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  #4841  
Old Posted Mar 2, 2024, 3:06 PM
bnk bnk is offline
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Here is an interesting business particular metric and aspect of the Great Lake States.
Per capital its region alone rises to the top of corporate relocations and expansions released yesterday. From Atlanta based Siteselection Magazine. Chicagoland led the nation in these measurements 11 years in a row, but DFW and Houston are close behind and growing. On a per capita basis as far as total States only South Dakota eclipsed Illinois, the Capital of the Great Lakes states centered by Chicagoland on the " American side". If the Canadian Great Lake cities are included it would even likely increase because greater Toronto is on a tear.

https://siteselection.com/issues/202...y-for-more.cfm

From Site Selection magazine, March 2024


Hungry for More: Chicagoland Claims No. 1 Spot for 11th Year in a Row

by Adam Bruns






All of these USA Great Lakes performed very well to keep it per capita the number one in the USA in this business measurement.

Peruse the source to determine their methodology. Interesting Question that both NYS and PA also boarder the Great Lakes. Who considers them Great Lake States or just minor players in the description of what a Great Lake State is. Illinois and PA almost a long time ago, when boarders were being figured almost missed out on having a Great Lake coastline.

Wisconsin could have been the largest Great Lake state if the original borders were not moved 50 some odd miles north by very intelligent and powerful people hundreds of years ago. MN is also a Great Lake State but are not included in these calculations for a reasonable reason.

In Addition can we include Québec as a Great Lake Providence due to the wide and mostly fresh water in the St. Lawrence Seaway?

Last edited by bnk; Mar 2, 2024 at 3:27 PM.
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  #4842  
Old Posted Mar 6, 2024, 4:06 PM
Velvet_Highground Velvet_Highground is offline
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2014 photo of a rather the rather uniform and clear waters of the Detroit River, with a cool fog bank for effect.

https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/detroit/...ts-belle-isle/

Rivière Détroit ISS, The Detroit River is a bit of a synonym but it sounds fine to my English speaking ears so we’ll just leave that. Not a knock against Ontario pointing out the odd state the river is in as around the Great Lakes but agricultural practices. The story of the Maumee River in Toledo is the canary in the coal mine for other major rivers in ag heavy areas. The Saginaw & Fox jump to mind as they empty into shallow waters Saginaw Bay & Green Bay respectively and both bays have become much greener as of late. The rise of consented animal feed lots and the business of overselling the manure especially in a liquid form has been pointed to by a PBS documentary as the key factor to the massive algae blooms in western Lake Erie, watch “The Erie Situation” if you can find it.

2018 view of a two toned Detroit River a situation that seems to becoming more and more common.

https://www.alamy.com/aerial-of-the-...218185135.html

2022 dry summer highlights what is usually only a slight two tone when noticeable.

https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/im...-of-the-strait

Certainly there are other causes of concern for the health of Great Lakes waters, suburban lawn fertilizer likely plays a role in the mucking of St Clair shoreline in still harbors around the Clinton River Delta. The algae blooms in the Apostle Islands of Superior are much more concerning and harder to trace but I do have a theory.

The Ashland Wisconsin area isn’t a large center of agriculture yet there is not an insignificant amount. Certain factors are however in place in the White River, Fish & Wittlesey Creeks which in my must be where the nitrogen rich water is coming from. They include wooded floodplain & some of the healthiest and most pristine looking wetland deltas I’ve ever seen. So there is plenty of natural filtration going on for agricultural runoff over relatively small basin. So what’s going on?

A few things are happening in my mind to create a baffling situation where an algae bloom has begun to happen during the summer in an area of Lake Superior with normally crystal clear water. First is what I mentioned before while the Ashland area lacks intensive agriculture Wisconsin is famous for its dairy industry, the waste product ie manure is sold to farmers as fertilizer from concentrated animal feed lots.

Best practices are not employed when using manure especially liquid manure over farm fields as fertilizer. While using organic fertilizer as opposed to chemical fertilizer or at least leaning on organic is preferable how, in what form, when & quantity becomes a problem.

I’ve only heard statistics from Ohio that concentrated animal feed lots often have minimal inspections to determine if they are industrial scale or “mom ‘n pop”. Often with only a handful of inspectors in the state farmers can sell off a certain number of animals to fit into the smaller less regulated category knowing when inspecting is coming. This process creates tons of manure that is sold off as fertilizer and farmers are encouraged and told they need to use much more than is actually needed.

Using liquid manure on fields during the spring planting season leaves then especially vulnerable heavy rains washing away much of the nitrogen rich material. A dry form of organic fertilizer would be much more difficult to wash away yet it requires more time and or processing. The income source created for concentrated animal feed lots by eliminating a costly to clean waste product is an important part of the financial structure of the feed lot system.

