Atlantic Canadian Politics Thread

[sailor734]

Talk in the Moncton thread about why NB is lagging NS so much on the pace of new developments veered off into politics.

Do you think a removal of the double taxation on rental housing and a removal of the provincial sales tax on new development would cause construction to spike?

[OliverD]

It would certainly level the playing field with the other Maritime provinces.

My understanding is that the "double" tax has been reduced though I'm not sure what the rate currently is.

[Monctoncore]

In a recent story, Hennessy a developer form Moncton said it was still 2.2 in Moncton, which is double the national average. Which seems the same for bother Saint John and Fredericton as well.

[jonny golden]

I'm feeling the same as MonctonRad about the slow pace of the larger developments. There's no doubt in my mind that the concerns Bill Hennessey expressed to city council last week are valid, and are having a negative effect on development.

Just consider St. Bernard's Place. They can't still be in the planning stages, as they've had years to plan and get ready for construction. Are they still crunching numbers to ensure they get an acceptable return on investment?

It's frustrating, but I'm still optimistic.

[sailor734]

Originally Posted by Monctoncore

In a recent story, Hennessy a developer form Moncton said it was still 2.2 in Moncton, which is double the national average. Which seems the same for bother Saint John and Fredericton as well.

The PC's cut the provincial rate on rental housing by 50% in in 2022 but have not followed through on talk of eliminating it.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-b...-cap-1.6393236

[Monctoncore]

Originally Posted by sailor734

The PC's cut the provincial rate on rental housing by 50% in in 2022 but have not followed through on talk of eliminating it.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-b...-cap-1.6393236

Which is crazy to think, that even after that 50% cut, we are still left with these numbers. I have no skin in the political game, this criticism would be given to any one who was in power and wasn’t making an effort to fix the problem. Right now we need housing across this entire province and the double taxing and other factors right now like inflation are making it harder for developers to make things work.

The numbers below are from a recent article from just the past 2 weeks.

Here in New Brunswick, we have what we would call a unique property tax system. So if you’re in Moncton, your rate is 2.074. It’s 1.968 if you’re in Fredericton. 2.2 in Saint John. Dieppe is about 2.1. St. John’s, Newfoundland, is around 0.83. In Halifax, it’s 1.1. Toronto it’s 0.66. The national average is 0.9. Our property tax is double, and that’s a problem,” Hennessey says.

[sailor734]

Originally Posted by Monctoncore

Which is crazy to think, that even after that 50% cut, we are still left with these numbers. I have no skin in the political game, this criticism would be given to any one who was in power and wasn’t making an effort to fix the problem. Right now we need housing across this entire province and the double taxing and other factors right now like inflation are making it harder for developers to make things work.

The numbers below are from a recent article from just the past 2 weeks.

In fairness the rate is only one part of the equation. Property values matter just as much. Pretty easy to have a low rate somewhere like Toronto where 7 figure condos are the norm.

NB struggles with sparsely populated large (geographically speaking) cities with aging infrastructure and (until recently) very low property values by national standards.

I agree the province needs to do more financially to incentivize development but cities have a role to play too. Do municipalities have to power to grant tax holidays of X years for new residential development?

[adamuptownsj]

Originally Posted by sailor734

In fairness the rate is only one part of the equation. Property values matter just as much. Pretty easy to have a low rate somewhere like Toronto where 7 figure condos are the norm.

NB struggles with sparsely populated large (geographically speaking) cities with aging infrastructure and (until recently) very low property values by national standards.

I agree the province needs to do more financially to incentivize development but cities have a role to play too. Do municipalities have to power to grant tax holidays of X years for new residential development?

Agreed on the low value. The whole property tax system/municipal financing structure here is strange.

There is a provincial program that abates property taxes substantially on new MUR. 66% reduction in taxes owed on first assessment, 33% on second assessment. No idea if the cities are reimbursed the difference.

