Lamenting the decline of the car

[SFUVancouver]

Toyota is the sick man of the automotive world.

[Truenorth00]

The biggest case for argument HFCEVs was that you could fill up in 5 mins, just like gas. Between more powerful chargers and better batteries that can take higher charging rates, that advantage is really starting to disappear.

Since most EVs are charged as a concurrent activity (sleeping, bathroom break, etc), they don't even need 5 min charging to be competitive. Inside of 15-20 mins for 100% would practically crush the competition. But nobody is aiming that low. Here's BP saying they expect 100% in 5 mins to be capable by 2021:

https://thedriven.io/2019/07/29/oil-...nutes-by-2021/

Hydrogen has a very strong case to be made because of energy density. But commercialization requires the kind of investment we're seeing on batteries. And none of its proponents seem all that interested in actually putting their money where their mouths are.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

The biggest case for argument HFCEVs was that you could fill up in 5 mins, just like gas. Between more powerful chargers and better batteries that can take higher charging rates, that advantage is really starting to disappear.

Since most EVs are charged as a concurrent activity (sleeping, bathroom break, etc), they don't even need 5 min charging to be competitive. Inside of 15-20 mins for 100% would practically crush the competition. But nobody is aiming that low. Here's BP saying they expect 100% in 5 mins to be capable by 2021:

https://thedriven.io/2019/07/29/oil-...nutes-by-2021/

Hydrogen has a very strong case to be made because of energy density. But commercialization requires the kind of investment we're seeing on batteries. And none of its proponents seem all that interested in actually putting their money where their mouths are.

Back in the 90s, when H2 Fuel Cells were having some breakthroughs, they looked like a realistic future for vehicles of all sizes. BEVs were things like golf carts and the GM EV1. Despite the conspiracy theories around that car, it wasn't too practical, but a great proof of what is possible.

Flash forward with ~25 years of battery development (thanks Apple!) for phones, laptops, and various portable electronics. Suddenly we have a battery chemistry and cost that's much more workable for electric cars. Tesla and others begin to pour money into this, and here we are.

Meanwhile fuel cells have languished. Hydrogen remains expense, and prohibitively so if we want to produce it cleanly. The compression required to have it provide a fuel cell with a decent range is incredible, putting CNG to shame.

The technology hasn't advanced much, the price is still high, and the fuel cells require a ton of rare earth material as well. Any economies of scale are unclear.

I do think hydrogen has a future replacing some of the natural gas we use now for heating. It can get slipstreamed into existing natural gas pipelines, so I've read. If electricity gets super cheap with solar, it's a great use for excesses generated during the day.

[Truenorth00]

The other issue for hydrogen is the cost of fueling. It's ridiculously expensive.

Hydrogen fuel prices range from $12.85 to more than $16 per kilogram (kg), but the most common price is $13.99 per kg (equivalent on a price per energy basis to $5.60 per gallon of gasoline), which translates to an operating cost of $0.21 per mile......At $3.50 per gallon gasoline, a conventional vehicle costs about $0.13 per mile to operate, while an FCEV using $8 per kg hydrogen fuel would cost about $0.12 per mile.

https://cafcp.org/content/cost-refill

So basically, you're swapping one expensive fuel for another. The Japanese and Koreans just don't want to admit they got caught napping and bet on the wrong horse.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by SFUVancouver

Toyota is the sick man of the automotive world.

I'd say that title is reserved for Nissan right now.

Toyota is playing a fairly pragmatic game going for hybrids rather than pure electric. I'm just disappointed we're not getting more PHEVs in North America. Something that has 50km of electric range, yet still has a gas motor would be perfect for me and I expect millions of Canadians. Lexus has the ES300h but the front of all Toyota products have been hit with the ugly stick, and I'm not a fan of the busy, button-heavy interiors.

[accord1999]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

But nobody is aiming that low. Here's BP saying they expect 100% in 5 mins to be capable by 2021:

https://thedriven.io/2019/07/29/oil-...nutes-by-2021/

BP seems to be writing a check that its acquired battery developer can't cash:

To date, StoreDot have demonstrated their li-ion tech works for mobile phones and electric scooters, with plans to start selling five minute chargers for mobile phones by mid-2020.

At a recent demonstration in Tel Aviv in June, StoreDot’s tech added charged the flat battery of an electric scooter in 5 minutes, showing that the tech can also be used for larger applications.

Is BP suggesting 0-100% in 5 minutes? For a largish 60 kWh battery, that requires an average charging rate of more than 700 kW. Li-ion batteries' ability to accept power decreases as it fills, so it would actually require 1+ MW peak rates early on.

And how many times could the battery be charged at such a rate without suffering damage? Heat and high amperage are detrimental to the health of li-ion batteries. You might be able to do it for a perfectly controlled demo once or twice (and then throw out the battery), but what about the typical lifespan of a car?