Yet all this by itself probably wouldn’t be enough to create algae blooms in the region due to the virile health of flood plains and coastal wetlands. The local geography and global warming create the petri dish for the blooms to become harmful. Chequamegon Bay is shallow sandy and sheltered by a sand spit while all major and minor catchments have wetland outflow into. Google Maps will show a slight cloud of slit flowing north into the Apostle Islands from the otherwise normally clear and clean bay waters. The Apostle Islands also form a shallow sheltered zone next to two bays with agricultural runoff.

I can’t put this all on the Ashland area although it makes for a great case study for pin pointing sources. Duluth & Superior have a not insignificant amount of farm land as well as urban runoff and a large chemical industry in Superior. 2018 the year of the explosion and fire was also the year of the great floods around Lake Superior whether or not any errant chemical runoff even got into Lake Superior is above my pay grade and as well if it would have any impact on the recent algae bloom conditions.

My point is in one of the cleanest bodies of water in the United States and quite a cold one is showing signs of stress in its warm shallow sections. This should be particularly helpful for pinpointing exactly what is causing water quality problems in much more urban and agriculture heavy areas.

Here’s a view of the results of the destructive 2018 floods that hit western Lake Superior. Note the unhealthy murkey green floating up the east and west sides of the peninsula that the Apostle Islands jut out of. Certainly the conditions in Apostle Islands National Park are at a more nuisance situation than Western Lake Erie, Saginaw Bay, Green Bay, Lakes St Clair & Winnebago. Human activities can certainly create similar problems leaky septic systems during heavy rain events have caused mentoring for ecoli and algae in Keweenaw Bay Michigan another shallow warm Superior bay.

https://wiscontext.org/washed-away-n...anging-climate

***I chose a different smaller photo for the above picture and discovered the big plume coming from the Ontonagon River. This throws a wrench into my argument extrapolating the Lake Erie results and applying them to applicable shallow warm (get above 70F in the summer) bays on Superior. If I had to take a swing at this leaky septic tanks adding nitrogen during the great flood. Michigan is the only state in the country without a unified septic code & the Upper Peninsula has particular difficulty repairing and rebuilding septic systems Ive heard. The hard rocky ground and sometimes only 6 month to conduct repairs makes the costs rise in an area with a generally low avarage income. Still Ontonogon has a population of only 2k year round residents there is cynobacteria in Lake Superior it just doesn’t bloom under normal cold conditions. The flood of warm river water may have been a good breeding ground for naturally occurring algae to bloom, it’s likely we are super charging the algae yet global warming is contributing significantly as well. Superior is one of the fastest warming bodies of water on the planet.

Thunder Bay Ontario has had algae blooms as well an area with very minimal farming which points to human and urban runoff being able to cause these conditions as well. Here’s a 2019 Great Lakes Now article on the appearance of blooms in Superior.


https://www.greatlakesnow.org/2021/0...r-algae-bloom/

Last edited by Velvet_Highground; Mar 6, 2024 at 4:08 PM. Reason: Wrote shallow twice
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  #4843  
Old Posted Mar 6, 2024, 7:59 PM
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Thank you for that. I appreciate it.
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  #4844  
Old Posted Mar 7, 2024, 3:29 AM
Velvet_Highground Velvet_Highground is offline
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Its been a crazy winter the record low ice cover on the lakes likely spell trouble for summer water quality in the usual spots and possibly some unusual ones.

https://visibleearth.nasa.gov/images...-cover/152502f


What may be of more immediate and serious concern is the recent February Tornado outbreak. Michigan only had one recorded tornado in history in February, the 28th saw two with an EF-2 doing significant damage in Grand Blanc. What’s scary is the year that previously only recorded tornado in MI in Feb happened, 1974 the year of the super outbreak. The midwestern version of the 2011 southern super outbreak and what the 2011 tornado outbreak was measured against.

It’s been 40 years since an F or EF 3 or stronger tornado has struck Michigan, the Gaylord tornado of spring 2023 I’ve heard has been retroactively upgraded to EF -3 so that streak appears to be broken, the ‘83 Flint F-3 was the last.

This El Niño flipping over the summer to La Niña after several years of La Niña had officially broken all weather modeling protocols, Neil deGrass Tyson has a good podcast episode on it.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=CHJKKsOHtAk

Last edited by Velvet_Highground; Mar 7, 2024 at 3:30 AM. Reason: Typo
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  #4845  
Old Posted Mar 8, 2024, 12:05 AM
mrnyc mrnyc is offline
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^ velvet wow that was all super interesting — and concerning of course — thanks so much —
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  #4846  
Old Posted Mar 8, 2024, 4:28 AM
Velvet_Highground Velvet_Highground is offline
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No problem that something funky is likely to happen has been on my radar for a while meteorology is in my wheelhouse. The possibilities of just may or may not happen are only just starting to crystallize to the point where it’s worth talking about seriously.