I've said on here before that vacant land is brutally under-assessed in Primary Development Areas. A lot of that is likely a holdover from the pre-2020 low values, but if 1970s bungalows have doubled in value since then, prime vacant land should have too. Lots in built-out neighbourhoods with electrical, W&S, and even gas infrastructure feet away, are assessed at $12,000 sell for $50,000+ and pay a pittance of property tax.

Not being a fan of taxes in general, but recognizing the need for a revenue neutral reform, the province should a) properly assess serviced vacant land in urbanized areas, and b) allow the cities to set a massively higher rate than is currently allowed, with a mandatory reduction in property tax rates for residential/commercial/industrial properties equal to that increase.

Total tax burden doesn't change, people and companies sitting on vacant land are forced to build or sell, and rates come down for existing buildings. Throw a tax penalty on vacant residential properties, too, provided they're not under renovation.

[Bishop2047]

These are good points. Below is a property tax rate by city chart. This does not factor in things like vacant property tax increases, but it shows the variability by city. As stated you have to factor in average home values not just the % of home values, and the correlation to total property tax billed.

https://www.wealthsimple.com/en-ca/l...property-taxes

[adamuptownsj]

CBC reduced to running random cranks' opinions: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-b...aign-1.7203761

For the Greens or Liberals to not run full slates, they'd have to be in total disarray. Obviously neither party is foolish enough to consider it (Coon said no and Holt didn't respond). The Greens want to be a provincial force, the Liberals want to govern. Neither ambition is fantastical. Both would lose a lot of credibility running 20-30 candidates each.

Some people think these cute little coalition games go over well with voters. They say 'well if party A got 30 votes and party B got 15 votes, we'd beat party C's 40 votes.' In reality that doesn't happen. Most voters aren't particularly ideologically coherent. A Liberal voter is not necessarily a Green voter in waiting. Higgs is not guaranteed the now-diminished PA's 9%.

Not sure what this would look like on the ground, even. Both parties leaving incumbents alone would be 16 Liberals, 3 Greens. How do they split the other 30? By 2020 performance? Would the Greens give up on Acadian growth/outreach, and the Liberals, York and Sunbury?

The guy is entitled to his opinion but I fail to see how it's news.

[Monctoncore]

I agree with you all, there is more to it than just those taxes. There is an array of issues that could be worked on to solve this. The taxes is one, but there are many others. I only mention the tax because Developers are saying it’s affecting them building.

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by adamuptownsj

CBC reduced to running random cranks' opinions: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-b...aign-1.7203761

For the Greens or Liberals to not run full slates, they'd have to be in total disarray. Obviously neither party is foolish enough to consider it (Coon said no and Holt didn't respond). The Greens want to be a provincial force, the Liberals want to govern. Neither ambition is fantastical. Both would lose a lot of credibility running 20-30 candidates each.

Some people think these cute little coalition games go over well with voters. They say 'well if party A got 30 votes and party B got 15 votes, we'd beat party C's 40 votes.' In reality that doesn't happen. Most voters aren't particularly ideologically coherent. A Liberal voter is not necessarily a Green voter in waiting. Higgs is not guaranteed the now-diminished PA's 9%.

Not sure what this would look like on the ground, even. Both parties leaving incumbents alone would be 16 Liberals, 3 Greens. How do they split the other 30? By 2020 performance? Would the Greens give up on Acadian growth/outreach, and the Liberals, York and Sunbury?

The guy is entitled to his opinion but I fail to see how it's news.

Of course you hate this idea, because you’re a clear cut PC partisan.

The Liberals and Greens split each others vote in a lot of ridings. If the Liberals and Greens came to an agreement to not run candidates in some key ridings to give the Liberal or Green candidate a better chance to win, they’ll almost certainly defeat the PC’s in the next election. It’s not even a coalition game, it’s just smart politics and one of the only ways to actually deal with the vote splitting that exists in the first past the post system.

