Federal Government & Politics II - Page 368

thewave46 · #**7341** Posted **Apr 19, 2024, 6:01 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

Back in 2011 everyone said the LPC was dead and the future of Canadian politics was CPC vs. NDP.. and then we once again started thinking of the LPC as the "natural governing party" when JT won in 2015. But perhaps the LPC really did die in 2011, and JT's time was just the party's "dead cat bounce".

It's a hell of a bounce. 10 years and 3 elections.

The LPC goes through cycles, but eventually congeals into something Canadians like again (or hate the Opposition more). It rebuilds its alliances into something that produces electoral success over a period (usually something like: money + city + mushy middle + loyal fringes, however that reflect on Canada of the era), then eventually loses the plot.

The mid-1980s through early 1990s was another doldrums era as the party reinvented itself. As was 2006-2014. The wilderness eras of the party.

The ending of this Trudeau era will likely portend such an outcome.

Acajack · #**7342** Posted **Apr 19, 2024, 6:05 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Antigonish

The Maritimes + Newfoundland will start the Atlantica Republic. With the right leadership and reforms we could become as good as Slovenia on the world stage! I'd rather that than be a pawn in a collapsing G7 "country"

GDP per capita is about a third less than Canada's but they're 22nd in terms of human development index and we're not that far ahead at 18th.

ssiguy · #**7343** Posted **Apr 19, 2024, 6:20 PM**

Dominic Leblanc has always been a steadfast ally of Justin.........a true lapdog in every sense of the word. I wouldn't be surprised if he was Justin's chosen successor. To exemplify how far back he goes with the Trudeau family, he actually babysat Justin when they were both kids in Ottawa................you couldn't make this stuff up.

If Justin has decided that LeBlanc is his heir apparent and the backbenchers back him up, it will be the final nail in the coffin for the Liberals. If they have ANY successor that is considered within Justin's sphere of influence, the electorate will not see it as any form of change in governance or policies. This also applies to the other potential 2 hopefuls, Freeland and Annand.

The ONLY hope they have in the next election to at least keep the Tories to a minority gov't is to get a well know person who has absolutely no connections with Trudeau and his inner circle and the clear option is Mark Carney.

kwoldtimer · #**7344** Posted **Apr 19, 2024, 6:24 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by ssiguy

Dominic Leblanc has always been a steadfast ally of Justin.........a true lapdog in every sense of the word. I wouldn't be surprised if he was Justin's chosen successor. To exemplify how far back he goes with the Trudeau family, he actually babysat Justin when they were both kids in Ottawa................you couldn't make this stuff up.

If Justin has decided that LeBlanc is his heir apparent and the backbenchers back him up, it will be the final nail in the coffin for the Liberals. If they have ANY successor that is considered within Justin's sphere of influence, the electorate will not see it as any form of change in governance or policies. This also applies to the other potential 2 hopefuls, Freeland and Annand.

The ONLY hope they have in the next election to at least keep the Tories to a minority gov't is to get a well know person who has absolutely no connections with Trudeau and his inner circle and the clear option is Mark Carney.

We've seen no suggestion of that, have we?

Acajack · #**7345** Posted **Apr 19, 2024, 6:26 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer

We've seen no suggestion of that, have we?

No, but we're not behind every closed door.

Acajack · #**7346** Posted **Apr 19, 2024, 6:28 PM**

From a Liberal perspective, Dominic wouldn't be a bad choice. He's francophone (sort of - in the same way as Justin Trudeau) but isn't from Quebec which is a plus. The Maritimes generally have a good rep across Canada, both in Quebec and the ROC. Hasn't been tainted by too much negative political stuff. Cancer survivor too if I may be crass.

MonctonRad · #**7347** Posted **Apr 19, 2024, 6:36 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Acajack

From a Liberal perspective, Dominic wouldn't be a bad choice. He's francophone (sort of - in the same way as Justin Trudeau) but isn't from Quebec which is a plus. The Maritimes generally have a good rep across Canada, both in Quebec and the ROC. Hasn't been tainted by too much negative political stuff. Cancer survivor too if I may be crass.

I would say Dominic is more than just a "sort of" francophone. He is a pretty staunch defender of Acadie, and, as a porkbarreller par excellence (almost up there with Dave Dingwall), he shows particular largesse to Acadian causes and institutions. He is closely associated with UdeM (but not MTA), and gets all his medical care at the Dumont Hospital (not the Moncton Hospital). You often see his name in association with federal contributions to the Dumont (but not TMH).

YOWetal · #**7348** Posted **Apr 19, 2024, 6:37 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Acajack

From a Liberal perspective, Dominic wouldn't be a bad choice. He's francophone (sort of - in the same way as Justin Trudeau) but isn't from Quebec which is a plus. The Maritimes generally have a good rep across Canada, both in Quebec and the ROC. Hasn't been tainted by too much negative political stuff. Cancer survivor too if I may be crass.