I’m exceptionally glad Neil deGrass Tyson did an episode on this year broke weather after hearing that phrase a lot. Knowing El Niño - La Niña is one of the bedrock cycles and is doing something crazy has been something I’ve been trying to talk about but I’m not an expert.

I’m just happy to share the information & it’s being taken note of. Hopefully this unprecedented year will shock us in a way that isn’t highly dangerous or destructive but the weather shocking seems to be already a fate-a-complies.
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  #4847  
Old Posted Mar 14, 2024, 8:18 PM
mrnyc mrnyc is offline
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oof

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  #4848  
Old Posted Mar 14, 2024, 11:14 PM
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Was in Buffalo yesterday and today... downtown was pretty dead and strangely quiet in the middle of the day. I'm assuming the downtown office crowd just hasn't returned, much like how it is here in Pittsburgh. Walked around a bit and hung out for a bit in Allentown and Elmwood... more lively and pretty cool.
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  #4849  
Old Posted Mar 15, 2024, 3:40 PM
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Right or wrong, underestimating or overestimating, here is what the latest Census estimates report.

Great Lakes and Rust Belt core county changes between July 2022 and July 2023 per latest (2023) Census estimates:

Cook County (Chicago) -24,494 (-0.48%)
Wayne County (Detroit) -7,773 (-0.44%)
Cuyahoga County (Cleveland) -3,906 (-0.32%)
Milwaukee County (Milwaukee) -1,873 (-0.20%)
Erie County (Buffalo) -2,276 (-0.24%)
Monroe County (Rochester) -2,405 (-0.32%)

Nearby cities:
Allegheny County (Pittsburgh) -7,780 (-0.63%)
St Louis County + City (St. Louis) -8,187 (-0.64%)
Hamilton County (Cincinnati) +2,337 (+0.28%)

Changes from 2020 Census actual (April 2020) to July 2023 estimates.

Cook County (Chicago) -188,469 (-3.57%)
Wayne County (Detroit) -42,392 (-2.36%)
Cuyahoga County (Cleveland) -31,729 (-2.51%)
Milwaukee County (Milwaukee) -23,284 (-2.48%)
Erie County (Buffalo) -8,089 (-0.85%)
Monroe County (Rochester) -10,961 (-1.44%)

Nearby cities:
Allegheny County (Pittsburgh) -25,753 (-2.06%)
St Louis County + City (St. Louis) -36,890 (-2.83%)
Hamilton County (Cincinnati) -3,581 (-0.43%)

For those that have never looked at the yearly estimate tables, they are not just supplemented yearly but revised, often dramatically, so I suggest paying less attention to single year changes.
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  #4850  
Old Posted Mar 15, 2024, 4:20 PM
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Since the estimates are so much different than the real census, wouldn't it make more sense to compare 2023 estimates to 2020 estimates? I saw NYC did this recently and the estimates for 2020 were half a million short of the real census.
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  #4851  
Old Posted Mar 15, 2024, 4:55 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Klippenstein View Post
Since the estimates are so much different than the real census, wouldn't it make more sense to compare 2023 estimates to 2020 estimates? I saw NYC did this recently and the estimates for 2020 were half a million short of the real census.
Estimates are based on changes from the last 10-year Census figures. The previous 2020 estimate you are referring to was based on estimated changes from the 2010 census. Once 2020 actual data was available, those prior estimates no longer matter.

We won't know how correct or incorrect these current estimates are until the 2030 Census is counted. But, based on what we know today, every yearly estimate given between 2011 and 2020 was undercounting for the above cities, and it appears the most recent estimates are using the same algorithm as in the previous decade, so it could (could, not is) still be undercounting.
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  #4852  
Old Posted Mar 15, 2024, 5:23 PM
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It's still based on their flawed methodology. So seems more apt to compare it to their other flawed data. We won't ever know exactly how wrong they were except in census years, but they are ALWAYS wrong. It's an estimate. It shouldn't be compared to the census because that implies it is somehow comparable data when it's not.
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  #4853  
Old Posted Mar 15, 2024, 5:51 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Klippenstein View Post
It's still based on their flawed methodology. So seems more apt to compare it to their other flawed data. We won't ever know exactly how wrong they were except in census years, but they are ALWAYS wrong. It's an estimate. It shouldn't be compared to the census because that implies it is somehow comparable data when it's not.
The Census is actually estimating change in its yearly totals. Births and new arrivals minus deaths and departures.

