction project in Gunnison, Colorado that includes 76 rental units that will have income restrictions. Inventory of available homes during the pandemic has been very low in desirable rural counties in the Western U.S. during the pandemic.

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  #2  
Old Posted Jan 19, 2021, 12:55 AM
Manitopiaaa Manitopiaaa is offline
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I thought the appeal of moving to a small rural town was cheap cost of living. Otherwise, what's the purpose of leaving those unaffordable big cities to pay $1 million to live in the sticks?
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Old Posted Jan 19, 2021, 12:56 AM
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I thought the appeal of moving to a small rural town was cheap cost of living. Otherwise, what's the purpose of leaving those unaffordable big cities to pay $1 million to live in the sticks?
More land?
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  #4  
Old Posted Jan 19, 2021, 1:15 AM
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Most of these places are hardly rural towns. They're places with big city amenities but close to ski resorts, hiking trails, amazing scenery, etc (speaking as someone who bought a place in Teton County, WY almost 15 years ago when it was just on the verge of transitioning from semi-rural town to Aspen v2).
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Old Posted Jan 19, 2021, 1:28 AM
llamaorama llamaorama is offline
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This is what I warned about in the other thread about remote work.

In a services based economy, people who would have otherwise lived in more affordable cities will feel compelled by the need to obtain a job to move to these places despite them being rather punishing places to live for people who are working class. Also as they build more and more stuff these towns and the natural environments around them are going to be transformed in a way nobody really wants.

The sad irony is that if gloomy predictions about remote work and people moving come true, the kind of places that become their best self when they are bustling and populous(cities) will lose people while the kind of places whose character and soul dies when they get crowded and gentrified(small quaint or natural towns or rural areas) are going to get overpopulated.

The final outcome is then something that makes nobody happy.
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Old Posted Jan 19, 2021, 1:29 AM
Buckeye Native 001 Buckeye Native 001 is offline
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Flagstaff sure as hell isnt cheap and the amount of people moving here from out of state (especially California) is driving up the cost of living and causing a housing shortage, where not even the locals can find a place without getting into bidding wars against people for whom a $350-$400k house/townhouse is a steal compared to the Bay Area and Southern California. Hell, even metro Phoenix is becoming unaffordable.

Basically "California prices at Arizona wages." Arizona is a notoriously poor state with a shitty social safety net (politically, we're usually Kansas, with better scenery). Technically, we're a "taker state" (get more money back than what we send to the feds in taxes) but at least 40% of the state's land is federally owned.

I know, I know, my gf and I should uproot ourselves and move somewhere cheaper because nobody has a right to live wherever they want.
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Old Posted Jan 19, 2021, 4:29 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by llamaorama View Post
This is what I warned about in the other thread about remote work.

In a services based economy, people who would have otherwise lived in more affordable cities will feel compelled by the need to obtain a job to move to these places despite them being rather punishing places to live for people who are working class. Also as they build more and more stuff these towns and the natural environments around them are going to be transformed in a way nobody really wants.

The sad irony is that if gloomy predictions about remote work and people moving come true, the kind of places that become their best self when they are bustling and populous(cities) will lose people while the kind of places whose character and soul dies when they get crowded and gentrified(small quaint or natural towns or rural areas) are going to get overpopulated.

The final outcome is then something that makes nobody happy.
It's a crazy trend for sure. I feel like there is some of this happening in Denver right now. Our prices were going up prior to the pandemic, but they kept going up even faster this past year. That to me says folks from the coastal areas are coming in.

One has to wonder how much of a long-term trend this is though. These areas are fun for the first couple years as you spend your time exploring the natural scenery, hiking, skiing, etc. But, unless you are a hardcore outdoorsy person, it might begin to wear off and you suddenly find yourself missing SF/LA/NYC for the culture, etc.

Maybe I am wrong though.... I personally feel like Denver COI isn't worth it anymore for me, now that I can work remotely long term. I might be the anomaly that is looking in the opposite direction of heading to a bigger city (Chicago) since I value the city culture more than the slopes.
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  #8  
Old Posted Jan 19, 2021, 4:43 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Buckeye Native 001 View Post
Flagstaff sure as hell isnt cheap and the amount of people moving here from out of state (especially California) is driving up the cost of living and causing a housing shortage, where not even the locals can find a place without getting into bidding wars against people for whom a $350-$400k house/townhouse is a steal compared to the Bay Area and Southern California. Hell, even metro Phoenix is becoming unaffordable.

Basically "California prices at Arizona wages." Arizona is a notoriously poor state with a shitty social safety net (politically, we're usually Kansas, with better scenery). Technically, we're a "taker state" (get more money back than what we send to the feds in taxes) but at least 40% of the state's land is federally owned.

I know, I know, my gf and I should uproot ourselves and move somewhere cheaper because nobody has a right to live wherever they want.
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/9...11952555_zpid/

This isn't too bad... but you're right. This is more expensive than I thought it would be. It's also literally in the middle of nowhere.
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  #9  
Old Posted Jan 19, 2021, 5:49 PM
Buckeye Native 001 Buckeye Native 001 is offline
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I know exactly where that is (Doney Park). $700,000 and you only get two bathrooms? Ridiculous. Unless youre an executive at Gore or are a tenured professor at NAU, that's way out of the price range for most Flagstaffians. I work for the county and my gf works at the hospital and even $300,000 is pushing it for us.

It's not even technically in the City of Flagstaff and it's insanely windy out there. You're also at least 15-20 minutes from amenities aside from convenience stores.