If the Liberals win 22 seats, the Greens win 4 seats, and the PC’s win 23 seats, the Liberals and Greens could absolutely form a coalition, that’s how a parliamentary system works. If anything, such a governing coalition would be heralded by the voting public as a positive change. Moreover, it would likely be the first time since 1999 that the ruling government represented 50% or more of NB voters. (39% Liberal, 11% Green could be possible)

Blaine Higgs’s PCs won in 2018 because of vote splitting between the Liberals and Greens. That’s their only chance to win again in 2024. Here’s hoping the Liberals and Greens are sensible enough to do this in a few key ridings!

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by sailor734

In fairness the rate is only one part of the equation. Property values matter just as much. Pretty easy to have a low rate somewhere like Toronto where 7 figure condos are the norm.

NB struggles with sparsely populated large (geographically speaking) cities with aging infrastructure and (until recently) very low property values by national standards.

I agree the province needs to do more financially to incentivize development but cities have a role to play too. Do municipalities have to power to grant tax holidays of X years for new residential development?

Are tax holidays allowed? Because I’ve always felt that tax holidays are a simple solution to promote development that cities in demographic decline, like Saint John, and are something that should have considered ages ago. My assumption is that the archaic provincial tax code doesn’t allow municipalities to do this. Such a tax holiday scheme set in motion decades ago could have promoted more suburban development within the city limits, and probably lessened the huge number of SJ residents that decided to moved out Quispamsis and other bedroom communities.

Personally, I’d love to see a tax holiday implemented on residential high rises 15 storeys or higher. No taxes for five or ten years, as long as the projects are completed within a certain window of time. I think we might all be surprised to see how many projects we could get built in Saint John with that incentive, and it would absolutely be worth it in the long run. If Irving Oil can get what is basically a permanent tax holiday for their tank storage at Mispec, why not try something similar to spur residential development? Again, I suspect the provincial tax code doesn’t allow municipalities to implement tax holidays as such, but that doesn’t mean the tax code can’t be reformed. We’ll just need a change of government, as Higgs and the PC’s have dragged their feet on all of their tax reform promises, and they can’t be trusted to ever actually deliver on tax reform.

[adamuptownsj]

Originally Posted by EnvisionSaintJohn

Of course you hate this idea, because you’re a clear cut PC partisan.

The Liberals and Greens split each others vote in a lot of ridings. If the Liberals and Greens came to an agreement to not run candidates in some key ridings to give the Liberal or Green candidate a better chance to win, they’ll almost certainly defeat the PC’s in the next election. It’s not even a coalition game, it’s just smart politics and one of the only ways to actually deal with the vote splitting that exists in the first past the post system.

If the Liberals win 22 seats, the Greens win 4 seats, and the PC’s win 23 seats, the Liberals and Greens could absolutely form a coalition, that’s how a parliamentary system works. If anything, such a governing coalition would be heralded by the voting public as a positive change. Moreover, it would likely be the first time since 1999 that the ruling government represented 50% or more of NB voters. (39% Liberal, 11% Green could be possible)

Blaine Higgs’s PCs won in 2018 because of vote splitting between the Liberals and Greens. That’s their only chance to win again in 2024. Here’s hoping the Liberals and Greens are sensible enough to do this in a few key ridings!

I explained why they won't do it, because Holt and Coon are rational actors who rightfully believe they can achieve their goals. I doubt either would disagree with what I wrote. Read the article, they and their candidates are firmly against doing this. Not sure how a partisan status I don't have (I spoil my ballots) would be relevant.

The Greens cannot afford to become a 'parasitic twin' party. It hurt them in BC, the PA here, and it's hurting the NDP now. In a perfect Green world they would win 3-4 urban southern seats and another 2-3 rural Acadian seats. They cannot afford to roll over there-- those are the same seats the Liberals need/must keep, respectively. Of course the Green dream is not happening this cycle. But a strong effort up north and in the cities would benefit them. Bailing on dozens of seats would not.

Liberals will bounce back, but where and by how much is up for debate. They have a few solid gains priced in: Saint John Harbour is likely, Holt would technically be a pickup herself, Moncton East, and Champdoré-Irishtown both being likely. That's 21 at bare minimum. Picking off Arseneau's seat, Portland-Simonds, Fredericton North, and [FREE CHOICE] is a majority. The Liberals want to win and believe they can win, which is completely plausible. Stepping back in any seat in a year they expect, at worst, to recover to ~40% and ~20 seats, and at best, to form government, is not going to happen.

