Federal Government & Politics II

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by VANRIDERFAN

^^
Thanks for the clarification.

I honestly think the rebate is dumb. The Carbon Tax money should go to infrastructure projects like SMRs, reinforcing the actual distribution grid, upgrading all of our infrastructure to attempt to handle exceptional weather events, building passenger rail, etc.

I'd rather see that happening with the money I pay in carbon taxes than getting the 122.00 cheque every quarter, which honestly is useless to me.

I understand the impulse and thinking here. I've listened to Katherine McKenna actually talk about this on various podcasts. Their initial impulse was to consider investment (as you suggest). But after they spoke to economists and political scientists they realized a few things that changed their decisions.

1) Rebates were necessary to make higher carbon prices politically palatable. BC and Quebec are good examples of provinces without rebates. And in both those provinces, you'll see people argue that this is just another tax.

2) Without rebates, the burden on lower income households is higher. A larger percentage of their household spending goes to non-discretionary energy consumption.

3) There's no reward signal for good behaviour. With the current rebates, people who consume less fossil fuels than the provincial average net ahead.

4) It would have been an administrative nightmare to craft grant programs for each province. Keep in mind that there is no national carbon tax. The backstop is applied individually in each province and all revenue collected in a province is rebated in that province. Collect and rebate is administratively very easy.

5) It allows for market solutions. This is a bit more debatable to me. And clearly the government has to resort to supplementary mandates. They were hoping that nudging gas prices about 5¢ higher per year would encourage EV, hybrid or even smaller vehicle adoption. Instead people have kept buying their F150s and just bitching more about gas prices.

At the end of the day, there's nothing stopping a province from pulling out of the backstop and simply taking the revenue and spending it. BC and Quebec so that.

[1overcosc]

One thing I think would go a long way to improving uptake of green renovations would be a loan program against property taxes, where homeowners can take out low-cost loans from the government to pay for renos, and the repayments would be charged to the property tax account. The extra property tax cost resulting would be offset by the reduced energy costs, and it would mean that if you move, the payments automatically transfer to the next owner.

[VANRIDERFAN]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

The biggest problem I've had is ice accretion on the outside units during freezing rain events. This might happen a couple of times a year. Temperatures below -20C happen a few days each winter in Moncton too, but, 95% of the time the heat pump works just fine.

And, as I said, their is a built in back-up electrical furnace.

What are your thoughts about the rebate?
I think that if we are collecting a tax for climate mitigation it should actually go to the things that will do that instead of back into our pockets.

[1overcosc]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

I understand the impulse and thinking here. I've listened to Katherine McKenna actually talk about this on various podcasts. Their initial impulse was to consider investment (as you suggest). But after they spoke to economists and political scientists they realized a few things that changed their decisions.

1) Rebates were necessary to make higher carbon prices politically palatable. BC and Quebec are good examples of provinces without rebates. And in both those provinces, you'll see people argue that this is just another tax.

2) Without rebates, the burden on lower income households is higher. A larger percentage of their household spending goes to non-discretionary energy consumption.

3) There's no reward signal for good behaviour. With the current rebates, people who consume less fossil fuels than the provincial average net ahead.

4) It would have been an administrative nightmare to craft grant programs for each province. Keep in mind that there is no national carbon tax. The backstop is applied individually in each province and all revenue collected in a province is rebated in that province. Collect and rebate is administratively very easy.

5) It allows for market solutions. This is a bit more debatable to me. And clearly the government has to resort to supplementary mandates. They were hoping that nudging gas prices about 5¢ higher per year would encourage EV, hybrid or even smaller vehicle adoption. Instead people have kept buying their F150s and just bitching more about gas prices.

At the end of the day, there's nothing stopping a province from pulling out of the backstop and simply taking the revenue and spending it. BC and Quebec so that.

To elaborate on number 4, a system of grant programs for the backstop, in addition to being bureaucratic and unwieldy, might not have been constitutional. A key part of why the SCC ruled that the backstop policy is constitutional is because of the simplicity of the tax-and-rebate mechanism and the resulting minimal effect on provincial economies.

As for your point #2, Ontario is a cautionary tale. Kathleen Wynne went with a grant program system for carbon pricing revenues and it had the effect of giving goodies for the upper middle class and wealthy while screwing over the working classes contributing heavily to her government's defeat.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

In Southern Ontario temps below -20C happen only periodically so it shouldn't be that big of a deal, but in somewhere like Northern Ontario or the Prairies, the all electric house probably isn't realistic yet.

Disagree. I think people struggle with the idea that heat pump operation is not binary. The only difference in colder places is the amount of time you're relying on secondary heating. In Southern Ontario maybe your secondary heating comes on 20-30 days per winter. In the Prairies, it will probably be needed for 60-90 days each winter. That still leaves a whole lot of Fall and Spring where energy is saved. Add to that, the energy saved on cooling in the hot Prairie summers.

