DENVER | Main Development Thread #7

[BG918]

Originally Posted by wong21fr

GT isn't meant for the average American. It's meant for the those in the top quintile who can afford such a rent level while still having disposable income. If a household isn't pulling ~$118K, they probably shouldn't be in the area.

A lot of tech jobs being created in Denver pay that or more for a single person. Add a partner/spouse also in the professional sector and you quickly get to $200k+. There are LOTS of these types living in urban Denver, and they are the ones filling these new highrises.

[wong21fr]

Originally Posted by BG918

A lot of tech jobs being created in Denver pay that or more for a single person. Add a partner/spouse also in the professional sector and you quickly get to $200k+. There are LOTS of these types living in urban Denver, and they are the ones filling these new highrises.

For sure. Those are the top quintile earners and 20% of 300K (approximate number of Denver households) does make for lots of potential occupants.

It does indicate that Denver's urban environment is likely going to end up as an upper middle-class playground, as Bunt has derided, but that's the way things are trending and a downswing in that trend isn't likely to be too dramatic.

[SirLucasTheGreat]

Originally Posted by tommyboy733

Junction25, Warehouse > Office Conversion

IMG_20190820_094853688_HDR by Tom Conley, on Flickr

~3200 Brighton, another industrial > office conversion. Yumm look at the brick!

IMG_20190820_110233075_HDR by Tom Conley, on Flickr

Rev360. Elevator cores are topped out

IMG_20190820_101914521_HDR by Tom Conley, on Flickr

IMG_20190820_095354094_HDR by Tom Conley, on Flickr

IMG_20190820_095434864 by Tom Conley, on Flickr


The HUB Phase II is topped out.

IMG_20190820_095832505_HDR by Tom Conley, on Flickr

This project is on a sliver between Blake and the RR tracks, just north of 35th Street (which ends at Blake). I believe its five story condo but can't remember the details. (NOT the big res tower one block away with the crane, working on the first basement/ground level, couldn't get a satisfactory pic)

IMG_20190820_100750103 by Tom Conley, on Flickr

This is the 32nd- 33rd & larimer ish full block resdiential building. The brick is very attractive, some ornamentation. I think this will be an attractive project. The parking partially covered or descreet and from the angles I saw. It has a good mass with different setbacks to break it up, not a "landscraper", etc. I think its turning out to one of the better residential projects by appearance.

IMG_20190820_101437511_HDR by Tom Conley, on Flickr

WTC..... ***crickets****


IMG_20190820_095820309_HDR by Tom Conley, on Flickr

A lot of density going up around the station! Sooooo many other residential projects.

Thanks a lot for the pictures! I wish there was more of that ok this thread. I'll try to do my part.

[TakeFive]

Originally Posted by BG918

A lot of tech jobs being created in Denver pay that or more for a single person. Add a partner/spouse also in the professional sector and you quickly get to $200k+. There are LOTS of these types living in urban Denver, and they are the ones filling these new highrises.

So you think Amacon's timing is good?

[SnyderBock]

I find it interesting that the Zillow search doesn't show hardly any results at $1200 or less, in any of the Neighborhoods that I would ever choose to live in. Why isn't there a mix of income levels in all neighborhoods? Why do rentals at $1200 or less have to be segregated and concentrated in certain pockets nowhere near train stations? I think they severely overbuilt on luxury rental units and now the people who can afford those are buying homes in the suburbs. The people forced to live in shitty parts of the city, away from train stations and with long commutes to work are also forced to own cars. So you have to add car ownership onto rent. If these $1200 a month units were concentrated near train stations, they wouldn't have to own a car at all. Instead, the people who can afford to live near train stations, hardly even use the trains, because they own fancy BMW's, Mercedes and Crossovers. If you can afford to live near a train station, you don't need to. Furthermore, all these people renting $1200 apartments, are stuck renting, because there is a severe shortage of condo stock in the sub 250k range, which would be their price points.

Add to this the fact that the CEO's of Chase, Capital One and Discover have announced the Americans are accumulating credit card debt at rapid levels, in order to maintain their current lifestyles, so as a result they are closing inactive accounts +so they do not become active), slowing way down in credit line increases and becoming far more struck about who they approve for new lines of credit.

Plus there is that darn recession we are headed straight into. Trades wars cause recession (see warning from our government officials about the results of the last great trade war and the ensuing recession). Short term interest has eclipsed 10 year Treasury notes. A decades long run of wage growth less than half the rate of rises in cost of living and barely above the rate of inflation. Overbuilt market of Luxury homes and apartments and a shortage of affordable housing. Plus a slowing job growth sector that is about to have tens of millions of positions replaced by AI and automation, over the next decade.

I'm not trying to be an alarmist or strike fear into anyone's hearts. I have always been gifted with seeing the big picture and time and time again, everything ends up playing out just as I for saw. It is not mystical or supernatural. It is projections and forecasts produced by my brain analyzing all available data and variables, then constructing multiple sinarios that might play out, then predicting probabilities for each.

If we do not implement a universal basic income very swiftly (by Washington standards), then we will face the potential of another great depression. Especially if the trade wars persist much longer.