Last edited by Buckeye Native 001; Jan 19, 2021 at 6:05 PM.
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  #10  
Old Posted Jan 19, 2021, 6:58 PM
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It's an interesting trend for sure. Places like Harrisburg, PA are benefitting from this but then losing the point of what it is: it's not that affordable anymore and does not have the culture of a big city but now has all of the downsides such as traffic, getting overcrowded in spots, losing beautiful land to more sprawl...

I have to admit that I am being tempted to move closer to family because right now what's the point of living in a big city when you are isolated most of the time and not able to enjoy what makes big city living great? At least I would be closer to family and some old friends. But the other side of the coin is that once life returns to "normal" I will be bored in no time and probably looking to get out again.
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Old Posted Jan 20, 2021, 2:44 AM
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This is going on everywhere. Millennials finally aging into home-buying + people moving to secondary cities for covid-related reasons + low supply = skyrocketing prices.

Here in Birmingham—which isn’t close to an Austin, Nashville, or Denver—prices are up 50% in the past 5 years and 15% in the past year alone. In the trendier hoods, you’ll see places like this: https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/2...ource=txtshare

Fortunately, in the farther-out burbs (~25 mins from downtown, so really not *that* bad), you can find relatively affordable places from the mid-200s. For now.
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  #12  
Old Posted Jan 20, 2021, 6:52 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Manitopiaaa View Post
I thought the appeal of moving to a small rural town was cheap cost of living. Otherwise, what's the purpose of leaving those unaffordable big cities to pay $1 million to live in the sticks?
Kind of hard to replicate the scenery of Teton County, people pay for it. Plus these are all 2nd and 3rd vacation homes of the super wealthy.
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Old Posted Jan 20, 2021, 10:49 AM
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This is happening everywhere. In Asheville since the start of the pandemic, the median price of a house has jumped by nearly $75,000, and the "living wage" as calculated by what it would take to afford those rising housing costs has jumped by $2 to more than $17 an hour... In a city where the actual average wage is less than $10 an hour.

When my husband and I started trying to buy a house we looked first in Asheville and found that with what we were approved for, we could buy a singlewide trailer in Buncombe County or, if we were willing to live on the very farthest fringes of the county, we might be able to afford a doublewide trailer. That's when we started looking elsewhere, and discovered that one way or another we were going to have move about an hour away to find anything. An hour to the north, west, or east put you in the sticks, but an hour to the south puts you in Greenville, SC, the mini-Atlanta. So that's where we went, and that's where we bagged a two-story, four-bedroom house for the same money that would have gotten us a trailer in Buncombe County (and nothing at all inside the city limits of Asheville).

Thanks to people fleeing big cities and looking for smaller cities with big-city amenities, the only places near Asheville that are even remotely affordable anymore are the town of Woodfin and the town of Canton. Woodfin because it's where the sewage treatment plant is and the place stinks, and Canton because there's a paper mill there that blankets the entire area -- and sometimes if the wind is right, even as far as West Asheville -- with the aroma of fresh, piping hot fart.

It's really a sad situation. The pandemic has exploded towns that were already unaffordable, and just accelerated the rise of housing costs to the point that normal people just cannot afford to live anywhere close to their jobs. It's one thing to just come to play in a resort town, but it's another to have to work there and try to afford to live there on the crap wages, and where even the shittiest fixer-upper costs hundreds of thousands of dollars.
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Old Posted Jan 20, 2021, 2:01 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hauntedheadnc View Post
This is happening everywhere. In Asheville since the start of the pandemic, the median price of a house has jumped by nearly $75,000, and the "living wage" as calculated by what it would take to afford those rising housing costs has jumped by $2 to more than $17 an hour... In a city where the actual average wage is less than $10 an hour.

When my husband and I started trying to buy a house we looked first in Asheville and found that with what we were approved for, we could buy a singlewide trailer in Buncombe County or, if we were willing to live on the very farthest fringes of the county, we might be able to afford a doublewide trailer. That's when we started looking elsewhere, and discovered that one way or another we were going to have move about an hour away to find anything. An hour to the north, west, or east put you in the sticks, but an hour to the south puts you in Greenville, SC, the mini-Atlanta. So that's where we went, and that's where we bagged a two-story, four-bedroom house for the same money that would have gotten us a trailer in Buncombe County (and nothing at all inside the city limits of Asheville).

Thanks to people fleeing big cities and looking for smaller cities with big-city amenities, the only places near Asheville that are even remotely affordable anymore are the town of Woodfin and the town of Canton. Woodfin because it's where the sewage treatment plant is and the place stinks, and Canton because there's a paper mill there that blankets the entire area -- and sometimes if the wind is right, even as far as West Asheville -- with the aroma of fresh, piping hot fart.

It's really a sad situation. The pandemic has exploded towns that were already unaffordable, and just accelerated the rise of housing costs to the point that normal people just cannot afford to live anywhere close to their jobs. It's one thing to just come to play in a resort town, but it's another to have to work there and try to afford to live there on the crap wages, and where even the shittiest fixer-upper costs hundreds of thousands of dollars.
I wonder what's going to happen when some of these companies reverse course and start wanting people back into the office again. If you moved 1.5 hours away from your job and then they suddenly say yeah we need you back in here 3+ days a week, that is going to cause some issues.
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Old Posted Jan 20, 2021, 3:09 PM
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Yeah, I hope these communities are planning for the end of the pandemic. Temporary blip.

Also, this article, and the comments are conflating two separate issues. There has been a remote work boom, and there has been a pandemic-era RE boom, but they usually aren't related.

Exurban Detroit has had a big runup in prices, but it isn't because SF techies are moving to Michigan sprawl, it's because professionals and the markets have done well during the pandemic, no one is putting their home on the market, and interest rates are at record lows. This will fade.
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