[VANRIDERFAN]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

4) It would have been an administrative nightmare to craft grant programs for each province. Keep in mind that there is no national carbon tax. The backstop is applied individually in each province and all revenue collected in a province is rebated in that province. Collect and rebate is administratively very easy.

So this is a copy and paste from my bank account:
Oct 13, 2023
Climate Action Incentive
CANADA
$122.00

It doesn't say Ontario it says Canada.

[1overcosc]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Disagree. I think people struggle with the idea that heat pump operation is not binary. The only difference in colder places is the amount of time you're relying on secondary heating. In Southern Ontario maybe your secondary heating comes on 20-30 days per winter. In the Prairies, it will probably be needed for 60-90 days each winter. That still leaves a whole lot of Fall and Spring where energy is saved. Add to that, the energy saved on cooling in the hot Prairie summers.

Its more that secondary electric heat would get really expensive if you're using it regularly. The whole house rated heat pumps have 20kw secondary electric heaters. 20kw would drive up electricity bills really fast if it was happening for days at a time. Plus some older houses might require some serious rewiring to accomodate 20kw of power use by a single appliance.

All in all, a heat pump is a great thing for a Prairie household to substantially reduce fossil fuel use for heating, but for a lot of people out there it's not practical for one to eliminate fossil fuel use.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by VANRIDERFAN

So this is a copy and paste from my bank account:
Oct 13, 2023
Climate Action Incentive
CANADA
$122.00

It doesn't say Ontario it says Canada.

Correct. It's being administered and paid out by the Government of Canada. But it's a program entirely administered in your province. It's not a national program. That's why the rebate rates are different in each province.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by VANRIDERFAN

What are your thoughts about the rebate?
I think that if we are collecting a tax for climate mitigation it should actually go to the things that will do that instead of back into our pockets.

I am neutral on the rebate. I am a high income earner and don't really need it, but there are a lot of people out there which can benefit from even a couple of hundred extra bucks in their pocket.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

Its more that secondary electric heat would get really expensive if you're using it regularly. The whole house rated heat pumps have 20kw secondary electric heaters. 20kw would drive up electricity bills really fast if it was happening for days at a time. Plus some older houses might require some serious rewiring to accomodate 20kw of power use by a single appliance.

All in all, a heat pump is a great thing for a Prairie household to substantially reduce fossil fuel use for heating, but for a lot of people out there it's not practical for one to eliminate fossil fuel use.

If you want a truly electric home sure. But I would think for most people, the decision on whether the secondary source should be electric or nat gas should be based on the cost of electricity and gas in their province.

[Marty_Mcfly]

Yeah, temperatures in most of Eastern Canada aren't an issue. An unforeseen complication is the requirement of a secondary heat source; many installers won't install units unless there is a secondary heat source. Also, many of the rebates for installing heat pumps do require the removal of your oil tank.....so realistically you're likely installing a heat pump, and an electric furnace or baseboard heating. Then if your electrical panel needs an upgrade to handle any of that.....you can see how costs can easily snowball.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Correct. It's being administered and paid out by the Government of Canada. But it's a program entirely administered in your province. It's not a national program. That's why the rebate rates are different in each province.

It is administered federally but yes the rebate rate is based on the provincial revenues it brings in. As this is province wide it does vary. People in Amherst and say Middleton might both be rural for the Carbon rebate but in Amherst since it's on the pipeline route has access to natural gas. The carbon tax and rebate makes switching to gas a good investment. If your choice is a heat pump the math is very different so you see your heating oil gas cost go up and up. But yes Nova Scotia where lots of rural folks are using heating oil and electrify grid still has coal will get a bigger rebate than Ontario which is gas and carbon free electricity for the most part.

[Innsertnamehere]

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

Its more that secondary electric heat would get really expensive if you're using it regularly. The whole house rated heat pumps have 20kw secondary electric heaters. 20kw would drive up electricity bills really fast if it was happening for days at a time. Plus some older houses might require some serious rewiring to accomodate 20kw of power use by a single appliance.

All in all, a heat pump is a great thing for a Prairie household to substantially reduce fossil fuel use for heating, but for a lot of people out there it's not practical for one to eliminate fossil fuel use.

All electric heat is practical in the lower mainland, Nova Scotia, and southern Ontario, basically.

The coldest Hamilton even got last winter was -19.6, for one night in February, for example. The last time Hamilton Airport recorded a temperature below -20 was January 29, 2022. Last time a temperature below -25 was recorded was December 31, 2017.