[vblack]

Downtown Denver parking lot eyed for 81-story building sells to different developer

[COtoOC]

Originally Posted by vblack

Downtown Denver parking lot eyed for 81-story building sells to different developer

It says the new proposal will be "a lot more realistic", so probably a 40 story box?

[laniroj]

Originally Posted by SnyderBock

If we do not implement a universal basic income very swiftly (by Washington standards), then we will face the potential of another great depression. Especially if the trade wars persist much longer.

Since you asked, I'll address the one real estate related point in your generally non-development related post. New units are expensive, period. Anything built new is expensive, period. The days of spacious and well located units in metro Denver going for $1,200/month are over, they won't return. The days of new condos all through the center city are over, they're not coming back in the near term - lenders still haven't loosened up lending requirements enough for this to happen. That said, there are still a PLETHORA of <$300k condos for sale in Cap Hill, Cheeseman, and Speer that are all located in fantastic walkable neighborhoods with decent transit - maybe you should buy one! These are facts. Yes, they are tough to face, but the old Denver many of us loved is gone and a new Denver is emerging. Hopefully, you are a part of that rising tide. If not, I'm not sure what you are doing wrong, but maybe if you make some changes you, too, can participate in it versus insisting on universal basic income and yearning for something in the rear view mirror...just sayin.

[laniroj]

Anyone else read this? Not sure if this is because the market is reaching a turning point or because nobody can get a damn permit from a municipality to build housing. Not good for housing affordability on the Front Range...those jobs are still growing and the population is still increasing. This might set us up to whether any slowdown/recession well.

https://www.denverpost.com/2019/08/2...uction-denver/

[twister244]

Originally Posted by laniroj

Since you asked, I'll address the one real estate related point in your generally non-development related post. New units are expensive, period. Anything built new is expensive, period. The days of spacious and well located units in metro Denver going for $1,200/month are over, they won't return. The days of new condos all through the center city are over, they're not coming back in the near term - lenders still haven't loosened up lending requirements enough for this to happen. That said, there are still a PLETHORA of <$300k condos for sale in Cap Hill, Cheeseman, and Speer that are all located in fantastic walkable neighborhoods with decent transit - maybe you should buy one! These are facts. Yes, they are tough to face, but the old Denver many of us loved is gone and a new Denver is emerging. Hopefully, you are a part of that rising tide. If not, I'm not sure what you are doing wrong, but maybe if you make some changes you, too, can participate in it versus insisting on universal basic income and yearning for something in the rear view mirror...just sayin.

Yeah, I tend to agree with this. Also.... if you look hard enough, you can find apartments for under $1200, they just won't be super luxurious places next to Union Station. As stated, there are PLENTY of condos at a reasonable price in Cap Hill, which is walkable, and close enough to transit. I agree that Denver has become pretty expensive, but luckily things have leveled off over the last year or so (couple years ago on the rental front). As an owner, I am ok with that as I need time to build equity and not have to worry about escalating prices. The keys going forward to make sure we implement zoning and city policies that favor housing construction on ALL levels to accommodate folks that want to live in the city. Yes, it was good to see the Coloradan bring condos to the US neighborhood when everything else was apartments. But..... those units were so absurdly expensive that I feel like it didn't really address the housing needs for most folks.

[Robert.hampton]

Originally Posted by COtoOC

It says the new proposal will be "a lot more realistic", so probably a 40 story box?

This is the developer's biggest project to date. Judging by the rest of their portfolio they aren't into daring, interesting, or exciting design.

[wong21fr]

Originally Posted by tommyboy733

A lot of density going up around the station! Sooooo many other residential projects.

Indeed. Thanks for the photo tour, it's appreciated!

[SirLucasTheGreat]

Originally Posted by Robert.hampton

This is the developer's biggest project to date. Judging by the rest of their portfolio they aren't into daring, interesting, or exciting design.

My money is on a 25 - 35 story hotel next cycle given the proximity to the convention center.

[TakeFive]

Originally Posted by laniroj

Anyone else read this? Not sure if this is because the market is reaching a turning point or because nobody can get a damn permit from a municipality to build housing. Not good for housing affordability on the Front Range...those jobs are still growing and the population is still increasing. This might set us up to whether any slowdown/recession well.

https://www.denverpost.com/2019/08/2...uction-denver/

Couple of things per the article.

End of last year we had a mini 'crash'; market cratered and interest rates popped. It gave everybody the jitters and new home builders still had inventory. Finally, finally builders aren't just looking to build for the upscale crowd; they're looking to build for more entry level product which by definition is smaller.

Purportedly the next big thing will be out by DIA; it's been a slow slog to get through planning, entitlements etc and build the necessary infrastructure. Presumably that is an area where land is more readily available and at a more affordable price.

Many builders (like Richmond) prefer to continue to build SE or NW Broomfield area where the demand is easier to deal with. Lennar has a nice 171 acre site called Murphy Creek in the vicinity of the Denver Arapahoe Disposal Site landfill and they want to make some changes to the original plan that dates to 2002. Naturally objections arise from neighbors.