They ARE NOT THE SAME PARTY. Will the Greens give confidence and supply for a few years if needed? Clearly. Will they run in a formal coalition? No. Will candidates stand down to produce a single candidate vs. a PC? Absolutely not. The parties have their own motivations, whether you like them or understand them. Don't get mad at me for suggesting why. Good lord.

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by adamuptownsj

I explained why they won't do it, because Holt and Coon are rational actors who rightfully believe they can achieve their goals. I doubt either would disagree with what I wrote. Read the article, they and their candidates are firmly against doing this. Not sure how a partisan status I don't have (I spoil my ballots) would be relevant.

The Greens cannot afford to become a 'parasitic twin' party. It hurt them in BC, the PA here, and it's hurting the NDP now. In a perfect Green world they would win 3-4 urban southern seats and another 2-3 rural Acadian seats. They cannot afford to roll over there-- those are the same seats the Liberals need/must keep, respectively. Of course the Green dream is not happening this cycle. But a strong effort up north and in the cities would benefit them. Bailing on dozens of seats would not.

Liberals will bounce back, but where and by how much is up for debate. They have a few solid gains priced in: Saint John Harbour is likely, Holt would technically be a pickup herself, Moncton East, and Champdoré-Irishtown both being likely. That's 21 at bare minimum. Picking off Arseneau's seat, Portland-Simonds, Fredericton North, and [FREE CHOICE] is a majority. The Liberals want to win and believe they can win, which is completely plausible. Stepping back in any seat in a year they expect, at worst, to recover to ~40% and ~20 seats, and at best, to form government, is not going to happen.

They ARE NOT THE SAME PARTY. Will the Greens give confidence and supply for a few years if needed? Clearly. Will they run in a formal coalition? No. Will candidates stand down to produce a single candidate vs. a PC? Absolutely not. The parties have their own motivations, whether you like them or understand them. Don't get mad at me for suggesting why. Good lord.

You didn’t explain anything, you offered up your opinion. What goal does David Coon honestly think he can achieve if the PC’s win a narrow majority due to vote splitting between the Liberals and Greens?

We’re not talking about 10 seats each here… 3 each could be enough to make a difference, and it the Liberals would only agree to it if it was more in their favour. As you’ve pointed out somewhat accurately, despite no real accurate polling data to go on, that it may once again be difficult for either the Liberals or PCs to win a Majority. The last thing the Liberals and Green want is for the PCs to pull off a narrow majority, or even simply win the most seats, and have Higgs and Steve Outhouse spin it into a victory and try and label any sort of coalition between the Greens and Liberals as unconstitutional. Higgs would absolutely try to cling onto power in such a scenario, which could have us going right back to the polls, which would be ridiculous.

I’m only speaking hypothetically, but a coalition is absolutely preferable to a confidence and supply agreement with the Greens, which would be very similar to the federal situation between the Liberals and NDP. Having an official coalition government would be far more stable and representative of the electorate than another kingmaker situation like we had with the PANB and CP’s the first time around in 2018. Coalitions force the parties to actually cooperate and make compromises in order to make government work. The Green Party wouldn’t be a bunch of lay downs like the People’s Alliance was for Higgs. They’ll actually hold the Liberals feet to the fire if they can’t win 26 seats outright to form a government and provide a speaker.

I get a kick out of you taking issue with being called a PC partisan, while you’re fine calling the guy a crank who came up with this idea for the Greens and Liberals to come to an agreement in a few key ridings to not let the PCs win too many close ridings where Green votes and Liberal votes combined are more than the vote totals for the PCs. I call BS that you actually spoil your ballot, the guy who updates this politics thread the most often regarding NB politics. You’ve painted an abundantly clear picture that you’re a conservative partisan both provincially and federally. I meant no offence by it. You’re entitled to your views.