My understanding is that you only really need backup electrical heating for temps below -25 or so, which only really regularly happens in Northern Ontario and the Prairies. Someone in Southern Ontario may want to keep around a few extra space heaters for the odd freak cold snap, but that's probably about it.

That's my understanding at least.

My In-laws live in Rural Ontario and have been running an all-electric ducted furnace since they built ther house in the mid-1980's as well. Their utility bills are unsurprisingly quite high, but it's definitely possible.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by Innsertnamehere

All electric heat is practical in the lower mainland, Nova Scotia, and southern Ontario, basically.

The coldest Hamilton even got last winter was -19.6, for one night in February, for example. The last time Hamilton Airport recorded a temperature below -20 was January 29, 2022. Last time a temperature below -25 was recorded was December 31, 2017.

My understanding is that you only really need backup electrical heating for temps below -25 or so, which only really regularly happens in Northern Ontario and the Prairies. Someone in Southern Ontario may want to keep around a few extra space heaters for the odd freak cold snap, but that's probably about it.

That's my understanding at least.

It's my understanding that code requires a secondary heat source for climates that routinely experience sub-zero weather (which would be all of Canada). Practically speaking, unless you have a Passive House, I would think it unsafe to not have secondary heating. Even if -20°C is one day a year. I wouldn't want that day (or there abouts) to be the one my pipes burst.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

It's my understanding that code requires a secondary heat source for climates that routinely experience sub-zero weather (which would be all of Canada). Practically speaking, unless you have a Passive House, I would think it unsafe to not have secondary heating. Even if -20°C is one day a year. I wouldn't want that day (or there abouts) to be the one my pipes burst.

That really makes the already dubious math on heat pumps a lot worse. In the current interest rate environment the grants need to be much larger or interest free loans could be another option so it can actually pay off. Electricity rates are also artificially low so the cost of running the pump is likely to increase by more than other sources of energy too.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

Electricity rates are also artificially low so the cost of running the pump is likely to increase by more than other sources of energy too.

How are they artificially low? If you're in Alberta you've been gouged by the system more than having low rates.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

That really makes the already dubious math on heat pumps a lot worse. In the current interest rate environment the grants need to be much larger or interest free loans could be another option so it can actually pay off. Electricity rates are also artificially low so the cost of running the pump is likely to increase by more than other sources of energy too.

I'd like to see your math. A heat pump costs marginally more than most AC units. The difference is made up by saving on heating AND cooling costs. It's not just about heating. Also, unless you're doing a major retrofit or a new build, your secondary source is already in place. And if you are doing a new build the added cost over traditional HVAC would just be a few thousand anyway. That's easily made up in a few years. Sure, if you're going for a ground source heat pump that requires drilling, that math might not pencil. But air source heat pumps really aren't insanely expensive these days.

[Innsertnamehere]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

I'd like to see your math. A heat pump costs marginally more than most AC units. The difference is made up by saving on heating AND cooling costs. It's not just about heating. Also, unless you're doing a major retrofit or a new build, your secondary source is already in place. And if you are doing a new build the added cost over traditional HVAC would just be a few thousand anyway. That's easily made up in a few years. Sure, if you're going for a ground source heat pump that requires drilling, that math might not pencil. But air source heat pumps really aren't insanely expensive these days.

Huh? Heat pumps cost like 3x as much as an A/C unit does from my understanding. A quick google online says heat pumps installed should be $15-20k and an A/C unit should be $4-7k.

you get the rebate, sure, but it's still a good chunk more.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

I'd like to see your math. A heat pump costs marginally more than most AC units. The difference is made up by saving on heating AND cooling costs. It's not just about heating. Also, unless you're doing a major retrofit or a new build, your secondary source is already in place. And if you are doing a new build the added cost over traditional HVAC would just be a few thousand anyway. That's easily made up in a few years. Sure, if you're going for a ground source heat pump that requires drilling, that math might not pencil. But air source heat pumps really aren't insanely expensive these days.

I guess new build vs retrofit is a key question but my understanding from looking at a few people who blog their results is it costs something like $10k extra and you save $500 a season. A 5% GIC for $10,000 is already $500 a month. So essentially you are treading water. In 30 years you have a more expensive system to replace. In Ontario at least our electricity costs are subsidized. Take away that subsidy and your costs increase.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

I guess new build vs retrofit is a key question but my understanding from looking at a few people who blog their results is it costs something like $10k extra and you save $500 a season. A 5% GIC for $10,000 is already $500 a month. So essentially you are treading water. In 30 years you have a more expensive system to replace. In Ontario at least our electricity costs are subsidized. Take away that subsidy and your costs increase.

But you are also getting AC with the retrofit? I understand everybody has to do their own math, but it seems win-win to me.