Politically at this point he seems like a very safe choice. He could hold the Quebec fortress and probably gets back most of the Atlantic seats. Maybe in NS, PEI NFLD it won't go as far but if he;s in spitting distance of being Prime Minister the idea of a local boy being elected will go a long way. Unlike the other fluent French speakers he can actually hold his own in an English debate also. he seems like an easy bet to win 100 seats.

Now if you want to swing for the fences you can go with Carney or some non-politician but I'd bet 20 seats is more likely that 120 for him. If he made a massive break from everything the Liberals have done moving entirely to the center all that would seem to do would be bleed support to NDP and Greens. Is anybody centrist voting liberal in 2025?

MonctonRad · #**7349** Posted **Apr 19, 2024, 6:41 PM**

Yes, Dominic would be a decent placeholder PM if JT decides to take his walk in the snow. He would still lose the next election, but he would preserve a lot of Liberal strength in Quebec and Atlantic Canada. Dominic is no Kim Campbell. He's a pretty wily politician and would prevent a complete party collapse in the next election.

thewave46 · #**7350** Posted **Apr 19, 2024, 6:42 PM**

I suspect being John Turner for awhile is the hardest aspect of selling the job.

Unless that's the goal for Leblanc? Kind of a Bob Rae trajectory?

Still thinking that Mélanie Joly ends up as the LPC leader at some point.

YOWetal · #**7351** Posted **Apr 19, 2024, 6:51 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by thewave46

I suspect being John Turner for awhile is the hardest aspect of selling the job.

Unless that's the goal for Leblanc? Kind of a Bob Rae trajectory?

Still thinking that Mélanie Joly ends up as the LPC leader at some point.

The odds seem very long for anyone to turn it around but the recent Canadian history has been people turning down jobs because of hopelessness and opportunities presented. In 2006 it seemed like Liberals were done but with 2008 any of the heavyweights would have probably had a chance which Dion of course had no chance. In 2019 it seems like anyone stronger than Scheer pulls out a win. Now this is totally different context for sure but Wynn ended up winning when nobody wanted that job with similar poll numbers.

shreddog · #**7352** Posted **Apr 19, 2024, 7:22 PM**

Some Saturday in fall of 2024, at the LPC leadership convention, Dominic Leblanc becomes the new leader of the LPC's.
On Monday, in ever news media in Canada, the CPC place the following ad:

Quote:

In 2018 Dominic LeBlanc was found in conflict of interest by th Ethics Commisioner because as Fishery Minister he granted a lucrative fishing license to a family business.
He's just like JT, but without the nice hair.
Haven't we had enough of Liberal leader's thinking only of themselves and not you!

Leblanc would be the dead the water as that is just one of many pork barreling shitshows he's been involved with. The CPC would have a field day with him. LINK

thewave46 · #**7353** Posted **Apr 19, 2024, 7:27 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by shreddog

Leblanc would be the dead the water as that is just one of many pork barreling shitshows he's been involved with. The CPC would have a field day with him.

The point would be to prevent the LPC from losing completely.

That, and he's not Trudeau. It limits the damage from the taint of Trudeau that drives people up the wall.

Maybe he even helps retain the Montreal fortress against the BQ.

shreddog · #**7354** Posted **Apr 19, 2024, 7:46 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by thewave46

The point would be to prevent the LPC from losing completely.

That, and he's not Trudeau. It limits the damage from the taint of Trudeau that drives people up the wall.

Maybe he even helps retain the Montreal fortress against the BQ.

again, I say that the CPC would have a field day with Leblanc as being “JT with bad hair”. Personally I don’t think he’d be able to save anything but himself.

lio45 · #**7355** Posted **Apr 19, 2024, 7:51 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by thewave46

The point would be to prevent the LPC from losing completely.

That, and he's not Trudeau. It limits the damage from the taint of Trudeau that drives people up the wall.

Maybe he even helps retain the Montreal fortress against the BQ.

In terms of "he's not JT", Leblanc is one of the weakest choices possible, only better than Sasha and Xavier (who's old enough to be electable soon, right?)

thewave46 · #**7356** Posted **Apr 19, 2024, 7:55 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by lio45

In terms of "he's not JT", Leblanc is one of the weakest choices possible, only better than Sasha and Xavier (who's old enough to be electable soon, right?)

The LPC is advertising the John Turner role.

One doesn't have the luxury of being terribly picky about the candidates in this scenario.

P'tit Renard · #**7357** Posted **Apr 19, 2024, 8:02 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by lio45

In terms of "he's not JT", Leblanc is one of the weakest choices possible, only better than Sasha and Xavier (who's old enough to be electable soon, right?)

Melanie Joly probably fits in between.