Atlantic Canadian Politics Thread

[adamuptownsj]

Originally Posted by sailor734

Telegraph Journal reporting the Jeff Carr has announced he won't be reoffering. Carr was dumped from cabinet when he opposed Higgs' position on gender policy in schools.

Anyone know if he might have federal ambitions?

Nope-- https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-b...tics-1.7127154

Not sure how he'd realize federal ambitions anyway. His only options would be

1) challenging Atwin for the F-O Liberal nomination from the right, and getting crushed
2) challenging Williamson for the NBSW Conservative nomination from the left, and getting crushed
3) running against Williamson as a Liberal in NBSW, and getting totally obliterated

Just because these red Tories aren't happy with Higgs doesn't mean they'd run as Liberals. Most of them are either going to the great pension plan in the sky (Holder, Crossman, Shepherd, Carr, Wetmore). Allain was redistricted into a VERY red new Moncton East, and Carr's seat was split between Higgs ally Mary Wilson's and what seems to be David Coon's.

Anderson-Mason is the odd one out. She was definitely on the left edge of the party and is the most likely outgoing rebel to seek office under a different banner.

I don't count Dunn in this number since her departure is either for a winnable federal seat or a return to the private sector, and she explicitly left on good terms.

I'm pretty interested in seeing how the nominations shake out, especially for the PCs and Greens. Liberals seem to be picking materially better candidates than they did in 2020. PCs have kind of a tightrope to walk. Greens have to get strong individuals (less Annamie Paul and more Mike Schreiner) but their 'moment' seems to have passed. Unless they make a big play for the North Shore, SJ Harbour, and Holt's chosen seat in Fredericton, they'll stall out at 3 seats, if not decline.

For the NDP, do they even try to run a full slate? Can they avoid running total whackos who max out at 2%? And for the PA, can they even contest 20+ ridings with Austin wearing blue?

[PoscStudent]

Originally Posted by drewber

Again, next election is 18 months away. A lot can change in that time. PP has no where to go but down and Trudeau can only regain some support he's lost

Or PP could go up and Trudeau could go down further.

[CharlotteCountyLogan]

Originally Posted by adamuptownsj

Nope-- https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-b...tics-1.7127154

Not sure how he'd realize federal ambitions anyway. His only options would be

1) challenging Atwin for the F-O Liberal nomination from the right, and getting crushed
2) challenging Williamson for the NBSW Conservative

nomination from the left, and getting crushed
3) running against Williamson as a Liberal in NBSW, and getting totally obliterated

Just because these red Tories aren't happy with Higgs doesn't mean they'd run as Liberals. Most of them are either going to the great pension plan in the sky (Holder, Crossman, Shepherd, Carr, Wetmore). Allain was redistricted into a VERY red new Moncton East, and Carr's seat was split between Higgs ally Mary Wilson's
and what seems to be David Coon's.

Anderson-Mason is the odd one out. She was definitely on the left edge of the party and is the most likely outgoing rebel to seek office under a different banner.

I don't count Dunn in this number since her departure is either for a winnable federal seat or a return to the private sector, and she explicitly left on good terms.


I'm pretty interested in seeing how the nominations shake out, especially for the PCs and Greens. Liberals seem to be picking materially better candidates than they did in 2020. PCs have kind of a tightrope to walk. Greens have to get strong individuals (less Annamie Paul and more Mike Schreiner) but their 'moment' seems to have passed. Unless they make a big play for the North Shore, SJ Harbour, and Holt's chosen seat in Fredericton,
they'll stall out at 3 seats, if not decline.

For the NDP, do they even try to run a full slate? Can they avoid running total whackos who max out at 2%? And for the PA, can they even contest 20+ ridings with Austin wearing blue?

In regard to Anderson-Mason i cannot see her running for another party. I've heard from multiple people that she has said she will never leave the PC party and I've also heard she has criticized Holt. Only way I see Anderson-Mason running again is as a Independent and that is very unlikely.

[sailor734]

and another one is done..........Daniel Allain announces he won't re-offer.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-b...ning-1.7130647

It's becoming increasingly clear that the split between the tradition PC's and the hard right social conservatives in NB is deeper than many thought

Holt and the Liberals were ahead by about 6 points in a recent poll I saw. The question is, given the PC's more efficient vote distribution, would that be enough for a Liberal majority.....or is a Liberal minority with Green support more likely?

https://globalnews.ca/news/10323119/...tentions-poll/

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by sailor734

and another one is done..........Daniel Allain announces he won't re-offer.

Avoid the carnage now. Distance himself from Higgs. Come back for the leadership convention, hoping for a win.

The Blaine/Faytene Tories are officially in trouble.

[Bishop2047]

I certainly think this election will be closer. Have a hard time seeing the liberals winning but very likely to have more seats. The Cons are no longer losing votes to the Peoples Alliance, and that will likely make a difference in some ridings.

I don't read to much into most politicians not re-offering for an election. Elections are hard and there are plenty of other jobs media like to make this a big news story but most politicians that do not re-offer are just tired of the grind (regardless of what side of the legislature they are on).

Most of us change careers/work environment every few years and politics is not as desirable as it once was (a big problem when it comes to attracting quality).