To summarize there's significant ongoing planning/permitting but the availability of 'lot ready' land to build on in areas designed for better affordability is limited presently.

Originally Posted by SirLucasTheGreat

My money is on a 25 - 35 story hotel next cycle given the proximity to the convention center.

True, a hotel is right in their wheelhouse so if they're in no hurry I'd agree with you. They have done mixed use that might provide other possibilities.

[TakeFive]

Here's my drive-by contribution


Photo by Robert Delaney via Westword

Denver Art Museum Renovation on Budget, on Track for June 2020
AUGUST 21, 2019 By MICHAEL PAGLIA | Westword

The Denver Art Museum’s iconic tower, where renovations are now under way, was designed by mega modern master Gio Ponti, with James Sudler, a Denver modern master, by his side. The result, which opened in 1971, is one of the finest buildings in Colorado, right up there with Walter Netsch’s Air Force Academy Chapel (itself about to be renovated) and I. M. Pei’s National Center for Atmospheric Research. These are internationally renowned structures in our own back yard.

All of this is being overseen by designers from Denver’s Fentress Architects, who have teamed up with Machado Silvetti of Boston, tapped for its expertise. Jorge Silvetti, a principal with that firm, is a Ponti enthusiast and scholar, and his understanding of the master’s aesthetic is revealed in the careful juggling he pulled off to successfully insert an addition immediately adjacent to the front of the iconic building.

Worth the read.!.!

[TakeFive]

Ran across an interesting article in Bloomberg while watching the Rockies

Originally Posted by laniroj

Anyone else read this? Not sure if this is because the market is reaching a turning point or because nobody can get a damn permit from a municipality to build housing. Not good for housing affordability on the Front Range...those jobs are still growing and the population is still increasing. This might set us up to whether any slowdown/recession well.

Photographer: Helen H. Richardson/The Denver Post via Getty Images via Bloomberg


‘It’s Just Dirt’: Anything Goes in Today’s Muni Bond Market
August 21, 2019 By Amanda Albright - Bloomberg

Last month, a risky, new deal hit the municipal-bond market. It came from a small borrower in Colorado that was looking to finance the construction of 1,200 luxury homes in the foothills of the Rocky Mountains.

It was an odd time for such a project. Denver’s decade-long housing boom was beginning to show signs of cooling and, moreover, rival developers had already raised record sums to turn vast tracts of land into new communities. “There’s no houses to see,” said Nicholas Foley, a municipal-bond fund manager at Segall Bryant & Hamill in Denver. “It’s just dirt.”

The article goes on to discuss today's Bond Market where the search for yield is tolerating higher risk.

Back to Denver...

Foley, the Denver-based portfolio manager, was once a big buyer of tax-exempt bonds issued to build new housing developments in his booming state, but he has since stopped amid signs that the market has gotten frothy.

Last year, such Colorado land districts sold $1.3 billion in bonds, the most since at least 2005. The securities, which are typically unrated, are repaid by assessments levied on homeowners and offer few protections to investors if the housing market goes south. In the case of the Castle Rock, Colorado development, even if the district skips interest or principal payments, it won’t count as a default, limiting bondholders’ legal power to recoup some of what they’re owed.

[EngiNerd]

Originally Posted by TakeFive

Here's my drive-by contribution


Photo by Robert Delaney via Westword

Denver Art Museum Renovation on Budget, on Track for June 2020
AUGUST 21, 2019 By MICHAEL PAGLIA | Westword

Worth the read.!.!

I got to learn about those curved glass facade panels on the DAM through my company, really cool process for creating and mounting them. They are extremely expensive too, as you can probably imagine.

[TakeFive]

Comment: The hum of sprawl is in the air

Per the Bloomberg article, with record amounts of capital already raised to turn vast tracts of land into new communities it's fair to say that Sprawl has not been relegated to the waste bin. And that's Okay; in fact it's needed or will be. I'm thinking of the Denver MSA plus Boulder.

Any sprawl will have virtually no impact on downtown Denver or other inner-ring suburban areas; they will continue to power forward (except in Lakewood ofc).

Not an example to emulate but by way of explanation, new sprawl is taking off again in metro Phoenix. Many of these areas I've never been to and don't anticipate going there. How many (besides me) have been to Parker or Castle Rock, for example? Meanwhile there's presumably as much growth in urban density down here as in Denver. The difference is it's spread among 1) Tempe 2) Phoenix downtown and 3) Scottsdale. Sprawl and urban infill are like two totally different worlds and places.

Originally Posted by EngiNerd

I got to learn about those curved glass facade panels on the DAM through my company, really cool process for creating and mounting them. They are extremely expensive too, as you can probably imagine.

Fun Fact.

[corey]

Great to see that Buzz Geller sold the 650 17th Street lot. I’m sure it’ll be a hotel. Now the dirt lot further up 17th REALLY needs to be developed. In the meantime they should fill the lot with food trucks/trailers or some other creative temporary use.

[The Dirt]

My vote is for a double decker tiny home village.