That change is added or subtracted from a prior year's baseline. That's why I suggest looking at the total changes from 2020's actual total count, rather than from an estimated total.
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  #4854  
Old Posted Mar 15, 2024, 7:43 PM
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benp, I don't trust those census estimate numbers for Buffalo, particularly since you stated on SSC that over 2,000 apartments are under construction in the small 40sq mile city limits of Buffalo and knowing how much the cost for rental and for purchase housing has increased the past 4 or 5 years.

Buffalo realtor, Devonte Davis that has a YouTube channel constantly talks about how he shows housing to people relocating to Buffalo/Erie county from other places.
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  #4855  
Old Posted Mar 15, 2024, 8:28 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pj3000 View Post
Was in Buffalo yesterday and today... downtown was pretty dead and strangely quiet in the middle of the day. I'm assuming the downtown office crowd just hasn't returned, much like how it is here in Pittsburgh. Walked around a bit and hung out for a bit in Allentown and Elmwood... more lively and pretty cool.
Downtown Buffalo never had the office space, retail, foot traffic of Pittsburgh but yeah Covid set the progress back a bit!

Did you walk around Canalside?
Did you take any photos in Allentown and Elmwood?
Also, next time explore Hertel Ave in North Buffalo. Park your car and walk up and down the strip. It's not amazing but has improved dramatically in the 2 decades I've been following its transformation. 2 grocery stores, the gorgeous restored North Park theatre, shops, restaurants and bars, the side streets of Buffalo doubles with their neat warm weather porches/balconies "Jane Jacobs-- eyes on the street" neighborhood atmosphere. Hertel Ave also has a lot of wall mural art.

What do you think of the terra cotta/gun metal look of the former HSBC now Seneca One tower? that's now fully mixed use

Last edited by Wigs; Mar 15, 2024 at 8:40 PM.
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  #4856  
Old Posted Mar 16, 2024, 4:50 PM
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Not good.

My guess is that this will be the boat's last gasp.

Always sad to see an old-time laker meet its end.



Quote:
Cuyahoga, one of the oldest Great Lakes ships, is on fire in Lake Erie
The Coast Guard reports the ship's crew is accounted for

CBC News
Posted: March 15, 2024



The Cuyahoga, one of the oldest ships still travelling the Great Lakes, is on fire again.

The United States Coast Guard said on X, the platform formerly known as Twitter, on Friday afternoon that the fire is ongoing. The ship's master and crew are accounted for.

Ashtabula County, the county east of Cleveland off the coast of which the Cuyahoga is located in Lake Erie, is "utilizing maximum county and city fire department resources to put out the fire," the coast guard said.
Source: https://www.cbc.ca/amp/1.7145431
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  #4857  
Old Posted Mar 16, 2024, 6:45 PM
Velvet_Highground Velvet_Highground is offline
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Damn she looks like a goner. It’s been a mixed decade for Great Lakes maritime history the 108 year old St Mary’s Challenger was converted from a laker into a barge in 2014. Though the SS Badger has been undergoing restoration this winter and will continue the Ludington to Manitowoc run.

It’s crazy how long lasting ships are on the lakes the SS Alpena was built in 1942 by the Great Lakes Engineering Works in Ecorse. She was laid up in the 80’s and shortened by ~100ft in 1989 and turned into a self loading cement carrier. She also suffered from a fire in 2015 while laid up in dry dock.

It looks bad for the Cuyahoga but perhaps it’s mostly flammable internal material’s like paint and plastic that are burning. Whether or not the ship will be worth restoring is another question if insured perhaps if not it’s possible the fate of the St Mary’s Challenger could await, being converted into a barge.

The Alpena

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=aODI-N5Y5i0
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  #4858  
Old Posted Mar 19, 2024, 7:27 PM
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I love taking the Badger...it's a fun way to avoid all the Chicago traffic mayhem.
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  #4859  
Old Posted Apr 14, 2024, 5:09 PM
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  #4860  
Old Posted Apr 15, 2024, 5:34 PM
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^ cool graphic!

And I believe the ren cen is the tallest building that the thousand footers ever get close to.

The locks of the welland canal are too small for the thousand footers, so Toronto is out.

Chicago's Sears Tower is roughly twice as tall as the ren cen, but the shipping lanes that the thousand footers use to get to the steel mills down in NW Indiana are all about 10 miles offshore from downtown Chicago.

And I believe that Cleveland's Cuyahoga is too small and crooked for the thousand footers to navigate, so I don't think they visit Cleveland (Cleveland boatnerds please correct me here if I'm wrong about this).
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Last edited by Steely Dan; Apr 15, 2024 at 5:52 PM.
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