[Truenorth00]

Whether it's BP or someone else. Faster Charging is coming. Especially as graphene catches on for batteries. Also, I'm going to say it doesn't strictly have to be 5 mins. I live in a condo. If I had to go charge somewhere else to charge. I'd be okay with 15 mins while I have a coffee at Tim's once a week or while at the grocer. The key is to enable charging concurrently, doing something else that I like to do or have to do. Incidentally, 10-15 mins is also the length of my single stop when driving to Toronto. But even if it's dead boring and I have nothing to do, at those times, I'd just sit in my car plugged in. Don't even have to stand outside with the car not running, like I do while pumping gas.

For a 100 kWh battery, only need a 400 kW charger to fill in 15 mins. And 600 kW charger in 10 min. I'm going to say batteries and chargers capable of this will be here shortly even if it takes a few years to proliferate.

The Electrify Canada chargers at 350 kW are already pretty close:

https://www.electrify-canada.ca/about-ev-charging

Theoretically, 17 mins to fill up 100 kWh.

And since most folks aren't going to zero to 100%, I suspect the actual charge times are probably less than 15 mins on average, even with the tapering off at the end.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by whatnext

I'm just disappointed we're not getting more PHEVs in North America.

Battery prices are dropping so fast that in the 5 year design cycle for most automakers, a BEV might end up cheaper than a PHEV.

Given how behind Toyota is, I expect them to announce all their cars will be plug ins. Just to try and hold off the competitions long enough to switch their strategy.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Battery prices are dropping so fast that in the 5 year design cycle for most automakers, a BEV might end up cheaper than a PHEV.

Given how behind Toyota is, I expect them to announce all their cars will be plug ins. Just to try and hold off the competitions long enough to switch their strategy.

Toyota has been "hybridizing" their entire lineup. People were begging for more electric only range, and finally they started producing a plug-in Prius in greater numbers. Now they are introducing a plug-in Rav4 (no brainer IMO).

It's like they are inching towards it while saying the opposite.

[scryer]

Originally Posted by SFUVancouver

Toyota is the sick man of the automotive world.

A fan of the old Ottoman Empire saying are we?

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

Toyota has been "hybridizing" their entire lineup. People were begging for more electric only range, and finally they started producing a plug-in Prius in greater numbers. Now they are introducing a plug-in Rav4 (no brainer IMO).

It's like they are inching towards it while saying the opposite.

Inching is the problem for them. I don't think they ever expected to EVs just ramp up so fast. The flood of EVs coming over the next two years are going to make their hybrids seem as quaint as rotary dial phones.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Inching is the problem for them. I don't think they ever expected to EVs just ramp up so fast. The flood of EVs coming over the next two years are going to make their hybrids seem as quaint as rotary dial phones.

Nobody has ever accused the Japanese of risk-taking innovation...

[theman23]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

The other issue for hydrogen is the cost of fueling. It's ridiculously expensive.



https://cafcp.org/content/cost-refill

So basically, you're swapping one expensive fuel for another. The Japanese and Koreans just don't want to admit they got caught napping and bet on the wrong horse.

Koreans? Hyundai has more electric cars than any other manufacturer, Tesla included.

[Denscity]

Just read BCs new cars purchased are up to 9% EV. Not sure how that compares nationally.

[Riverman]

Last I read national was 0.9%.

[WarrenC12]

According to Stats Can:

In 2018, 2.2% of new motor vehicles registered in Canada were zero-emission vehicles—either plug-in hybrid electric or full battery-electric vehicles.

Trends are pretty clear though:

The total number of new motor vehicle registrations in Canada in 2018 was 1,978,562, declining 2.7% from their peak in 2017. Prior to this decrease, new motor vehicle registrations had increased each year since 2011.

By fuel type, only new registrations of gasoline-powered vehicles declined in 2018. All other fuel types reported increases, including battery electric vehicles (+152.7%), plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (+85.1%) and hybrid electric vehicles (+11.1%).

2019 numbers should be interesting. I expect EVs to continue increasing dramatically, while overall sales decline slightly.

[DizzyEdge]

re: hydrogen fuel cell, is the technology such that they wouldn't necessarily be banned from underground parking like many propane vehicles are?

[urbandreamer]

Contractors next truck?
https://nikolamotor.com/badger

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by urbandreamer

Contractors next truck?
https://nikolamotor.com/badger

Maybe if it wasn't vaporware.

[ssiguy]

Originally Posted by DizzyEdge

re: hydrogen fuel cell, is the technology such that they wouldn't necessarily be banned from underground parking like many propane vehicles are?

The days of the Hindenburg are long since over. A hydrogen has no more chance of blowing up than does a gas one.

The only place where hydrogen would not be safe is with underground trains due to the thousands on the platforms but this is no different from diesels/gas also not being allowed underground even if they entered the underground sections using pure battery power to stop emissions while travelling thru it.