I actually find myself agreeing with quite a lot of what you say, despite your penchant for pessimism and cynicism. Can’t blame you, that’s what happens to anyone if they live in Saint John long enough. Glad you at least still give a crap about what happens in the city, and want to see it cleaned up and improved, even if we have different visions for how that Saint John might look, clearly.

Btw, what are your thoughts on amalgamation for the Saint John Region? Nova Scotia got it done for Halifax in the 90s, why can’t New Brunswick get it done for Saint John? Seems like the logical step to move the whole region forward, yet, still no real progress on in that front. Susan Holt’s Liberals don’t exactly have a great chance to win ridings in Grand Bay, Rothesay, Quispamsis, or Hampton… seems like reopening the discussion on amalgamation could help her party pickup seats within Saint John city proper. Would you at least say regional amalgamation would improve the current situation and long term outlook for the Saint John Region?

[adamuptownsj]

The parties don't like each other. They're not friends. They are not interchangable. As if to prove my point, YESTERDAY Arseneau accused the Liberals of forcing nursing home residents, including his grandmother, to register with the party during their most recent leadership race. https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-b...ters-1.7205317

Your comment about a Higgs deeming a minority government constitutional is unfounded. We'd simply get BC 2017 redux at most.

No coalition talk will come until after an election. What this guy asked for was rejected by both parties very clearly. What he suggests is not something winning parties do-- Unite to Remain flipped precisely one extremely vulnerable Tory seat in the UK in 2019. The big-tent 'Por México al Frente' and 'Va por México' coalitions both failed in 2018 and 2021. These are moves floundering parties make. The NB Liberals are not floundering, they just have horrible vote distribution, which they're attempting to undo with 'good-government moderates' and have a strong chance at doing so. How you view this as subjective, IDK.

I am not amenable to the PCs or CPC for various reasons, which are not remotely relevant to development, taxation, social policy, or electoral politics. I simply like the entertainment aspect of provincial politics.

Amalgamation would be awful for the annexed and would produce few tangible benefits for residents. Saint John can't manage the lands it annexed in the 20th century properly, let alone taking on 3/4 of Kings County's population. I have no desire to inflict Brent Harris, Ivan Court, etc. types on anyone else. All these localities are functionally governed, and AFAIK have no serious financial issues. Within the last decade Saint John was under provincial direction reminiscent of Detroit. What I would do is fully municipalize the province. Either incorporate the rural districts if populated and contiguous, or annex their lands to neighbouring municipalities. The Southeast RD had 8 segments across two counties, for example. We could probably do with fewer types. We have one regional municipality. Not needed. Villages and towns should be merged into a single type, with larger towns pushed towards city status.

[adamuptownsj]

Pictou West a PC hold-- 72.5%, 9% better than the 2021 general. Houston is likely the most secure premier in Canada. Decent NDP performance (16.5%) compared to 2021, but they held this seat for three terms in the 2000s. Liberals under 10%, voters split 2:1 PC/NDP. Greens not relevant.

[sailor734]

Originally Posted by adamuptownsj

Pictou West a PC hold-- 72.5%, 9% better than the 2021 general. Houston is likely the most secure premier in Canada. Decent NDP performance (16.5%) compared to 2021, but they held this seat for three terms in the 2000s. Liberals under 10%, voters split 2:1 PC/NDP. Greens not relevant.

Higgs should have been taking lessons from Houston for the past year or two.

[adamuptownsj]

Originally Posted by sailor734

Higgs should have been taking lessons from Houston for the past year or two.

No NB PC is going to shovel rural pork around like Houston. Different party cultures. Our Tories are bluer, our Liberals redder, and our NDP... deader. Nova Scotia has much greater continuity to the party systems/cultures of a generation ago.

Not saying the constant twinning projects are bad, I'm jealous.

[sailor734]

Just saw a CTV story with the headline “ Poverty and food insecurity surging in all provinces”

Tough headline for any government to carry into an election…..but I have to think it hurts the federal liberals the most. Voters tend to see economic conditions as national issue.