[darkharbour]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Avoid the carnage now. Distance himself from Higgs. Come back for the leadership convention, hoping for a win.

The Blaine/Faytene Tories are officially in trouble.

I think the party needs to accept that Higgs has gone too far off the deep end, and giving voice to those like Faytene isn't going to help in which is overall a very moderate Canadian society.

[lirette]

Originally Posted by Bishop2047

I certainly think this election will be closer. Have a hard time seeing the liberals winning but very likely to have more seats. The Cons are no longer losing votes to the Peoples Alliance, and that will likely make a difference in some ridings.

I don't read to much into most politicians not re-offering for an election. Elections are hard and there are plenty of other jobs media like to make this a big news story but most politicians that do not re-offer are just tired of the grind (regardless of what side of the legislature they are on).

Most of us change careers/work environment every few years and politics is not as desirable as it once was (a big problem when it comes to attracting quality).

Maybe, but when all the moderates leave at once this is a pattern that lends more to a different narrative than what you are saying. Allain announced his departure on Blaine Higgs birthday.

[adamuptownsj]

Allain's seat was redrawn 17% redder than it is now: 39-32 Liberal (45-24 in 2018). That's insurmountable. He could have theoretically ran against McKee in Moncton Centre, which went from a 39-26 Liberal seat to what's now a 39-32 PC seat. Some of that's from picking up Allain voters but not all of it. A strong Green candidate could cost McKee his seat even in a 5-point Liberal win provincewide, leaving Moncton a wash.

Under the previous map, it was a 45-35 win for Allain in 2020 and was previously won by the Liberals 47-36 in 2018.

PCs losing this seat was priced in since last April. Even Allain's overperformance wouldn't have saved it under the new lines. He's been telegraphing retirement for months.

[CharlotteCountyLogan]

How many PC incumbents is that 6? And I wouldn't be surprised to see a few more from the SJ area such as Shephard, Holder and Anderson-Mason. I wonder if any Liberals will retire such as a Chassion or a Mallet or any of the other older MLAs. All the Greens are re-offering which isn't a shock. Lots of change happening

[sailor734]

https://twitter.com/CanadianPolling/...32138550890979

Latest modeling from polling Canada......... PC support must really be spread as efficiently as possible while the Liberals are not.

[CharlotteCountyLogan]

Originally Posted by sailor734

https://twitter.com/CanadianPolling/...32138550890979

Latest modeling from polling Canada......... PC support must really be spread as efficiently as possible while the Liberals are not.

I do have my issues with that modeling. I'll be surprised if the PCs sweep the south once again.

[sailor734]

Originally Posted by CharlotteCountyLogan

I do have my issues with that modeling. I'll be surprised if the PCs sweep the south once again.

I would have to say I agree. Comments you hear and read regarding Higgs seem to have become far more negative in the past 12-18 months.

Still, I've been surprised before when my sense of public opinion has turned out to be very different from what happens on election day.

[Marty_Mcfly]

[drewber]

Originally Posted by Marty_Mcfly

These results would basically bring us back to an NDP / Liberal coalition assuming they'd be willing to form government again. I'm surprised at the increase in NDP support across the board

[sailor734]

Originally Posted by drewber

These results would basically bring us back to an NDP / Liberal coalition assuming they'd be willing to form government again. I'm surprised at the increase in NDP support across the board

I don’t think so.
Given first past the post most models suggest those levels of support would see a CPC majority of around 200 seats.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by sailor734

I don’t think so.
Given first past the post most models suggest those levels of support would see a CPC majority of around 200 seats.

Indeed. The Dippers and Libbies would vote split, leaving a clear path for a PP majority.

Usually 40% in the polls is enough for a majority in a multi-party FPTP system. The only province where PP doesn't have at least 40% is Quebec.

[Marty_Mcfly]

Originally Posted by drewber

These results would basically bring us back to an NDP / Liberal coalition assuming they'd be willing to form government again. I'm surprised at the increase in NDP support across the board

It wouldn't. I modelled this poll yesterday and while it's a tad better for the Liberals than some other polls that have come out recently, the seat count is approximately:

CPC: 195
LPC: 70
NDP: 35

EDIT: Re-modeled it again. Not as good for the Liberals as I remembered.

[darkharbour]

I could see this changing a lot before the next election, it wouldn't be the first time that an opposition party peaked in the polls too soon and then shot themselves in the foot on the way to the finish line. Basically what I'm saying is that I'm always wary of big leads when the finish line is so far away.

[sailor734]

Originally Posted by darkharbour

I could see this changing a lot before the next election, it wouldn't be the first time that an opposition party peaked in the polls too soon and then shot themselves in the foot on the way to the finish line. Basically what I'm saying is that I'm always wary of big leads when the finish line is so far away.

I don't necessarily disagree. 18 months is an eternity in politics and much could happen.

My biggest worry is that an increasingly desperate Trudeau and his NDP allies will pour billions into trying to buy votes and leave us in even worse financial shape than we are now.

Pharmacare is a classic example. Do we need help for specific categories of people without insurance and who struggle to afford needed medication? .......sure. Do we need a completely new universal entitlement program potentially costing tens of billions of new spending per year while our existing Healthcare syatem is in crisis? maybe not.